Because of yesterday's debt rant (Total Despair), I got a little behind on the AD links. Today you get AD extreme. I'll try to keep commentary limited. Enjoy!
Market News -
STB has liked 1040 as an SPX target since the June top. I always appreciate others looking in that direction (and if the Fed would just get out of the way). The Cost Of Recoupling: 235 S&P Points | ZeroHedge, looking at 1050 fair value based on the EUR/USD.
Intervention? Nah, no country would just print money and dump it on the markets just to prop things up to make things look better than they really are, that's silly. Well, is it really? Bank Lending, M2 Money Supply Soar in China; Premier Wen Jiabao calls for "Measures to Boost Confidence in Stock Market"; US vs. China Money Supply - Who is Printing More? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Showing posts with label mish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mish. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Afternoon Delight 10/19/11, SPX
Not sure where to start today's post. I'm in a bit of shock after the late day swoon (even though it was long overdue) in the markets. I was not sure that was still a possibility. Glad to see it is. Someone must have shut down the FT's communication channels ability this afternoon.
Bottom line is everything is revolving around the EU solvency issues. All lies and fraud aside it appears the end of the rope is coming fast and Germany, not willing to return to its Wiemar roots, is clogging up the corrupted bailout process spoiling the party for everyone across the globe. "Unfortunately for Merkozy, their despotic and tyrranical measures according to which they represent the will of the people yet really all they do is preserve the viability of insolvent French banks, will no longer fly." And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge
Bottom line is everything is revolving around the EU solvency issues. All lies and fraud aside it appears the end of the rope is coming fast and Germany, not willing to return to its Wiemar roots, is clogging up the corrupted bailout process spoiling the party for everyone across the globe. "Unfortunately for Merkozy, their despotic and tyrranical measures according to which they represent the will of the people yet really all they do is preserve the viability of insolvent French banks, will no longer fly." And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Happy St. Patty's Day!
Last night to enter Shanky's NCAA Tournament Challenge! We're up to 27 entries which is respectable. Come join the fun! Join shanky's group and the PW is shanky.
Quickly tonight cause I have green beer to drink - lots of it!
ZH -Ben Bernanke Has Become The Pied Piper Of Momoism This is really funny (yet sad at the same time) TD comments on Rosenberg's most recent post. "Who cares about any of this, one may ask. The market can only go up, up, up. Yes, if one considers price discovery to be a function of micro volume block buying by algos who have only been programmed to bid the market up. We broke key resistance levels in the past 2 days, and nothing: no major short covering spree, no influx of new buyers. The market has become a stealth melt up mechanism, driven by who knows what money (mutual funds are out), with shorts out. This is precisely the environment that allowed the market to go bidless overnight in 1987. When will this happen - nobody knows. Although if we continue to antagonize the only major foreigner who has allowed the Fed and the government to embark on its ludicrous policy of fiscal and monetary insanity, we will surely find out very soon."
My new mentor and buddy Rich sent me this one (yes, he is a calming influence in my life right now - I'm sure he hates me). Wednesday's update from Stocktiming.com. When Institutional Investors "shift direction" ... it the post. you need to see the momo chart on this post. Just a bit toppy.
Was that another snow job during the snow storm? You thought Greece was bailed out, right? I knew it was the dumbest thing on the planet to do it, but I was under the impression they had ST financing to get them over the hump (more like Everest). Well, apparently they aren't out of the woods, Wait A Second - I Thought Greece Was Done? Denninger has, "But this time it's different, so I think you should believe our fine friends over in Greece, even though Germany says they won't violate their Constitution (Merkel has repeated this enough times now that she's got to be blue in the face) and the news reports that trickle out say that indeed, Greece has no deal - not in the bag, not on the table, just plain not.". We all know they are in deeptrouble. So deep that all the other nations in just as deep trouble can't bail them out and they can't go to the credit store anymore, so this will be it. Do we finally gt a default?
Mish has Christie to cut N.J. school aid by $800M; 800 Layoffs in San Bernardino; R.I. Court Upholds Salary Cuts; Lancaster PA Pension Tsunami I don't think I need to elaborate on this one. I've been warning you this is all gonna come crashing down. The credit store is CLOSED. No more borrowing our way out of problems. The hard truth is finally arriving and it will hut so good.
Jon Stewart on Dodd. This is wonderful. If you have not seen it, please watch.
Cause I love the video so much - here it is again
Quickly tonight cause I have green beer to drink - lots of it!
ZH -Ben Bernanke Has Become The Pied Piper Of Momoism This is really funny (yet sad at the same time) TD comments on Rosenberg's most recent post. "Who cares about any of this, one may ask. The market can only go up, up, up. Yes, if one considers price discovery to be a function of micro volume block buying by algos who have only been programmed to bid the market up. We broke key resistance levels in the past 2 days, and nothing: no major short covering spree, no influx of new buyers. The market has become a stealth melt up mechanism, driven by who knows what money (mutual funds are out), with shorts out. This is precisely the environment that allowed the market to go bidless overnight in 1987. When will this happen - nobody knows. Although if we continue to antagonize the only major foreigner who has allowed the Fed and the government to embark on its ludicrous policy of fiscal and monetary insanity, we will surely find out very soon."
My new mentor and buddy Rich sent me this one (yes, he is a calming influence in my life right now - I'm sure he hates me). Wednesday's update from Stocktiming.com. When Institutional Investors "shift direction" ... it the post. you need to see the momo chart on this post. Just a bit toppy.
Was that another snow job during the snow storm? You thought Greece was bailed out, right? I knew it was the dumbest thing on the planet to do it, but I was under the impression they had ST financing to get them over the hump (more like Everest). Well, apparently they aren't out of the woods, Wait A Second - I Thought Greece Was Done? Denninger has, "But this time it's different, so I think you should believe our fine friends over in Greece, even though Germany says they won't violate their Constitution (Merkel has repeated this enough times now that she's got to be blue in the face) and the news reports that trickle out say that indeed, Greece has no deal - not in the bag, not on the table, just plain not.". We all know they are in deeptrouble. So deep that all the other nations in just as deep trouble can't bail them out and they can't go to the credit store anymore, so this will be it. Do we finally gt a default?
Mish has Christie to cut N.J. school aid by $800M; 800 Layoffs in San Bernardino; R.I. Court Upholds Salary Cuts; Lancaster PA Pension Tsunami I don't think I need to elaborate on this one. I've been warning you this is all gonna come crashing down. The credit store is CLOSED. No more borrowing our way out of problems. The hard truth is finally arriving and it will hut so good.
Jon Stewart on Dodd. This is wonderful. If you have not seen it, please watch.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| In Dodd We Trust | ||||
| ||||
Cause I love the video so much - here it is again
Monday, March 15, 2010
Newz Bites
Gotta be a quick hitter tonight as coach pitch Baseball now dominates my social life in the evenings.
Here are a couple of dire posts that you may find interesting. Trust me, this is not MSM material that you will come across casually surfing the news.
My buddy Rich from Jubileeprosperity sent me this today -Debt Dynamite Dominoes: The Coming Financial Catastrophe - Assessing the Illusion of Recovery."The people have been lulled into a false sense of safety under the ruse of a perceived “economic recovery.” Unfortunately, what the majority of people think does not make it so, especially when the people making the key decisions think and act to the contrary. The sovereign debt crises that have been unfolding in the past couple years and more recently in Greece, are canaries in the coal mine for the rest of Western “civilization.” The crisis threatens to spread to Spain, Portugal and Ireland; like dominoes, one country after another will collapse into a debt and currency crisis, all the way to America." When I get stuff like this it makes me happy. You all know how I feel and what I think (bad then worse). The tsunami is traveling across the ocean and the warning buoys are all going off.
I read this one on infowars today from Bob Chapman's International Forecaster - US Federal Reserve Dealing in Magic and Secrets. Bob does a great job as always. for those of you that discount Bob or think he's a bit on the "fringes", his track record is pretty strong and I urge you to heed his words. This is a great post chocked full of meaningful quantifiable numbers. "It is not healthy for a nation to have $3.3 trillion in Treasury bonds held by foreigners. China holds about $900 billion and Japan about $800 billion. We also understand that hedge funds and others also are fronting both countries, so the figures are not really reflective in their total positions. These nations for the most part are rolling their positions, but have not injected new capital into US Treasuries. That is why the Fed had to fund 80% of new Treasury debt last year."
Mish had some entertaining posts this weekend. This one full of videos that (for you more visually stimulated) explain the deficits, funding, spending and freezes in pictures. You will enjoy them, I promise. Obama's Backbone Like Over-Cooked Spaghetti; So Where Are The Fiscal Conservatives? (I had the vid with the pennies last summer, its great).
Zero Hedge brings you -Is The US Preparing For "The Total Destruction Of Iran?". You all know every financial disaster in the history of the world has ended with a war. Why not complete the destruction of the middle east?
I'm glad someone caught this - Denninger at The Market Ticker has Oh The Huge Manatee (LIESman .vs. Santelli) The Santelli -Liesman exchange from this morning. If you were ever wondering what it felt like to be a pinata, give Steve a call, he'll know for sure.
Don't forget Shanky's NCAA Tournament Chanpionship Bracket! Sign up today! Look for Shanky's Blog under groups and the PW is - shanky. We're up to 22 players now. Thanks to those that have signed up.
Here are a couple of dire posts that you may find interesting. Trust me, this is not MSM material that you will come across casually surfing the news.
My buddy Rich from Jubileeprosperity sent me this today -Debt Dynamite Dominoes: The Coming Financial Catastrophe - Assessing the Illusion of Recovery."The people have been lulled into a false sense of safety under the ruse of a perceived “economic recovery.” Unfortunately, what the majority of people think does not make it so, especially when the people making the key decisions think and act to the contrary. The sovereign debt crises that have been unfolding in the past couple years and more recently in Greece, are canaries in the coal mine for the rest of Western “civilization.” The crisis threatens to spread to Spain, Portugal and Ireland; like dominoes, one country after another will collapse into a debt and currency crisis, all the way to America." When I get stuff like this it makes me happy. You all know how I feel and what I think (bad then worse). The tsunami is traveling across the ocean and the warning buoys are all going off.
I read this one on infowars today from Bob Chapman's International Forecaster - US Federal Reserve Dealing in Magic and Secrets. Bob does a great job as always. for those of you that discount Bob or think he's a bit on the "fringes", his track record is pretty strong and I urge you to heed his words. This is a great post chocked full of meaningful quantifiable numbers. "It is not healthy for a nation to have $3.3 trillion in Treasury bonds held by foreigners. China holds about $900 billion and Japan about $800 billion. We also understand that hedge funds and others also are fronting both countries, so the figures are not really reflective in their total positions. These nations for the most part are rolling their positions, but have not injected new capital into US Treasuries. That is why the Fed had to fund 80% of new Treasury debt last year."
Mish had some entertaining posts this weekend. This one full of videos that (for you more visually stimulated) explain the deficits, funding, spending and freezes in pictures. You will enjoy them, I promise. Obama's Backbone Like Over-Cooked Spaghetti; So Where Are The Fiscal Conservatives? (I had the vid with the pennies last summer, its great).
Zero Hedge brings you -Is The US Preparing For "The Total Destruction Of Iran?". You all know every financial disaster in the history of the world has ended with a war. Why not complete the destruction of the middle east?
I'm glad someone caught this - Denninger at The Market Ticker has Oh The Huge Manatee (LIESman .vs. Santelli) The Santelli -Liesman exchange from this morning. If you were ever wondering what it felt like to be a pinata, give Steve a call, he'll know for sure.
Don't forget Shanky's NCAA Tournament Chanpionship Bracket! Sign up today! Look for Shanky's Blog under groups and the PW is - shanky. We're up to 22 players now. Thanks to those that have signed up.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Thumbing Thru The News - P3 Anyone?
It has been pretty quiet over the past week or so on the big news front following the Greek Drama's settlement. Is this the eye of the hurricane or just the quiet before the storm?
