Friday, August 29, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/30-30/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will as well. 

I'll update charts and post them in comments as the weekend goes. 

Charts are more than ready, and with Cameron's FF warning combined with all the other lies and other stuff it would not take much to send a shock wave. Holiday ramp mission complete, might they now move on to another phase? 

Monday will have its own post. 

Enjoy the holiday weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/29/2014 SPX /es

Not much to say this morning. Are the Russians invading or not? Global confusion reigns. potus is about to really mess with some things. GDP was raised? Yields are somewhere, anyone seen any yields? They got lost somewhere. Employment ... whatever. Housing up or down, depends on which way the wind is blowing I guess. Holiday ramp ends today. Dollar is in trouble. Shall I continue? I think you know most of the rest of the story. Next week should be very interesting. 

How screwed up are things and are we sure the yield curve is not 'really' inverted at this point? "For the first time in history, based on FRED data, the 30Y constant maturity yield is below the real GDP growth level..."

SPX Daily - I showed the daily doji correlation early yesterday (blue dots). Overthrow and negative divergences are apparent. Doji hammer combos are really not good. The holiday weekend is here. Today and especially Tuesday should be interesting. 

More to come below. 

Have a good holiday weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Morning Charts 08/28/2014 SPX /es

Well, this would be STB "event" worthy - Financially related and out of their control - a real exogenous event -  The Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin: Gazprom Begins Accepting Payment For Oil In Ruble, Yuan  - well, at least the first domino in a much larger scale. slow motion implosion.

"And yet, while both sides declared their operational readiness and eagerness to bypass the dollar entirely, such plans remained purely in the arena of monetary foreplay and the long awaited first shot across the Petrodollar bow was absent.
Until now."

Now is here. Damn good job Obummer, Military Industrial Complex and Fed fascists. You have brought the beginning to the end of the petrodollar - WRC status is now officially on the decline. Like a slow motion train wreck you could see coming years in advance, Nooooooooooooooooo - BLAM! Or, we can liken it to that large bug hitting the windshield of life - SPLAT! O is collectively racking up achievement after achievement on his scorecard for destruction of America. We all know he sucks, but in his world, he's totally kicking ass.

On tot he lie -

There really is a world of shit going down right now -  Take yesterday for example. Another record low volume day chocked full of low lights - I'll let ZH sum it all up - Confidence In Central Planning Saved With Last Second All Time High Ramp. This following the retail trader lockout yesterday. Yields? - uh, don't look now. GDP revision, could it happen?  There is no way they can manage the whirlwind of crap that is swirling around them now. Sure they are masters of their own universe, but it's just that, their universe, that's beginning to crumble. There are just too many balls in the air and things are starting to get dropped. Well, I say there is no way they can manage the situation  - don't forget they closed the "gates" a month or so ago - they do have a contingency plan in place.

I think they left the necessary quotes off the word 'experts' in this post title - Two experts warn correction could total 60%. Let me add that if this market corrects much more than 1% the flood gates will open. It won't stop magically at 60^.

SPX Monthly - 5.....4......3......2.......

STOP! Take another look at that chart. Take a step back and observe this run, where it is in relation to the past two tops. Easy ...... look at it, now you should be either sick to your stomach or really nervous. No bubbles here - valuations are just fine. Fucking insanity is what it is.

STB Xtra  - DOT Proposes Mandating Cars Broadcast Location, Direction and Speed throw this in with the coming mandatory phone cut off system and .... well ..... you know.

Go look at that chart again. Do it.


More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Morning Charts 08/27/2014 SPX /es

This is really important. Back in the weeks leading up to the 4th when I threatened to call a top (and subsequently got lucky I got kidney stones and went on vacation which kept me from calling it - we did get a really large correction though), I constantly ranted on the fact that getting out with your profits, all the way out, as into your mattress or out of the dollar and into alternative assets is what you should be considering. I warned of quick retreats and the dangers of evaporation of gains which was more than evident in late July.

Here we are ramping into the next holiday on a very similar trajectory as that of the 4th, but the divergences and conditions have actually worsened. You need to read this post - The Retail Trader Lockout - Today's 'Market' "Issues" Were Worse Than The Flash Crash. "For 39 minutes today, as we noted earlier, the US stock "market" broke. As Nanex details, a total of 1,384 symbols were affected as 100s of stocks trade with crossed NBBOs, practically eliminating any chance for retail traders to transact." If you think this is a 'one- off' event, you will be mistaken. If you think it is safe to play this thing to the top, and you will have a leisurely exit you may not.

Remember they closed the "gates" a month or so ago allowing them the ability to 'protect' your assets in their vaults. This was your unintended relinquishing control of your assets in their system. Do the words 'Capital Controls' ring a bell? They should ring a gong and start flashing red lights and alarms screaming in your head. When this thing finally cuts loose it's not gong to be any fun. Sure, we all may make hundreds of thousands on the way down (while they allow us to short), but when the TBTF's are failing are they going to allow you to have any of that well waited for cash? What good will it do to be sitting on a 6, 7 or 8 figure account if you can't touch it? 

Want to add to the absurdity - how far are we down the rabbit hole? It Begins: Council On Foreign Relations Proposes That "Central Banks Should Hand Consumers Cash Directly" The CFR must see some very real issues if this is being considered. Wait, we just went from not being able to get cash to having QE directly injected into our wallets? This would be Helicopter Ben times a gazillion? 

Just how bad is this economy if they are contemplating the Keynesian wet dream? If this news gets out to the entitled they won't be able to back off and will have to deliver 'or else' I'm thinking. It's the 'or else' part of that thought that is bothersome. Anyone know where all this cash is gonna come from? Is anyone gonna care if they increase the national debt by a few trillion? I don't think anyone (except the few and brave here on STB) would dare complain.

