Morning Post

Gotta go to the 3rd grade play this am, so I gotta do it tonight.

OK, I'm voting for some more downside. Yes, even though the futures are up 3+ at the time I am writing this and even though we are dealing with the most manipulated POS ever created. I have to go with what the charts say. Now, to clarify that, there are a few mixed signals, but sometimes you gotta make a call and I'm doing it.

VIX - Perfect backtest.



SPX - Perfect backtest of the wave 3 ED.



SPX Daily Chart - The divergences are still in tact, although hanging by a thread. The action in the MACD histogram makes me want to walk away and quit.

The E-minis are at their bear market top trendline.

Don't hold my feet to the fire on this call especially during earnings season. We shrugged off horrible unemployment numbers and whatever other crappy economic indicators that have hit this week and the march up continues. I just want a C leg down and a little more retracement and then we can march on. Probably a horrible call, but we'll see.

GL out there and have a great weekend.

Morning Post

On the e-minis we have set a lower high and a lower low. This differs from most of the indexes that set higher highs yesterday. 531,000 (+11,000) in unemployment claims. LOL, "earnings being overshadowed by data" Cuntonia says on CNBS. When will these people get it. I'm not sure how they can lie to us morning after morning with a straight face. Pissani reminds me of the kid you always wanted to beat up in school for being such the goober. What a dork.

As for a count, who the heck knows? I think we ended a three and are beginning 4 down now, but that could possibly be only 4 of 3 and not 4 of C. I will assume that this is 4 of C down for now and project a truncated fifth wave, thus the top could be in. What can screw up that count? You know who, the manipulators. I have ridden them all the way up and I am very skeptical going against them. So there could be more upside and it will be generated thru stimulus or some false data points that are a load of crap. Could that have been the top? Yes it could have been.

So lets look at where we are -

/ES 60m - This chart is an absolute mess. Sorry, but what happens at tops or major transitions is everything gets lost for a few weeks while new patters and trends develop. That is where I think we are right now. A lower high and lower low are for sure. Gap support (Gray rectangle) from 1073 to 1069 held the fall yesterday almost perfectly. The large yellow wedge has broken down and had a back test. Fib targets for the e-minis are 1055 to 1044 (yellow box). The wedge target is the red line near 1027. the lower blue line is the lower P2 trendline. Note that the fall yesterday pulled the e-minis back thru the upper bear market trendline (gray) and the upper P2 trendline like a knife thru butter. I thought there would have been more resistance.



SPX 60m - See the black boxes? These falls have happened a bunch on this run up, so this one may not be a reason to get to excited. It must develop into something more. You can see the fibs on the chart, so I am not going to regurgitate them here. You can see the divergences in the indicators, but what I want you to look at is CCI. I "Shankified" it to 200 and have found something that gives a more reliable sell signal.



SPX daily - The stockcharts viewers saw this chart the past few days and it has done me well. The false sell two days ago, the average 6 day topping trend and the wait for POMO to clear and get short yesterday afternoon call was pretty sporty. (Note the bottoms are trending to be only 2 to three days.) Further downside is expected (unless they juice the dollar). Now PAY ATTENTION here, the only thing that worries me about the follow thru on the downside here are the pink trendline on RSI and the red trendline under MACD. If they hold, a small pop (possibly a 2nd wave) we get. The interaction with these trendlines will be key for the next couple of days. MASSIVE SUPPORT IN THE BLUE BOX.



Watch the fibs, trendlines and gaps on the way down. My charts update real time on stockcharts and I usually and updating them throughout the day. If the fall persists I'll do a more detailed post. I see no reason why this fall does not make it to the prescribed retracement areas.

I added a video - look to the right. Thanks to PM on ZH for turning me on to it. Jump You Fuckers is the title and I really like it.



GL trading and thanks for the views.

Morning Post - Possible Sell Signals

I hoped you got to see "The Warning" last night on Frontline. If not please visit the PBS site here and learn how the bankster pigs in the name of greed and power really screwed up this country and shut down Brooksly Borne and her efforts to contain the contagion (derivatives market) that has caused the mess we are in now. If you think we'll ever get any sort of meaningful regulation of the financial markets, you have been smoking too many green shoots. If they ever decided to try to regulate the derivatives market it is guaranteed the 400+ trillion mess would surely collapse. Thus, we are left to either make it or break it, and I don't like our odds. Pretty good odds at getting a rant from me out of this though.