In a must read post from Zero Hedge -As Budget Deficit Hits Record High, Interest On US Public Debt Hits Record Low - TD notes."How is it possible that unprecedented debt accumulation can result in ever declining interest rates, and Treasury auctions, such as today's 10 Year reopening, in which the Bid To Cover hit an all time high? One answer: The Federal Reserve, which through complete domination of the entire capital market courtesy of ZIRP and QE has now turned market logic upside down by 180 degrees." There are no more rules in this game. The Fed holds all the chips and there is ZERO transparency. Please give this post a read and consider the "simple math" that I keep harping on as to why this whole rescue plan will not work out gets explained in detail.
Denninger really makes the math simple (like 5th grade math) in his post What's Our Credit Limit Again? "Remember - entitlements were half of that $328 billion. So let's see if we can do the math here.Entitlements were about $164 billion last month in spending. The rest was, of course, the rest.But we only took in $107 billion.So even if we eliminated all entitlement spending we still did not have enough money to cover the rest.Yeah." I keep telling you people that it is gonna be really bad and this is so simple to understand. Maybe it is so drastically bad it just does not register with most. The most deflationary period in the history of the world is coming like a freight train. Everything hs to be readjusted. Be ready."The market and economy are absolutely dependent on the Federal Government continuing to do so. Should the government not be able (or willing) to continue to do so, S&P 666 or DOW 6,489 will look like a bull market."
naked capitalism knocks the ball out of the park in The Empire Continues to Strike Back: Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch "This juncture (for Obama to keep his campaign promises and institute reform rather than joining the banksters) was a crucial window of opportunity. The financial services industry had become systematically predatory. Its victims now extended well beyond precarious, clueless, and sometimes undisciplined consumers who took on too much debt via credit cards with gotcha features that successfully enticed into a treadmill of chronic debt, or now infamous subprime and option-ARM mortgages." Please give this post a read. It is a great read.
By the end of this crisis I am prognosticating that 90% of the unions will be run out of existence. Especially if they keep action like this group Moorestown New Jersey Unions Highlight Union Arrogance. I have nothing against unions. I think they are right and good for the people as I hate the greed loving money grubbing corporations that raise productivity and profitability to a point that workers are more treated like slaves than assets. I hate corporate America. I hate it's relationship with Wall St. that drives greed and profitability over worker's rights and well being. Bottom line though is that the unions will have to make massive concessions to survive and they won't. It is not in their DNA. Everything has to deflate massively and the union workers who are some of the best paid and insured will have to concede. They won't.
Last night I touched on the National ID Card being proposed to control "illegal immigration". This is bullshit and you need to know what they are talking about. Please listen to this interview with Ron Paul on the subject. Passage of this is a severe blow to our civil liberties. Do you want the government to monitor EVERYTHING YOU DO? I don't think so. Think about constant government surveillance.
I have to share this again, a one sentence clip from Mish that quotes Pelosi, "We have to pass the health care bill so that you can find out what is in it." Oh my goodness, I guess the concept of blackmail has now spread from the banks to the representatives.
Rasmussen Reports presidential Tracking Poll today - Funny how the Strongly Disapprove line in red really correlates to the SPX chart. I still think it is about 20 points to high.Sadly after the market crashes, I don't think the approval rate will correlate anymore.
This is post 665 in the old blog, you know what number that makes tomorrow morning's post. LOL, might be interesting. Stay tuned. Sorry about the Morning Protest this am, but I was a little miffed (beyond normal). I should have a rule not to post anything before 8:00, as all communication that happens before my brain catches up with my mouth (fingers in this case) should be banned.
Please support Audit The Fed
Look for the NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge coming next week.
GL out there!
In a must read post from Zero Hedge -As Budget Deficit Hits Record High, Interest On US Public Debt Hits Record Low - TD notes."How is it possible that unprecedented debt accumulation can result in ever declining interest rates, and Treasury auctions, such as today's 10 Year reopening, in which the Bid To Cover hit an all time high? One answer: The Federal Reserve, which through complete domination of the entire capital market courtesy of ZIRP and QE has now turned market logic upside down by 180 degrees." There are no more rules in this game. The Fed holds all the chips and there is ZERO transparency. Please give this post a read and consider the "simple math" that I keep harping on as to why this whole rescue plan will not work out gets explained in detail.
Denninger really makes the math simple (like 5th grade math) in his post What's Our Credit Limit Again? "Remember - entitlements were half of that $328 billion. So let's see if we can do the math here.Entitlements were about $164 billion last month in spending. The rest was, of course, the rest.But we only took in $107 billion.So even if we eliminated all entitlement spending we still did not have enough money to cover the rest.Yeah." I keep telling you people that it is gonna be really bad and this is so simple to understand. Maybe it is so drastically bad it just does not register with most. The most deflationary period in the history of the world is coming like a freight train. Everything hs to be readjusted. Be ready."The market and economy are absolutely dependent on the Federal Government continuing to do so. Should the government not be able (or willing) to continue to do so, S&P 666 or DOW 6,489 will look like a bull market."
naked capitalism knocks the ball out of the park in The Empire Continues to Strike Back: Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch "This juncture (for Obama to keep his campaign promises and institute reform rather than joining the banksters) was a crucial window of opportunity. The financial services industry had become systematically predatory. Its victims now extended well beyond precarious, clueless, and sometimes undisciplined consumers who took on too much debt via credit cards with gotcha features that successfully enticed into a treadmill of chronic debt, or now infamous subprime and option-ARM mortgages." Please give this post a read. It is a great read.
By the end of this crisis I am prognosticating that 90% of the unions will be run out of existence. Especially if they keep action like this group Moorestown New Jersey Unions Highlight Union Arrogance. I have nothing against unions. I think they are right and good for the people as I hate the greed loving money grubbing corporations that raise productivity and profitability to a point that workers are more treated like slaves than assets. I hate corporate America. I hate it's relationship with Wall St. that drives greed and profitability over worker's rights and well being. Bottom line though is that the unions will have to make massive concessions to survive and they won't. It is not in their DNA. Everything has to deflate massively and the union workers who are some of the best paid and insured will have to concede. They won't.
Last night I touched on the National ID Card being proposed to control "illegal immigration". This is bullshit and you need to know what they are talking about. Please listen to this interview with Ron Paul on the subject. Passage of this is a severe blow to our civil liberties. Do you want the government to monitor EVERYTHING YOU DO? I don't think so. Think about constant government surveillance.
I have to share this again, a one sentence clip from Mish that quotes Pelosi, "We have to pass the health care bill so that you can find out what is in it." Oh my goodness, I guess the concept of blackmail has now spread from the banks to the representatives.
Rasmussen Reports presidential Tracking Poll today - Funny how the Strongly Disapprove line in red really correlates to the SPX chart. I still think it is about 20 points to high.Sadly after the market crashes, I don't think the approval rate will correlate anymore.
This is post 665 in the old blog, you know what number that makes tomorrow morning's post. LOL, might be interesting. Stay tuned. Sorry about the Morning Protest this am, but I was a little miffed (beyond normal). I should have a rule not to post anything before 8:00, as all communication that happens before my brain catches up with my mouth (fingers in this case) should be banned.
Please support Audit The Fed
Look for the NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge coming next week.
GL out there!
Morning Protest
I'm slightly pissed this am. Well, does the second run on a BS rumor in a week really surprise you? Yup, it happened again. The market goes nuts on "rumors". Friggin Rumors? That's right. We've now entered a state where all it takes is for some floor trader to break wind and the market reacts like someone lit a fire under it. ZH brings you the details in their own unique way in The Scamming Of Investors Continues, Courtesy Of The Rumormill Formerly Known As The Equity Market. I'll put it this way, if they have to resort to possibly releasing speculative information (obviously information from reliable sources to people who are in the right place to move the market) then they are in deep trouble. Have the PPT's pockets run dry? The real problem is the SEC's lack of concern and the fact that this occurs so easily. Folks, this is the BS your markets have become.
On to the markets - Minis flat, markets overbought (that is a slight joke cause you know that I think every gain since April is fraudulent) and now markets are capable of a rumor driven ramp job at any moment to benefit the banksters as they have gone from taking cash out the back door on hand trucks concealed in some way to simply loading pallets on forklifts and taking it out the front door (this is your money by the way in the form of future tax liabilities).
After the move yesterday, I'm not all that inspired to give any sort of analysis. Why not just title my post - Morning Post - Another Ramp Job Today and be done with it? This shit is gonna bite them in the ass. Sadly, it is gonna bite you and me in the ass even worse when it all ends.
In protest of the government's (to many to list here) problems and inability to regulate anything I am not doing an analysis this am. Why should I? Isn't it painfully obvious that they know the market is bogus and are pulling out every stop to keep the levitation act going. Every BS move like this is a PUMP designed to suck in more of your money so they can DUMP. This is a suck job that Jenna Jameson would be proud of, yet sadly the benefits are not nearly comparable.
If you would like to see my charts go to the link to my chartbook on the right or click HERE.
Yes, I shorted (very lightly) late yesterday and was bold enough to swing it. FAZ and SDS. I will not stay around if they drop one cent under the purchase price.
It is beyond time to get active and do something to wake the sheeple up. Get active. Spread the word. Talk it up. Send emails with links to articles (or this blog, Mish, Zero Hedge, Denninger, Alex Jones - All links on the right in the blogroll). Let others know what is happening. Now is the time to be mad as hell while we may possibly still have a chance.
GL, you will need it.
Last night I included "Stop the Health care Takeover!" Petition to the U.S. Congress. Mish posted this last night -Pelosi: We have to pass the health care bill so that you can find out what is in it - you have to hear it to believe it. This shit has to stop.
On to the markets - Minis flat, markets overbought (that is a slight joke cause you know that I think every gain since April is fraudulent) and now markets are capable of a rumor driven ramp job at any moment to benefit the banksters as they have gone from taking cash out the back door on hand trucks concealed in some way to simply loading pallets on forklifts and taking it out the front door (this is your money by the way in the form of future tax liabilities).
After the move yesterday, I'm not all that inspired to give any sort of analysis. Why not just title my post - Morning Post - Another Ramp Job Today and be done with it? This shit is gonna bite them in the ass. Sadly, it is gonna bite you and me in the ass even worse when it all ends.
In protest of the government's (to many to list here) problems and inability to regulate anything I am not doing an analysis this am. Why should I? Isn't it painfully obvious that they know the market is bogus and are pulling out every stop to keep the levitation act going. Every BS move like this is a PUMP designed to suck in more of your money so they can DUMP. This is a suck job that Jenna Jameson would be proud of, yet sadly the benefits are not nearly comparable.
If you would like to see my charts go to the link to my chartbook on the right or click HERE.
Yes, I shorted (very lightly) late yesterday and was bold enough to swing it. FAZ and SDS. I will not stay around if they drop one cent under the purchase price.
It is beyond time to get active and do something to wake the sheeple up. Get active. Spread the word. Talk it up. Send emails with links to articles (or this blog, Mish, Zero Hedge, Denninger, Alex Jones - All links on the right in the blogroll). Let others know what is happening. Now is the time to be mad as hell while we may possibly still have a chance.
GL, you will need it.
Last night I included "Stop the Health care Takeover!" Petition to the U.S. Congress. Mish posted this last night -Pelosi: We have to pass the health care bill so that you can find out what is in it - you have to hear it to believe it. This shit has to stop.
Monday, March 8, 2010
The Problems Continue To Mount
Nope, no good news today (that you can believe at least). Yet another day of dismal data and more lies designed to make you think the recovery is here and there is no threat of a double dip in this recession. It is over, move along, nothing to see here.
Let's start with the most obvious and what everyone should have expected. State Tax Revenues Plummet By $87 Billion, Biggest Year Over Year Decline In History; Record State Tax Hikes In Progress. OK, so unemployment is at 17% (U-6 we count here on Shanky's blog not the U-3 number), what did you expect? "national recession has had such a devastating effect on state finances that states took in $87 billion less in tax revenue from October 2008 through September 2009 than they collected in the previous 12 months. This 11 percent decline, the steepest on record, resulted from the impact on tax collections of lost jobs, reduced wages, and lowered economic activity." I have been reporting via Mish and other sources the blight facing the state and local governments. I hope you have been listening, cause this country is chock full of our own version of Greece but on steroids. The stress on state budgets is tremendous. Stay tuned for some real interesting actions as balanced budgets come due.