Want to see what I think is a good representation of what will go down? This by no means is directed racially, it is a skit, it is just a representation of what I think things would look like if they just started writing checks.

Embedded disabled it is so good - I seriously believe this is the end scenario that the Fed and CFR would be dreaming of -

Dave Chappelle Black Money 

On to the lie - 

GDP revision - no way, impossible, like that's never happened before - you know over promise and under deliver - 4% should be upped to double digits if you ask me! Who cares, whatever,  consumer Sentiment is through the roof! All is well. Holiday ramp is in full ramp mode - well, it was. Can't have all those folks at home worried about their retirement assets and investments - hey, I got an idea - why not have the CFR spread a rumor they are gonna start just giving cash to everyone - straight cash homie! That would be awesome!

SPX 60m - Falling off a cliff. Well, the indicators are at least. So, does this run up only resemble the first leg up of the last ramp? Do we have a few weeks of churn to come, or is this thing ready for a stone cold reversal? This puppy ain't going south (even if the market breaks like yesterday) without some sort of threatening news I'm afraid. Who knows, maybe some sort of reality is coming back to the old market?

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Morning Charts 08/26/2014 SPX /es

Sort of an old school  STB Afternoon Delight format for you this morning. 

Sad but true - you need to read this if you have not - 10 George Orwell Quotes That Predicted Life In 2014 America. Horrifying is a word that comes to mind. 

It took a study to figure this out? Dumb & Dumber - Scientific Proof That People Are Getting 'Stupider'

You ain't gonna believe this - real life good news! This is not a joke - California’s Firearms Waiting Period Deemed Unconstitutional

Cause it would never happen, but is eye opening to read about -  The New Misery Index -  "Since the Status Quo figured out how to game unemployment and inflation to the point that these metrics are meaningless except as a meta-measure of centralized perception management, the Misery Index has lost its meaning as well."

On to the lie - 

S&P Makes History On Lowest Volume Of The Year - It's not Xmas yet is it? Whatever - just find a holiday and ramp. 

SPX Weekly - This chart is just about to/has/is violating everything. Well, it tried to do its job, and they pulled it back for now. They got a while to the next holiday after this one. Could be time to get ur hardhats out of storage. 

STB Xtra Coverage - 

Hmmmm, I was wondering about this last week, finally getting serious about that Ebola outbreak? Quarantined at gunpoint, desperate and hungry, the ordeal of the West African towns in quarantine because of Ebola epidemic

  • Volunteers are being paid four pounds a day to sterilize and bury bodies of Ebola victims in Kenema, Sierra Leone 
  • Rigorous quarantine measures being used to stop the virus spreading, as those affected reaches 2,615 worldwide
  • In Liberia, soldiers have created weapon-guarded blockades to ensure thousands of residents stay in quarantine
  • Some 20,000 have been left desperate for food as they wait for rationed deliveries to arrive from the government  
  • The enforced quarantines have created ghost towns around the area, as authorities try to stop spread of the virus 

And in the "I feel safe" file - Android App Takes Down Heart of National Weather Service Website

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, August 25, 2014

Morning Charts 08/25/2014 SPX /es

Baffled by BS, that's about all that's going on now. Never mind that global financial security and dominance hangs in the balance. Greed has led to corruption at the highest levels, and this has led to the web of lies that's all that's left holding everything together now. 

2,000 SPX - focus on that like a hypnotist's golden watch. Good, good, you are getting sleepy now. Just focus on 2,000. What the hypnotists don't tell you is that they never intend on waking you up. They must have you in an unconscious state where you're capable of being programed.They can't allow any independent thinking at this time. Those folks (like us here at STB) are dangerous terrorists.

For all the hot action this morning, following a so far very forgettable Jackson Hole non-event, see S&P 500 To Rise Above 2000 On Hopes Euro Collapse Accelerates, Euro Yields Hit New Records. I'll summarize the post with this quote, "All in all, a typical day in Europe's slow-motion implosion." Add this to France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government and our focus may need to shift overseas and to gold and the dollar. 

I'll add another ZH post to the above that hits on the STB 'Bail on the Lame Duck' meme I've been proposing. This is right in line, a complete and utter throw Obummer under the bus, but this time it's coming from inside his own camp. Cornel West Blasts Obama Is A "Brown-Faced Clinton", A "Post-Traumatic Depression" Will Follow is a pretty damning (accurate) post from someone that was supposedly directly in line with our socialist leader, 

"The thing is, [Obama] posed as a progressive and turned out to be counterfeit. We ended up with a Wall Street presidency, a drone presidency, a national security presidency. The torturers go free. The Wall Street executives go free... we ended up with a brown-faced Clinton. Another opportunist. Another neoliberal opportunist... So you got low-quality black leadership. Al Sharpton is who? He’s a cheerleader for Obama... Eric Holder won’t touch the Wall Street executives; they’re his friends... I think a post-Obama America is an America in post-traumatic depression."
The meltdown is coming. The rats are bailing ship. potus is off "course" (vacation/golf course) and back in DC now where he is most dangerous - especially without Congress. This is when he does his most damage (think executive order). I think Wall St. is terrified of him at this point as they should be. 

potus (notice I do not capitalize this cause I have absolutely no respect for the office at this time) must make waves, and waves he will make. He's got to do something to save face. No telling what that will be, but could a banker go to jail? Is he about to turn his corrupt justice department on the financial wizards of Wall St.? I think this is a real possibility. If he does, you know he'll be JFK'd and BAM his place in history is secured as the nation rips apart at the seams. More on this thought to come.

