Morning Post - P3? - Mini Rant

Deal with me this am, I have a lot to say.

Not quite Konichiwa time just yet (I'll get to the P3 discussion below - as this post grows and grows).

They will not go down without a fight. I expect the funny business to continue for another month or so and then their guns will be empty. They will be out of bullets. The destruction of your future, mine and this country's will be nearly complete. Steve reminded me of this Denninger video this morning. I believe the scenario Karl lays out has a better than 50% chance of playing out, so you need to start paying attention.

You see, the Fed and our government are like a children that habitually lie. They are so deep in a layer of lies so long and thick that they can't even discern the truth now. Or, if they can see thru to the truth, what is real is so broken that it can not be fixed anyway, so why not continue the charade to the end?

The bottom line is they screwed up. They have been screwing up for years and this mess possibly all began with the creation of the Fed many years ago (and might end with the destruction of the Fed). They fixed their buddies problems not ours. They sacrificed everything to save the banks and not the country. Now, they are in a position that they MUST lie their way out of this thing and hope like hell they don't get caught and that time allows this all to blow over.

Unfortunately the scams will not lead to recovery. They will bring CHANGE you will believe in. Financial CHANGE that has a great possibility of destroying the world as we know it today. You see, with P3, it is not a game anymore. It is not some glorious downdraft in the market we can all revel in. This is some serious shit. This is a market collapse that will wipe everything out GLOBALLY. The only viable solution I see will be to just wipe all debts off of the books, call it good and start over.

If you can't see it coming you need to wake up. I am not a fear monger doomsdayist that is hell bent on this happening. I am a person with common sense that can see the destruction in the road ahead. The numbers don't add up. The lies and manipulation and stealing and cronyism are all so rampant. But you just go on living your life in your comfy 3 bedroom home with your June Cleaver wife. Keep watching the MSM and believe what you hear. It is time to wake up. This is serious. More serious than we all may realize. I am scared as hell and you should be as well.

I am going to ramp back up the Irreverent Blog and cover some other atrocities that I see going on on the political/fascist front that you may be missing in the MSM coverage. I will also be promoting the likes of Peter Schiff and Rand Paul for election. We need CHANGE and the first place to start is to get representatives that are real world people that have a lick of sense and are not owned and run like the puppets of today. Special interest must DIE!

And another thing - Let me say this about all of the "economic" indicators reported on like housing and manufacturing that CNBS pumps on a weekly basis- THEY ARE BULLSHIT. Sure, the market reacts and you should take them into consideration short term, but as for reality, they are reporting the near term "truths" that look like recovery or a bottoming process but are not. They are a shelf where everything is pausing. IMO, housing is totally dead. It is a ghost still walking the earth. A "residual haunting" they would call it on Ghost Hunters. Manufacturing will (eventually) come back! Why? Cause with the massive wage deflation we are going to experience, the trade imbalances with other nations and the need for jobs it has to. We are no longer a credit driven nation of consumers. Time to suck it up folks. Times are a changing.

Sorry for that, on to the charts -

In a nutshell - the market might have topped, but I see this still as 4 of 3 of C or 4 of C (still a distant possibility of 2 of C and .... see below).

SPX Daily Chart - Indicators have rolled over. This fall should happen now and be a little more severe. The daily's are toast now. Why would I even consider a whipsaw? The sheeple. the dumb ass sheeple. Boy is this ever a que for them to come rushing in to the market. It never fails. Maybe they have. As I reported last night, equity mutual fund outflows are a happening and the faucet is running wide open.

For those of you that do not know about support points and retracements and have intentions of trading this fall down - PAY ATTENTION. The fall first must get thru the daily BB 20ma at 1038. that coincides with a lower trendline. It then has retracement points from the rise off of 990 at 1046, 1036 and 1025. Then the gap at 1017. Then the 50ma at 1008.

Now you start getting into larger retracements off of the bottom. The 38.2% is 999.61, 50% is 974.60 and 61.8% is 949.58. Now, I have a love affair with that 949 (actually 947) number, so be prepared for me to start harping on a reversal if (when) we get there (call it a psychic connection).

The 60m charts are not worth reporting on, but if you would like to look, HERE it is. I have one thing to say about this chart and P2. Look on the left - see the targets that have been there for quite some time? 1078 has been breached. That means in my book that P2 can mow officially be in the book. Yes, I will now say that a top CAN POSSIBLY BE IN.

/ES 60m -

You can see the A wave down form the 1 or 3 of C top in the yellow channel. You can see the B wave up in the pink wedge. Welcome to C down of 2 or 4 of C (or 1 of 1 of P3 (there, I said it)).

