Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Morning Market - Down To Flat

Good morning. I may start doing a morning post.

UPDATE: The SPX closed today -.01% down. So the down to flat call was a winner.

60m indicators headed south. Daily indicators still slightly bullish but weakening. Weakly very toppy with little room to run. The lower channel trendline is clearly busted. The daily price on SPX was wedged between the upper BB and the lower trendline. The upper BB won the battle as expected. At this time, given the position of the indicators I am not anticipating a backtest of the lower trendline (depending on how they manipulate the jobs number and the GDP number may disqualify that call).

The good news continues to be surprisingly ignored. I don't expect much today with jobs and GDP numbers still to come. Market may be pricing in some more bad news (remember when bad news was good news?).

The channels are very clear, but we have not left the GSEC yet (large channel that encompasses the rally off the bottom). The sky blue lines are the .25, .50 and .75 percent dividers of the channel. Pay attention to these areas as support/resistance spots. The next one below sits near 1013. The fibs for this fall are at 1115 (38%), 1008 (50%) and 1001 (62%). The BB 20 is at 1002 and the lower BB is at 973 on the daily.

Two weeks showing the breakdown. I can not make anything of the pattern yet coming out of the breakdown. I would like to see a lower low set so we can get a falling wedge going.

The GSEC - big channel.

I posted the monthly chart below so you can see the RSI at the trendline. This is something I have been watching for some time. Better viewed HERE.

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