For those that do not read the blog regularly and do not read the comments, you miss a majority of what I have to say and where my thoughts are more generally and liberally presented. I will try to summarize what I think the game plan is for the current situation.
As STB called from 1290 drop then pop and rise to set daily divergences then go poof. SPX cash came within 8 points of my targeted area yesterday. STB has been calling for a miserable November for some time now. So far so good on both accounts.
Now, STB has been on this larger call for some time - They need an event or market crash to allow for the debt ceiling vote to be more accommodating and to scare the markets into allowing one more massive stimulus. A move to 1040 should allow for that.
Showing posts with label Charts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charts. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Friday, September 16, 2011
Open Weekend Post
You know the drill - Share the love and the knowledge.
STB had a great week on blogger - so good that we're gonna stay here for a while. Apparently you all like this place quite a bit. I do as well. Blogger does not support some of the stuff I need, but it is better in other ways.
Welcome to all the lurkers that came out this week in record numbers (another plus for blogger). you all did great with the links and maket info.
Make sure you voice your opinion in the new poll to the right, but you need to read this first - Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come | ZeroHedge. And of course the euro version of the super bailout ensuring every investor all is well - It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF! | ZeroHedge
You see - Hakuna Matata - no worries mate!
STB had a great week on blogger - so good that we're gonna stay here for a while. Apparently you all like this place quite a bit. I do as well. Blogger does not support some of the stuff I need, but it is better in other ways.
Welcome to all the lurkers that came out this week in record numbers (another plus for blogger). you all did great with the links and maket info.
Make sure you voice your opinion in the new poll to the right, but you need to read this first - Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come | ZeroHedge. And of course the euro version of the super bailout ensuring every investor all is well - It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF! | ZeroHedge
You see - Hakuna Matata - no worries mate!
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Afternoon Delight (Evening Post) SPX, TYP
Weak effort at an AD. Will get back to full fledged AD's next week. The comment stream was getting a bit intense below. Less to scroll thru here.
SPX 60m w/ 13/34 for discussion. Or you can talk about anything you like.
SPX 60m w/ 13/34 for discussion. Or you can talk about anything you like.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Morning Post
OK, so China decides to start cashing out and the Greece volleyball keeps getting bounced around. It appears the global financial fireworks are starting to launch some of the bigger shells as we work our way thru the show. I am surprised there was not a bigger move on the China divestment announcement. Remember there has to be a buyer for every seller, so you gotta wonder who that will be (since our government is the great backstop of the planet). I guess the market is saying this deal is a wash. If you look at the action in the currencies during the Greece announcements yesterday, the dramatic swings on the in/out announcements were pretty wild.
Earnings calendar -
Economic calendar - Lots of numbers pushed back to Friday due to snow storm on east coast (maybe a few global warming meetings should be canceled as well?). Uncle Bennie speaks at 10:00.
E-minis 15m - Channeling up towards resistance. The dailys still remain oversold even after this move up off of 1040. Looking at the indicators I'd be forced to lean long or for downside volatility to be little risk.
SPX Daily - If those upper TL's on the indicators start to give way, the bears are gonna be pissed. If they hold and throw the market down for one more pop, then there will have a nice set up for a larger corrective wave to come. It is oversold, the RSI5 divergence, the looks of some of the other indicators and the possible solution (if you can call it that) to the Greece issue may actually have us in 1 of 2 of 1 of P3 already.
Gold - Still oversold and bouncing off of support. I think it consolidates for a short while.
Oil - Holding lower support line and coming off of oversold conditions.
Dollar - Overbought and reversing.
Natgas - Reversing off of upper TL and possibly breaking down. Low volatility expected as indicators are playing in the middle of the road.
EUR/USD - Look - if you measure it (and listen to all the bitching going on) it has completed and ABC corrective almost to the number. On the inverse the dollar has done the same. Let's see if we go into strengthen the Euro mode as the financial saga continues to churn.
This is a strange spot. I am seeing conflicting messages. The indicators want more but the numbers say the corrective is done. The dollar may have peeked and the EUR may have finished its fall. The FI markets may be the catalyst we are waiting on as everyone digests what China's move towards financial terrorism will do. The Greece saga is not over. I still have some small shorts from long ago and that tiny long that everyone thought I was crazy to play from the 1049 level. Is 1 of 3 is toast or did we just complete a corrective? The indicators to me say there is room for a 5 down left based on the position of the TL's, but if they give way we are in 2. The only hope I see of a 3rd wave scenario is that the weeklys still have room to fall. I remain cautiously positioned both long and short LOL (with more weight short).
GL out there.
Earnings calendar -
Economic calendar - Lots of numbers pushed back to Friday due to snow storm on east coast (maybe a few global warming meetings should be canceled as well?). Uncle Bennie speaks at 10:00.
E-minis 15m - Channeling up towards resistance. The dailys still remain oversold even after this move up off of 1040. Looking at the indicators I'd be forced to lean long or for downside volatility to be little risk.
SPX Daily - If those upper TL's on the indicators start to give way, the bears are gonna be pissed. If they hold and throw the market down for one more pop, then there will have a nice set up for a larger corrective wave to come. It is oversold, the RSI5 divergence, the looks of some of the other indicators and the possible solution (if you can call it that) to the Greece issue may actually have us in 1 of 2 of 1 of P3 already.
Oil - Holding lower support line and coming off of oversold conditions.
Dollar - Overbought and reversing.
Natgas - Reversing off of upper TL and possibly breaking down. Low volatility expected as indicators are playing in the middle of the road.