Targets are above under the daily section. I will be possibly looking for a back test of the B wedge but doubt it. There is no form to this mess yet, but when it happens I'll let you know. Price continues to flirt with the bull market top line (thick blue line) which is important IMO. A decisive break of this line with authoriti will get my attention.

That is enough for now. GL Trading!

Morning Post

So, do you think the Fed will have any surprises today? I don't. How about the people that say the Fed non surprise is priced in? What are the odds of CNBS calling a victory for the investor and following the marching orders of Uncle Ben further declaring the recession is over and that all is well?

I'm not gonna speculate much today cause of the Fed. All I know is that the market is and has been overbought for sometime. Of the last 29 weeks 21 have been up. Of the last 11 weeks 9 have been up. The market is up 61% since the March low (that would be cramming 6 years of average SPX returns in 7 months - so you can say that one month roughly equals one year at this pace). Of course as long as they continue to funnel funds thru the back door (and out of your pockets) into the market and as long as they continue to pummel the dollar like Wallstreetpro2 with a Louisville slugger the ramp job will continue to run.

I am looking for limited upside as the market continues to consolidate as it did in early and late August. I will be looking for the tell tale triangle to form as it has so many times before on this run up. Upside should (should) be limited given the position of the indicators and BB's on the 60m, daily and weekly charts.

/ES 10m chart - Clear wedge formation to the top of B in what I think is an ABC corrective (although weaker than most of us anticipated) for either wave 2 or 4 of C up. at this time I am not expecting a double zig-zag in this corrective, but I (again) would have thought this correction would have had some meat to it. If the wedge plays out a good target would be somewhere near the 1050 low.

The upper wedge line is good support. So is the lower trendline of the long channel up for either 1 or 3 of C. The best support is the combination of back door funds, the beaten down dollar and the cheer leading of CNBS.

GL Trading (you'll need it).

Morning Post

Tough call this morning. The channel on the /ES was broken pre-market. The levitation continues. My Market top on 10/12 call is possibly in tact. I'm guessing the mutual funds eventually get one more push to print some really nice QE statements, then all bets are off.

As I have been saying that channel down was part of a 2 or 4 of either 1 or 3 of C Not sure since I am questioning where B actually is. Time will be the only real difference as the two possibilities for B are only 14 points apart in price. Looks like the move off of 991 SPX was a 3 the more I look at it.

Daily SPX Chart - My conundrum is that the channel down possibly completing the 2 or 4 has broken up, but the daily indicators are rolling over, the daily SPX price is at the top of the wedge and the upper BB's are providing some resistance. Are the daily indicators gonna whipsaw and remain embedded? That would make for a nice set up to start P3 in a week or two. MACD hist is trending down RSI is over 70 and looks to want to fall. S Sto got the bear cross going on. ADX falling. CPC very bullish but does not have a divergence yet.

60m SPX Chart - 60m indicators are falling but showing signs of a reversal before bottoming out. There is still room for them to fall and embed.

/ES 60m - You can clearly see the yellow channel down from the 1071 top that some are questioning as the "top". The dark blue line is the top of the P2 rising wedge. Notice these 60m indicators are overbought and appear to be turning south.



Here is a longer view of the /ES 60m wave 1 or 3 channel and the 2 or 4 correction.



I'm gonna go against the manipulators and my better judgment and call for a larger corrective here or more consolidation with limited upside. The Two rising wedges ending and the position of the indicators scream NEAR TERM top and a larger corrective is coming. Now this has happened several times, and several times we all have been wrong. I just don't thing the corrective is big enough yet and might take one more leg down to play out. I'll be looking for the all too familiar triangle to form for the final push to the top. At this time I'm still tentatively short in SDS UUP and VXX with 5% stops in each. If the market should show any strength, I will be exiting shorts quickly and waiting patiently for more downside.

Is the top in? I do not think so. The Fed still has ink and paper. We still have GS running the show. There are green shoots everywhere. The dollar is staying nice and devalued. Regulation is rampant. All of that combined says slightly more upside. I'm on record looking for an external event to set the market on its path to righteousness. More talk about a war to end the recession/depression is perculating. Middle East tensions, oil, China, Russia, Israel - Swine Flu - something is brewing. Dan put up a nice chart on this (SPX 300 anyone?).

P3 should announce it presence loudly. Don't worry about missing the top. It is not that big a deal. You'll be able to get out and have PLENTY of time to play the short side ride. I will refrain from playing any upside from here since SPX is above the rising wedge. Extreme caution right now should be exercised as IMO is is dangerous for both sides up here. This depression is far from over. Welcome to the new Japan.

Koniciwa Bitches!

GL trading.