/ES 5m - The gray line is the bear market top trendline. The royal blue line is the top P2 (or overall market correction) trendline.



/ES 60m - You can see the interaction between the gray and blue trendlines better here as the e-minis consolidate between the two over the last few weeks. The breakdown out of the top of the wave C rising wedge (yellow) seen here is a good sign combined with the SPX indicators of some workable downside here (I am actually questioning if I should have called a top yesterday). The fib retracement for the fall is the yellow box from 1055 to 1044. The red line below the fib box is the target for the measured wedge move at 1027. Also note the lower P2 rising wedge lower trendline (royal blue) near 1013.



SPX daily chart - You all know this is my favorite chart cause the indicators IMHO tell the market moves the best. Most of the indicators have run up to their divergence lines and are (thankfully/hopefully) turning south now. IMO a possible sell signal was given yesterday, but I did not act on it as today is a POMO day and they usually guarantee a ramp job. I plan on shorting this afternoon if conditions persist. If I missed the opportunity to short yesterday, this fall should be good enough to jump in and get some action even if late.

SPX 60m - LOL, do ya'll remember the Mr. Microphone commercials from way back when? "Hey good looking, we'll be back to pick you up later!" Ha! Dig the hair and the clothes, priceless! Well welcome to the Mr. Megaphone market formation screaming loudly, "Hey, babe! I'm manipulated as hell and am gonna keep going up cause of extensive fraud and a total lack of regulation and there ain't shit you can do about it!"

Looks like 3 of C is topping and there are some nice divergences in the indicators. There are a whole bunch of fibs listed on this chart to use to measure the possible fall.



Note: On the statement I made above about contemplating a top call yesterday, bottom line is IMHO we're getting close. The interaction with the bear market top trendline on the e-minis, the overbought conditions, the price multiples, sentiment, insider selling, the indicators (except for the monthlys) and the fact that I believe we'll have a truncated 5th topping wave all lead me to believe the top could possible be set. We'll see. (EDIT- LOL, guess not. Hey, I had one of those "feelings". Let's call it a moment. A bad moment before a POMO day. I said almost but did not do it. About those feelings, they usually come a day early. One thing is for sure, I'll start screaming from the roof tops when I think the top is coming.)

Please read this - Unmask The Fed

Earnings Calendar from Briefing.com for your convenience.

GL out there.

Morning Post - VIX Heavy This AM

Earnings Calendar from Briefing.com for your convenience.

PPI numbers not good. Fears of deflation (LOL - who could not see that one coming CNBS?). AAPL is trading at an all time high? Amazing what greed can accomplish.

Want a good look inside the numbers of this BS manipulated rally? Those of you in denial about the manipulation "theme" need to read this and then get your head examined. From Zero Hedge - The 60% Rally In Perspective. Apparently most beating expectations on declining revenues is a good thing.

Do or die day today as the charts go. SPX has been beating its head against the upper BB all while backtesting the rising wedge. The Daily indicator's upper trendlines on the SPX are being tested. The VIX appears to have bottomed. The triangle target for the last correction on the e-minis has been met in after hours.

The Daily SPX indicators all have divergences and those trendlines set by those divergences must hold IMO.

It is time for 4 of 5 of C of P2 (or the last down wave before the final push to the top). The burning question is will 5 up truncate as I have speculated it would all along. So we get one more earnings pop and then the demise. Folks, earnings are not as good as you might believe. Revenues suck and companies can only cut so much before the truth comes out. That will be in the revisions you hear this quarter. I fully expect a bunch of warnings to come soon.

SPX Daily Indicator Chart - Just look at the indicators and the divergences.

VIX 60m - A nice close up view. Note the RSI divergence.



VIX Daily - Bottomed out with a pretty Long-legged or spinning top Doji indicating some indecision. Note the MACD histogram is flat and may turn up today.



VIX/VXX/VXZ comparison chart - For entertainment purposes only of course.

A New Long Term Dollar:SPX Chart

I threw together a new long term Dollar:SPX comparison chart. Two possible scenarios. 1) A possible H&S with a target of $40 or 2) A possible falling wedge with a target near a double top at $120. Yeah, that is a huge disparity, but that is what the chart says. I prefer the dollar going back to $120, but can you really leave the possibility of the dollar falling to $40 out of the question?