EUR/USD - Look - if you measure it (and listen to all the bitching going on) it has completed and ABC corrective almost to the number. On the inverse the dollar has done the same. Let's see if we go into strengthen the Euro mode as the financial saga continues to churn.
This is a strange spot. I am seeing conflicting messages. The indicators want more but the numbers say the corrective is done. The dollar may have peeked and the EUR may have finished its fall. The FI markets may be the catalyst we are waiting on as everyone digests what China's move towards financial terrorism will do. The Greece saga is not over. I still have some small shorts from long ago and that tiny long that everyone thought I was crazy to play from the 1049 level. Is 1 of 3 is toast or did we just complete a corrective? The indicators to me say there is room for a 5 down left based on the position of the TL's, but if they give way we are in 2. The only hope I see of a 3rd wave scenario is that the weeklys still have room to fall. I remain cautiously positioned both long and short LOL (with more weight short).
GL out there.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Short ETF Roundup
I do not advocate playing these by their charts, but rather by the indexes they track. This chart is to show the conglomeration of the heard and to attempt to possibly gain sight on where the heard may be headed. EEV leading out of the gate presumably on all of the China news. SKF pulls up fast into second cause O is gonna put the screws to the banks news. DUG rising into third on oil issues. QID and SDS bring up the rear. I can only have 6 max indexes per chart. I may do a 3x chart as well (it should look just like this one).
The black TL and the S/R lines are a ballpark average as well as the fib. They do not apply to any specific ETF. Let's see if this heard stays in a pack or if we can get a defined leader. I do believe this chart may be helpful in identifying the stronger/weaker shorts.You can see where DUG took and early lead but lost it. UUP is not on here, cause it is the big leader in the race of the shorties.
This chart is lives in the Short section of my chartbook here. I have not charted the shorts in some time (wonder why), but I will be updating the individual charts soon.
The black TL and the S/R lines are a ballpark average as well as the fib. They do not apply to any specific ETF. Let's see if this heard stays in a pack or if we can get a defined leader. I do believe this chart may be helpful in identifying the stronger/weaker shorts.You can see where DUG took and early lead but lost it. UUP is not on here, cause it is the big leader in the race of the shorties.
This chart is lives in the Short section of my chartbook here. I have not charted the shorts in some time (wonder why), but I will be updating the individual charts soon.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Morning Post
Christmas week and with me skiing in Colorado next week there is no telling what you will get from me between now and the end of the year. If something happens, I'll be here. If not, I'll be enjoying the holidays. You should too! We got Xmas kicked off early and the kids got some big presents from the family - GUNS! That's right, 28 gauge single shot shotguns. (My boys are 7 and 9). We shot all weekend and should be able to have them ready to defend the southern border of the homestead by mid summer if necessary.
The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.
A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart.
SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.
I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.
That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.
GL and happy holidays.
The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.
A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart.
SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.
I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.
That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.
GL and happy holidays.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Four Possible Solar Plays
If we're gonna get a pop for a 4th wave and then down for 5 but UP for 2 of P3 then now is the time to look at some short term plays on some stocks that got pummeled these last two weeks. As I go thru updating my chartbook, I'll throw out the best of what I find here.
Right now four Alternative Energy plays look like they may be worth looking at. If trends hold true these all look almost ripe for picking. Ne patient and let them come to you and set your stops.
See the charts below.
FSLR
SOLF
TAN
WFR
This last chart compares PBW (Alt Energy Index) to $WTIC (LT sweet crude). They tend to follow each other around and when these get to far apart they correct. Now, this is not saying they both can't correct straight down, but given the possibility of the potential pop due in the market, I'm guessing the near term correction id for alt energy to pop up.
Right now four Alternative Energy plays look like they may be worth looking at. If trends hold true these all look almost ripe for picking. Ne patient and let them come to you and set your stops.
See the charts below.
FSLR
SOLF
TAN
WFR
This last chart compares PBW (Alt Energy Index) to $WTIC (LT sweet crude). They tend to follow each other around and when these get to far apart they correct. Now, this is not saying they both can't correct straight down, but given the possibility of the potential pop due in the market, I'm guessing the near term correction id for alt energy to pop up.
Monday, September 21, 2009
A Quick Look At The Weekly VIX
This is the big boy, not daily or 60m. This is a weekly chart of the VIX. Price is running along in a positive divergence to SPX since July with the 200ma acting as support now. The indicators are all oversold, have been embedded and are showing divergences to price. When the RSI crosses the 15ma it should be all over IMO.
Is this going to be "the" breakout? Hard to tell with possibly two head fakes already in the books. I think a dead cat bounce has been completed and a double bottom is possibly set. Some (including me) have had other trendlines that possibly show a breakout and back test of the top wedge line. If the move down was an ABC the target for C=A was missed by .10 by my calcs. BB's getting pretty narrow indicating increased volatility again.
No one knows which way the market will move (except on POMO days and every afternoon around 3:30). There is no reason the VIX can not continue to flat line like the dead meaningless index it has become. There is a chance that this is the 4th wave of 5, but 5 would have to truncate given price levels. This could also be a 1,2 move as well. I prefer the ABC mentioned above. Given the current state of the other chart I have been presenting, it looks like a storm is brewing to me.
I am long VXX from 50.65 since last week with a 5% stop.
Chart Better Viewed HERE.