Morning Post

I trust everyone had a good weekend and is ready for some downward action in the market. I about lost my lunch when I saw the /ES over the weekend. A nice ramp up to 1071 combined with a few manipulation posts from ZH made me want to beat the dogs (I did not of course - and you never should either). Fortunately all the ramp jobs did was complete the triangle (target 1047).

I believe we are in either 1 or 3 of C up in the SPX. There is only a difference of around 14 points in the counts, so it is not that big a difference. That said, this is either the beginning of 2 or 4 of 1 or 3 of C. IMO this is some sort of 3 down right now. Correctives will usually cover 38% minimally, so the fibs for this fall 1043, 1033 1023 with the gap at 1018 re some good numbers to look at. If this fall should break 991 low and super support area, we have to begin to look at different counts all together. (Note: that statement could be a early warning that I think there might be a bunch of upside to come, but the jury is still deliberating that one.)

The most important thing to point out in the chart below is that over the weekend price broke back into the larger dominant blue rising wedge formation. Some will call a top and that was a throw over of the wedge and that the top is in. Possible, yes, reality, no.



SPX Daily Chart - Pretty clear the MACD histogram is leveling off, S Sto has a bull cross and is embeding and RSI may have topped out with a nice divergence to price all which lead to a daily indicator top. Those lead to more meaningful pullbacks. At this time I like the 1043 to 1033 range and would expect price to form some sort of triangle that would be characteristic of a 2 or 4 wave.

The VIX has completed the dead cat bounce and is consolidating just under the dominant down trend line. I believe the VIX will get a good pop here possibly to get above the 30 number. CPC has apparently bottomed (again). TRAN has reached its upper bear market trendline and is reversing. COMP has breached the upper bear market trendline, but it is at the upper wedge line. INDU at resistance. All around things appear to be possibly beginning some sort of topping process.

Let's all wish Little Shanky a happy 9th birthday today!

GL trading.

Morning Post - Broad Overview Of The Market

EOM is coming. Opex Friday, so some of the games will end today. Maybe the 58% run up in the market will decide to take a breather as well. Valuation - shmaluation. For those of you that don't know, the charts below show why most believe this P2 market correction is coming to an end. For those that do know, sorry, but I have had several emails requesting this overview.

/ES Daily 2 years - Let's step back and look at the big picture. What we see is the larger channel down (gray) and the current wedge (blue) approaching the top line of the channel (bear market top line). You also see the gap in the /es at 1104 to 1109 (pink line). The 50% to 61.8% fib retracements for the fall are the sky blue box from 1127 to 1235. So where the blue rising wedge meets upper channel resistance (bear market top line) and there is a unfilled gap in the neighborhood you get a very likely point for a reversal. Adding to the formation of the price you can plainly see the daily indicators are overbought with the MACD about to crack the uptrend line (yellow). Volume is also beginning to show signs of life.



/ES - The wedge - The blue rising wedge marks the move up off of the bottom. You can clearly see the process of narrowing price movement as it consolidates in the end. Here you can see the gap/top trendline juncture around September 24th thru the 29th. This coincides nicely with my call for the EOM statement prints then a possible fall.



/ES 60m - The wedges in the wedge - There are now three wedges. The larger blue, the intermediate light blue and the one now being formed by the lower yellow line that is possibly breaking down. I did not think the upper blue wedge line would be breached. I believe this is a throw over of the top lune of that wedge. Price now faces support form this trendline and might need a push to get back thru.



SPX Daily chart - Still in a battle with the upper trendline and bollinger band. The daily S Sto gave a sell signal late yesterday. RSI may have peaked (and will set a nice long divergence if it does). MACD histogram has lost some steam. Retracement levels for the fall are 1043, 1033 and 1023. Strong support area in the 990 range. I am not mentioning the fibs for the larger fall cause there is no reason to discuss anything below the support area at this time.



Have a great weekend. I'll be throwing a birthday parts for my soon to be 9 year old son and getting whipped by a bunch of kids in a nerf gun war tonight. Enjoy some football (nice to watch Ga. Tech get whipped last night by the thugs from Miami - note to Techies, the new offensive system will never win you an ACC championship - NEVER!). I'll update as many charts as possible this weekend and possibly get to the posts on Gold, Oil, Dollar and Nat gas that I have been meaning to get to.

GL trading.

Morning Post

OPEX week continues to baffle. I hate 'em. Bull mode persists. What I thought was a rollover channel has morphed into a rising wedge. Wave C of the corrective is killing the bears that are getting more impatient every day. This has happened from every top since 750 on the SPX. Disbelief and agony are reflected all over the place as the bulls enjoy their moment in the sun.

We are either in 1 of C or 3 of C as I have been saying. I did not think the market could break the trendlines above yesterday, but was proven wrong. The bush hogs have come thru and cleared the path, with the only question being is this 1 or 3 of C. My targets for my 60m chart continue to be 1078 for 61.8 of A and 1126 for 100% of A. That should be the range (barring the count is right).