Fo those of you laughing about the possible H&S formation and the $40 price tag, please visit Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral'. "Greenlight Capital is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, the hedge-fund firm's manager David Einhorn said Monday, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries."

And Rumors Of The Dollar's Demise Have Not Been Greatly Exaggerated. "Nothing can stop the systemic annihilation of the dollar at this point absent a major exogenous event, or constipated European bureaucrats saying enough before one Euro can buy a few hundred million portraits of George Washington." and I believe this wholeheartedly. Now, who has been calling for a major "external" event since April? Shuh, that'd be me. This will not end without a war or something major out of "their" control occurring.

Look for RSI to bottom the way it has in the past with a slight divergence before any pop. Looks like sometime near the end of the year this pop might happen. If we get a big oversold condition like between '02 and '05, America will not be the same ever again.

IT SHOULD BE AS SIMPLE AS LOOKING FOR THE DIVERGENCE IN RSI TO BE SET, and none is in sight right now nor is RSI near where it likes to bottom historically. Thus, the dollar is not there NO MATTER WHAT COUNTS YOU MIGHT SEE (IMHO of course). I have a $USD chart that has the dollar in my wave 5 target area, but I am not biting long here. I was right on 8/31 when I posted there would be more downside, and I may be right looking for further downside here. At $74.50 I'll be getting interested.

Chart may be viewed here better.

Morning Post

Good morning. I trust everyone had a good weekend. Looks like the trend will continue and SPX will be throwing in yet another gap on this senseless journey to oblivion. Enjoy it while it lasts.

HERE is the earnings calendar for this week. AAPL tonight should keep the market up to flat today IMO. I'd watch for a potential pop late leading into the close.

I don't like what I feel (as a bear). Feels like 1200+ on SPX unless earnings surprise to the downside. That sounds like a horrible number, but it is only 113 points away on the SPX. Technically, this market is very overbought and is due at any time to turn. Things are really screwy if you ask me. The e-mini bear market top trendline held Friday and it may keep downward pressure on the market, but I'm not gonna hold my breath on this being any sort of major line in the sand. It could be, but...

/ES 60m - See the gray line with the 1095 spike thru it? that should be the major resistance for the mini's today. Once that busts I'll have to regroup. The 1104 to 1109 gap is next.



SPX Daily Indicator Chart - I do not like the position of the indicators. Running up or turning at some trendlines marking the divergences previously set. This would lead one to think something bad is coming soon. On the other hand, if these trendlines on the indicators give way, up, up, up we go and we have to start the divergence building cycle all over again.

SPX 30m - I hope we are in 3 of 5 of C of P2 or but most likely we're in 3 of 3 of C of P2.



This market really pisses me off. This is some screwy shit. Keep buying the dips and selling the rips. I'm a little off kilter as the dailys are proving to be unreliable indicators. This will be the SECOND whipsaw (if it happens) crushing the fall that should be occurring right now (thanks PPT!). If it takes out the trendlines that have set nice divergences and have kept the indicators hemmed in, I might go crazy, but at this time I am anticipating (incredulously) for that to happen.

GL trading.

The Kiss Of Death?

/ES weekly - See the big white channel? See the big pink trendlines below RSI and MACD?



/ES 60m - See the kiss of the white channel and the apparent allergic reaction?



SPY daily - This is a REALLY SIMPLE CHART.



It is "the top" of something LOL.

Morning Post

Cause of the office issues with the computers and various other things the post is a little different this am.

Relatively mellow post for me, cause I am very mellow now.

The chart below is the first one in my chartbook for a reason. It is simple, concise and rarely lies. It is a little busy now, but that will go away.

1) Price at the upper BB and backtesting the trendline.

2) RSI is at the C wedge trendline diverging from price and stalling or rolling over, plus it has struggled to get to this point.

3) S Sto is topping and looking for a bear cross.

4) ADX might be topping (for the third time on this launch), stopping just short of the stratosphere.

5) MACD usually confirms on this chart and is not ready or considering being ready at this time.

6) MACD histogram is not thinking about turning yet.