Is this going to be "the" breakout? Hard to tell with possibly two head fakes already in the books. I think a dead cat bounce has been completed and a double bottom is possibly set. Some (including me) have had other trendlines that possibly show a breakout and back test of the top wedge line. If the move down was an ABC the target for C=A was missed by .10 by my calcs. BB's getting pretty narrow indicating increased volatility again.
No one knows which way the market will move (except on POMO days and every afternoon around 3:30). There is no reason the VIX can not continue to flat line like the dead meaningless index it has become. There is a chance that this is the 4th wave of 5, but 5 would have to truncate given price levels. This could also be a 1,2 move as well. I prefer the ABC mentioned above. Given the current state of the other chart I have been presenting, it looks like a storm is brewing to me.
I am long VXX from 50.65 since last week with a 5% stop.
Chart Better Viewed HERE.
Afternoon Delight - The New /ES Channel (DOWN)
Read 'em and weep. I like series of lower highs and lower lows. The thick blue line is the rising wedge top line.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Good Morning - Flat to Down.
Tougher call today as muted responses to market data continue to baffle. After checking out Dan's post and a few others, looks like the pennant that has formed should lead to further upside. If it plays out as measures one target is 1048 and the other 1038 depending on point of measurement. The is not a call.
Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.
If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.
We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.
GL today.
This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.
Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.
If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.
We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.
GL today.
This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
SPX - Anyone Confused?
The markets reaction the the unemployment numbers really had me hot this am. So who gives a damn if we are still dumping jobs at over 500k per week. Buy the market up at any cost!I guess opex has had it's way with the bears this week. Rolled 'em up and threw 'em under the bus and then backed over them for good measure. Anyone feel that way? Raise your hand now please.
Yesterday I went with the supposedly prevailing sentiment and the indicators, but left myself a big out. My gut and the daily indicators were telling me I might need to get the green jersey out of the closet, but the indicators had just not confirmed it and were still in bear mode. I had to go with what the carts said.
Today, the message is still not clear. I am on the side of manipulation as the unemployment numbers were shrugged off and other announcements this am were bullshit signals assisting in the slow but sure "verification" that the bottom is in and the recession is ending. My freaking ass it is. We're screwed and that is a 100% certainty.
You all know why and I'm not gonna rehash it here and now. There are at least 25 factors that lead to the potential demise of this country to a third rate nation. No shit, I'm not joking and if you don't see it, well then hopefully your meds will be cheaper in the government option of the new HC plan. This has everything to do with the market being PURELY MANIPULATED. It is so blatant that it is a joke.
One new interesting theory thrown out today in the ZH comments section is - could China be behind some of the cash being pumped into the market. Of the billions they have pulled out of treasuries, did they roll them into the market to assist in the world of stick saves? Think about it.
As for the charts - a little different from yesterday, My suspicions were nuts on about the daily indicators turning, BUT watching the RSI, I will not be convinced the bull run is in till the trendline is broken (as of the time of the post DOW futures down 75). The 60m did not turn and has begun the embed process.
The BIG DIFFERENCE from yesterday is I have added a top trendline that makes for a nice triangle at the top (It is drawn as if the market stopped at it yesterday). Does it need an E touch of the bottom trendline before the breakout? If the triangle is drawn right it measures 43 points - a measured breakout gets us close to the 1050 magical target.
NOTE: at this point I have not given up on my pipe dream of SPX hitting 945, getting a proper retracement out of this fall and resetting the lower rising wedge line so the climb can continue to my October target top. The weeklys are still headed south and I want a dog gone divergence in the weekly indicators. This should be the time they come. If not, more upside to come IMO.
I'm not sold on the long theme till RSI breaks, but when it does I may be balls deep long. Have a great weekend. Opex will be gone for another month thank goodness. I can't wait for to see what Sept and Oct bring. We're closing in on a top for sure. You might get a rant this weekend! Any suggestions for videos for the weekend would be appreciated.
Note: I added a Facebook Follower thingy on the right. I would appreciate it if you would hook me up with a follow if you use FB. You can be my friend too. LOL.
Yesterday I went with the supposedly prevailing sentiment and the indicators, but left myself a big out. My gut and the daily indicators were telling me I might need to get the green jersey out of the closet, but the indicators had just not confirmed it and were still in bear mode. I had to go with what the carts said.
Today, the message is still not clear. I am on the side of manipulation as the unemployment numbers were shrugged off and other announcements this am were bullshit signals assisting in the slow but sure "verification" that the bottom is in and the recession is ending. My freaking ass it is. We're screwed and that is a 100% certainty.
You all know why and I'm not gonna rehash it here and now. There are at least 25 factors that lead to the potential demise of this country to a third rate nation. No shit, I'm not joking and if you don't see it, well then hopefully your meds will be cheaper in the government option of the new HC plan. This has everything to do with the market being PURELY MANIPULATED. It is so blatant that it is a joke.
One new interesting theory thrown out today in the ZH comments section is - could China be behind some of the cash being pumped into the market. Of the billions they have pulled out of treasuries, did they roll them into the market to assist in the world of stick saves? Think about it.
As for the charts - a little different from yesterday, My suspicions were nuts on about the daily indicators turning, BUT watching the RSI, I will not be convinced the bull run is in till the trendline is broken (as of the time of the post DOW futures down 75). The 60m did not turn and has begun the embed process.
The BIG DIFFERENCE from yesterday is I have added a top trendline that makes for a nice triangle at the top (It is drawn as if the market stopped at it yesterday). Does it need an E touch of the bottom trendline before the breakout? If the triangle is drawn right it measures 43 points - a measured breakout gets us close to the 1050 magical target.