Missing the run and investors wanting to pile in has been a talked about a lot these past two weeks. That is normal for a topping scenario. I was disappointed when the upper wedge-lines for all but the DOW were cracked yesterday. Sorry, did not think that would happen. I shorted with SDS at 1060 SPX when it hit the trendline and SDS also touched it's (now former) all time low at 40.38.

Daily SPX chart - You can see the large blue rising wedge. The fibs for a fall are 1038, 1029 and 1020. A massive support area persists around 990. WHAT IS KEY HERE is that price has blown thru the upper BB. While this does not predict an imminent fall, it certainly hints at either severe bullishness (if we are in a 3 - soon to be 4 of 3 of C) or a topping (possibly ending 1 of C). The Daily indicators suggest we have room to run, but not much.

60m SPX chart - You see the targets mentioned above on the left that have been there for over a month now. The only thing that is new is as of yesterday morning, before the open, I am now questioning where B actually is. The indicators (which on the 60m don't really mean crap anymore) all show the uptrend as nearing a top and overbought conditions.

WEEKLY SPX chart - Now let me bring the Weekly into play. Look at one thing - the RSI. When the RSI crosses the red line (barring some sort of embedment) the top will be in. The weekly indicators are embedded for goodness sakes. I guess the P/E ratio reflects this, hugh?

/ESU9 10m - Open interest is DOA. The yellow channel that we followed for a week finally broke down and then the rally hit. That has me leaning to this being a 3 of a 3 with a 4 and 5 to come. I was amazed when the upper trendline was breached (esp after I finally entered a short trade). Throw over top anyone? Any one? Bueller? Bueller? That is what I am hoping for. The gray line is the upper wedge line. The red line is the 50% line of the larger channel off of 667.



/ESU9 30m - Here you can see the two channels that have dominated trade for the past two weeks.



I am going to work out a new format for the morning post that gives a bit more data so be looking for that. I would appreciate suggestions from you as how to improve the Morning Post, so please email or leave in the comment box.

GL Trading!

The End Should Be Near

Updated Daily Indicator Chart. This thing will spew all over its self sooner than later. Look, the manipulators can continue the run up, but from here to China everyone knows that the accounting shenanigans and falsified economic numbers (like reporting unemployment as less than 10% when it is really over 16%) are driving a bullshit rally that will fail eventually. Aren't you tired of this yet? I sure am.

Now, let me clarify this. I'm not calling this as the end of P2 here (yet). Remember I have been begging for a descent correction to reset the lower trendline and then one final pop to the top. IMO a blow off top to take out the upper trendline is unlikely.

Chart viewed better HERE.

Morning Post - It's Wedging (Whatever That Means)

Someone get out the defibrillator. The /ESU9 needs life support. On zero volume in the /ESU9 keeps acting like the little train the could as it climbs the wall of worry to higher highs despite very few investors being present.

Daily SPX chart - Poking a tail thru the upper channel line. Trading (once again) near the upper BB. S Sto possibly about to bear cross or at least topping (embed is possible). RSI still moving up, but not with authority.

60m SPX chart - Topped out again with nice divergences all over the place.

The question, is SPX in a 1 of C or 3 of C or a simple channel topping out the rising wedge of the run? If this is 1 of C we're at some good resistance points. If 3 of C then 1050 to 1089 is the target range. Based on the upper BB and trendlines and the height of the indicators this run is ending or will end very soon. Fibs for the pull back (at this time - I'm tired of raising fibs again) 1031, 1024 and 1016 (at the gap).

/ESU9 - Not sure who's buying it up, but based on volume there are no sellers. It has been obvious that when volume spikes it is sellers coming in. They are out there, but getting them to participate is another thing. The top hot pink trendline is the wedge top line. That SHOULD NOT BE BROKEN! I'm not saying it can't be as it only represents a position near the 50% line of the larger channel. The hot pink wedge is worth about 20 points if it is to crack. The light blue trendlines are a possible new channel that IMO shows the market is possibly rolling over. Look at the open interest line on the LT /ESU9 chart. Mind boggling.

Given the 60m indicators topping (again) and the position of the daily indicators I'd have to say that upside is possible but limited. I'll vote for a flat to down day today and go against the manipulators and HAL 9000.

Note - I received a record number of emails yesterday asking about the top of P2 and is it in. IMO it is not in. If you look at the daily /ES chart below, you can see the larger wedge that is what I hope is the final formation of this rise. When the lower light blue channel line breaks, we can talk about P2 being confirmed, but not till then.