Add it all up and I say it looks toppy, but not quite ready to turn with any momo just yet, but the pieces are being put in place for a tradeable turn. The 60m chart has divergences set and the indicators are right for a turn. It looks like it is setting up for a turn later today or Monday, but watch the histogram. I'll be looking for the 1048 range should it fall and watching the form carefully.

IMO, no sense in playing the upside here but keeping the powder dry for the turn. If you are long, draw the stops a little tighter. Be patient and let it come to you. You can't force anything.

For the worst case, IMO, scenario is if RSI takes out that trendline with authority - look out. There is nothing that says this market or the indicators have to stop here. As long as that histogram is running so will the market.

GL today and have a great weekend. Thanks for supporting and viewing.

Don't forget to Unmask The Fed

Might Be An Active Day On The Blog

I'll be short as a mofo if we can get thru the bue and yellow dashed (with tight stops of course). Opex will get ya. Careful out there. I am still in cash.

Morning Post

Bug repellent? Is that top bear market trendline on the minis gonna have the stuff to repel this freight train? Does the fact that SPX blew out and closed above its upper BB mean anything these days? Futures are down a smidge, but after yesterdays run, who cares! GS numbers were good? Who da thunk that? Market selling off on that news? Now that is a surprise. Jobs were still miserable IMO (what's another 500K jobs lost?). Other numbers are all a bunch of crap. They are massaged to deliver what they want you to know/hear. CNBS struggling this am. Nice!

/ES 30m - There is the yellow wedge. The formation did end and dumped right out the end. I have added a potential (dashed yellow) lower trendline (that runs out to another possible convergence point.



SPX 15m chart - This chart has the fibs for a near term fall and shows the recent rally the best. This counts up to a 3, but that was a 5 top (like THE top) before I changed it last night. I'm struggling with this top thingy. POMO ends soon, but what freaking tricks (if any) do they have left for further manipulation?



SPX Daily Indicator Chart - Closed above upper BB and back into the rising wedge for the C leg of the correction. That was a ballsy move yesterday. RSI is right under its trendline and S Sto is rolling over.

Do we get a sell signal today? Possibly, but I thought we were gonna get one yesterday before market decided to have a party with out me being invited. Keep an eye on things. Every time the market turns up here it could be "the" top. The divergence in the weekly SPX MACD histogram is screaming top as loud as it can.

If the /ES takes out both the yellow dashed trendline and the upper bark blue top P2 line, that lower wedge line at 1030 may be the target. 1065, 1056 and 1048 are the fibs for SPX. There is good support at 1065 as well. The gaps in range are from 1077 to 1073 and 1060 to 1057 (that 1057 matches nicely with the 50% fib).

As for my count - either the top is in, we are in 3 of C, we are in 4 of 5 of C of 2 with one more pop left to 1121 (my target number) or we are in 2 of C with a wad of upside left that takes us to 1220. I really have no clue. All I know it is will top in some form or fashion soon. If it does not the upside will be mind boggling again (and maybe that is what we need to get the top).

GL today!

The Great Expanding Diagonal (with Gaps!)

Ok, don't confuse this chart with someone from Alabama's grille. There are more gaps here than Billy Bob's mama's got teeth! (I can say that being from the south).

What a better way to blow off this top than with a massive EXPANDING DIAGONALLLLLL (echo). Or, HEY it's football season, why not a MEGAPHONE! LOL, this is just funny as hell (NOT). I'm thinking we may actually be in a 3 of a 3 right now. Whoa! What wus that thud? Awwww, that's nuttin honey, just Uncle Benny thumpin the dollar one last time in the back room. Pay no tention to it.

Hey, my puter just said it dun ran out er .... yeller ink!



This is some stuff I'm ponderin. Cause that's whut we do down here. I'd be surprised if it crosses the bear market top trendline, but whay the hey? You know, anything is possible. Pigs are even flying down here these days.

(Is anyone else tired of moving fibs up like me????)

Too Pissed To Post

Sorry, but this rally has chafed me. No, I am not short and losing $$. I am not long and making $$. It is the simple fact that it is happening and why. Not gonna bitch about it tonight. I'm in to foul a mood right now.

Here is the Emini chart. My trendlines have been kickin it for weeks now. They are dead nuts on.