On to the lie - 

Keep your eye on 2,000. Just watch 2,000. Good, now you are getting seeeeeepy.

Daily SPX - They are about to either have another improbable overthrow (the 6th since January 2013), or the double top with some horrific negative divergences is about to get revenge. Notice that one of my favorite pre-turn indicators (the MACD Histogram) set a lower bar Friday. The indicators definitely did not 'buy' this last ramp. In normal, historical conditions this is a point where I'd be lining up the shorts for entry in a big way. Sadly, anything normal and historical got thrown out with the baby and the bathwater in 2010.

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, August 22, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/23-24/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it. I'll do the same. 

I'll update some charts over the weekend. 

Jackson hole still in play. Russia/Ukraine in play. Is ISIS in play for coming 9/11 anniversary? 

That last thought is an interesting thought when summed up like below. 

Gov't Fear Factory: ISIS Is Here, Just in Time for Another 9/11 Anniversary

Thanks for another great week ion the blog. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/22/2014 SPX /es

Jackson Hole, no more, no less, nothing else matters or will move markets from now till this is over. About the only thing that can derail the coming Labor Day ramp will be bad news from the Fed. Lord help the bears if the Fed does everything right. 

It appears all they want us to focus on the interest rate issue. You know, since inflation is such a real concern. Well, inflation is here to stay where it matters as far as consumers are concerned. Of course with 35% of the nation (that's 109 million fyi) on welfare and growing, what does a little real inflation matter? It doesn't matter how you calculate these things anyway, whatever suits your immediate need can be included or excluded from any computation these days. 

Apparently a few have been given the job of being token Hawks. Sorry for them, but someone has to do it. They will take the side some of us need to hear, while the doves will rule the day, please everyone and make the markets rejoice. We've heard it all before, and they can't change their story now. That would be certain suicide. They are trapped. They know it. They will tow the line until the end. 

I have to mention this for a minute - Microbial life found living on the exterior of the International Space Station, say report. You do realize the big ass can of worms this could open up if true, right? For now the Russians claim it, and NASA is denying it. What would you expect from NASA? So, is this part of Russian global politics? Could it really be true? Are we actually a step closer to disclosure? You know that would make me happy. 

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - Not sure what good charts will do between now and Labor day, but you never know. As mentioned, some of the indicators are definitely not buying this ramp. They sniff 2000, it is easily in their sights now. Bottom line is the setup that could come with the next holiday ramp may make the on on the 4th look pale in comparison.

Bullish Percent SPX - Not so happy is it? Funny to see BP crash while the market soars.

We're getting closer.

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Morning Charts 08/21/2014 SPX /es

Typical of the MSM, if it is not selling or on a "not necessary" or "need to know" list - it does not get reported.

Ebola ran its course in the MSM. It got tired and old and was no longer bringing in the viewers so they went on to Ferguson. Ebola quietly is becoming a very relevant issue. "The crackdown in Liberia comes as authorities around the world are scrambling to stem the worst-ever outbreak of Ebola, with the latest official toll jumping 106 in two days to 1,350 dead." That's from Liberia's Ebola clampdown turns violent as Asia fears new cases. You run into real problems when you don't react to a problem. In this case the authorities in Africa, with the CDC and WHO apparently discounted the potential of a real outbreak. 

"Four residents were injured in Monrovia's West Point slum when soldiers opened fire and used tear gas on crowds as they tried to evacuate a state official and her family from the quarantined quarter." Bottom line is this thing is so out of control they have sealed off a section of a town and are basically saying - you are all going to die - good luck. What sort of response do you think you are going to get in this situation?

Now flights are being banned. Countries are being cut off. Shit's getting real is the best way to describe things. We're not far from this situation causing real economic issues. I guess when the gold mines and towns are directly effected the world will notice. Till then, everything is under control, they promise. 

On to the IS issue. This ran its course through the MSM as well. The truth was never really told about who IS is, how they came to be or got all those fancy American weapons. Well, the truth was not told in the MSM to any real degree that I saw. This is another "need to know" issue. Now that we're finally taking aggression against our creation, the MSM is jumping back in. IS is a big deal as well. Them controlling a major dam in MENA was apparently not an option and we took action. If they had blown that up oil would have really been effected. We can't have that now can we?

Now to Ferguson, will someone please explain to me how the oversight of the officer's face being bashed in before he shot the charging stoned man got left out of the equation? I guess this was "need to know" as well? My favorite thought about the developments of Ferguson - so, they had the funds and time to get all the weapons, gear and armored vehicles in but did not have time to get the video equipment installed on all their cruisers? Really? Priorities?

What happened to that immigration issue? See how quickly they can make things disappear? 

Maybe you should read 7 Things About The Mainstream Media That They Do Not Want You To Know. Or this "Sharyl Attkisson, who also served as a correspondent with CNN, suggested that real investigative journalism is disappearing in mainstream media due to the current editorial trend to push stories in an unnatural direction in order to serve establishment agendas." from Former CBS Reporter Agrees: Mainstream Media Manipulated, Controlled by Establishment. Maybe you need to Google Operation Mockingbird? Oh, and don't forget they wanted to put monitors in newsrooms but got denied (this time). Goebbels would be proud of his creation.

So, I come away from all of this with a lot of why, why now and how questions? Bizarre when you really think about it. The possibilities of conspiracy theory becoming fact are quite real here. I could have taken this post down many roads (that all seem to be joining into one). Eugenics, gun control, media control, total control - sustainable development and Agenda 21 come to mind. Their (UN) damn blueprint is in a friggin website for us all to read on the internet. I warn again, you need to start putting two and two together. Where we're headed is a place we don't want to go. 