/ESU9 - 15m chart


/ESU9 - 60m chart



/ESU9 - Daily chart (Funny but we're all fretting over that little pink blob in the upper right corner.)

Morning Post

OK, I hate head fakes. Can't stand 'em. I thought the breakdown yesterday would be a near term top, but blew it. I also thought the back test of the channel and a strike of the 50% line of the larger channel would have been significant, but it was not either. Stockcharts being down did not help my cause. I did leave myself a few outs on the call as I noted the daily indicators we're not primed for a turn and that we could be in what I think is either a 4 or 5 of C up or on the other hand this could be just the ending of 1 of 3 of C up as well (at this time I prefer the 1 of C ending count). I just hate being wrong. Note: the early August triangle target of 1051 has been met now (see 60m SPX chart).

We might be forming a new channel on the /ES as it might be rolling over. My target range has been entered as 1050 on the SPX was topped. Still roughly a month to go till my top date and some room left to get to 1121.

No stockcharts today as those lame suckers were down all day yesterday. The daily RSI tried to turn yesterday where I thought it would, but turned slightly positive in the afternoon. MACD got a confirming bull cross and the histogram is bulging like some kid watching Megan Fox. S Sto is topping and can embed, but I still do not think it will. ADX buy line has turned south finally. The upper trendline on the SPX chart is being tested again. I hate to say that there is another way to draw the channel, but I am not going there. 60m ADX put in a perfect head fake yesterday. Volume is still disappointing.

I'm of the opinion this is some sort of blow off top to end 3 of C. Up over 6% in the last week on ZERO fundamentals and the surrounding economic environment has to give something back soon. The breakdown of the channel IMO says the market is putting in a near term top. The SPX appears to be possibly wedging with this being a C touch. This can be seen on my 60m SPX chart and the longer term /ES chart below. What I think could possibly happen is one more move to the lower trendline of the /ES channel and one last blow off top in early October. That is my dream scenario.

/ESU9 chart below shows the breakdown and back test of the yellow channel we have been following. What is now in the picture is the dark blue trendline that is the upper trendline of the larger wedge near 1060 (the original GS target for the market top). The sky blue channel is just a thought right now, but shows the potential rollover happening. Maybe I was just a day or so early with my call of a pullback. We'll see.

Fibs below are 1027, 1020 and 1013. Support areas include 1035 to 1025. Lower bb on the 60m is 1035. 1026 is the 50ma on the 60m.

I plan on doing an update on Oil, Gold, UNG and the dollar today in a post for each.

GL trading.



Daily /ESU9 - You can see the larger wedge formation where price is nearing the top blue trendline. What I really want you to look at is the VOLUME.

The /ESU9 Channel Back Test

Stockcharts is really pissing me off this morning. Nothing is updating and I feel a little lost. I have TOS as a back up thank goodness. Notice TWO things 1) the back test and 2) the coincidental hit of the 50% channel line (red) of the larger channel formation. The dailys could continue to run up and will if HAL 9000 and a few fat fingered traders get to geeked up on some 5hr energy, but they look to be turning or at least trying to turn IMO. Keep an eye on things.

GL trading.

Link to Santelli Rant this AM . - What Demonstrations?

Embedding ability was disabled by request.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8ANCD-Ykk4

Morning - Let's Set Up Another Fall Shall We?

Ah, to what degree will this fall be? Let the prognostications begin. The really screwy volume on Friday was bothersome. The /ESU9 channel that I have shown you over the past week or so has finally cracked (and cracked with authority). The VIX has completed the dead cat bounce and back test of the massive falling wedge.

You know me, one step at a time. Don't get ahead of yourself and look like an idiot making bold and brash statements (LOL, that was a joke). Let's just start with the retracements for the last run up, then some S/R work, then look for a lower low below 991 (then we can begin to talk about a major fall). They have had an uncanny ability to turn each fall into sucessive short squeases. I'm thinking the dollar will be the ultimate key to P3's arrival.

The big question right now is, is this just a 4 of 5 down with the 5th and final wave up to top out the ABC and P2, is this just another leg in a double zig-zag, is the just 4 of 3 of C or is this the big one? The form of the waves will be a good clue as to the potential depth of the fall. On to the charts.

SPX Daily - The daily indicators appear to want to roll over (somehow SC blew up and erased this chart and it needs to be rebuilt). Bottom line is that with this near parabolic 5.75% run up (on ZERO fundamentals), the weeklys so overbought and the daily SPX trading at it's upper BB with the upper channel line adding to resistance (not to mention a plethora of other issues giving pressure down) this fall may have some momo.

