Monday, August 24, 2009

My Thoughts On This XLF Top.

Yes, I said XLF top. I am sure some of you were beginning to wonder if that word was still in my vocabulary. Well, it is, but unfortunately I am seeing this as an intermediate top before further move up. 60m, daily and weeklys are tired and in the weekly chart below you can see the trendline XLF is appraoching.

To put it in a nutshell, I will play this as the big fall, but do not expect it to be. I have a 12.40 target then ramp up to new highs. I expect XLF to complete at least a 38% retracement of "the fall" around 17.42. This would mean a really happy end of the year for those in financials. It makes no sense I know, but this is what I think "they" have in store for us.

I expect the wedges in each chart to have the lower trendlines reset. Yes, they look like pretty complete wedges, but IMO the indicators are not set for any major tumble. No significant divergences have been set. I'll be watching the weekly RSI trendline as a key for the big one.

Notes are in the charts. Your feedback is appreciated.

GL trading.


  1. shank,

    ung looking a bit better
    notice slow stoch finally busted out after 2 weeks in purgatory

  2. shank,
    what's your best estimate for 12.40. is it Sept 8th per your chart?


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