On to the lie - 

Guess who got his chartbook back yesterday? Bout time I'd say. I also got the new computer in the office up and running. I've had the kidney stones blasted. No wonder I've been MIA this week. 

Dollar - it is exploding. Does not look like it here, but big move over the past three weeks has to be noted, and so should these wedges on this chart. 

SPX Daily - The move in the dollar here (dashed grey) is a bit more dramatic. Not sure how a strengthening dollar is good for the market (these days). UST may be stabilizing, but its weakness needs to be noted as well. Instability is not good for the Fed. Double top and some (severe) neg divs persist. Are they going for another overthrow? Dangerous times to be playing with firs, which is safer than playing with this market.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Morning Charts 08/20/2014 SPX /es

Long day for STB yesterday. Sorry, not much of a post again this morning, but things should be back to normal tomorrow morning. I should have my chartbook back up and running (according to SC) today. I should also be buying and installing a new PC at the office today.

Really not much of a need for any sort of technical post except to maybe put an over/under number on how long it takes them to get to higher highs. Technically at that point things will get interesting again. Do they go for a 6th overthrow? Do we get a real double top? Volatility occurs surrounding tops as well as irrational behavior. We're getting both now, but that's nothing new is it?

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Morning Charts 08/19/2014 SPX /es

Well, yesterday was wasted, and today will not be much better. I go for my stone blasting this morning. By the time the market opens I hope to be out and recovering at home. No guarantees, but I'm first on the docket at 7:30. I'll be on travel computer when I get home. I hope to be in the office later, but really not sure what to expect. I did not get to purchase a new work computer yesterday. I tried, but due to pre-op timing this will have to happen tomorrow or Wednesday. Of course SC does not have my chartbook up yet. Told you this would be an issue. Their service is terrible.

FOMC notes, Jackson Hole, Labor day, Halloween - (complete holiday list - LOL) any excuse possible to keep the HFT algos in line as they co-locate. We are close enough to start Labor Day ramp - Just look back at the 4th. I will have to check the technical setup to see if it will be as devastating as it was in July.

No news is good news, and #Ferguson has everyone distracted .Idiots I talk to are brainwashed by ATH. Questions I get on the street are totally ignorant and void of anything that could be construed as negative. A good example are the AFL fans here in Columbus (where AFL is HQ'd). Do they know about Japan's debt/gdp? No. Yen/USD issues? No. Fukushima issues? Nope. (think cancer insurance risk!) A plethora of other issues such as aging population, savings, trade deficits, qe4eva? Nope. Those issues cover Japan where 70% of their business is done and and enormous amount of cash sits in Yen not being repatriated. Shall we address the issues with supplemental (ie- you pay xtra) insurance in this economy? Paying more for insurance .... hmmmm that will go over really well with Ocare kicking in. Fantasyland folks, just keep those blinders on.

It appears we're now in the final sentiment stage. Not that long ago fear was the dominant tone. Now we are in that blow off bulltrap phase that gigs 'em all every time. Be my guest. The sooner the better. Looks to me that the STB bill/bear line has been dusted and that only means one thing - ATH baby. Barring an enormous news bite in the next two weeks this train should only go in one direction. There should be a really nasty double top divergence if we get there. Blown thru several of those haven't we. Enough to where I'm now numb to the setup.

I'll get my chartbook back sooner than later I hope. I miss it and I know a bunch of you do as well.

I'll get on as soon as I can in the morning to give updates on the procedure. Till then, thanks for being here and holding down the fort.

Almost forgot - My BP went thru the roof at pre-op yesterday when they started discussing the cost of my procedure - ready for this - what will be billed by the hospital in order to get a realistic settlement to cover cost? Ready for this? For me to have my stone blasted in an ESWL will cost $33,000. My BP went to 155 over something, not for the cost, but for facing the reality of how fucked up the system is. $33k. $33 friggin K. I was floored. I have read and heard stories, but experiencing it first hand was completely overwhelming.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, August 18, 2014

Morning Charts 08/22814 SPX /es

Not much has changed from last week. So, I'll leave it at that. OBTW, not surprising that Stockcharts has not restored my chartlist yet. The work computer is dead and will be replaced today I'm guessing.

That's about all I got.

More to come below (cause there was certainly not much up here).

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Friday, August 15, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/16-17/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it post it. I will as well.

I plan on having my SC account back soon and will update what's needed.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/15/2014 SPX /es

Early post

SC still has not given me my chartbook back. Go figure.

Not much to say and have to take LS2 to ortho apt (broke something at football yesterday) this morning, so I'm not sure what you will get or when I'll be in this morning.

Minis took the rising wedge (possible bear flag) and overthrew it late yesterday after a rather dull super low volume day. Not sure what caused the late ramp, but that 1949-53 resistance area and the 61% retracement were proving their metal all day. Price has entered my bull/bear line zone. Now almost 70 points off the last low at critical support (who'd a thunk it), so far it looks like the Fed is on track and has dodged another bullet while not allowing a meaningful retracement. We'll have to see about that. Right now it looks like mr. market may want to say something about that. We'll see.

More to come below.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Morning Charts 08/14/14 SPX /es

I know, I know, my charts are missing. Short version of a long story, I temporarily lost my wallet early last week and cancelled CCs in it before we left town. My SC account was up for renewal and in the process of charging/un-charging my membership with SC (that Visa screwed up royally), I am now not an active member of SC as of yesterday evening. I am working to get this cleared up and my account back. I hoped to have this done by this morning, but now I'm not sure how long this will take. SC has a horrific track record at servicing my needs in the past, and I don't expect this 6 year HoF sub to get any special treatment.

