Monday, August 31, 2009

Calling all P3ers. Your Day Is Nearing. (T-Minus 42 Days to My Target)

Let's start with Impending Crash? from Denninger at The Market Ticker. In a simple post Karl makes some nice points without calling a top (emphasis mine). "Nobody - and I do mean nobody - is talking about what this sort of volume pattern means. Well, I will: this is the sort of pattern that precedes an all-on equity market collapse. It strongly implies that the only volume support that the market has is from "hot money" speculators. Lest you think this is sustainable let me point out that just a few weeks ago the very same so-called "commentators" said the same thing about China's market."

Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.

TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.

We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.

Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."

One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?

On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)

UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.

It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.

On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.

GL trading.


  1. 42 days? You have to explain that oh wizard of doom.

  2. My target has been October the 12th for a long time now. It is after September and where a couple of trendlines converge. Not sure exactly when I made the call, but if it happens I'll dig it out of the blog. Hope you are well. gotta take out 1015 baby. tomorrow may be the day. We'll see. Dailys have turned I think.

  3. Charles Nenner called for a high into September if the market could hold, possibly another rally (it may have happened early or will happen once more), then a bad crash starting after early September.

    Bob Janjua of RBS and Robert Prechtor the Elliot wave man have also predicted an impending crash, although they were called early.

    I will be holding my longs for a few more days before I go short.

  4. Bought option puts against Brazil [EWZ PBR] and China [FXI] on the probability they WILL NOT EMPTY their country's treasury to float their stock markets like the USA.

    Also bought SPY CALLS OCT@102 to hedge my puts.

    LUV the BLOG SHANKY!!!



  5. Yo Shanky. Thank you for your insight as always.

    Do you think we start p3 in October then?

    I think we hae another rally to kill the remaining bears.

  6. Even after today's actions I am holding to one more pop up, but as I have stated I am playing it as the top is in. Nice impulsive move down today combined with some efforts last week. Let's see if this rip gets bought. Indicators suck.

  7. Thanks Shanky. I too think we have one more rally innto October


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