NOTE: at this point I have not given up on my pipe dream of SPX hitting 945, getting a proper retracement out of this fall and resetting the lower rising wedge line so the climb can continue to my October target top. The weeklys are still headed south and I want a dog gone divergence in the weekly indicators. This should be the time they come. If not, more upside to come IMO.
I'm not sold on the long theme till RSI breaks, but when it does I may be balls deep long. Have a great weekend. Opex will be gone for another month thank goodness. I can't wait for to see what Sept and Oct bring. We're closing in on a top for sure. You might get a rant this weekend! Any suggestions for videos for the weekend would be appreciated.
Note: I added a Facebook Follower thingy on the right. I would appreciate it if you would hook me up with a follow if you use FB. You can be my friend too. LOL.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
A Qucik Look At A Chart
The weekly and monthly indicator charts are what I think could be my most telling of when the turn will happen (and that may not be as soon as you think). Sentiment is building, insiders are selling, all of the shit is boiling to the surface, but what will it take to get the indicators on these two charts to go red? The market is climbing the wall of worry right now. The suckers are getting sucked in. The pump and dump is in full swing. Note - the divergences I am looking for in the below commentary are not necessary, but would be nice to see. I will be playing this fall as if it could be the big one, but I would not be surprised to see one last run at a higher high.
Let's look at the weekly first. Link here for better viewing.
The weeklys are not ready IMO. Sure they are peaking and overbought, but not one real divergence is set other than the MACD histogram. RSI broke a major trendline at the bottom after setting up a 5 month negative divergence. I was hoping that his last pop up would set the divergence for the fall, but nooooo they had to climb to new highs. MACD histogram is there, but again no divergence in the indicator or signal lines. My favorite turn indicator (a cross in S Sto) is happening, but the set up is not for a major move south given the indicators around it. There is no divergence in CCI, no ADX sell signal, even the TRIX is not in the game yet. The RSI setting a divergence and then crossing the trendline will be my key for P2 to end.
Now lets look at a monthly chart. Link here for better viewing.
I have been harping on the monthly RSI trendline for a while now. Will it turn here? It is right at it. Bullish and bearish signals are all over the place. There are a lot of similarities like at the last bottom in '03. The bull cross has occurred in F and S Sto and MACD. MACD his is positive at the moment. These can all whipsaw in an instant. Some odf the more bearish indicators can be seen in the declining volume, SPX approaching the 200ma, TRIX not close to going positive, ChiO is ballistic, SPXA50 is in the stratosphere, BPSPX in way up and the P/E ratio is totally unsustainable.
Right now IMO it looks eerily similar to the '03 bottom almost all the way down the chart. This means nothing though. I have seen overbought dailys sneak their way to the bottom without generating any huge sell offs, yet in this case I think the market gets a sizable pullback soon (SPX 945-924 target range). The weekly and monthly indicators are not ready for a big fall just yet. I'm really curious about what happens with RSI and the trendline and with price at the 200ma (not to mention the overbought dailys and the rising wedge and decreasing vol and the P/E levels). A good fall, but not the big one. Wait for the indicators to set proper divergences and violate trendlines on the weekly charts. The signals will be there and a massive impulsive move will define the top. Hang in there. It's coming. Play it like this is the big one, but keep one eye on the bulls and the possibility of further strength. I don't think the manipulators have thrown in the towel just yet.
Let's look at the weekly first. Link here for better viewing.
The weeklys are not ready IMO. Sure they are peaking and overbought, but not one real divergence is set other than the MACD histogram. RSI broke a major trendline at the bottom after setting up a 5 month negative divergence. I was hoping that his last pop up would set the divergence for the fall, but nooooo they had to climb to new highs. MACD histogram is there, but again no divergence in the indicator or signal lines. My favorite turn indicator (a cross in S Sto) is happening, but the set up is not for a major move south given the indicators around it. There is no divergence in CCI, no ADX sell signal, even the TRIX is not in the game yet. The RSI setting a divergence and then crossing the trendline will be my key for P2 to end.
Now lets look at a monthly chart. Link here for better viewing.
I have been harping on the monthly RSI trendline for a while now. Will it turn here? It is right at it. Bullish and bearish signals are all over the place. There are a lot of similarities like at the last bottom in '03. The bull cross has occurred in F and S Sto and MACD. MACD his is positive at the moment. These can all whipsaw in an instant. Some odf the more bearish indicators can be seen in the declining volume, SPX approaching the 200ma, TRIX not close to going positive, ChiO is ballistic, SPXA50 is in the stratosphere, BPSPX in way up and the P/E ratio is totally unsustainable.
Right now IMO it looks eerily similar to the '03 bottom almost all the way down the chart. This means nothing though. I have seen overbought dailys sneak their way to the bottom without generating any huge sell offs, yet in this case I think the market gets a sizable pullback soon (SPX 945-924 target range). The weekly and monthly indicators are not ready for a big fall just yet. I'm really curious about what happens with RSI and the trendline and with price at the 200ma (not to mention the overbought dailys and the rising wedge and decreasing vol and the P/E levels). A good fall, but not the big one. Wait for the indicators to set proper divergences and violate trendlines on the weekly charts. The signals will be there and a massive impulsive move will define the top. Hang in there. It's coming. Play it like this is the big one, but keep one eye on the bulls and the possibility of further strength. I don't think the manipulators have thrown in the towel just yet.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
SDS, EEV and QID - The Red Headed Step Children
Who the fuck knew things were so damn rosy out there? I mean looking at these three you would think that any hint of a recession or unemployment or the plethora of other issues that exist don't exist. This is the most screwed up shit I have ever seen. Notes are in the charts. The skid marks - I mean gaps are the brown sharts across the screen. All support resistance lines are with historical points included. These wedges were so easy to draw even prophit got one of them right in TOS.