Continuing with a recent theme STB has been on - Hammering Obama: Hillary has only begun - it's fixing to be a long cold two lame duck years in the white house. O and Biden are gonna wish global warming were real, cause that's about the only warmth they will find going forward (and we all now know that global warming is a myth by now, right?).

Yes, it appears everyone, even the press is ready to move on from this loser. Rift grows between Obama, media as press groups blast administration ‘spin’ - ya think O's version of Baghdad Bob Carney knew when the time to jump ship was right? After years of lies and abuse, he's about to get what's coming to him.

Unless - God I hate this part - unless, he's truly the tyrannical psychopath we all fear know he is. It was just yesterday that Reporters arrested in Ferguson. What? Yes, they refused to leave a McDonalds. What? Yes, Obummer's local troops in full riot gear arrested two reporters for not evacuating a Mickey D's fast enough. Can you say intimidation of the press?

I guess when you report on police business and get to close to something you are reminded where you stand as a human being - excuse me - I mean a sheeple. Ferguson is turning out to be quite the display for how we are to be treated if we are to get out of line. Read Militarized cops on display in Ferguson riots. So the used military equipment is not only going to the terrorists in the Middle East, but to the terrorists police at home as well. We can't have all this used equipment fall into the wrong hands you know.

What this psycho is capable of is terrifying, and when he comes under the immense pressure of protecting his 'legacy' or trying to make one or whatever - who knows what's going to happen? Right now he's done more harm than good. It's truly scary to think of how much more damage he can do in these last two tumultuous years ahead.

And your stat of the day - Obama’s one achievement — outgolfing Tiger Woods

"As Barack “Eldrick” Obama approaches his 200th round of golf since his election as president, here’s a fact to put that into perspective: Since January 2009, Tiger Woods has played 269 rounds of golf.

And Tiger, beleaguered by injury, is almost certainly done for the year. So that means the president, if he keeps up with his pace of play during his 15-day vacation in Martha’s Vineyard (a round a day) and his normal weekly round, will pass Tiger sometime next spring.

Think about that for a minute. The president of the U.S., juggling the American economy and the entire world’s problems — Iraq is in full meltdown, the Middle East is a powder keg, Russia is moving on Ukraine — has played golf nearly as much as a guy whose day job is playing golf."

Maybe it is best if he just stays on the golf course. Sadly that's not going to happen. Obozo is making a surprise return to the white house from vacation this weekend. WTF could he be coming back to screw up now? Please O, stay. No need to come back anytime soon. You just hang out there, tick off all the local golfers and soak in the social scene. We're doing just fine without you.

On to the lie -

Markets know all this turmoil is coming surrounding our leadership - leadership that has been proven to be more than substandard (and that's being kind). Markets know that we have two more years of this to deal with. If a presidential election were to be held this year I believe we'd be awash with a new 'hope' and that any sort of 'change' would be gleefully welcomed by all including the markets at this level. Sadly that is not the case.

It is no secret that the globe is in meltdown mode and we're not the global leader we used to be. Apparently bombs and bullets no longer intimidate, they irritate. Apparently everyone else now wants a piece of our pie and they are not asking for permission, they are taking it. That is not how things are supposed to work. Empires come and go, and our time is just about up. The markets know this. 

I've been discussing nervous markets since before the 4th. I got the fall I was looking for, now what? Price fell to critical support and is now struggling to rebound. That is if you call the minis 60 points up off the lows struggling (it feels that way). The minis have entered my bull/bear resistance zone and 1953 will be the first resistance test. The Fed does not have it as easy these days at lifting price as they used to.

News. What's the only thing that's stopped the Fed? News. Who wants total control over the MSM? Are you starting to put two and two together? Let the lies perpetuate, keep the sheeple in the dark. One day it all goes POOF, we all sit around and wonder why and next thing we know militarized police are everywhere as they implement capital controls for the "good of the country".

Wake up folks. Things are bout to get nasty.

Watch this area around 1953 on the minis. Cash resistance area started as well. Cash resistance area runs up to 1964, Without any turmoil they should be able to manage at least a double top, but one bad news bite and this lie is set to fall at the speed of gravity (impossible I know - just like a previous lie).

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Morning Charts 08/13/14 SPX /es

How bout this - Just The Right Amount Of Bad Overnight News To Ramp Global Equities LooooL, here we go again. Bad = Good v 2.0. Lord let's hope not. The BS train was tough enough to deal with the first three years. Please, let's not go there again. I so thought we may be beyond this. Apparently the Fed has some moar hanging on to do. Someone should tell Yellen and Obummer desperation is not a quality that one wants to flaunt.

Not much else to say this morning or that I want to elaborate on. The world continues its downward spiral. So many things falling apart I can't even list them in a simple post anymore. It's hard to even pick what's the hottest issue. At least these days it is not as hard to spot the lies and propaganda.

I do reassert my belief that the market is very nervous and rightfully so. Overbought, liquidity driven, hot air filled markets do not like lame duck potus, coming elections, failed foreign policy, failed domestic policy, unsustainable debt and the lot. Shall we discuss the coming destruction of the dollar? Oil, gold, interest rate manipulation? It's a complete mess and mr. market senses this and is finally starting to assert some semblance of reality. By no means does this mean the Fed is through with their games, it does mean they will struggle to achieve their desired results like never before.

On to the lie -

Daily SPX - That 20/50 bear cross is not a good thing with price coming off critical support and backtesting prior support. Near tern oversold she was and still is to a degree, but long term she's still in outer orbit as far as being overbought. One 'event', one slip here and they all know the algos are gonna go nuts. Man I bet this is some tense times at the control center. Good thing everyone is on vacation!