Daily fibs are 1025, 1019 and 1013 with major support zone at 980 area. If the last bottom at 991 gets breached, then we can talk about a more significant move south, but not till then. First lower trendline (purple) if breached will break the near term downtrend. Then the gap at 1018 and the 1015 support. Then you have the lower blue channel line, then the 991 low and then support and the road block at 980. Keep an eye on all of those. With each support taken out the fall may gain strength which it will need to get thru 980 (also 38% fib for the whole run from 667). Also look at what the lower BB does.

SPX 60m chart - Big negative divergences everywhere. I am not a fan of the 60m as having any meaning right now as the last time they fell for a month the market rallied from 908 to 980.

/ESU9 Daily - The daily /ES chart below simply shows the orderly channel patterns it has followed and to a good degree within the 75% and 50% channel lines of the larger channel (red lines)



/ESU9 60m - Clearly the channel is broken down. As soon as I ID a stable pattern for the fall I'll post it.



GL trading.

Morning Post

As the channel churns away! Will it end soon? Absofreakinglutely it will! But this is not the top just yet IMO. It should be as simple as watching for the /ESU9 channel to break down.

SPX Daily Chart - I blew this one up last night and reworked it. You'll see the new upper channel in blue that I believe has the market captive along with the upper BB and they will keep it that way for some time to come. Upside from here at this time is limited (depending on what GS and HAL 9000 want to do of course).

SPX 60m Chart - Indicators severely over bought here with several nice divergences. This chart shows the larger channel that had developed as the roll over of the market continues as the climb to infinity and beyond is running out of steam. You will see the new market top trendline above. IMO there is not much more room to climb.

NASDAQ Daily Chart - Yes, I chart more than the SPX, I just share the others with you when necessary. This chart really shows the consolidation in the top of the wedge well. The bear market top trendline is right above price right now. What I'd like to see here is the possibility of the final divergence in RSI playing out very soon given the severe rise in price, low volume and the positions of several of the indicators. I am not buying the RSI break of the downtrend line. There is resistance above at the 50% retrace point and a resistance line near 2167.

/ESU9 - Churning Channel grinding the bears into permadust. Are all the bears dead? Volume would say every investor is dead (see the blue box). I think JPS and GS played toss with SPY yesterday as the rest of the world took the day off. The /ESU9 is trading at the larger channel 50% line which should add some resistance to the move up.



SPX fib for the retracement of this climb are 1023, 1017 and 1011. I am getting tired of moving fibs up so it better turn soon, and I think it will. Runs like these have to have a pressure release and that valve will pop soon. 1018 to 1026 on the /ES would be a good starting point. I do not see SPX going over the upper channel line or 1050. The daily indicators still look strong, so do not be surprised to see a little more of this fundamentalless, TARP driven, BS rally. Next week the bears get revenge (and more top callers come out).

Please remember the victims and their families of 9/11 today. I believe the 9/11 Commission Report was crap, and I support further investigation into the events surrounding 9/11.

GL trading.

Morning Post

Anyone care to hear that the markets set new highs yesterday? Any one care to hear that the /ESU9 put in a perfect double top overnight at 1038.75? Funny now that most counts match mine now. Nothing like having EWI (and some others that will remain nameless) bow to their daddy Shanky's count. (Now get on your knees). Remember I don't truly count the squiggles and such. I play TA first using broad and short market formations and indicators and THEN marry that to EWT principles. Oh, and the big secret, trust in the manipulators (never bet against the house playing with HAL 9000). So the ABC correction has new life as I see it. My target date of 10/12 is in tact and target range of 1050 to 1121 in tact.

On to the markets -

Stockcharts is still down, so no charts from them this am. One simple chart.

/ESU9 - THE CHANNEL. I have pointed to it as your guide for several days now. It needed a little adjustment Monday, but it is solid and there. The other thing that I have told you to watch is the trendline above the daily RSI. Market is closing in on that, so look for a potential turn there. The other other thing is the 50 and 75% lines inside the larger channel on the /ES. 1038.75 on the /ES almost touched the 50% line which is close enough for government work IMO. The daily indicators still look bullish (watch RSI). SPX is in the resistance zone established at the last top.

I can see this as ending a 1 of 3 of C the way the daily indicators are trendling and possibly setting up a 2 down, thus further setting up the indicators for a 3 of C up when the dailys bottom (that is in a dream perfect world scenario). This all appears improbable when looking at the weeklys (but not the monthlys).

Remember I have been begging for a larger pullback to set divergences on the weeklys and then the final sucker run to the top. This is still a possibility, but looking less likely. I have also been a staunch proponent of something "external" happening to rip the market away from the manipulators grasp to begin P3. When the fall starts, you will know it. It will be brutal and I am speculating at least two market closures on the way down. Investors know the fall is coming. they experienced the last fall and will not hesitate to head for the gates this time.