I hit on this briefly this morning University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots "Students at the University of California’s flagship Berkeley campus took to the streets on Friday night, vandalizing university buildings, burning trash cans and clashing with police in the latest expression of frustration over cuts to the educational budget in California." I know the budget cuts have our local college students in a minor tizzy, but nothing like the children at Berkley. A quick Google search yielded nothing, so I guess this is something the MSM is not going to let you in on.A quick read of Mish's post brings some good points to light. Mainly the fraud that potentially exists in the student loan arena. What's that Shanky? Fraud? More fraud? Yeah, it seems like the universities have a TBTF mentality. you see with the government backing every child that wants to go to school (does this sound familiar to another recent problem) the universities have loaned away the farm. Now with the government cutting back and with loan standards rising students are having fits. (where have I heard that story before?)
I liked this one from the Market Ticker - short and sweet - ADMISSION By FDIC: Massive Balance Sheet FRAUD Me thinks someone from the FDIC put something in an email they should not have, ""That’s the value the bank had them on their books on their year-end financials, but the true value is much less. It is similar to someone in Las Vegas saying that their house is worth $300,000 because that’s what they paid for it three years ago, but the reality is, if they had to sell it in today’s market, they’d only get $250,000 for it. The FDIC has to sell assets in today’s market." Remember Mark-to-market and the accounting fraud I keep beinging up and the insolvent banks? Yup, that's it!
Naked Capitalism has Banksters Win Again, Edition 1,477,536 a sad story about more reform failures. We all know that a serious lack of regulation (that is being kind) got us into this mess. well, now the banksters have it so good that they don't want nay regulation. It will only cause more problems in their eyes. Here you are seeing your spineless representation in Washington at their finest hour. Bowing to the blackmailing banks that hold us hostage. "Obama has not been well-advised. His so-called accomplishment — stabilizing the financial system — comes from throwing trillions of taxpayers’ dollars at financial firms. He has behaved like a Wall Street trader: spending other people’s money with no thought of consequences. Anyone can do that… Reform, not stimulus, is the solution. Only by limiting financial speculation can the foundations be laid for a healthy recovery, and to prevent another crisis."It is truly astounding when you read it every day. the problems are plain as the nose on your face, yet they pretend they can't fix things cause of systemic risk. I ask, systemic risk to whom, the banksters or the nation?
Washington's Blog has White Schools Bernanke on Basic Economics (after you dig around a few conspiracy laced post which are the best on the web). Look, I'm no economist, but the points Mr. White brings up are like econ 101 and these dips running the Fed don't even get those basic principles. The Fed is behind everything and they are the root of all evil in my book. At this point I am not sure if all of this was engineered or truly a dunb fuck moment of historic perspective. I'm leaning to engineered when you get quotes like this, "Should governments feel it necessary to take direct actions to alleviate debt burdens, it is crucial that they understand one thing beforehand. If asset prices are unrealistically high, they must fall. If savings rates are unrealistically low, they must rise. If debts cannot be serviced, they must be written off." Note the "debts must be written off" point.
You may have seen the "Invest In California" banner adds floating around on the internet. (Cough, cough, clear throat, giggle). Uh, OK, so why are they asking you and me ton invest in Cali? Bill Lockyer Goes Direct To Retail Investors With The "Terrific" Opportunity To Front Run Institutional Investors In Cali Bonds - Just Don't Do It - cause your state will need you soon enough."If anything, it underscores just how horrendous the fiscal situation in California is, and how anyone buying into this bond issue should be prepared that the next round just may not find enough greater fools to extend the perpetual refi Ponzi (forget about repayment at maturity)."
That is enough for today. No mention of the PIIGS or Dubai today, but that does not mean the problems have not gone away. I'm getting more worried everyday for each of us. It is piling up all around us and they are using smoke and mirrors to hide the truth. Sadly, when the first card fails, the whole house comes down - globally. The debt laden camel's back is bout to give way. Be prepared.
GL!
Let's start with the most obvious and what everyone should have expected. State Tax Revenues Plummet By $87 Billion, Biggest Year Over Year Decline In History; Record State Tax Hikes In Progress. OK, so unemployment is at 17% (U-6 we count here on Shanky's blog not the U-3 number), what did you expect? "national recession has had such a devastating effect on state finances that states took in $87 billion less in tax revenue from October 2008 through September 2009 than they collected in the previous 12 months. This 11 percent decline, the steepest on record, resulted from the impact on tax collections of lost jobs, reduced wages, and lowered economic activity." I have been reporting via Mish and other sources the blight facing the state and local governments. I hope you have been listening, cause this country is chock full of our own version of Greece but on steroids. The stress on state budgets is tremendous. Stay tuned for some real interesting actions as balanced budgets come due.
I hit on this briefly this morning University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots "Students at the University of California’s flagship Berkeley campus took to the streets on Friday night, vandalizing university buildings, burning trash cans and clashing with police in the latest expression of frustration over cuts to the educational budget in California." I know the budget cuts have our local college students in a minor tizzy, but nothing like the children at Berkley. A quick Google search yielded nothing, so I guess this is something the MSM is not going to let you in on.A quick read of Mish's post brings some good points to light. Mainly the fraud that potentially exists in the student loan arena. What's that Shanky? Fraud? More fraud? Yeah, it seems like the universities have a TBTF mentality. you see with the government backing every child that wants to go to school (does this sound familiar to another recent problem) the universities have loaned away the farm. Now with the government cutting back and with loan standards rising students are having fits. (where have I heard that story before?)
I liked this one from the Market Ticker - short and sweet - ADMISSION By FDIC: Massive Balance Sheet FRAUD Me thinks someone from the FDIC put something in an email they should not have, ""That’s the value the bank had them on their books on their year-end financials, but the true value is much less. It is similar to someone in Las Vegas saying that their house is worth $300,000 because that’s what they paid for it three years ago, but the reality is, if they had to sell it in today’s market, they’d only get $250,000 for it. The FDIC has to sell assets in today’s market." Remember Mark-to-market and the accounting fraud I keep beinging up and the insolvent banks? Yup, that's it!
Naked Capitalism has Banksters Win Again, Edition 1,477,536 a sad story about more reform failures. We all know that a serious lack of regulation (that is being kind) got us into this mess. well, now the banksters have it so good that they don't want nay regulation. It will only cause more problems in their eyes. Here you are seeing your spineless representation in Washington at their finest hour. Bowing to the blackmailing banks that hold us hostage. "Obama has not been well-advised. His so-called accomplishment — stabilizing the financial system — comes from throwing trillions of taxpayers’ dollars at financial firms. He has behaved like a Wall Street trader: spending other people’s money with no thought of consequences. Anyone can do that… Reform, not stimulus, is the solution. Only by limiting financial speculation can the foundations be laid for a healthy recovery, and to prevent another crisis."It is truly astounding when you read it every day. the problems are plain as the nose on your face, yet they pretend they can't fix things cause of systemic risk. I ask, systemic risk to whom, the banksters or the nation?
Washington's Blog has White Schools Bernanke on Basic Economics (after you dig around a few conspiracy laced post which are the best on the web). Look, I'm no economist, but the points Mr. White brings up are like econ 101 and these dips running the Fed don't even get those basic principles. The Fed is behind everything and they are the root of all evil in my book. At this point I am not sure if all of this was engineered or truly a dunb fuck moment of historic perspective. I'm leaning to engineered when you get quotes like this, "Should governments feel it necessary to take direct actions to alleviate debt burdens, it is crucial that they understand one thing beforehand. If asset prices are unrealistically high, they must fall. If savings rates are unrealistically low, they must rise. If debts cannot be serviced, they must be written off." Note the "debts must be written off" point.
You may have seen the "Invest In California" banner adds floating around on the internet. (Cough, cough, clear throat, giggle). Uh, OK, so why are they asking you and me ton invest in Cali? Bill Lockyer Goes Direct To Retail Investors With The "Terrific" Opportunity To Front Run Institutional Investors In Cali Bonds - Just Don't Do It - cause your state will need you soon enough."If anything, it underscores just how horrendous the fiscal situation in California is, and how anyone buying into this bond issue should be prepared that the next round just may not find enough greater fools to extend the perpetual refi Ponzi (forget about repayment at maturity)."
That is enough for today. No mention of the PIIGS or Dubai today, but that does not mean the problems have not gone away. I'm getting more worried everyday for each of us. It is piling up all around us and they are using smoke and mirrors to hide the truth. Sadly, when the first card fails, the whole house comes down - globally. The debt laden camel's back is bout to give way. Be prepared.
GL!
Thursday, March 4, 2010
This Crap Just Makes Me Sick (Mini Rant)
It all started with some guy on CNBS this am, all goo goo and gaa gaa over the recovery. Talking sbout how things were looking up. Who the hell do these people think they are fooling? What the hell? The global friggin finacial system is being held together with duct tape (that's being generous) and they say things are just rosy, improving and you need to invest here, here and here? Bullshit!
Those A$$holes just want your money. If you are not fully invested they don't generate fees. They lie thru their teeth and tell you anything to keep you fully invested. It is not about you or your earnings. It is about their generating fees to support big bonuses. They really do not have you and your investment as their top priority. They are looking out for number one.
This post from Zero Hedge has a great vid capturing GS's round the world tentacles.More Headaches For The Goldman PR Department: Here Comes The (Soon To Be) Viral Goldman Sucks Video We are no longer in control of anything. America (actually the whole global financial system) has been hijacked. We are really now their slaves cause of what our government has allowed them to do. Bottom line is their voracious appetite has had them gobble up all the money from the dot com bubble to the RE bubble and not the only thing left to devour is your future tax dollars. The cycle will only end with the destruction of the Fed, GS and the TBTF's.
I just found this on Mish's site (nice timing) Is anyone else sick of this "Nascent Recovery" talk? There is no recovery. The flushing of QE government money into the system that has done nothing but make the banksters rich and put us even farther in debt as a nation. It is all a bunch of bullshit! Did you hear that CMBS Delinquencies Hit New Record? That has recovery written all over it!
Sorry I missed this one. Elizabeth Warren is one of my favorites. She's the only one that seems to know what reality is.Elizabeth Warren on the Coming Commercial Real Estate Crisis; 3000 Community Banks at Risk. "Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of residential mortgages are underwater now, she said." folks, this is for real. It is not make believe, but sweet little moron on CNBS this morning is feeding you a line of shit a mile long that things are just fine and housing is gonna experience a recovery.
Dig this from Denninger -GMAC Co-Mingling Custodial Funds?! Say what? I'm sure this accounting trickery is now legal. If it isn't, do you think FINRA or the SEC are going to actually do anything about it if it would cause financial harm? "The rating company said GMAC commingled cash flows from multiple bonds in a single custodial account, Moody's said in a statement. This allowed GMAC to use cash from loans in one bond for principal and interest payments on another, it said." Anything goes I guess when it comes to creative financing these days. If you can't borrow it anymore and you are out of it to pay out then you co-mingle it and Ponzify it. Why the hell not? When you are neck deep in shit, I guess any necessary action to keep the charade going is what you do.
Denninger also has more on the banks continued raping of America. Read this -So Much For Universal Default Disappearing. If the 7 day waiting period on getting cash out of the banks was bad this is taking the raping of the consumer to a whole new level. "This is effectively a "CALL" option on your credit card. This "feature" is why when I ran MCSNet I refused to ever accept a bank credit line for any purpose whatsoever for the company - they all had this sort of tricky crap in them somewhere. Every one. In each and every case such a clause gives the bank the right to force you into bankruptcy if you ever actually use the credit for anything other than as a cash-management tool (that is, as a means to pay for something over time), as they can declare the line in default any time they'd like and accelerate repayment, demanding the full balance. You either have it (in which case you didn't really need the credit, right?) or you're bankrupt - at their sole discretion." and don't think they won't do it.
This shit is OUT OF HAND, and I have had enough! What can we do? Well at this time apparently not a damn thing. Approval ratings for everyone (except maybe Ron Paul) are at historic lows. The Rasmussen Report says we basically support nothing the government is doing, and the consumer confidence polls are tanking. They could care less what you think or need. It is now all about the TBTF's that effectively own everything and have us in a blackmail situation - We tank it all or else.