No form yet and the BTFD ramp stalled. I'm curious to see what the bears can muster here and what the Fed and the TBTF will counter with. This is another potential really good short point. I'm simply gonna watch and digest what's going on at this time. Any momo south and that 200 dma comes into play which busts all meaningful support and I'm sure kicks in some sell stop action. Any momo north here and the squeeze will be on again. On cash up to 1964ish and the bears still have the ball IMO.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Morning Charts 08/12/14 SPX /es

Maybe the best development since Pelosi had her meltdown is this Obummer/Hildabeast spat. Isn't it only appropriate that after all the fuckups over the past 6 years (that can not be blamed on Bush) it comes down to internal party bickering and one huge pissing match. We're finally seeing the true colors of the Obummer/Clinton love fest.

In Exclusive: Obama Told Lawmakers Criticism of His Syria Policy is 'Horsesh*t' the ballless wonder finally stands up to ... something? Right or wrong, good or bad target, political lines or not - he finally stands up. Of course everyone is wrong and lying, but that does not matter. The meltdown is priceless. The loss of composure and not eating crow for the democrap party is surprising. The division and coming meltdown is long overdue.

Clinton sees the light and is going to distance herself as far as she can from the lame duck, and guess what - all those that want to be in her good graces are about to abandon O as well. We're getting ready to see a party split wider than the Grand Canyon. You are about to see a president completely and utterly abandoned.Hildabeast will start collecting her stooges - what will Pelosi and Reid do at this point? Do their allegiances start to change? This is going to get good.

O's not gonna have a leg to stand on. The Clinton's are putting the gloves on and going for an early knockout. He's not even a two legged stool - maybe one leg at best. He's about to get roasted. How he fires back is the big question - that may be the scariest part. How deep can he go into rhetoric to defend himself without exposing both of their crimes (think especially Benghazi and ISIS). This destroys everything (which would only be just and right). He's screwed and about to be made irrelevant (if that is even more possible).

Race card? He can't even use that. He's screwed everyone. His puppetness has done his masters bidding and done his best to destroy this country. What happened to hope and change? Well hope went out the window (especially for his low income supporters) and change - one would think Bush/Cheyney are still in office but worse.

Things are about to get interesting me thinks. Captain transparency that became a known liar and vacation/golf addict is about to be served up with a well deserved side of reality.

On to the lie -

SPX Daily - Well the February sell off made it 100 SPX points, I guess 80 points will have to do this round. Pretty pathetic to call that a correction or even categorize it as some sort of downside move. They could not allow even 1/2 of a percent. And think of the fear that puny little move generated.

What's interesting is this backtest of the black busted support diagonal (this is the equivalent to my Red Diagonal of Death on the minis). If the bears can hold 'em here something real may go down. I'm not holding my breath, just saying we now live in a world and play in a market that has the real possibility of going POOF! at any moment.We have to check these backtests like it or not.

Despite the lack of positive divergences they turned it (so far) without any necessary assistance. My MACH histogram signal (first day following up day reversal) worked nicely. Put this one in your memory banks. It is not fool proof but has worked with a high degree of accuracy over the years.

SPX 60m - Double positive divergences worked well for Bully's cause here. I think the bears have the ball still, at least to 1965. The 58 to 65 area may be the next battleground. For them to push it over that upper black resistance diagonal again would really be something. The 60m chart is already showing overbought to some degree. No form can be detected yet in this up move. If anything at this time a bear flag may be forming. Bully would have liked to see a base channel form but did not get it.

What's the Fed got left in the tank? Are they ready to throw in the towel, or do they have more work theft to be done?

More to come below.

Have a good day.

G: and GB!

Monday, August 11, 2014

Morning Charts 08/11/14 SPX /es

Obummer is on vacation - again - Something tells me he will still screw something up while away. Till then, his absence (and that of Congress) may be a positive for markets. Why not, the two most unpopular aspects of the country are out of the picture at least for a bit. Global tensions still on high, but MSM doing a fantastic job minimizing (or disappearing) as many negatives as possible.

Daily SPX - Like I said the MACD Histogram had not turned positive till Friday - this is one of my favorite early turn signals. That with multiple other oversold indicators may provide at least a near term boost for equities. Danger still exists, but right now it appears tehy will take up the slack at this critical support point and do their best to march 'forward'.

More to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Friday, August 8, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/09-10/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

LOL - almost forgot to do this post. that would have been bad.

Interesting week. Bear party all week - well, till Friday at least. What a treat! just enough to pile us all in and get the slaughterhouse ready I suspect, but you never know. Everything is news driven, so no news bites and things will 'normalize' somewhat I'd assume. Still, we're not far from support and heartbreak city. We're also not far from some real fear that seems to be coming in droves these days (rightfully or not).

If you see it share it. I'll so the same. I'll dip into the chartbook. I should find the time with the PGA on.

Thanks to all for another exceptional week on the blog - great job by all.

Have a great weekend.

GLa nd GB.

Morning Charts 08/08/14 SPX /es

Well, back during the run up to the 4th I was warning of what was coming. I wanted to call the top, was gonna call it, got hung up with an infected nose, kidney stones and a lengthily trip to CO with 4 kids and never pulled the trigger. Bottom line is my spidey sense is still in tact. Their game can be as easy to call as I remember. Perfect technical tops still exist. 

Geopolitical and domestic troubles have been weighing on the markets, a potus bent on destruction of the country with a congress on vacation and coming election jitters - with the WRC being challenged like it never has before - all in a horrifically overbought market and the Fed struggling - is it a wonder we're testing cracking critical support here?