All I have to say is the yellow wedge looks complete. What do you think? Guess what - it most likely is not. LOL, that's funny (not). The daily indicators say you need to have your head checked if you are short. They were rolling over this am and whipped right up into a frenzy. Simply amazing. 20% unemployment, wage devaluation, no credit at all, the dollar is getting pummelled and the market just keeps on trucking. I mean they are ripping us off right in front of our faces and we are to stupid to give a shit. Mind boggling stuff. All is fair in love war and business.

Buy the dips and sell the rips is the only way now. Screw logic and any other theories of "it must fall". This market has proven it "must" not do anything but go up.

C ya in the AM.



No open positions - I WILL at the end of the great fall put ALL my money in GS and walk away. Safest place on earth for your $$ right there.

Morning Post - What Top LOL

NEWS FLASH - Websters has removed the word Top from the dictionary. It no longer exists.

They could not have whipsawed it any more perfectly with earnings. These guy are good. Run it up with PPT and BS economic data through the tough times and then let BS falsified earnings reports come in. Wow. Impressive is all I got to say.

From Bloomberg - JPMorgan Profit Surpasses Estimates on Fixed Income

From Bloomberg - Stocks, Oil Advance on China Exports, Intel; Dollar Retreats "Stocks rose, driving the MSCI World Index to a one-year high, and oil climbed as the decline in China’s exports slowed and Intel Corp.’s sales forecast topped analyst estimates. The Dollar Index slid to the lowest level since August 2008."

Santelli this am, "The next several quarters are not indicative of the next several years." Thus, he's giving you the "I told you so". Art, "The food is tainted."

This is really unbelievable. It is the biggest, most crooked, corrupt scandal in the history of the planet, ride it, but don't believe in it.

IMO - roll with the punches. As long as they continue to crush the dollar and funnel POMO funds in the back door, bears got not hope. LOL, if you thought JPM's earnings were good, wait till GS comes in.

/ES 60m - OK - the white trendline at the top of the chart is the bear market top trendline. This is the first significant backtest of the sky blue wedge. Last time it popped over the dark blue top P2 line it did not go far. Pink line is the 1004 gap.

I am struggling with the counts as this is either 5 of C or 2 of C. I really like 5 based on the way the /ES charts look, but the SPX still has room to run to get to the bear market trendline and lends to a 2 count.



SPX Daily Indicator Chart - What I see is that a near term top was being set. Even the weeklys were weak. These readings are totally ridiculous.



As for the speculation the market could run to 1200+, this weekly indicator chart is not complete. I am in the process of putting together some alternative scenarios and this is where they will be. How about 1228 top in June? LOL, that would be funny.

I ain't doing crap this week. Opex and GS earnings to come and the CNBS earnings parade. As Cartman would say, "Screw you guys. I'm going home." I'm in cash.

A Few Charts

Emini breakdown off of the double top. Question, will it backtest the wedge to complete a 5 wave sequence?



5m SPX chart - Is there a 5th leg up left to complete C? Is this just 4 of 5 of C of P2?

Morning Post - Wedge Cracked.

I am struggling with calling downside. I did get a higher high yesterday on the /ES, so my top on 10/12 has a chance to work in a couple of places. You all know me, Mr. Manipulation, and my feelings towards this market being rigged as all hell. On the cautious side I'm holding out for one more tiny pop. I did nibble on some SRS yesterday, so I am short. The 60m chart below is a good one. The daily indicators appear to be tiring, but have some room to run barring a quick turn. The dailys dominate my trading and where they go I follow. I'd love a turn here as that would set divergences in the weekly indicators.

See Call Trading Rises on Brokerage Firm Ahead of Earnings to understand my confusion on JPM and the base of my cautious stance.

My lady Meredith downgrades GS.

I'm gonna do a VIX post in a few minutes.

/ES 30m Chart below - If you need to familiarize yourself with a larger image of this charts scroll down. This is a zoom of where the top end of the rising yellow wedge (wave 5 of C of P2 (is what I am calling it). Red line was the last high at 1075. Blue line is the top trendline of the rising wedge (P2). Notice the rising wedge is breaking down.



/ES daily - What you can see on this chart is the upper bear market trendline (white) for the whole damn fall is at about 1095. The Upper P2 line and the bear market top line intersect on 10/26 at 1088. That could be interesting. Those inflection points work great sometimes. The pink line is the 1109 gap. So that is in the hood as well.