I've got news for the TBTF's - Screw you! It is all going to hell in an hand basket anyway and your last grab for cash will be persecuted eventually. Your raping of America (and the global financial system for that matter) will not go by the way. You all will be in jail one day for this. Every stinking one of you. We the people will eventually root the corrupt A$$holes out of Washington and your little charade will end. Oh, and you politicians that let this happen, you better get your soap on a rope ready as well. You'll be in orange jumpsuits sooner than later as well.
The truth will come out and we the people will get our revenge. Politicians - what you have allowed to happen is unthinkable and disgusting. Bankers - taking advantage of a system for profit at the expense of others will not go unnoticed. We're pissed and you will eventually push us over the edge. You can't keep us under wraps forever. We know what you have been doing. We know how corrupt everyone of you are. Maybe you should consider buying one of those Greek Islands, it would be a good place for you to be as far away from us as possible.
If you don't take your medicine you will never get better. In this case we have let the problem fester and refused to even see a doctor. If we had taken our medicine, we'd have trillions to actually do something constructive with, but NOOOOO, you had to go save the banks. They had a choice to make, financial Armageddon or keep the charade alive for a few more years and THEN face financial Armageddon in an even worse state. Nice job guys. Well done!
Those A$$holes just want your money. If you are not fully invested they don't generate fees. They lie thru their teeth and tell you anything to keep you fully invested. It is not about you or your earnings. It is about their generating fees to support big bonuses. They really do not have you and your investment as their top priority. They are looking out for number one.
This post from Zero Hedge has a great vid capturing GS's round the world tentacles.More Headaches For The Goldman PR Department: Here Comes The (Soon To Be) Viral Goldman Sucks Video We are no longer in control of anything. America (actually the whole global financial system) has been hijacked. We are really now their slaves cause of what our government has allowed them to do. Bottom line is their voracious appetite has had them gobble up all the money from the dot com bubble to the RE bubble and not the only thing left to devour is your future tax dollars. The cycle will only end with the destruction of the Fed, GS and the TBTF's.
I just found this on Mish's site (nice timing) Is anyone else sick of this "Nascent Recovery" talk? There is no recovery. The flushing of QE government money into the system that has done nothing but make the banksters rich and put us even farther in debt as a nation. It is all a bunch of bullshit! Did you hear that CMBS Delinquencies Hit New Record? That has recovery written all over it!
Sorry I missed this one. Elizabeth Warren is one of my favorites. She's the only one that seems to know what reality is.Elizabeth Warren on the Coming Commercial Real Estate Crisis; 3000 Community Banks at Risk. "Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of residential mortgages are underwater now, she said." folks, this is for real. It is not make believe, but sweet little moron on CNBS this morning is feeding you a line of shit a mile long that things are just fine and housing is gonna experience a recovery.
Dig this from Denninger -GMAC Co-Mingling Custodial Funds?! Say what? I'm sure this accounting trickery is now legal. If it isn't, do you think FINRA or the SEC are going to actually do anything about it if it would cause financial harm? "The rating company said GMAC commingled cash flows from multiple bonds in a single custodial account, Moody's said in a statement. This allowed GMAC to use cash from loans in one bond for principal and interest payments on another, it said." Anything goes I guess when it comes to creative financing these days. If you can't borrow it anymore and you are out of it to pay out then you co-mingle it and Ponzify it. Why the hell not? When you are neck deep in shit, I guess any necessary action to keep the charade going is what you do.
Denninger also has more on the banks continued raping of America. Read this -So Much For Universal Default Disappearing. If the 7 day waiting period on getting cash out of the banks was bad this is taking the raping of the consumer to a whole new level. "This is effectively a "CALL" option on your credit card. This "feature" is why when I ran MCSNet I refused to ever accept a bank credit line for any purpose whatsoever for the company - they all had this sort of tricky crap in them somewhere. Every one. In each and every case such a clause gives the bank the right to force you into bankruptcy if you ever actually use the credit for anything other than as a cash-management tool (that is, as a means to pay for something over time), as they can declare the line in default any time they'd like and accelerate repayment, demanding the full balance. You either have it (in which case you didn't really need the credit, right?) or you're bankrupt - at their sole discretion." and don't think they won't do it.
This shit is OUT OF HAND, and I have had enough! What can we do? Well at this time apparently not a damn thing. Approval ratings for everyone (except maybe Ron Paul) are at historic lows. The Rasmussen Report says we basically support nothing the government is doing, and the consumer confidence polls are tanking. They could care less what you think or need. It is now all about the TBTF's that effectively own everything and have us in a blackmail situation - We tank it all or else.
I've got news for the TBTF's - Screw you! It is all going to hell in an hand basket anyway and your last grab for cash will be persecuted eventually. Your raping of America (and the global financial system for that matter) will not go by the way. You all will be in jail one day for this. Every stinking one of you. We the people will eventually root the corrupt A$$holes out of Washington and your little charade will end. Oh, and you politicians that let this happen, you better get your soap on a rope ready as well. You'll be in orange jumpsuits sooner than later as well.
The truth will come out and we the people will get our revenge. Politicians - what you have allowed to happen is unthinkable and disgusting. Bankers - taking advantage of a system for profit at the expense of others will not go unnoticed. We're pissed and you will eventually push us over the edge. You can't keep us under wraps forever. We know what you have been doing. We know how corrupt everyone of you are. Maybe you should consider buying one of those Greek Islands, it would be a good place for you to be as far away from us as possible.
If you don't take your medicine you will never get better. In this case we have let the problem fester and refused to even see a doctor. If we had taken our medicine, we'd have trillions to actually do something constructive with, but NOOOOO, you had to go save the banks. They had a choice to make, financial Armageddon or keep the charade alive for a few more years and THEN face financial Armageddon in an even worse state. Nice job guys. Well done!
Morning Post
Don't believe the retail numbers (or the employment numbers). As I have warned, the people you see on TV are doing their best to pump you full of "it". Remember, they do NOT MAKE MONEY if you are not invested. It is their job to keep you in the market. They do not give a darn about your well being. They only care about their next bigger house in the Hamptons.
Some guy named Bryan on CNBS is a total moron. Right now talking about blow out numbers in retail - I think he and Dennis Kneale must have something going on - this meat head just said "as we see housing coming back" - WRONG!. Read Mish's report here on what should be expected for retail. Now, the comps are to a weak '08 period, the the pump masters (with the BLS), a little accounting chicanery and all the QE liquidity can all still lead this market ever higher, but be reassured it will come crashing down one day in the near future. Total systemic failure is coming. Remember we're coming out of an earnings trough where comps could be beaten by a monkey throwing darts.
SPX daily chart - Topping finally? 60m indicators are toast. 30m are on the road south. The last time we were in this position we got a healthy retreat, but remember the weeklys were in full cooperation. This time the weeklys are headed north hopefully getting ready to set the divergenceMinis are flat coming into the open but it should be noted they were as low as 1114, so they have recovered 6 points since early in the morning.
The double top on the RSI5 screams overbought. The double top in the MACD hist with it declining yesterday screams overbought. S Sto is overbought.ADX is not all that inspired. My two scenarios still stand. This is either a throw over of the triangle and the fall will be to 1044, or this is the ending of the first leg up of the second 5 in the 5.3.5 that I have been speculating about and will be the final run to the final top if it is. I took 1/2 short positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday. It is a wait and see game. Sorry I can not be more definitive in the call, but the manipulators have proven that nothing you see is real or can be counted on anymore.
Dollar - Still falling. I think it is toast and the ABC that I called has completed. Here is my UUP chart. If it should continue to run $89 is my upper target.
Oil - Will tensions in the middle east continue to escalate. If they do blow up, we'll find out the hard way that we are to dependent on energy from others in a bad way. Oil is struggling to go higher right now with the dailys topping out.
NG - Near term oversold and I'm looking for a pop here before further weakness. It is sitting on it's 38% retracement right here. 5.21 max pop.
Gold - Climbing in what may be an ABC corrective. Up $100 in a little over a week. 60m headed down and dailys are topping. If the market begins to sell off so will gold I think.
EUR/USD - The pair has hit bottom I think (for now at least). Is it the dollar's turn to get devalued as they systematically work currencies to a point all this debt can be better managed? It has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of the lows in late '08. Looks to me like that was a 3 and now we're gonna get a 4 corrective up. 1.41 would be a good number. HERE is a good EUR/USD vid.
GL! Let's see what the pump machine has in store for us today. The weeklys are not ready to turn just yet, so those all giddy about a turn may have to wait till next week. We'll have to see.
Some guy named Bryan on CNBS is a total moron. Right now talking about blow out numbers in retail - I think he and Dennis Kneale must have something going on - this meat head just said "as we see housing coming back" - WRONG!. Read Mish's report here on what should be expected for retail. Now, the comps are to a weak '08 period, the the pump masters (with the BLS), a little accounting chicanery and all the QE liquidity can all still lead this market ever higher, but be reassured it will come crashing down one day in the near future. Total systemic failure is coming. Remember we're coming out of an earnings trough where comps could be beaten by a monkey throwing darts.
SPX daily chart - Topping finally? 60m indicators are toast. 30m are on the road south. The last time we were in this position we got a healthy retreat, but remember the weeklys were in full cooperation. This time the weeklys are headed north hopefully getting ready to set the divergenceMinis are flat coming into the open but it should be noted they were as low as 1114, so they have recovered 6 points since early in the morning.
The double top on the RSI5 screams overbought. The double top in the MACD hist with it declining yesterday screams overbought. S Sto is overbought.ADX is not all that inspired. My two scenarios still stand. This is either a throw over of the triangle and the fall will be to 1044, or this is the ending of the first leg up of the second 5 in the 5.3.5 that I have been speculating about and will be the final run to the final top if it is. I took 1/2 short positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday. It is a wait and see game. Sorry I can not be more definitive in the call, but the manipulators have proven that nothing you see is real or can be counted on anymore.
Oil - Will tensions in the middle east continue to escalate. If they do blow up, we'll find out the hard way that we are to dependent on energy from others in a bad way. Oil is struggling to go higher right now with the dailys topping out.
NG - Near term oversold and I'm looking for a pop here before further weakness. It is sitting on it's 38% retracement right here. 5.21 max pop.
Gold - Climbing in what may be an ABC corrective. Up $100 in a little over a week. 60m headed down and dailys are topping. If the market begins to sell off so will gold I think.
EUR/USD - The pair has hit bottom I think (for now at least). Is it the dollar's turn to get devalued as they systematically work currencies to a point all this debt can be better managed? It has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of the lows in late '08. Looks to me like that was a 3 and now we're gonna get a 4 corrective up. 1.41 would be a good number. HERE is a good EUR/USD vid.
GL! Let's see what the pump machine has in store for us today. The weeklys are not ready to turn just yet, so those all giddy about a turn may have to wait till next week. We'll have to see.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Quiet Before The Storm?
Sorry for not posting last night or this morning, servers were down and internet access was a no go.
The Greece hot potato is being tossed around still, the ISM numbers were fictionally good, employment was fictionally good and the market closed flat.
Mish's thoughts on the ISM report and some factors surrounding it that you will not read elsewhere are in ISM Service Sector Expands, Backlog of Orders and Employment Still Contracting; Public Sector Catchup Coming. The thing I like most about what Mish is bringing to the table these days is his focus on the state and city level budget shortfalls. These will hit home more than the "national" bullshit you read about on a daily basis. In this post is a link to a recent speech given by the new NJ Governor Christie. Please take a moment to watch this. This guy is ready to kick some butt and take names to get his states budget shortfalls worked out and he does not care who gets pissed. It is the best thing I have heard in a long time. Denninger takes on the ISM BS in We're Schizoid! (Non-Manufacturing ISM). Both are not that impressed and poke unique holes in the report.
You market timers may find this one interesting (I finally went short today BTW) Has Goldman Called The Market Top: GS Sells $3.1 Million Leveraged Index-Linked Notes Referenced To 1123.7 On The S&P. Zero Hedge as usual is above the line on their reporting and timing of reports. This one is quite interesting. Maybe we can take advantage of a tip from the gods on high (and hope like hell it is not a sucker play).
Since everyone else has posted it, I'll complete the circle - No Wonder the Economy Isn't Improving from Washington's Blog is a wonderful post on the idiocy demonstrated by our leaders and an expose of the bullshit that flows endlessly from Washington (sounds like something I would like!).