Now what is the big question? Critical diagonal support just cracked. The minis printed an 18 handle yesterday. The weekly 20, Daily 100 and 4hr 200 ma's are all getting tagged here. Yesterday I mentioned a gap down open to take this support structure out that can't be taken out during open hours. Well, we may get that. What's about to go down? Or up?

Does the Fed have the juice left to lift? Banks, algos, HFT, PPT, so many tools - where are they all? Where did they go? Is it time for some really dovish Fed speak?  I get a pullback to suck in some shorts for slaughter, but is this another scenario? I do know that these MA levels for the past two years have marked close to every bottom. Will they again? 

Or, are they ready to let it go? Or, have they actually lost control? Or, is this just another correction (a rare event) that we're all freaking out about? WTF is going on? 

I wanted 1904, stuck with it and got it. Now they are exceeding my expectations which is taking me back a little bit. I'm not surprised given the circumstances. This fall is way overdue and more than deserving. The problem is, where is the Fed? That's what has me more worried than anything. They CAN NOT let the markets fail (especially going into an election), and sub 1886 minis and sub all these critical MA's there will be some sell stops hit (think margin calls soon).

Let's see what Friday brings. The news is not good and apparently getting worse by the day. It does not look good, not good at all.

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - I darkened the 100ma on the chart. TRIX is the only indicator not ready or severely oversold. Does the 200ma at 1861 come into play here? It has to be the next significant meaningful target - and the last straw.

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Morning Charts 08/07/14 SPX /es

If you don't visit STB late night, you should. All sorts of great info flows in the evenings when the topics can run a bit wild. 

I really don't have much to say or elaborate on that I have not been covering since before the 4th. Things are continuing to escalate globally, and domestically things are not getting much better either. 

RC went hog wild after seeing this last night in the comments section - US Dependent on Russia for NASA Launches; Well, Guess What? Russia Fires Back With More Sanctions: NASA, Pepsi, McDonald's, Autos in Spotlight.  

Apparently Obummer has really screwed the pooch this time. Talk about a no win situation.Now the idiot has pissed off the Russians and his corporate mafia. I'm not sure there is anyone left he can anlienate at this point. 

Is it any wonder the 'markets' are starting to act a bit nervous? I mean they are at critical support, the point where levered bounces materialize out of thin air and reassure everyone that the recovery is for real. Sorry, to assume that the markets are 'reacting' to something negative would infer that there is some sort of reality involved. 

Is the MATRIX finally showing signs of a glitch? 

On to the lie - 

Yesterday I was thinking about an ABC correction on the minis. I'm looking at my bull/bear lines (62% retracements) to judge who has the ball. Right now, you could say I'm laying in the weeds watching closely to see if anything develops here or in the near future. 

SPX 30m - Fairly good look at the near term action. Three gaps above? What are we on another planet?

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Morning Charts 08/06/14 SPX /es

What day is it? Hump Day!

Confusion reigns in a nervous market. Not good when sitting on critical support, and the Fed is exposed and in a weak position. One would assume they are not ready for the party train to end, so some desperation may be in order sooner than later. You should expect some doveish Fed speak really soon.

STB and company have been discussing the plethora of fuckedupness that exists across the globe right now. They got thru the holiday ramp on the 4th, threw the bears under the bus in one last short squeeze and then lost it. Can they get their mojo back is the burning question all want to know?

Well, they have little time, but a technical near term oversold condition at critical support may be ready to work in their favor. Hmmm, or is it? Is the weight of the economic and political spectrum (not to mention years of lies, false data points, trillions in liquidity, blah, blah, blah) combined with the mounting fear in an incredibly overbought market finally ready to crush the market? 

Does the 'smart money' finally see the inevitable end of the dollar dominance and (again) the Fed lies (like the recent 4% GDP call which STB LOLed on the spot) as their clue to follow Joe Six-pack out of the market? Is an incredibly lame (like the lamest EVER) lame duck potus in combination with the coming elections spooking even the most entrenched elite? So many questions and possibilities - and none of them are good. 

Volatility marks tops. I'm regretting not calling it after the 4th here, but even after the LEH incident the market incurred one last bull trap. Bulltards are bulltards, and they will always be. Ignorant, greedy pricks that deem themselves 10 feet tall and bulletproof. Let 'em soak it up and keep on buying. Be my guest.

I've said it before and will say it again. You saw it the other day, aaaand it's gone, POOF, sorry your money did not do so well, next customer please. In an instant this market lost months worth of work.Take your profits and run - all the way out of the market, brokerage account, bank and dollar. You will be labeled a terrorist for the larger withdrawal of course, but you'll be in good company with the over 1,700 fired servicemen and women that are getting pink slips and will be immediately added to the terrorist list as well. 

So, are you figuring out why they closed the "gates" on the money market funds the other week? Was this a just in time move? Are you ready to take 95 cents on the dollar of what limited amount you are going to be allowed to withdraw? That's a damn good question isn't it? Can you say capital controls? Can you say AmeriKa? 

There are some MASSIVE supportless holes below. Huge chunks will be lost in very little time when this hot air infused house of cards begins to crumble. I'm on the record from the original set of calls in '09 for at least two markt closures in the coming crash (along with my event, war, global default, dollar collapse and deflation to the point that minimum wage will be lowered). Yes, I've been a complete and utter bear that long.

There will be no place to hide. Oh, and don't forget the value of the dollar will more than likely be crashing with the market. Bonds will be safe right? LOL, think again. No place to hide. And who will pay the shorts in the end? That's a question I've been asking for years. 

Ammo, guns, water filter, generator, food, physical gold and silver, anything out of the dollar especially barterable items. Think SHTF. Oh, and pay cash fro everything you can. Don't leave the Feds a paper trail right to your terrorist door.