So look for a 2 wave to begin soon. To what degree? 1015 to 1009 are the current retracements. I'll be looking for Some sort of triangle or ABC to form soon.

This weekend I'll put some charts together with targets of the potential top if it should occur.

GL trading today.

Morning Post

Really tough call today as the indicators say there is more upside, but my gut is telling me this run is topping. If we are in P3 you have two options here. Either we are completing 5 of 2 of 1 of 3 and the dreaded wave 1 of 3 of 1 of 3 is about to start or this is the end of 1 of C of the corrective P2 pattern. Not really sure which option I prefer. I have leaned and won thus far with the manipulators, but with the news and pure economic facts that things are as bad as they should be and not as bad as CNBS would have you believe, I am more worried about significant downside risk than any sort of continued bull run.

60m SPX chart - SPX has completed the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1038 to 991 and is entering the zone where it consolidated for roughly two weeks at the end of August and the beginning of September. Indicators on this chart are topping.

Daily SPX chart - Divergences continuing to get worse as indicators tell of an impending fall.

Here is the 15m SPX chart with fibs for the next pullback (1013, 1009 and 1005) if we top here and the gap surrounding 1017. This chart also shows the possible I II count that EWT may have us in on P3 down very well as the two channels for each move are very clear. Watch for the 25ma on this chart to break as a sell signal (charts are real time at stockcharts).



/ESU9 - The channel of the past several trading days broke down in pre-market and is trying to break back in.



GL trading today.

Morning Post - Up (but I expect a turn soon)

Good morning. Welcome to a short work week (for some of you). Minis are up and my dual monitors are down (I'm down).

SPX 60m Chart - This is my favorite chart right now giving the best depiction of what's going on. SPX breaking out of the channel down sucking the life out of the shorts and all of the top callers. Indicators here are bullish but toppy (topped out S Sto and CCI). 1021 is a 61.8% retracement of the last fall.

SPX Daily Chart - RSI stopped at 50 and is turning up. S Sto bull cross on Friday. MACD histogram going up now.

The only two things I see that may stop the run are the Daily RSI has an established trendline above it and the 60m indicators are toppy. Those are two slim hopes (and slim may have left town). The weekly chart is very toppy, so if you are a bull you need to heed the caution signs flashing all over the weekly chart.

/ESU9 - RSI, MACD and S Sto all very toppy. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last fall. 1028 is the 78.6% retracement. You can clearly see the channel action over the past few weeks and the channel it is in now. I would like for you to notice how the larger GSEC channel 75% line (red lower trendline) is acting as a nice floor for this move.



/ESU9 Daily chart - Notice the divergence in RSI and the embedded MACD. I added the yellow box which is the 50% to 61.8% fib retracement for the whole move.



Add it all up and I have to say it is gonna be a flat to up day today given where the indicators are positioned. The weeklys are seriously toppy, so this run should not last much longer.

GL trading today (and wish me luck getting my second monitor back).

A Quick Look At The Minis And The Monthly SPX

I got a buy signal on the daily SPX earlier. This is not major move or anything as the buy signal occurs in an already bloated market. Several indicator trendlines held or yielded some before they turned back up. I was one of the few that told you to watch daily RSI at the 50.The only reason I am pointing this out is that shorties might be suspect to one more mini squeeze in this irrational market correction.

The actions of the market overall are very suspect. I am in cash now and will wait for some better signals as to more sustained direction develop. As for the count? I'm still at this time looking at 4 of 1 of P3, but that is not official as any other count is most likely bullshit as no one can count this quintuple zig-zag manipulated crap. I'd watch 1013 on the /ESU9 if I were you. I still like my ABC to 1050 - 1121. We'll see.

Based on this monthly chart sure looks like there is some room to run based on the indicators positions and trendlines being busted all over. Permabears, the monthly RSI is stalling and the Fast Sto has a hook as well as the 200ma is now acting as resistance. Hell, one can actually look at this chart and say it is all over and a new bull run is in based on lots of technicals in it, but we all know that is not the truth.

Short term /ESU9 - Top trendline of the channel is holding and it appears to be consolidating in a triangle between the upper channel line and the lower 75% line of the GSEC channel.



Daily /ESU9 - You can see the long term channel and wedge here really well with a couple of lower support points. The black line is the only GAP i could locate. It will be am important number in the future IMO. 900 - 906.




UPDATE - Lower channel busted and 1013 taken out. Let's see what the counters do now with wave 4 busting into wave 1's turf. I think that sound you just herd was 1,000 protractors hitting the wall simultaneously. Scramble time baby. Oh, that buy signal I got. Yeah baby!


GL trading.

Morning Post - Flat To Down As 5 Churns Out

Good morning. Holiday weekend, more bank failures expected and the onslaught of college football. I could not think of a better combination.