TPC has this from Rosy - ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY. “In a secular bull market, a six-month trading range can be viewed as a pause that refreshes. But in a secular bear market, it more than likely reflects a classic topping formation, as was the case in the spring and summer of 2007 when the S&P 500 also flirted with the 1,500 mark for as long a period as it has hovered around the 1,100 threshold since last fall. Keep in mind that similar to 2007, we are starting to see some fraying around the edges in the latest set of economic data releases — jobless claims, housing starts and sales, core goods orders and shipments, construction, ISM and consumer confidence.” Put that with the GS report above and some of my fine analysis and I'd say you better be getting those horses saddled up.
In what I thought was the best new of the day, ZH has Philly Fed's Plosser Speaks: Too Big To Fail Must End, "I believe these three actions would go a long way toward improving financial stability. Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies." Damn, two tough and sensible speeches in the same week, what, did Washington run out of cool-aide?
Last, but not least, I bring you a radio interview from Bob Chapman that I thought was interesting. I like the way this guy thinks (extreme like me). This may be a bit conspiracy laced for some of you, but maybe it is time to buy into some of those theories. "They are preparing for a large world wide meeting of the kind of the Smithsonian meeting in the seventies and they will decide from there which currency to devalue against which ...The whole Toyota issue is the American government behind the scenes telling the Japanese either you buy my treasuries or I destroy your best exporting part of the industry.... The UK may break up from the European Union, Warren Buffett should be in jail not in CNBC says Bob Chapman , 10 years ago everybody knew that Greece and Italy were in bad shape but everybody looked at the other side ..."
For the latest on the Greece saga, you can always turn to this link at the FT.com.
Have a good evening.
The Greece hot potato is being tossed around still, the ISM numbers were fictionally good, employment was fictionally good and the market closed flat.
Mish's thoughts on the ISM report and some factors surrounding it that you will not read elsewhere are in ISM Service Sector Expands, Backlog of Orders and Employment Still Contracting; Public Sector Catchup Coming. The thing I like most about what Mish is bringing to the table these days is his focus on the state and city level budget shortfalls. These will hit home more than the "national" bullshit you read about on a daily basis. In this post is a link to a recent speech given by the new NJ Governor Christie. Please take a moment to watch this. This guy is ready to kick some butt and take names to get his states budget shortfalls worked out and he does not care who gets pissed. It is the best thing I have heard in a long time. Denninger takes on the ISM BS in We're Schizoid! (Non-Manufacturing ISM). Both are not that impressed and poke unique holes in the report.
You market timers may find this one interesting (I finally went short today BTW) Has Goldman Called The Market Top: GS Sells $3.1 Million Leveraged Index-Linked Notes Referenced To 1123.7 On The S&P. Zero Hedge as usual is above the line on their reporting and timing of reports. This one is quite interesting. Maybe we can take advantage of a tip from the gods on high (and hope like hell it is not a sucker play).
Since everyone else has posted it, I'll complete the circle - No Wonder the Economy Isn't Improving from Washington's Blog is a wonderful post on the idiocy demonstrated by our leaders and an expose of the bullshit that flows endlessly from Washington (sounds like something I would like!).
TPC has this from Rosy - ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY. “In a secular bull market, a six-month trading range can be viewed as a pause that refreshes. But in a secular bear market, it more than likely reflects a classic topping formation, as was the case in the spring and summer of 2007 when the S&P 500 also flirted with the 1,500 mark for as long a period as it has hovered around the 1,100 threshold since last fall. Keep in mind that similar to 2007, we are starting to see some fraying around the edges in the latest set of economic data releases — jobless claims, housing starts and sales, core goods orders and shipments, construction, ISM and consumer confidence.” Put that with the GS report above and some of my fine analysis and I'd say you better be getting those horses saddled up.
In what I thought was the best new of the day, ZH has Philly Fed's Plosser Speaks: Too Big To Fail Must End, "I believe these three actions would go a long way toward improving financial stability. Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies." Damn, two tough and sensible speeches in the same week, what, did Washington run out of cool-aide?
Last, but not least, I bring you a radio interview from Bob Chapman that I thought was interesting. I like the way this guy thinks (extreme like me). This may be a bit conspiracy laced for some of you, but maybe it is time to buy into some of those theories. "They are preparing for a large world wide meeting of the kind of the Smithsonian meeting in the seventies and they will decide from there which currency to devalue against which ...The whole Toyota issue is the American government behind the scenes telling the Japanese either you buy my treasuries or I destroy your best exporting part of the industry.... The UK may break up from the European Union, Warren Buffett should be in jail not in CNBC says Bob Chapman , 10 years ago everybody knew that Greece and Italy were in bad shape but everybody looked at the other side ..."
For the latest on the Greece saga, you can always turn to this link at the FT.com.
Have a good evening.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Tick, Tick, Tick - BOOM!
Well, not BOOM! yet, but we're getting closer.
The definition of insanity is what it is. SSDD. But what if this insanity is some sort of measured move by a bunch of really greedy mofos that knew what they were doing all along? Or, a bunch of greedy mofos that royally screwed up trying to build massive wealth, got bailed out and in the face of disaster wound up owning everything anyway?
Bottom line, luck or planned, the banks have pwned society. They now have all the money, all the power and we are all indebted to them basically forever (yes, even those of you that have paid off everything). This sad situation that began (for purposes of this point) in the early 90's with the blow out of regulatory powers is now ending with a ponzi scheme that will destroy the global financial system.
Financial fraud is rampant. From The Rumor Bag: Financial Firms Receiving Widespread Subpoenas For Euro Shorting Collusion from Zero Hedge is the latest and greatest on wire. Maybe the Europeans have a bigger set of regulatory testicles than we have and something may actually come of the persecution rather than the obligatory fine and admission to NOTHING.
Yes, I said destroy the global financial system. Zero Hedge also found this one from Chris Wood on CNBS - CLSA's Chris Wood "In Five Years The US Dollar Paper Standard Will Collapse". I agree on the total collapse of the dollar paper standard but not with any of his optimism surrounding anything regarding strength in any markets. He tells the tale I tell. It all statrts with a meltdown in Europe and the tsunami winds up here where it was all created.
I enjoyed this Ron Paul vid Broken Us Government with Ron Paul.avi Listen to the man. He's been the only one warning us of the truth and crisis for years. "We are insolvent...Governments always liquidate debt by destroying the currency." If you don't listen to me will you listen to RP?
Denninger has (via ZH) Balance Sheet Fraud Is Not Just For Enron (Or Banks). I bring it you you from Karl cause he dubs it down better. "That is no hedge, it is a loan. It was done to cook the book and, in my opinion, falsely present the "health" of the nation - in this case Italy - involved. It was done over the counter with no paper trail or exchange trading for the explicit purpose of secrecy, so that nobody would discern that the government in question had borrowed the money." Countries, states, pensions, Social Security - you name it - ALL INFLATED BULLSHIT. Kicking the can down the road borrowing and spending like there is no tomorrow. Well, tomorrow is finally here. We have been living above our means and creating bullshit Ponzi style financing for a couple of generations now. It is time to pay the band and we've nothing left.
One final note, just to bring it home to the state level (since most of our states are bigger than some of the sovereigns that are in trouble) Mish has - Rep. Suzie Bassi: "Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget"; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV "I do not know why economists believe in fairy tale economics and free lunches when the average 6th grader would know better. The only theory I can come up with to explain this phenomenon is a renewed outbreak of the Fiscal Insanity Virus rapidly spreading the globe. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is no doubt, infected." I keep harping on basic math. Simple math that says none of this can be afforded or paid off. None of it.
And now we have proof of TUNGSTEN? Gold bugs beware. Now no one knows what is real and what is not. Can this be real? I'll have to dig for the study, but i believe it has been proven that there is much more gold claimed to be owned that there has ever been mined in the history of the world.German ProSieben TV Channel Finds 500 Gram Tungsten Bar At W.C.Heraeus Gold Foundry With Bank Origin
You see, tick, tick, tick, the clock is ticking to global insolvency. The lies and fraudulent accounting have caught up to the countries and states that have fed at the debt trough for far to long (at the expense of the taxpayers around the globe so the banks could make billions). Don;t believe anyone that says this will be OK or that will be alright. Screw Swine Flu, the global financial system has something worse than the Ebola virus. The contagion was passed around in the money orgy. It has spread to every sovereign nation now. The only question that remains is what or who will survive the final meltdown.
The definition of insanity is what it is. SSDD. But what if this insanity is some sort of measured move by a bunch of really greedy mofos that knew what they were doing all along? Or, a bunch of greedy mofos that royally screwed up trying to build massive wealth, got bailed out and in the face of disaster wound up owning everything anyway?
Bottom line, luck or planned, the banks have pwned society. They now have all the money, all the power and we are all indebted to them basically forever (yes, even those of you that have paid off everything). This sad situation that began (for purposes of this point) in the early 90's with the blow out of regulatory powers is now ending with a ponzi scheme that will destroy the global financial system.
Financial fraud is rampant. From The Rumor Bag: Financial Firms Receiving Widespread Subpoenas For Euro Shorting Collusion from Zero Hedge is the latest and greatest on wire. Maybe the Europeans have a bigger set of regulatory testicles than we have and something may actually come of the persecution rather than the obligatory fine and admission to NOTHING.
Yes, I said destroy the global financial system. Zero Hedge also found this one from Chris Wood on CNBS - CLSA's Chris Wood "In Five Years The US Dollar Paper Standard Will Collapse". I agree on the total collapse of the dollar paper standard but not with any of his optimism surrounding anything regarding strength in any markets. He tells the tale I tell. It all statrts with a meltdown in Europe and the tsunami winds up here where it was all created.
I enjoyed this Ron Paul vid Broken Us Government with Ron Paul.avi Listen to the man. He's been the only one warning us of the truth and crisis for years. "We are insolvent...Governments always liquidate debt by destroying the currency." If you don't listen to me will you listen to RP?
Denninger has (via ZH) Balance Sheet Fraud Is Not Just For Enron (Or Banks). I bring it you you from Karl cause he dubs it down better. "That is no hedge, it is a loan. It was done to cook the book and, in my opinion, falsely present the "health" of the nation - in this case Italy - involved. It was done over the counter with no paper trail or exchange trading for the explicit purpose of secrecy, so that nobody would discern that the government in question had borrowed the money." Countries, states, pensions, Social Security - you name it - ALL INFLATED BULLSHIT. Kicking the can down the road borrowing and spending like there is no tomorrow. Well, tomorrow is finally here. We have been living above our means and creating bullshit Ponzi style financing for a couple of generations now. It is time to pay the band and we've nothing left.
One final note, just to bring it home to the state level (since most of our states are bigger than some of the sovereigns that are in trouble) Mish has - Rep. Suzie Bassi: "Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget"; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV "I do not know why economists believe in fairy tale economics and free lunches when the average 6th grader would know better. The only theory I can come up with to explain this phenomenon is a renewed outbreak of the Fiscal Insanity Virus rapidly spreading the globe. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is no doubt, infected." I keep harping on basic math. Simple math that says none of this can be afforded or paid off. None of it.
And now we have proof of TUNGSTEN? Gold bugs beware. Now no one knows what is real and what is not. Can this be real? I'll have to dig for the study, but i believe it has been proven that there is much more gold claimed to be owned that there has ever been mined in the history of the world.German ProSieben TV Channel Finds 500 Gram Tungsten Bar At W.C.Heraeus Gold Foundry With Bank Origin
You see, tick, tick, tick, the clock is ticking to global insolvency. The lies and fraudulent accounting have caught up to the countries and states that have fed at the debt trough for far to long (at the expense of the taxpayers around the globe so the banks could make billions). Don;t believe anyone that says this will be OK or that will be alright. Screw Swine Flu, the global financial system has something worse than the Ebola virus. The contagion was passed around in the money orgy. It has spread to every sovereign nation now. The only question that remains is what or who will survive the final meltdown.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Every Day Is One Step Closer To The End
Long, slow, painful (yet titillating at the same time if you are into that kind of thing) march to the end. The set up is right in front of your face. Banks hoarding cash and not lending. They know the breadth and depth of the problems. They are now enacting rules and legislation to guard against runs on the banks. Do you really think if things were getting better they would be enacting such policies?