On to the lie -

SPX 60m - As I mentioned on the fall yesterday - it gave then the positive divergence setup they may have needed on the DCB double bottom. Also price finally got to my (minis) low target. 

SPX Daily - Oversold fo shizzle but no pos divs here. You will notice that they don't necessarily need pos divs either. Price is cracking the diagonal of death again. This line in the sand has had great success in marking bottoms for the past year. I'll add something else I've been discussing which is that on each overthrow instance price has back checked the overthrow level before breaking out again. The minis took care of this yesterday, and cash needs something closer to 1900 for this to happen.

SPX Weekly - Overthrowing the overthrow (2x) - how bad is it? See that pink diagonal down there near 1625? That's a busted rising wedge resistance backtest. The 38% retracement at 1650 would be considered a normal correction in historical terms. Again, LOL. Just a target area for you to consider once things really get going. Oh, and don't forget the 1475 open gap and area.

SPX Weekly - And, again, we're in my crash window. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Morning Charts 08/05/14 SPX /es

The power of community. I think STB personifies how things should function. A true democracy in motion. Impeccable leadership  - LOL - just kidding there - more like impeccable individuals coming together to discuss far ranging, diverse, difficult and sometimes horrifying topics. Agreeing and disagreeing in harmony and respect. Amazing at times.

Y'all make my job easy. In the early days things were a bit more difficult. Charting really mattered. Discovering, exploring and predicting the path to come was a daily event. Then came the 'follow the Fed' years, and now here we are living out the death of the dollar and the coming end game. 

We're a very unique bunch. Stalwarts that don't take shit off anyone, yet at the same time open minded enough to listen, observe, willing to learn and smart enough to realize when to change course. That makes this group even more amazing. 

Whether investing or the topic is conspiracy laden, we live on the edge. We're a unique group willing to take and discuss fantastically negative, improper and non-pc issues as if they were normal fare. That's not normal. You do realize we're a bunch of nuts, right? 

Funny when the 'nuts' are consistently right on their memes and mostly right on their market calls. Maybe there is a method to the madness? Maybe there is something to seeing and speaking the truth? Maybe there is something to living, accepting and dealing with reality rather than ignoring it. 

I need to thank you all for your participation and daily sharing of the love and knowledge. STB was founded for the 'do it yourselfer'. I hate advisors. 90% are a total rip off. What STB has evolved into has far exceeded anything I ever imagined. Now if we could just keep internet freedom for a few more years ......

On to the lie - 

I think potus is about to do something really stupid to disrupt everything (like worse than he's already done). We almost had a CDS trigger yesterday. We're getting close to an 'event' that can't be buried or reversed. 

SPX Daily - Everything near term is oversold and bouncing off critical support. There are lines that are not supposed to be crossed - that support diagonal is one of them. That is the equivalent of the old STB red diagonal of death on the minis charts. I used it to call more bottoms than a DJ at a strip club the past few years.

SPX Weekly - This chart like the daily is still under red reversal candle alert. One day it will get confirmation. It will happen. Diagonal support is there with the 20 ma's. Again, some lines are not meant to be crossed, and the Fed knows this. I've mentioned that each overthrow has pulled back to back check the initial overthrow point. the move to 1916 came close. Cash and the minis stopped just short of what I'd like to have seen (closer to 1900). They are trying a reversal, but let's be patient and see what they can muster. Gap support near 1961 and the s/r there marks my bull/bear line. Below that and the bears still have the ball.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, August 4, 2014

Morning Charts 08/04/2014 SPX /es

Not much to say this AM. Hard to pick a spot to cover in depth with so many balls in the air. I'll let things roll and see what comes up hottest this week. Ebola, Ukraine, Israel, ISIS, O and amnesty, coming elections with congress on vacation, market drooping (with all the trimmings), and the list goes on and on. So ripe for an 'event' of magnitude.

On to the lie -

SPX 60m - Oversold but no real positive divergences.

SPX Weekly - Just watch the 20ma for support - pretty simple.Reversal candles are what could be considered modern 'corrections'. There is a real chance here that this trend could change. Note the LT red support diag on the weekly chart that stopped the fall at the 20ma. Also note the MASSIVE supportless hole below that red diagonal.

More to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Friday, August 1, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/02-03/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it.

I may have time to update some charts or not - not sure.

Thanks for another great week on the blog. Fun when things get interesting.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/01/01 SPX /es

OK, so Wednesday I gave you "whatever" cause they were defying every law in the book. Yesterday I gave you, "Theoretically this is like the ultimate spot of spots to want to take a shot at a short. It should not get any better than this - period." Today is, "Will she or won't she?"

Can the bears get a follow through day? Can they confirm the move yesterday? Honestly I have no clue. The minis are a bit more clear with support and resistance IMO. Today they fell thru 1953 and went straight to 40ish as I wanted and then on to 20ish (the ishes are cause the levels are not clear so I give them an ish - this is new to STB nomenclature). I'd really like to see 1904ish before some sort of reversal. Sub 1900 and sell stops will start showing up. 

The reversal candles for the day, week and month are pretty sporty thanks to ONE day that wiped out weeks of a grinding climb. I told you, one move, one moment, can take it all back. The markets are primed for such. 

What caused the turn? Who knows? I'm just glad that a perfect technical setup worked. Sanctions, Congress recess, coming elections, amnesty, FOMC, Ukraine, Israel, overbought, rates, GDP lie, Cons Conf lie, Obummer lie - so many things in play. I also said yesterday that things are a changin - the market may sense this. 

On to the lie - 

SPX Weekly - now this candle is not quite set, but if it is to hold the doji last week could prove an epic moment in history. After all, price has entered my end zone.

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB.