My Thoughts On This XLF Top.

Yes, I said XLF top. I am sure some of you were beginning to wonder if that word was still in my vocabulary. Well, it is, but unfortunately I am seeing this as an intermediate top before further move up. 60m, daily and weeklys are tired and in the weekly chart below you can see the trendline XLF is appraoching.

To put it in a nutshell, I will play this as the big fall, but do not expect it to be. I have a 12.40 target then ramp up to new highs. I expect XLF to complete at least a 38% retracement of "the fall" around 17.42. This would mean a really happy end of the year for those in financials. It makes no sense I know, but this is what I think "they" have in store for us.

I expect the wedges in each chart to have the lower trendlines reset. Yes, they look like pretty complete wedges, but IMO the indicators are not set for any major tumble. No significant divergences have been set. I'll be watching the weekly RSI trendline as a key for the big one.

Notes are in the charts. Your feedback is appreciated.

GL trading.

Sniffing P3? CIT Goes Down, Mish Has A Topping Prediction And GOOG May Disapoint?

Wow, did not expect them to let CIT die (I may rant on that one later). GOOG may disappoint and Mish has another updated rally has ended or is ending post. Calc Risk has the most recent post on CIT and Prag Cap has a interesting post on another market collapse.

Mish - S&P 500 Rally Poised to End; Buy and Hold Still Bad Advice "Stock languishing for years is actually my "good scenario". My "bad scenario" is the bottom is not in. Thus I align myself with DeGraaf who says "the risk is to the downside”. At this juncture, I am quite comfortable holding similar views as DeGraaf."

Mish also gives and EWT update - well, not much of one - it is at the bottom of the last article. If you want a real EWT update go visit Kenny or Daneric.

UPDATE: Calc risk with -CIT: Government Support Unlikely with lots of updated CIT info and press release.

Zero Hedge reports in Game Over CIT "Finally one not too big to fail (not surprisingly, the one who services Main Street). How many billion in CDS was Goldman long CIT? Due to the lack of a 80% unionized workforce, Obama will not hold a press conference on how Steve Rattner will get the company out of chapter in 30-45 days."

Bloomberg Surveillance this am had a great interview about CIT this am if you care to listen. Orenbuch Says CIT Has 1% of Commercial Lending Market.

Ya think someone knew CIT was going down? The VIX was up today. TD comes to the rescue again in Stop Trading. "“That is remarkable,” Randy Frederick, head of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas, said of the tandem move by the S&P 500 and VIX today. “The VIX is expecting something here, either a pull back this afternoon or tomorrow.”"
Yeah, they were expecting jobs or a CIT failure.

Prag Cap - ANOTHER MARKET CRASH IN THE OFFING?

So is GOOG gonna miss tomorrow? Try this earnings cheat sheet from TechCrunch - Cheat Sheet For GOOG’s Second Quarter Earnings Later This Week. "Mahaney is somewhat bearish compared to the consensus view, perhaps because of the continued economic difficulties and the deep funk the advertising industry is in. He expects revenues to increase only 2 percent on an annual basis, and to decline 3 percent on a quarterly basis. (Last quarter was the first time Google ever reported a sequential drop in revenues)."

The dollar broke down thru a triangle pattern today and TBT went nuts to the upside (and of course UNG tumbled). Ya think some market manipulation was occurring ahead of the CIT announcement?

Sounds like tomorrow will be an interesting day.

GL trading.