On to the markets. Simply amazing the rebound from the glorious jobs number. /ES went from 1007 to 1000 in a minute and three minutes later it is at 1009. After all of the rumors this week about banks and the relevant fact that we can assume at least one bank in Georgia should bite the dust this afternoon, I am a little leery of the possibilities of something nasty happening after the close. Is the climb in gold someone applying some sunscreen to their portfolio?

Daily SPX chart - RSI bouncing off of 50, but Full and Slow Sto still in nose dive. MACD still rolling over but Histogram appears to be losing some steam and there is a trendline to cross right under the signal line. ADX whipsawed yesterday. The bears should not like the RSI and MACD hist moves as they possibly foretell of a pause in the fall. COMP, DOW and SPX are all sitting on various trendlines of what I believe to be significant. Mainly COMP as it has made it to the lower wedge support line.

60m SPX Chart - - You can see the channel down to back test the last triangle. All the indicators are green. They can embed, but given the more than 61.8% retracement of the run from 974 to 1039 maybe the dip is being bought up by the bots.

Here is the 60m /ESU( chart from this morning. Three things to notice. A) The channel that has formed. B) The indicators in relation to the top trendline say toppy. C) A 38.2% retracement of the fall has been made. This move now qualifies and looks like a completed ABC for a 4th wave corrective up. If the fall from 1038 to 1012 = 26 and the /ES sops at 1010 then you get a target for 5 down at 984. Very reasonable I think. This is, of course, that the counts are right. Notice the support from the 75% line (red on the bottom) of the GSEC channel.

Just like the reaction to the jobs number, I am confused. Sorry, sure you do not want to hear that at this stage of the post, but you have to ask the questions how, why and WTF about the reaction to another dreadful employment number? Bizzaro shit if you ask me. TARP money in play at GS or did some kid just fat finger a trade? I am going to stick with my call for a basically flat to down day today given where the indicators are as 4 churns out and 5 should begin. If she falls I like 984. I would be surprised if it climbs much at all looking at 1015 as the peak of the range if it should. I will speculate that this afternoon may be interesting given the rumors this week.

GL trading.

Morning - Let's set Up the Fall Shall We?

Let's set up wave 3 today and tomorrow with a nice corrective 4 up and 5 down and then the 2 corrective. The bulls are gonna fight back I believe. Yet another muted news reaction to the IMO bad employment numbers. When you come in "somewhat better than expected" as reported by CNBS but are still cranking out 500k + numbers, things suck. No way around it. Remember this is a lagging indicator and jobs means nothing in the overall scale of things.

Chart one - Daily /ESU9. Notice the channel? That is the GSEC channel (as discussed previously) Well, it is purportedly petering out. When this breaks down, I'll concede the top is in. That is P2. I would like to point out that that tiny little light blue blip on the chart is the channel we are in now (chart 2 below). Not much in the overall scheme of things. I'm looking for something much more noticeable to start P3.



Chart two - /ESU9 15m. Notice the channel? Wave 1 down as they are calling it (I'm not there yet). First note the top of the channel is right at 1015 now (the 200ma monthly SPX is at 1018). What I also want you to notice are the two strange red lines running thru the chart. The top one is the 50% line of the GSEC and the lower is the 75% line. While not always accurate, the do have relevance when trading inside of larger formations like the GSEC. Notice the interactions with these trendlines here.



I'm gonna call flat to up today as the corrective move off of the last top continues and we set up the 5th wave of this move down. I'm not all that comfortable with the call, but the 30m and 60m indicators are bottoming which might provide some support. /ES fibs are at 50% 1009 and 61% 1014. I do not see the market going back over 1015 for some time but not under 974 either as we churn thru 4 and 5 of 1 of 3 and then have the 2 of 3 corrective. Matter of fact, you can take a week off if you like.

Remember - If you missed the supposed "top" - no biggie. We are in a 1 down. 2 down will retrace a good portion of 1 and provide a good entry point (I use these as places to enter a second half of a longer swing trade or to exit a bad miss). Just so you are in for the 3 down you will get the meat of the move. So, don't freak out. Be calm and patient and set a strategy (and please always use stops).

I'll be posting on VIX, gold, dollar, oil and UNG (again) later today. No news last night as it was a crappy day, so I took a break.

I almost forgot - college football kicks off tonight. Sveeeet!

GL trading.

Good Morning - Flat to Down.

Tougher call today as muted responses to market data continue to baffle. After checking out Dan's post and a few others, looks like the pennant that has formed should lead to further upside. If it plays out as measures one target is 1048 and the other 1038 depending on point of measurement. The is not a call.

Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.

If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.

We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.

GL today.



This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.