Infowars.com did a nice piece on Citibank Controversy Puts Dubious FDIC Guarantee Back In The Spotlight that covers the issues facing the banks and FDIC limits. "Alarmingly, The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. only has about $50 billion to “insure” about $1 trillion in assets across the nation’s financial institutions. This was even admitted in a Yahoo.com article shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. When Americans realize the fact that banks are “going to run out of money”, the article nonchalantly stated, a run on the banks will accelerate." Do not forget the FDIC is basically bankrupt (and the banks are refusing to come off of cash even to fund their obligations with them).
From the same post - ready for this? Want to be scared shitless? “The requirement is part of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933. It applies to all accounts classified as Negotiable Order of Withdrawal [NOW] accounts – basically interest-bearing checking and savings accounts held by individuals and non-profits. Banks are not required to hold reserves in place to cover NOW accounts, so the rule prevents a run on withdrawals for which there are no reserves,” states the report." (emphasis mine) Nice! I feel a lot better. Thanks Congress. Thanks a bunch! Uh, isn't that ass friggin backwards? Apparently not.
That is mostly right. A run on the banks from the citizens would be a big deal, but remember Dubai and that nasty thing called fractal lending that has caused this credit driven fuck up. They are not worried about you or me getting the funds. They are worried about Dubai demanding their $10 billion in deposits (fractal that). They are worried about sovereign runs on the banks. It will get ugly cause they don't have the money.
As always Mish does a nice job with the unemployment report. He has a unique way of bringing the worts ot of it almost every time. In Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike To 496,000; Will Reality Soon Set In? "At some point however, reality will eventually set in. Without jobs, all this happy talk about the impending recovery, and all of Bernanke's yapping about low rates, will not satisfy the market. It is going to take both jobs and an increase in consumer spending to lift the economy. From where I sit, neither is coming."
Your daily Greece update comes courtesy of Zero Hedge in Greece Deterioration Hits Nitrous: IMF, EU, ECB Find Greek Plan €4.8 Billion Short. You can only squeeze so much blood out of the turnip. This is it. This is what I see spreading globally. this is the main point of denial. Massive wage deflation and everyone is held captive to the banksters that we bailed out that caused this mess. What a friggin job that must be, huh?
Well the NYT has Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide. Well? You don't think they KNEW this was coming did you? Nah, GS did not sell them (and numerous other countries) the systemic CDO's that caused their financial system to rot from the inside, all while knowing they would and having handsome bets on the other side. Friggin amazing stuff. Who needs regulations? ZH gave a nice graphic in Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus of their sexy looking bond spreads today.
Infowars.com did a nice piece on Citibank Controversy Puts Dubious FDIC Guarantee Back In The Spotlight that covers the issues facing the banks and FDIC limits. "Alarmingly, The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. only has about $50 billion to “insure” about $1 trillion in assets across the nation’s financial institutions. This was even admitted in a Yahoo.com article shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. When Americans realize the fact that banks are “going to run out of money”, the article nonchalantly stated, a run on the banks will accelerate." Do not forget the FDIC is basically bankrupt (and the banks are refusing to come off of cash even to fund their obligations with them).
From the same post - ready for this? Want to be scared shitless? “The requirement is part of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933. It applies to all accounts classified as Negotiable Order of Withdrawal [NOW] accounts – basically interest-bearing checking and savings accounts held by individuals and non-profits. Banks are not required to hold reserves in place to cover NOW accounts, so the rule prevents a run on withdrawals for which there are no reserves,” states the report." (emphasis mine) Nice! I feel a lot better. Thanks Congress. Thanks a bunch! Uh, isn't that ass friggin backwards? Apparently not.
That is mostly right. A run on the banks from the citizens would be a big deal, but remember Dubai and that nasty thing called fractal lending that has caused this credit driven fuck up. They are not worried about you or me getting the funds. They are worried about Dubai demanding their $10 billion in deposits (fractal that). They are worried about sovereign runs on the banks. It will get ugly cause they don't have the money.
As always Mish does a nice job with the unemployment report. He has a unique way of bringing the worts ot of it almost every time. In Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike To 496,000; Will Reality Soon Set In? "At some point however, reality will eventually set in. Without jobs, all this happy talk about the impending recovery, and all of Bernanke's yapping about low rates, will not satisfy the market. It is going to take both jobs and an increase in consumer spending to lift the economy. From where I sit, neither is coming."
Your daily Greece update comes courtesy of Zero Hedge in Greece Deterioration Hits Nitrous: IMF, EU, ECB Find Greek Plan €4.8 Billion Short. You can only squeeze so much blood out of the turnip. This is it. This is what I see spreading globally. this is the main point of denial. Massive wage deflation and everyone is held captive to the banksters that we bailed out that caused this mess. What a friggin job that must be, huh?
Well the NYT has Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide. Well? You don't think they KNEW this was coming did you? Nah, GS did not sell them (and numerous other countries) the systemic CDO's that caused their financial system to rot from the inside, all while knowing they would and having handsome bets on the other side. Friggin amazing stuff. Who needs regulations? ZH gave a nice graphic in Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus of their sexy looking bond spreads today.
Late yesterday Denninger put out Clap-Clap (Weil and The Mark-To-Market Scam) which covers the mark-to-myth scandal I do not cover enough (In plain terms the reason the banks are all actually insolvent). The Enron style accounting has led us to this, "We've done nothing other than making legal accounting lies. The impairment and thus the actual economic loss still exists, and while we may have pushed it off another year that actually makes it worse, because these non-accruing loans gather more and more hair on them the longer they sit around without being either foreclosed, put back, or otherwise disposed of. This part of The Bezzle is one of the worst examples in this entire sordid mess and if Congress won't grow a pair then FASB needs to - right now." I keep telling you we're really screwed. Like really deep shit.
On the issue of lack of regulation Washington's blog has Economist With Financial Services Committee For Eleven Years, Assisting With Oversight of the Fed, Lends Support to Ron Paul's Questions "Today, Ron Paul accused the Federal Reserve of having a hand in nefarious plots such as Watergate and arming Saddam Hussein. House Financial Services Committee Chair Barney Frank said that the Committee should look into it." We really need to audit the Fed before it is to late. Heck, I'm not sure I want to even do it now. Scared of what we might find. Talk about Armageddon?
We're getting closer every day. Sure more QE may be coming but what good will it really do? Kick the can down the road another 6 month to a year and just dig an even deeper hole while stuffing the banksters balance sheets with more of your future tax dollars. Friggin GREAT! Sign me up! TWICE! I hope you all realize I am not blowing smoke here. Every night I bring you real world situations that should scare you to death. Massive deflation is coming to a street near you. Greece should be your model. I just hope like hell we come out of this a free nation.
This is AWESOME - Max at 7:00 - paints a really clear picture. the whole world will hate us when this is all over.
This is AWESOME - Max at 7:00 - paints a really clear picture. the whole world will hate us when this is all over.
GL and have a good evening!
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Out On A Limb - A Very Thin Limb!
Up, up, up we go! Thank goodness for the reflation trade. Lord knows our bubble may have burst and that would have been horrendous! Thank goodness the removed FRE and FNM from the federal budget, wrapped them in protective bubble wrap, removed all sharp objects from the room and put them in the closet not to be addressed till 2011. Phew, I feel better now that they have addressed that problem!
Why the out on a limb title? Well, anytime I bring Prechter into the mix it gets dangerous. The timing is better for his prophecy this time. The link Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time (the title kind of says it all - this time) takes you to a good article and a series of videos you may want to listen to. The whole series is pretty good. Even better, I don't think he mentions the word "top" once! Bottom line is the vids provide a nice all around primer for everyone.
Further out on the limb I go when I bring you Jon Stewart. Last night he did a great piece on how we're getting screwed by the CC companies in Make it Rain - Bank of America - Wyatt Cenac examines Bank of America's hidden credit card fees with a former employee and a mafia loan shark that is worth a look. The loan shark at the end is really funny.
Since the economy is out on a thin limb why not cover some of the action today. The news today was just as nasty and bountiful as any other, but you never would have known that given the markets actions. The MSM cheer leading propaganda machine tends to neglect major news events as well (or spins them if they should be forced to cover a tough issue).
Mish's site is full of wonderful posts every day (if you are into the doom and gloom thang). Just view the recent posts list on the left side and start reading. Today he has Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator?. This is a good one in the case that the bulltards will spin and twist the numbers as big buying signal, but Mish (and I) think differently, "Rather than being a contrarian play, I think consumers have reached the recognition phase, with a panic phase yet to follow. This possibility is something that economists might want to take into consideration if they would ever take off their rose colored glasses and view the real world for how it is. It may be darkest before dawn, but the sun has barely set. The contrarian play is to bet against the masses who misunderstand history."
Pension Pulse has a great post on something I like to key on every now and then, underfunded pension obligations. In Pension Systems on the Brink? you get a nice report that breaks down the major flaws that exist in the $1 Trillion unfunded gap. This is a HUGE deal. States can not fund these obligations (they never have - how could they now). Big brother to borrow from to fund obligations (read - living on xtra credit just like everyone else to get thru) is no longer there. This will be a huge part of the total meltdown (especially after P3 hits and the unfunded portion skyrocket).
I suggest that you troll on over to Calculated Risk and sample the fare there. The news surrounding the RE/housing crisis was not pretty today. CR covers it from every angle.
For those of you that rarely go to Zero Hedge, just pop over there and read the headlines of the posts today. It will make your head spin. (Don't look at yesterday's unless you want your head to spin so fast you wind up getting sick)
LOL, what do we find at the tip of the limb? Denninger on Kaiser Report? Yup, only in Russia can you get something that good. Karl comes on about 14min into the program and then stumbles thru explaining the difficult to explain synthetic CDO's that have wiped out Greece and made the banksters rich biach while some hypnotic circle spins in the background (psychedelics not provided). The whole 30m is worth watching IMO.
Not sure who put the water wings on the markets in the last fifteen minutes of trading or if TOS just has some errors (nothing happened on the minis).
Have a good one.
Why the out on a limb title? Well, anytime I bring Prechter into the mix it gets dangerous. The timing is better for his prophecy this time. The link Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time (the title kind of says it all - this time) takes you to a good article and a series of videos you may want to listen to. The whole series is pretty good. Even better, I don't think he mentions the word "top" once! Bottom line is the vids provide a nice all around primer for everyone.
Further out on the limb I go when I bring you Jon Stewart. Last night he did a great piece on how we're getting screwed by the CC companies in Make it Rain - Bank of America - Wyatt Cenac examines Bank of America's hidden credit card fees with a former employee and a mafia loan shark that is worth a look. The loan shark at the end is really funny.
Since the economy is out on a thin limb why not cover some of the action today. The news today was just as nasty and bountiful as any other, but you never would have known that given the markets actions. The MSM cheer leading propaganda machine tends to neglect major news events as well (or spins them if they should be forced to cover a tough issue).
Mish's site is full of wonderful posts every day (if you are into the doom and gloom thang). Just view the recent posts list on the left side and start reading. Today he has Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator?. This is a good one in the case that the bulltards will spin and twist the numbers as big buying signal, but Mish (and I) think differently, "Rather than being a contrarian play, I think consumers have reached the recognition phase, with a panic phase yet to follow. This possibility is something that economists might want to take into consideration if they would ever take off their rose colored glasses and view the real world for how it is. It may be darkest before dawn, but the sun has barely set. The contrarian play is to bet against the masses who misunderstand history."
Pension Pulse has a great post on something I like to key on every now and then, underfunded pension obligations. In Pension Systems on the Brink? you get a nice report that breaks down the major flaws that exist in the $1 Trillion unfunded gap. This is a HUGE deal. States can not fund these obligations (they never have - how could they now). Big brother to borrow from to fund obligations (read - living on xtra credit just like everyone else to get thru) is no longer there. This will be a huge part of the total meltdown (especially after P3 hits and the unfunded portion skyrocket).
I suggest that you troll on over to Calculated Risk and sample the fare there. The news surrounding the RE/housing crisis was not pretty today. CR covers it from every angle.