EEV - Has fallen 91.75% from its 196 top. So things are so good in emerging markets that this has happened. WTF is gonna happen to EEV when things really do recover in 10 years? Previous all time low was 58.12.
SDS - Has fallen - get this - 61.8% off of the top. 40.38 is all time low.
QID - Has fallen 61.8 points from the top (not a fib number, but kind of cool in relation to that number). Anything below 28.46 is setting all time new lows.
EEV - Has fallen 91.75% from its 196 top. So things are so good in emerging markets that this has happened. WTF is gonna happen to EEV when things really do recover in 10 years? Previous all time low was 58.12.
SDS - Has fallen - get this - 61.8% off of the top. 40.38 is all time low.
QID - Has fallen 61.8 points from the top (not a fib number, but kind of cool in relation to that number). Anything below 28.46 is setting all time new lows.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Lets Look At A Few Charts
Take a look at the three charts and draw your own conclusions. Some road signs are there and some are confusing because of the manipulation.
The first chart is the monthly I showed you last week.
Notice:
1) RSI 5 and 14 appear to be leveling off just short of the trendlines.
2) Bull cross in F Sto and upward trending Slow Sto - not looking like a turn yet.
3) MACD about to bull cross (usually a confirming indicator IMO). MACD at -113.54 and signal at -114.41. Histogram almost positive at -.863. Will the HIST go positive?
4) MA10 is now upwards sloping.
5) Monthly MA200 is at 1016 just above the current price. See chart below for the last time the 200ma was penetrated (I love that word) in 1974.
6) Positive buy vol is declining.
7) TRIX is still headed south but narrowing (lagging indicator IMO).
8) SPXA50 is at 436. That is 436? 436? Yup. 436. The last time it was this high (438) was in April of 2003 right after the last bubble burst. Really? Yeah, really.
9) ChiOsc is stratospheric nearing pre-bubble burst levels.
So what does all of this say? Well, not much because there are conflicting signals. the chart has a ton of similarities to the end of 2003 when the last bottom happened. On the other hand you can cherry pick some similarities to the last top in 2007. Given the overbought scenarios in the WEEKLY and DAILY indicators, a turn should be happening sooner than later. I am still going with my prediction we top in October after a good move south soon.
For those that say this last bottom did this and this other bottom did that need to realize history is a good guideline, but this time is different. This is a true financial crisis like nothing we have ever experienced nor will we again in our lifetimes. We once had a savings rate of -1%. We were the world's consumer. Our consumer is dead and there is no one that can step up to take our place. There is nothing that I can see that will readily put 10% of our country back to work and more factors that will continue putting people out of work. The debt can not be supported and the failure of treasury sales is your first clue that this is ending. The HFT, accounting fraudulent, government sponsored rally we are experiencing is pure bullshit.
CHART viewed better here.
Bottom in 1974 - the last time the 200ma was penetrated (hugh, hugh - he said penetrated) in 1974. Just to give you an idea of "what happened the last time this happened" LOL.
The following is a chart from 1928 thru 1944. The last great depression. If we don't go crashing to new lows, I expect something like this to play out with what I would call an L shaped recovery over an extended period of time as everything resets and we work off the excesses in the system. In this chart you can also see the channels I have for the LT trends. The market is currently near the 50% line of this channel (thus plenty of room to fall with the 75% line near 450 and the lower line near 300).
GL trading.
The first chart is the monthly I showed you last week.
Notice:
1) RSI 5 and 14 appear to be leveling off just short of the trendlines.
2) Bull cross in F Sto and upward trending Slow Sto - not looking like a turn yet.
3) MACD about to bull cross (usually a confirming indicator IMO). MACD at -113.54 and signal at -114.41. Histogram almost positive at -.863. Will the HIST go positive?
4) MA10 is now upwards sloping.
5) Monthly MA200 is at 1016 just above the current price. See chart below for the last time the 200ma was penetrated (I love that word) in 1974.
6) Positive buy vol is declining.
7) TRIX is still headed south but narrowing (lagging indicator IMO).
8) SPXA50 is at 436. That is 436? 436? Yup. 436. The last time it was this high (438) was in April of 2003 right after the last bubble burst. Really? Yeah, really.
9) ChiOsc is stratospheric nearing pre-bubble burst levels.
So what does all of this say? Well, not much because there are conflicting signals. the chart has a ton of similarities to the end of 2003 when the last bottom happened. On the other hand you can cherry pick some similarities to the last top in 2007. Given the overbought scenarios in the WEEKLY and DAILY indicators, a turn should be happening sooner than later. I am still going with my prediction we top in October after a good move south soon.
For those that say this last bottom did this and this other bottom did that need to realize history is a good guideline, but this time is different. This is a true financial crisis like nothing we have ever experienced nor will we again in our lifetimes. We once had a savings rate of -1%. We were the world's consumer. Our consumer is dead and there is no one that can step up to take our place. There is nothing that I can see that will readily put 10% of our country back to work and more factors that will continue putting people out of work. The debt can not be supported and the failure of treasury sales is your first clue that this is ending. The HFT, accounting fraudulent, government sponsored rally we are experiencing is pure bullshit.