SPX 60m - Can you say backtest, divergences and sell signals all over the place? Why do I have an issue with this chart? See that period from mid July to mid August? 60m indicators can burn your ass.



SPX Daily chart - There is still a little room to run. RSI is weakening.

EARNINGS CALENDAR HERE, I highly suggest you know what is coming out and when.

NOTE: If (as CNBS is discussing) revenue actually matters as JNJ is showing, we may have topped indeed. This means falsified BS hope and pray rally has ended. Better numbers on lower revs is not good (esp like 4 qtrs in a row).

Remember That Convergience Point?

From the Inflection point post last week?

The dark blue line holding resistance now is the top P2 trendline. Red line was the prior high at 1075. I will begin entering shorts when the yellow wedge cracks. I'll have very tight stops if I do.

I do not like shorting going into earnings, but it is OK if you are disciplined, use stops and have a exit plan if it blows up.

As a bear I hate to think of how earnings will be manipulated these next few weeks, BUT just in case someone surprises to the downside I'll have powder dry and be ready to react (either way).

Yes, I said either way.

Morning Post

And what should I see to my surprise as I turn on the computer this morning? What's that? A new high on the Eminis? Are you serious? Does that mean Shanky took down a whole nother group of EWT top callers? Again? ROFLMAO. Remember that 1121 number? Keep your eye on it.

Holiday volume, should be a nothing day. You can stay in bed.

Hey TD, do I get to take Nic's spot on the guest posts now?

Now, is this the top? We'll have to see. I believe there is a little more upside yet, should be a pretty good sell off is coming soon. The way I count it this SHOULD BE 5 of 5 of C of P2. I see not other count. NOW can this 5 become a 9 or extend? Absolutely. The daily indicators say there is more room to run. (1121?)

From the emails I get the sense that some of you are confused and don't understand the possibility of more upside. To that I say, this is earnings season now. GS and the manipulators have set the estimate hurdles so low that Wee Man won't have any issues with getting over them. Comparing to previous quarters in '08 is an easy beat (it is next year when they have to compare apples to apples that things get really fugly).

/ES 60m - Remember that inflection point I mentioned last week? We're there. Wave 5 of C has put in a nice rising sedge (in yellow). It is meeting resistance at the PRIOR TOP at 1075 and from the upper P2 (dark blue) upper wedge trendline.



I'm off to do a more detailed post for later today. Be ready for me to throw out a bunch of stuff.

Enjoy your holiday (Even to those of you in Canada!). Mine is off to a great start!

Morning Post

Holiday Friday and Monday, so expect low volume (well, lower volume I should say).

I'm beginning to liken this to the party the Jews threw (as depicted in the movie) at the bottom of the mount while Moses went to pick up the Ten Commandments. We are worshiping false idols, having a rocking good time and really don't give a shit about anything. Well, guess what? Moses is about to come down from the mount and is gonna lay down the law and we'll be freaking lucky is we don't have to wonder for 40 more years in the desert before reaching our promised land. (Konichiwa!)

SPX daily indicator chart - Indicators look bullish but weak with some room to run.

SPX 60m chart - SPX clearly about to backtest the lower wedge line (or has depending on where you draw it). Indicators are topped but can embed. What I want you to see here is the lower red trendline. This is what I have been warning the bears about. The possibility that the P2 lower bear market trendline has simply been adjusted down, thus allowing for more upside later this year.

SPX weekly indicator chart - WARNING - bears may want to heed that big ass bullish candle SPX posted this week and the fact that most indicators are bullish or not confirming a rollover just yet. This is the chart that has kept me a bull all along. See yellow boxes? They show how much more they can run if they like. That long white candle may get it's doji counterpart next week for the reversal.

/ES 15m - Here is a drill down of the yellow rising wedge (wave 5 or part of wave 5 of C of P2 OR wave 2 of 1 of 1 of 3). You can see price sitting on support line right now.



/ES 60m - You can see the pink box that is the dreamer's inflection point where several lines converge at a double top. The dark blue line is the upper P2 bull market trendline. The next pink box will be where the upper pink wedge line meets the lower P2 support line near 1028 next week anticipating the backtest of the wedge or further breakdown.