For those of you that rarely go to Zero Hedge, just pop over there and read the headlines of the posts today. It will make your head spin. (Don't look at yesterday's unless you want your head to spin so fast you wind up getting sick)
LOL, what do we find at the tip of the limb? Denninger on Kaiser Report? Yup, only in Russia can you get something that good. Karl comes on about 14min into the program and then stumbles thru explaining the difficult to explain synthetic CDO's that have wiped out Greece and made the banksters rich biach while some hypnotic circle spins in the background (psychedelics not provided). The whole 30m is worth watching IMO.
Not sure who put the water wings on the markets in the last fifteen minutes of trading or if TOS just has some errors (nothing happened on the minis).
Have a good one.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Shit + Fan = Huge Mess
It is always nice to be able to see the train coming and not have to suffer a blind side crash. In this case that light at the end of the tunnel (no, don't go towards it) is the global financial default coming on the express route to a country near you.
I suggest you watch Mob Madness - Greece on YouTube to get a glimpse of one reporter's views and opinions of the troubles they face and the building anarchy on the streets there. This country is being ripped apart from core. They are so far in debt that even if bailed out they could not pay that off. This is what the EU knows. This is why they have not spent a penny on solving the problem. Finally, the situation may be clear to the lords of finance. The monster of debt created by the beast of cheap credit, corruption and extremely loose global liquidity can not be fed anymore. We are out of food and have one hungry monster (the banks) that want to be fed.
Here is a glimpse of why our nation is enacting the unthinkable limits on demand deposits (see Citigroup can limit demand deposit withdrawals and money funds can too). You see. it is not such A Wonderful Life. We have taken the red pill and are stuck on a bad trip to Pottersville. The big bad bankers have looted all your money and now the sumbitches don't want to give it back in the form of credit or in the form of cash. In a rare glimpse of what will (not may) be coming our way in the near future is Greeks Scramble To Pull Out €8 Billion From Local Banks As Greece Responds With Money Control Measures. "This represents over a quarter of the money held by private banks in the country. This also represents about €400 billion in total money leaving the system courtesy of fractional reserve banking and the money multiplier. Yet the worst news for Greeks: money controls are coming". If you need to read that two or three times to get it to sink in go ahead.
How can I so boldly say this is coming our way? Cause we are now in full debt monetization mode. In ZH's Charting The Indrect Bidder Hit Ratio After Today's 100% Result, And Anticipating A Surge In Brand New SFP Issuance you get, "This SFP news is relevant because today's Indirect Hit Ratio demonstrates that the "sales" of $195 billion in new SFP bills will merely go to Primary Dealers and whoever the increasingly less mysterious Direct Bidder is, as Indirects phase out all Bill interest altogether." Monetization of debt. We are printing money to support out debt payments. Whooo Whooo - hear that train whistle. It is calling. It is empty now. All the passengers got off. We are the only ones buying our debt now. How long till the big money grab starts and countries (well, China already is) start cashing out? Uh, folks, the system was not designed nor ever intended to experience a cashing out. That is where global default comes into play. Anyone care to take a peek at the National Debt Clock?
It wont be long till the PIIGS all start falling apart (really every debtor nation globally). They will all topple one by one from the overload of debt created by zero regulation and a corrupt and greedy banking system. It is surreal cause you are able to see it all happening in slow motion in real time. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Denial is the state that most of us are living in. This can't be happening. This is not real. It can not happen here. Sorry folks, it is real and that train is coming. It is big, heavy and at this point futile to try and stop. It will rip its way across the globe causing all sorts of devastation and destruction. Not until that train is derailed will we have any sort of recovery.
Maybe we are not in denial. If the Consumer Confidence Survey is accurate at all maybe we are waking up. Mish does a nice job with Consumer Confidence Plunges To 46, Lowest Since April; Current Conditions Lowest Since 1983 "Housing has stalled with another leg down coming, jobs are pathetic, taxes are headed higher, and debt levels are unsustainably high. Pray tell what is there for consumers to be optimistic about?" (What is really funny is at the beginning of all this mess in 2007 I used to read Mish and get depressed. Glad I don't have to read my own stuff LOL.) And from Rasmussen Reports 73% Agree That Washington Is “Broken” and Obama's approval rating is .... -19. That is really, really bad for the man from HOPE and CHANGE.
Wake up people. Get involved. Force the issues. We need massive amounts of regulation first and foremost. Then all you will be able to do is hang on till that train has done all the damage. We'll come out of the rubble and rebuild. What America will look like will be anyone's guess? We'll be OK in the long run as we always are, but some really tough times are ahead. Whooo Whooo.
Take care.
I suggest you watch Mob Madness - Greece on YouTube to get a glimpse of one reporter's views and opinions of the troubles they face and the building anarchy on the streets there. This country is being ripped apart from core. They are so far in debt that even if bailed out they could not pay that off. This is what the EU knows. This is why they have not spent a penny on solving the problem. Finally, the situation may be clear to the lords of finance. The monster of debt created by the beast of cheap credit, corruption and extremely loose global liquidity can not be fed anymore. We are out of food and have one hungry monster (the banks) that want to be fed.
Here is a glimpse of why our nation is enacting the unthinkable limits on demand deposits (see Citigroup can limit demand deposit withdrawals and money funds can too). You see. it is not such A Wonderful Life. We have taken the red pill and are stuck on a bad trip to Pottersville. The big bad bankers have looted all your money and now the sumbitches don't want to give it back in the form of credit or in the form of cash. In a rare glimpse of what will (not may) be coming our way in the near future is Greeks Scramble To Pull Out €8 Billion From Local Banks As Greece Responds With Money Control Measures. "This represents over a quarter of the money held by private banks in the country. This also represents about €400 billion in total money leaving the system courtesy of fractional reserve banking and the money multiplier. Yet the worst news for Greeks: money controls are coming". If you need to read that two or three times to get it to sink in go ahead.
How can I so boldly say this is coming our way? Cause we are now in full debt monetization mode. In ZH's Charting The Indrect Bidder Hit Ratio After Today's 100% Result, And Anticipating A Surge In Brand New SFP Issuance you get, "This SFP news is relevant because today's Indirect Hit Ratio demonstrates that the "sales" of $195 billion in new SFP bills will merely go to Primary Dealers and whoever the increasingly less mysterious Direct Bidder is, as Indirects phase out all Bill interest altogether." Monetization of debt. We are printing money to support out debt payments. Whooo Whooo - hear that train whistle. It is calling. It is empty now. All the passengers got off. We are the only ones buying our debt now. How long till the big money grab starts and countries (well, China already is) start cashing out? Uh, folks, the system was not designed nor ever intended to experience a cashing out. That is where global default comes into play. Anyone care to take a peek at the National Debt Clock?
It wont be long till the PIIGS all start falling apart (really every debtor nation globally). They will all topple one by one from the overload of debt created by zero regulation and a corrupt and greedy banking system. It is surreal cause you are able to see it all happening in slow motion in real time. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Denial is the state that most of us are living in. This can't be happening. This is not real. It can not happen here. Sorry folks, it is real and that train is coming. It is big, heavy and at this point futile to try and stop. It will rip its way across the globe causing all sorts of devastation and destruction. Not until that train is derailed will we have any sort of recovery.
Maybe we are not in denial. If the Consumer Confidence Survey is accurate at all maybe we are waking up. Mish does a nice job with Consumer Confidence Plunges To 46, Lowest Since April; Current Conditions Lowest Since 1983 "Housing has stalled with another leg down coming, jobs are pathetic, taxes are headed higher, and debt levels are unsustainably high. Pray tell what is there for consumers to be optimistic about?" (What is really funny is at the beginning of all this mess in 2007 I used to read Mish and get depressed. Glad I don't have to read my own stuff LOL.) And from Rasmussen Reports 73% Agree That Washington Is “Broken” and Obama's approval rating is .... -19. That is really, really bad for the man from HOPE and CHANGE.
Wake up people. Get involved. Force the issues. We need massive amounts of regulation first and foremost. Then all you will be able to do is hang on till that train has done all the damage. We'll come out of the rubble and rebuild. What America will look like will be anyone's guess? We'll be OK in the long run as we always are, but some really tough times are ahead. Whooo Whooo.
Take care.
Monday, February 22, 2010
News Time!
Gotta be a quickie tonight - I am coaching coach pitch baseball (this will be the last year I think) and have to get to practice.
Mish has Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012, an incredibly detailed post that will have you feeling less better after you read it (or better if you are a perma bear like me).
As we watch the EU implode, Mish pulled this one Italy a Bigger Threat to EU than Greece; Italian Derivatives Draw Scrutiny; Mundell Wants Cap on Euro Gains; Academic Wonderland he notes the conundrum facing each nation these days, "It is impossible for everyone to get what they want: a weaker currency vs. everyone else hoping to stimulate exports."
Since I brought up Wonderland, just what has been happening behind the curtains over there? ZH has The Chairman Of Goldman Sachs Bank, And Former FRBNY President, Says Many European Countries Used Comparable Debt-Hiding Swap Transactions
TPC has THE ONE CHART THAT SCARES RICHARD RUSSELL most of us are salivation over TBT and where it may go one day. They are scared, I'm looking forward to it. USB (30yr) is set to bust one sooner than later.
Several blogs covered this one, but WB's conspiracy tint is the best I think -McCain: Paulson and Bernanke Promised that the $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program Would Focus on the Housing Meltdown
Enjoy! See you in the am.
Mish has Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012, an incredibly detailed post that will have you feeling less better after you read it (or better if you are a perma bear like me).
As we watch the EU implode, Mish pulled this one Italy a Bigger Threat to EU than Greece; Italian Derivatives Draw Scrutiny; Mundell Wants Cap on Euro Gains; Academic Wonderland he notes the conundrum facing each nation these days, "It is impossible for everyone to get what they want: a weaker currency vs. everyone else hoping to stimulate exports."
Since I brought up Wonderland, just what has been happening behind the curtains over there? ZH has The Chairman Of Goldman Sachs Bank, And Former FRBNY President, Says Many European Countries Used Comparable Debt-Hiding Swap Transactions
TPC has THE ONE CHART THAT SCARES RICHARD RUSSELL most of us are salivation over TBT and where it may go one day. They are scared, I'm looking forward to it. USB (30yr) is set to bust one sooner than later.
Several blogs covered this one, but WB's conspiracy tint is the best I think -McCain: Paulson and Bernanke Promised that the $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program Would Focus on the Housing Meltdown
Ritholtz has Policy Errors Dog Treasury Secretary "Ignore that misleading headline — the article itself is not so much about the anger over the bailouts, but instead details the policy decisions and political choices Geithner made as Treasury Secretary. The litany is not pretty." That it is not. I found this one quite humerus.
Enjoy! See you in the am.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Whutz In The Newz?
Isn't the market amazing? TD at Zero Hedge put it best, "So let's get this straight: we are hearing Iran is working on a nuclear warhead, an alleged rogue Mossad force in Dubai killing Hamas operatives, Greece about to file, Britain getting punished by a term that was in vogue when people still listening to a Flock of Seagulls, tax refunds getting halted, and now a possible redux of the Falklands war, and what do we have? A market that is up nearly 1% on vapor as a major "technical level was breached." The backstop - assorted central banks will be forced to rotate the "print" dial to Turbo Max. All we can say is LOL." Just another day in paradise!
SURPRISE! after the bell - Fed Begins Tightening Process: Discount Rate Raised To 0.75% From 0.5%, Futures Plunge, Dollar Surges. Nice of them to have verbiage like "the unforeseeable future" in their outlooks. I guess that means a week or two.
Mish paints a not so pretty picture in Unsustainable Spending Trends in Graphical Form; Monthly Treasury Statement February 2010. Remember the other day when I was encouraging you to do the math and how none of this can work? Well if you are mathmatically deficient, this will help.
We need to take a closer look into what may happen in Chinasooner than later and naked capitalism has a good read in Thinking the Unthinkable: What if China Devalues the Renminbi? The best quote, "It could get very ugly."
