Thursday, August 20, 2009

SPX - Anyone Confused?

The markets reaction the the unemployment numbers really had me hot this am. So who gives a damn if we are still dumping jobs at over 500k per week. Buy the market up at any cost!I guess opex has had it's way with the bears this week. Rolled 'em up and threw 'em under the bus and then backed over them for good measure. Anyone feel that way? Raise your hand now please.

Yesterday I went with the supposedly prevailing sentiment and the indicators, but left myself a big out. My gut and the daily indicators were telling me I might need to get the green jersey out of the closet, but the indicators had just not confirmed it and were still in bear mode. I had to go with what the carts said.

Today, the message is still not clear. I am on the side of manipulation as the unemployment numbers were shrugged off and other announcements this am were bullshit signals assisting in the slow but sure "verification" that the bottom is in and the recession is ending. My freaking ass it is. We're screwed and that is a 100% certainty.

You all know why and I'm not gonna rehash it here and now. There are at least 25 factors that lead to the potential demise of this country to a third rate nation. No shit, I'm not joking and if you don't see it, well then hopefully your meds will be cheaper in the government option of the new HC plan. This has everything to do with the market being PURELY MANIPULATED. It is so blatant that it is a joke.

One new interesting theory thrown out today in the ZH comments section is - could China be behind some of the cash being pumped into the market. Of the billions they have pulled out of treasuries, did they roll them into the market to assist in the world of stick saves? Think about it.

As for the charts - a little different from yesterday, My suspicions were nuts on about the daily indicators turning, BUT watching the RSI, I will not be convinced the bull run is in till the trendline is broken (as of the time of the post DOW futures down 75). The 60m did not turn and has begun the embed process.

The BIG DIFFERENCE from yesterday is I have added a top trendline that makes for a nice triangle at the top (It is drawn as if the market stopped at it yesterday). Does it need an E touch of the bottom trendline before the breakout? If the triangle is drawn right it measures 43 points - a measured breakout gets us close to the 1050 magical target.

NOTE: at this point I have not given up on my pipe dream of SPX hitting 945, getting a proper retracement out of this fall and resetting the lower rising wedge line so the climb can continue to my October target top. The weeklys are still headed south and I want a dog gone divergence in the weekly indicators. This should be the time they come. If not, more upside to come IMO.

I'm not sold on the long theme till RSI breaks, but when it does I may be balls deep long. Have a great weekend. Opex will be gone for another month thank goodness. I can't wait for to see what Sept and Oct bring. We're closing in on a top for sure. You might get a rant this weekend! Any suggestions for videos for the weekend would be appreciated.

Note: I added a Facebook Follower thingy on the right. I would appreciate it if you would hook me up with a follow if you use FB. You can be my friend too. LOL.


  1. I'm getting tired of this too, but I keep reminding myself that this is August and it is mainly bogus chop in a range. There will be no volume in either direction, and VIX will be subdued.

    Here's a good seasonality article to put in your back-o-tricks. Copper to decline, then oil with a possible rise in gold to follow - however, the dollar trumps them all. The dollar has one gap to fill (perhaps today) then the stage should be set.

    Weekend almost here ...

  2. crap. we'll all pay for it one day.


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