CHART viewed better here.
Bottom in 1974 - the last time the 200ma was penetrated (hugh, hugh - he said penetrated) in 1974. Just to give you an idea of "what happened the last time this happened" LOL.
The following is a chart from 1928 thru 1944. The last great depression. If we don't go crashing to new lows, I expect something like this to play out with what I would call an L shaped recovery over an extended period of time as everything resets and we work off the excesses in the system. In this chart you can also see the channels I have for the LT trends. The market is currently near the 50% line of this channel (thus plenty of room to fall with the 75% line near 450 and the lower line near 300).
GL trading.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
A Few More Charts To Digest - We're Getting Closer
Weekly indicators that I wanted to set divergences for the next fall have done worse and are now beginning to embed (with the dailys). Needless to say I expected this run up, but I wanted it after a deeper pullback that I did not get. This exuberance can not last forever (well, it can last as long as the HFT's and the BHO's want it to actually - they have all the money in the world to play with and whether you or I participate is a non factor these days IMO)
So the next hurdle IMO will be the trendlines on the monthly indicators. I'm really watching the RSI and Slow Sto trendlines and the MACD histogram. The severely declining buy volume is a great indicator that this rally is on its last legs.
SPXA50 is above 400 again (what a freaking joke that is). The PE ratios are not realistic. You should realize that the monthly Sto indicators are going to have to embed here and whipsaw after bull crosses. MACD will need a whipsaw as well. TRIX has a way to go to cross, but it lags the market IMO. The market has made it thru EOM painting.
I'm still guessing we top in October in a range from 1050 to 1121 at either a 38% or 50% retracement from the big fall where they intersect with the top market line. Two green target lines shown. I'm in the ABC corrective camp and this is possibly the beginning of 3.C.2 with 868 having possibly been the bottom of B (again I wanted a deeper move for B, but might not get it). That was a pretty impulsive move this AM disregarding employment and treasury sales (who give a shit?).
Link to chart in Stockcharts for better viewing.
I would also like for you to look at a yearly chart. I have shown it before and got poo pooed for it. Not so funny now is it? It is bullish as hell. The indicators there have bottomed and will need to turn and embed for significant downside move - So you are fighting monthly rising and yearly at the bottom rising and daily and weekly at the top. This kind of supports my theory for the need for an "external influence" to get the market to go where us permabears want it to.
So the next hurdle IMO will be the trendlines on the monthly indicators. I'm really watching the RSI and Slow Sto trendlines and the MACD histogram. The severely declining buy volume is a great indicator that this rally is on its last legs.
SPXA50 is above 400 again (what a freaking joke that is). The PE ratios are not realistic. You should realize that the monthly Sto indicators are going to have to embed here and whipsaw after bull crosses. MACD will need a whipsaw as well. TRIX has a way to go to cross, but it lags the market IMO. The market has made it thru EOM painting.
I'm still guessing we top in October in a range from 1050 to 1121 at either a 38% or 50% retracement from the big fall where they intersect with the top market line. Two green target lines shown. I'm in the ABC corrective camp and this is possibly the beginning of 3.C.2 with 868 having possibly been the bottom of B (again I wanted a deeper move for B, but might not get it). That was a pretty impulsive move this AM disregarding employment and treasury sales (who give a shit?).
Link to chart in Stockcharts for better viewing.
I would also like for you to look at a yearly chart. I have shown it before and got poo pooed for it. Not so funny now is it? It is bullish as hell. The indicators there have bottomed and will need to turn and embed for significant downside move - So you are fighting monthly rising and yearly at the bottom rising and daily and weekly at the top. This kind of supports my theory for the need for an "external influence" to get the market to go where us permabears want it to.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
UNG Time!
Three charts; 60m, Daily and Weekly with articles and commentary from yours truly.
The links to each chart are above in the time frames.
Let's start with the additional share issue from Seeking Alpha today - Natural Gas ETF Awaits New Shares as Prices Fall. If you just think UNG is a normal ETF, you need to read this. "The $4.6 billion fund made 300 million new shares available May 6, which grew to 347.4 million shares, and ran out on July 7. The Securities and Exchange Commission is deciding whether to approve 1 billion extra shares." That is ONE Billion extra shares with a B.
What are some of the issues facing UNG and natural gas. From the same article, "Stockpiles of the fuel increased 90 billion cubic feet in the week ending on July 10, hitting 2,889 trillion cubic feet, a 15 year high. Demand by factories, steel mills and chemical plants, which make up 29% of U.S. demand, dropped 13% in 2009’s first 4 months year-over-year."
Further issues are discussed in Econbrowser's article Natural gas and oil prices. "Natural gas prices have been pummeled by over-supply and weak demand, cutting the national drill rig count in half in the past year. Meanwhile, monstrous initial production rates in non-traditional shale plays have added to price pressure, as producers fight to hold the terms of their expensive leases in boomtowns....Now, British Columbia's Horn River Basin might be added to the list, with the help of behemoth ExxonMobil (XOM) reportedly coming up with initial rates on early test wells to the tune of 16- to 18-million cubic feet a day.... That is double the rate of a really good well and in line with the Haynesville, in Louisiana, which may hold some 250 trillion cubic feet of recoverable national gas, enough to satisfy domestic demand for a decade."
