Friday, August 8, 2014

Morning Charts 08/08/14 SPX /es

Well, back during the run up to the 4th I was warning of what was coming. I wanted to call the top, was gonna call it, got hung up with an infected nose, kidney stones and a lengthily trip to CO with 4 kids and never pulled the trigger. Bottom line is my spidey sense is still in tact. Their game can be as easy to call as I remember. Perfect technical tops still exist. 

Geopolitical and domestic troubles have been weighing on the markets, a potus bent on destruction of the country with a congress on vacation and coming election jitters - with the WRC being challenged like it never has before - all in a horrifically overbought market and the Fed struggling - is it a wonder we're testing cracking critical support here?

Now what is the big question? Critical diagonal support just cracked. The minis printed an 18 handle yesterday. The weekly 20, Daily 100 and 4hr 200 ma's are all getting tagged here. Yesterday I mentioned a gap down open to take this support structure out that can't be taken out during open hours. Well, we may get that. What's about to go down? Or up?

Does the Fed have the juice left to lift? Banks, algos, HFT, PPT, so many tools - where are they all? Where did they go? Is it time for some really dovish Fed speak?  I get a pullback to suck in some shorts for slaughter, but is this another scenario? I do know that these MA levels for the past two years have marked close to every bottom. Will they again? 

Or, are they ready to let it go? Or, have they actually lost control? Or, is this just another correction (a rare event) that we're all freaking out about? WTF is going on? 

I wanted 1904, stuck with it and got it. Now they are exceeding my expectations which is taking me back a little bit. I'm not surprised given the circumstances. This fall is way overdue and more than deserving. The problem is, where is the Fed? That's what has me more worried than anything. They CAN NOT let the markets fail (especially going into an election), and sub 1886 minis and sub all these critical MA's there will be some sell stops hit (think margin calls soon).

Let's see what Friday brings. The news is not good and apparently getting worse by the day. It does not look good, not good at all.

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - I darkened the 100ma on the chart. TRIX is the only indicator not ready or severely oversold. Does the 200ma at 1861 come into play here? It has to be the next significant meaningful target - and the last straw.

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

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