SPX Support, Resistance, Gaps and Fibs - There are no upper fibs to speak of except the 1120 fib for the 50% retracement of the total fall. Lower fibs are 1051, 1045 and 1039. Resistance at 1072 and 1080. Support at 1065, 1052 and 1042. Gaps below around 1058 and 1041. More support will be provided by the daily lower BB at 1029 and the daily 50ma at 1027.

The daily indicators are still bullish and until they turn I'll remain bullish. The 60m indicators are giving sell signals and flashing red, but the dailys usually rule. Two options A) it rolls over here and the dailys whipsaw and turn south or B) there is a slight pullback and the 60m embed. That 1029 to 1020 range is gonna be a tough nut to crack. Good thing we have some possible impulsive 3 waves on deck.

GS earnings scare the hell out of me (as a bear) next week. One thing good that may come out of it (other than a totally pissed off rant out of me) is that they may further enrage the public and further damage sentiment. On the other hand, who goives a shit as long as we all are making money, right? You gotta ask yourself where our priorities are. Someone will have to pay the piper sooner than later.

I'll do a post later today to let you know if I take any positions ahead of the weekend. I hate swing trades, but if they are set up properly and protected they are worth the gamble IMO.

Pissani is a total moron.

A quick note about how I do these posts. After dropping off the kids I get here about 8:15. I screw around and go check out the hot chicks and then well motivated I get to work. I put an initial post together and post it. It has the basics. I then edit and add for about 30 minutes to get it right and try to have the final post done by 9:05 to 9:15. Since not checking out the hot chicks is not an option, that is as early as I can get 'er dun.

GL trading and have a great weekend.

Inflection Point?

See the pink box? That would be an intersection of the 1075 top (Red), the upper bull market wedge trendline (Royal Blue), the lower C wave wedge trendline (light blue) and the support line for this rise (wave 5?) (yellow).

So when you come back Tuesday, the market may have topped. Who knows? Keep an eye on the futures this weekend.

So The Options Are? (Not Many)

SPX 60m 9mo chart -



A) To please both the bulls and some of the bears - The red dashed line - could SPX be in a big bull channel? This option seems valid with two touches on both upper and lower parallel trendlines. On the weekly chart (see below) there is a little room left in the indicators for room to run so maybe end of Q1 is max upside with this scenario. (This is the prime case for a double top or new high in the 1Q of next year)

B) To further entice the bulls (only temporarily) - the pink lower tendline - Has the lower trendline been reset or was it a slight throw under? I have begged for this for months (see my original call below). The A-E rising wedge is in the E leg and running on fumes but some precious upside is still possible.

C) We have had a break of the P2 bear market lower trendline and a completed back test and the fall can commence.

D) They just continue to manipulate the hell out of the dollar and stock prices and none of this matters and we should just be good little boys and girls and buy, buy, buy like our capitalist pig overseers mandate us to.

Foregoing option D (we'll call that the "standard operating procedure"), I prefer C then B (and A is a possibility for the first leg of the fall scenario). I have called for a truncated (petering out) 5th wave (last run up) and that is where I think we are. This is the last leg up. I just can't see any other options technically that can bring more upside at this point. The only way for them to geet this puppy any higher is to have a fall to the 1000 to 950 range that resets the lower wedge line (here is my original call from June of this year).

Note the VIX's three false breakouts.

So at this moment, I have us in the final leg up. There are some connecting trendlines I'll show in the am post tomorrow on the /ES that may be the point of inflection near a 1075 double top that may just do the market in. I will be one trading day from my 10/12 top call.

SPX weekly Indicator chart - This is the chart that has kept me from being a false top calling prophet. The yellow boxes on the indicators show the room left for these indicators to run. Yes, it exists, still. I have begged and begged for RSI to set a divergence and we may just get a small one with this last pop up here. Other divergences already exist.



My SPX Daily Indicator chart does the best job of showing how this run is petering out and just how little room is left to run. The divergences on the indicators, their extreme levels and their relation to the supporting tendlines is screaming this is the blow off sucker punch.

I hope this helps (and I hope I am right).

I'll add this - IF the magic of TA works, there may be an enormous event this weekend or within a week or two that changes everything. I have been calling for an "external" event to rip the market away and TA has an uncanny ability of timing things. We'll see.

GL Trading.