Want to know what drives the price action in UNG? Contango! "Rolling hurts performance when the current contract is worth less than the next month, known as contango. The natural gas market has been in contango 94 percent of the time since the fund started in April 2007, compared with 78 percent since April 1990. Contango doesn’t matter as much when prices rise. Gas cost $7.50 when the fund debuted and increased 81 percent to a 2 1/2- year peak of $13.58 on July 3, 2008. The fund gained 25 percent during that time, besting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which fell 14 percent."
Bloomberg has Natural Gas ETF Down More Than Fuel as Fund Sells Out (Update2) where you learn, "“The amount of interest in this fund is a surprise given the trend in gas is down and not looking to change any time soon,” said Tom Orr, the director of research for Weeden & Co. LP, a Greenwich, Connecticut, securities brokerage, in a telephone interview. He predicted natural gas, this year’s worst performing major commodity, will fall below $3 per million British thermal units next month, from $3.689 today, and rise to $4 in the fourth quarter."
I did not discuss the relationship between the price of oil and nat gas (it is covered in detail in the Econobrowser article). You should read it. Bottom line is the relationship ratio is not at historical norms that will require the prices to become closer in relation to each other. Given my Oil Up Or Down post below, I believe the price of oil falling will take care of the majority of this correction much more than nat gas rising.
So all of you who think UNG is a bargain and do not understand what is happening behind the ETF should be pretty surprised right now. The price is in contango now. This means there is no fundamental reason for the ETF to be rising other than speculation. There is no demand. Rigs are shut down. There is a serious supply glut. Shall I continue? Why is there demand for a Billion new shares? I can't tell you. Maybe it has something to do with Cap and Trade and the fact that nat gas is more environmentally friendly and cheaper than oil.
Lets get to the chart - I chose the 60m because it gives the best near term picture of what is going on. There was a nice triangle that has developed into a falling wedge. I do believe this is part of the bottoming process. I am going to stick with my thoughts that UNG is forming an MA pattern as mentioned before in previous UNG posts. The rising wedge in red should generate a bull flag and alter the shape of the rist to another wedge that will lead to the end of the rise.
I had previously (now deleted) had the triangle breaking down to 9.50 (width of the trianle from the breakdown point). I am not ruling out the possibility of a backtest of the triangle BD line and then a move lower. I missed the small H&S formation at the bottom and was way to bearish on UNG. The indicators turned on me unexpectedly and I missed it. This is why I am laying out all the scenarios I can see.
The annotations are in the chart. Based on the indicators I expect near term trend to continue. The 60m indicators are topping out and setting nice negative divergences. They will embed as the dailys are still in bull mode. The weeklys look strong as well. Actually UNG is set up a lot like SPX had been about a week ago. Look for the dailys to top out and set nice divergences on the weeklys for the nexy fall to what I think will be a lower low.
If UNG takes out the upper wedge line I would be surprised given the fibs, triangle apex, resistance and trendlines. Then again, greed and speculation might allow it to grow to a double top near 16.25, but I do not see it. I do expect another touch of the lower blue trendline for a possible ultimate bottom, but given my beliefs in the prospect for a continued depression (is is no longer a recession IMO) then demand for nat gas should remain low and supplies high. Not a great environment for growth. Oh, and I would think hard about dilution if a Billion additional shares are released, that might effect price just a little bit.
I hope this helps. GL trading.
The links to each chart are above in the time frames.
Let's start with the additional share issue from Seeking Alpha today - Natural Gas ETF Awaits New Shares as Prices Fall. If you just think UNG is a normal ETF, you need to read this. "The $4.6 billion fund made 300 million new shares available May 6, which grew to 347.4 million shares, and ran out on July 7. The Securities and Exchange Commission is deciding whether to approve 1 billion extra shares." That is ONE Billion extra shares with a B.
What are some of the issues facing UNG and natural gas. From the same article, "Stockpiles of the fuel increased 90 billion cubic feet in the week ending on July 10, hitting 2,889 trillion cubic feet, a 15 year high. Demand by factories, steel mills and chemical plants, which make up 29% of U.S. demand, dropped 13% in 2009’s first 4 months year-over-year."
Further issues are discussed in Econbrowser's article Natural gas and oil prices. "Natural gas prices have been pummeled by over-supply and weak demand, cutting the national drill rig count in half in the past year. Meanwhile, monstrous initial production rates in non-traditional shale plays have added to price pressure, as producers fight to hold the terms of their expensive leases in boomtowns....Now, British Columbia's Horn River Basin might be added to the list, with the help of behemoth ExxonMobil (XOM) reportedly coming up with initial rates on early test wells to the tune of 16- to 18-million cubic feet a day.... That is double the rate of a really good well and in line with the Haynesville, in Louisiana, which may hold some 250 trillion cubic feet of recoverable national gas, enough to satisfy domestic demand for a decade."
Want to know what drives the price action in UNG? Contango! "Rolling hurts performance when the current contract is worth less than the next month, known as contango. The natural gas market has been in contango 94 percent of the time since the fund started in April 2007, compared with 78 percent since April 1990. Contango doesn’t matter as much when prices rise. Gas cost $7.50 when the fund debuted and increased 81 percent to a 2 1/2- year peak of $13.58 on July 3, 2008. The fund gained 25 percent during that time, besting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which fell 14 percent."
Bloomberg has Natural Gas ETF Down More Than Fuel as Fund Sells Out (Update2) where you learn, "“The amount of interest in this fund is a surprise given the trend in gas is down and not looking to change any time soon,” said Tom Orr, the director of research for Weeden & Co. LP, a Greenwich, Connecticut, securities brokerage, in a telephone interview. He predicted natural gas, this year’s worst performing major commodity, will fall below $3 per million British thermal units next month, from $3.689 today, and rise to $4 in the fourth quarter."
I did not discuss the relationship between the price of oil and nat gas (it is covered in detail in the Econobrowser article). You should read it. Bottom line is the relationship ratio is not at historical norms that will require the prices to become closer in relation to each other. Given my Oil Up Or Down post below, I believe the price of oil falling will take care of the majority of this correction much more than nat gas rising.
So all of you who think UNG is a bargain and do not understand what is happening behind the ETF should be pretty surprised right now. The price is in contango now. This means there is no fundamental reason for the ETF to be rising other than speculation. There is no demand. Rigs are shut down. There is a serious supply glut. Shall I continue? Why is there demand for a Billion new shares? I can't tell you. Maybe it has something to do with Cap and Trade and the fact that nat gas is more environmentally friendly and cheaper than oil.
Lets get to the chart - I chose the 60m because it gives the best near term picture of what is going on. There was a nice triangle that has developed into a falling wedge. I do believe this is part of the bottoming process. I am going to stick with my thoughts that UNG is forming an MA pattern as mentioned before in previous UNG posts. The rising wedge in red should generate a bull flag and alter the shape of the rist to another wedge that will lead to the end of the rise.
I had previously (now deleted) had the triangle breaking down to 9.50 (width of the trianle from the breakdown point). I am not ruling out the possibility of a backtest of the triangle BD line and then a move lower. I missed the small H&S formation at the bottom and was way to bearish on UNG. The indicators turned on me unexpectedly and I missed it. This is why I am laying out all the scenarios I can see.
The annotations are in the chart. Based on the indicators I expect near term trend to continue. The 60m indicators are topping out and setting nice negative divergences. They will embed as the dailys are still in bull mode. The weeklys look strong as well. Actually UNG is set up a lot like SPX had been about a week ago. Look for the dailys to top out and set nice divergences on the weeklys for the nexy fall to what I think will be a lower low.
If UNG takes out the upper wedge line I would be surprised given the fibs, triangle apex, resistance and trendlines. Then again, greed and speculation might allow it to grow to a double top near 16.25, but I do not see it. I do expect another touch of the lower blue trendline for a possible ultimate bottom, but given my beliefs in the prospect for a continued depression (is is no longer a recession IMO) then demand for nat gas should remain low and supplies high. Not a great environment for growth. Oh, and I would think hard about dilution if a Billion additional shares are released, that might effect price just a little bit.
I hope this helps. GL trading.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
We Better Turn Soon - Or Else Something Is Really Wrong
NO! I am not showing that it is OVER, but to those that have been comparing "this bottom to that bottom" blah, blah, blah sure looks like you can make a great case that the bottom is in looking at the monthly chart.
Point of this is with the dailys and 60m topping out and the weeklys beginning to roll over, then the trendlines on the monthly indicators just may hold. It is gonna take some serious whipsaws in some of these indicators to make the turn in time. The VIX falling wedge ending pattern would confirm the turnaround suspicions as well.
(Disclosure - GS and the manipulators will take the market wherever they want to and TA nor EWT nor fundamentals works anymore so all this might not mean jack. Also - my target for "option 1" call looks like total crap on this chart. Not giving up on it yet. Note GS came out with a target of 1060 today for SPX - Uh, Shanky has been at 1050 for quite some time now as his target. First MW copying my shit and now GS? This is a great compliment and to have "THE" market manipulator agree with my target is quite the compliment - especially when I was over a month ahead of their call.)
For those asking for a UNG update, I have updated charts, but have not come to any definitive conclusions. I did find this interesting article on nat gas and oil prices. I'll post on UNG soon.
Still digesting comments on the new look. I'm not all that stoked about it either. Might change again soon. I mainly want something wider than the old format. If anyone would like to send me a suggestion it would be appreciated - email in top right.
Still struggling with SC support to get the new computer to allow me to annotate charts, so my time to update charts has become severely limited. I'm not happy. Sorry.
Thanks for the views and comments. GL trading!
Chart Link For better Viewing
Chart Link For better Viewing
Point of this is with the dailys and 60m topping out and the weeklys beginning to roll over, then the trendlines on the monthly indicators just may hold. It is gonna take some serious whipsaws in some of these indicators to make the turn in time. The VIX falling wedge ending pattern would confirm the turnaround suspicions as well.
(Disclosure - GS and the manipulators will take the market wherever they want to and TA nor EWT nor fundamentals works anymore so all this might not mean jack. Also - my target for "option 1" call looks like total crap on this chart. Not giving up on it yet. Note GS came out with a target of 1060 today for SPX - Uh, Shanky has been at 1050 for quite some time now as his target. First MW copying my shit and now GS? This is a great compliment and to have "THE" market manipulator agree with my target is quite the compliment - especially when I was over a month ahead of their call.)
For those asking for a UNG update, I have updated charts, but have not come to any definitive conclusions. I did find this interesting article on nat gas and oil prices. I'll post on UNG soon.
Still digesting comments on the new look. I'm not all that stoked about it either. Might change again soon. I mainly want something wider than the old format. If anyone would like to send me a suggestion it would be appreciated - email in top right.
Still struggling with SC support to get the new computer to allow me to annotate charts, so my time to update charts has become severely limited. I'm not happy. Sorry.
Thanks for the views and comments. GL trading!
Chart Link For better Viewing
Chart Link For better Viewing
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