I believe Matt Taibbi is doing the best job at historically documenting what I believe is the truth behind most of this financial nonsense. While the history books will no doubt claim Greenspan and Bernanke as the next version of founding fathers. We all know better. Must read - Taibbi: "Goldman Raped The Taxpayer, And Raped Their Clients"
You knew I would get to the plane crash sooner or later. Here is ZH's posting of the suicide note, the uber conspiracy laced infowars post and Denninger gives you a more lively take in This Is How It Begins (Wanton Violence). My thoughts....Dude had enough and took action into his own hands. The comments around the web label him from crackpot to patriot. I'm leaning more to patriot. I do my part in writing congress, supporting End the Fed and various other items I slam down your throats every night. While not on this extreme, I would love to see us all do more to wakre up the nation to the financial raping we are all experiencing at the hands of the Fed, Congress and Wall Street. I am deeply sorry for those in the collateral damage field and wish them all speedy recovery (I do not know if there were any fatalities). Sadly the solution may take more larger profile actions like this to wake up our leaders and let them know we have had enough. While I do not promote or condone violence or any actions that may hurt another, I can't help but think that another Kent State is coming down the road and their ability to control the masses this time will be feeble in comparison to the anger they are instilling in us. This financial massacre has to stop and they are doing nothing, I mean NOTHING, to stop it and we may just have to take actions into our own hands one day if it is not already to late.
Can't wait to see the markets in the am after that rate increase. It is well known they are between a rock and a hard place. the have to raise rates but can't. I'm willing to speculate on more raise and then they revert to zero in the future as they attempt to keep the banks solvent and the economy humming (LOL) while attempting to reduce liquidity.
GL out there. It should be about to get really ugly.
SURPRISE! after the bell - Fed Begins Tightening Process: Discount Rate Raised To 0.75% From 0.5%, Futures Plunge, Dollar Surges. Nice of them to have verbiage like "the unforeseeable future" in their outlooks. I guess that means a week or two.
Mish paints a not so pretty picture in Unsustainable Spending Trends in Graphical Form; Monthly Treasury Statement February 2010. Remember the other day when I was encouraging you to do the math and how none of this can work? Well if you are mathmatically deficient, this will help.
We need to take a closer look into what may happen in Chinasooner than later and naked capitalism has a good read in Thinking the Unthinkable: What if China Devalues the Renminbi? The best quote, "It could get very ugly."
I believe Matt Taibbi is doing the best job at historically documenting what I believe is the truth behind most of this financial nonsense. While the history books will no doubt claim Greenspan and Bernanke as the next version of founding fathers. We all know better. Must read - Taibbi: "Goldman Raped The Taxpayer, And Raped Their Clients"
You knew I would get to the plane crash sooner or later. Here is ZH's posting of the suicide note, the uber conspiracy laced infowars post and Denninger gives you a more lively take in This Is How It Begins (Wanton Violence). My thoughts....Dude had enough and took action into his own hands. The comments around the web label him from crackpot to patriot. I'm leaning more to patriot. I do my part in writing congress, supporting End the Fed and various other items I slam down your throats every night. While not on this extreme, I would love to see us all do more to wakre up the nation to the financial raping we are all experiencing at the hands of the Fed, Congress and Wall Street. I am deeply sorry for those in the collateral damage field and wish them all speedy recovery (I do not know if there were any fatalities). Sadly the solution may take more larger profile actions like this to wake up our leaders and let them know we have had enough. While I do not promote or condone violence or any actions that may hurt another, I can't help but think that another Kent State is coming down the road and their ability to control the masses this time will be feeble in comparison to the anger they are instilling in us. This financial massacre has to stop and they are doing nothing, I mean NOTHING, to stop it and we may just have to take actions into our own hands one day if it is not already to late.
Can't wait to see the markets in the am after that rate increase. It is well known they are between a rock and a hard place. the have to raise rates but can't. I'm willing to speculate on more raise and then they revert to zero in the future as they attempt to keep the banks solvent and the economy humming (LOL) while attempting to reduce liquidity.
GL out there. It should be about to get really ugly.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
IsThe Writing On The Wall?
The piece by Hoenig is either total manipulation BS being spewed but the powers that be to quell the Tea Party followers or there is one person at the Fed that has a brain. Actually they all have brains, it it morals they severely lack.
Mish has praised Knocking on the Central Bank’s Door by Thomas M. Hoenig, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in his post "Three Paths Forward" - Kansas City Fed on Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance, Hyperinflation, Printing. I guess having someone at least attempt to lay out some sort of exit strategy is nice. The only problem is he left the full frontal out of the equation.
Hoenig says, "I see just three ways forward in dealing with our current and prospective fiscal imbalances. While each involves considerable pain only the third will resolve the imbalances without eventually causing inflation to accelerate or precipitating a financial and economic crisis."
Option 1 - Monetize. "One option for dealing with a fiscal imbalance is for the central bank to succumb to political pressure and monetize the debt. ... This process often appears benign at first, but if it goes on unchecked, the outcome is almost always higher levels of inflation and ultimately a loss of confidence in the value of the currency and the economy." News flash! We're there already. With the Primary Dealers now buying huge chunks of the auctions and promptly being refunded those funds by the Fed and the recent increase in the treasurt debt ceiling limit by $1.9 T, we're there. So seeeeerike one!
Option Two - Policy Stalemate. "The second path forward is a stalemate between the fiscal and monetary authorities. In such a stalemate, the fiscal imbalance grows while an independent central bank maintains its focus on long-run price stability. ... Eventually, this combination of large debt, and high cost of borrowing and capital weakens economic growth and undermines confidence in the economy’s long run potential. Slowly, but inevitably, if the fiscal debt goes unaddressed, the currency weakens, as does access to global financial markets. And the cycle worsens, leading ultimately to a financial and economic crisis." We're already there again. The key words are "undermines confidence" and weakens economy". What's that about China pulling out (China Pulls the Plug on U.S. Treasuries)? Who bought what last year? Large debt and high cost of borrowing will lead to that $1.9 T being spent in a few months and the drug addict will be back at the door looking for another fix. As DP used to say, "And the whiff." Steeeeerike two!.
Option Three - Equitable Fiscal Discipline "Knowing inflation is not an acceptable alternative to strong fiscal management, a government faced with rising debt levels must provide a credible long-term plan to reestablish fiscal balance. The plan must be clear, have the force of law and its progress measurable so as to reassure markets and the public that the country has the will and ability to repay its debts in a stable currency." Steeeerike three! Flat footed watching a fastball down the middle! Plan? Anyone seen that plan laying around? You know the one with all those new job programs, ways to increase lending to small business and other measures to stimulate the economy while increasing regulations to ensure none of this ever happens again? Wait, not not that one, you mean the one to save the banks, funnel all of the TARP funds and increased taxes to the TBTFs? Oh, yeah, that one is right over here. They got a plan alright. One that puts us in the default line.
The Financial times picks up on Hoenig's speech in Lone voice warns of debt threat to Fed "The hawkish Kansas Fed president also warned against “dire” consequences of the central bank prolonging its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, which it purchased in an effort to prop up the US housing market. Mr Hoenig painted a picture of a slippery slope, where a less independent Federal Reserve was asked to find ways to support other ailing sectors, such as agriculture." LOL, don't forget about the Fed's balance sheet that is absolutely bloated with toxic debt and how their efforts to save the RE/CRE markets may have amounted to a big fat zero.
For those of you looking for a good debate on whether to hyperinflate ot not, here you go. And I quote, "While Donovan is correct in principle, the opportunity cost, should debt levels become insurmountable, of a devaluation will likely be actively considered by all financial "experts" in the administration. Coupled with a prevalent expectation that this kind of action, especially in light of Donovan's analysis, and coupled with a short-maturity focused debt curve, means that the likelihood of just such a policy is becoming increasingly likely."
You can chew on this as well - The Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota Warns Massive Debt Load Can Only Be Paid By Tax Collections Or Debt Monetization - Our options are fading fast and none of then are very appetizing. Tough times are coming.
Have a good one.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Confusion Reigns
I'm not sure which way is up anymore. As global turmoil and confusion reigns down on all of us, you have to wonder how they will wiggle their way out of this mess and find some reason to pump the markets full of eternal optimism that the reflation trade will work, the recession is over and all is well. You knew we'd be the ones on the white horse to save the day with the Greece issue (American taxpayer via the IMF). I guess we'll be financing the other PIIGS in the months to come. All is well. You should be superoverallocated in equities. Have no fear the great backstop is here.
Looking behind the curtain you will notice that our 30 year auctions are not doing so hot. Even Santelli said it failed although you would not know this by looking at the numbers. It all sold right? Not so fast my friend. In Putting Today's Record 30 Year Direct Take Down In Perspective ZH points out that, "Today, we saw a record explosion in the Direct take down for the longest bond purchasable. Just who are the Direct bidders? Whose orders are they executing? Are these merely a proxy for China or the Fed? What happens when that "mysterious" demand disappears? Nobody knows. Which is why Rick Santelli called this a failed auction." Funding our own debt is like a drug dealer dipping into his own stash. This is not a good combination, especially when the rate of the take down is increasing. Monetization is bad. Denninger echoes the sentiment in 30 Year Auction: A Solid "F".
Mish brings the swift changes to corporate bond yields to the table in Corporate Bond Yields Offer Hint Party Is Over. "I do not think that treasury yields break to the upside. However, they could. And if they do alongside corporate bond yields, there is a distinct possibility, and one that I have pointed out before, that there may be no places to hide in 2010 other than perhaps the much despised US dollar." You see they held rates artificially low as long as they could to make the market the only game in town. When the mass exit from the bond market commences, look out below. (I will take this moment to warn you about the possibilities of what I see as the many dangers in the muni markets as well.)
Denninger continues harping on the MTM issues for a good reason in Whistling Past The Graveyard We Be....., no one is listening or seems to care that assets held on balance sheets are marked to the most bogus amounts they can imagine. You would know why this is legal (cause the O allows it) if you read Yes, America is Still in an Official State of Emergency from my post the other night. Karl has, "Even companies that are allegedly "Strong" and have "No material exposure" are doing tricky things - witness CISCO's recent disclosure that it is funding customer financing at below-market interest rates (zero!) with off-balance sheet vehicles." This is the first I heard of CISCO's fiasco and am quite pleased to hear the sham has spread beyond the financials.
Ed Harrison with Credit Writedowns has penned Chandler: Uncertainty and contagion at work with Greece. Ed comes at the crisis from a good angle allowing you to see the full contagion that exists no matter how you try to fix the issue. "Now, if you were a Greek resident, you have to feel a bit panicky about the safety of your hard-earned savings given this scenario (see Guardian article). So, we could easily see the sovereign debt crisis spill over into bank runs. And if Greek banks implode, there is going to be a knock-on effect for other weak bankingsectors
like the Austrian or Irish. This is how contagion works." The maggots will consume the body from inside out and you will not see the damage till it is to late.
Investor psychology has been rapidly gaining ground as a scientific way to predict market moves. We are predictable and like to herd. ZH has a lengthly read on this subject that is well worth the read. In Just How Ugly Is The Sovereign Default Truth? How Self Delusions Prevent Recognition Of Reality you get "At that point the financial oligarchy will very much wish the Methadone had been administered sooner (roughly about March 2009, when we first suggested it). It will however be far too late, and the decades of self delusion will finally end." It is truly only a matter of time.
Sorry for missing this mornings post.
GL out there and have a great evening.
Looking behind the curtain you will notice that our 30 year auctions are not doing so hot. Even Santelli said it failed although you would not know this by looking at the numbers. It all sold right? Not so fast my friend. In Putting Today's Record 30 Year Direct Take Down In Perspective ZH points out that, "Today, we saw a record explosion in the Direct take down for the longest bond purchasable. Just who are the Direct bidders? Whose orders are they executing? Are these merely a proxy for China or the Fed? What happens when that "mysterious" demand disappears? Nobody knows. Which is why Rick Santelli called this a failed auction." Funding our own debt is like a drug dealer dipping into his own stash. This is not a good combination, especially when the rate of the take down is increasing. Monetization is bad. Denninger echoes the sentiment in 30 Year Auction: A Solid "F".
Mish brings the swift changes to corporate bond yields to the table in Corporate Bond Yields Offer Hint Party Is Over. "I do not think that treasury yields break to the upside. However, they could. And if they do alongside corporate bond yields, there is a distinct possibility, and one that I have pointed out before, that there may be no places to hide in 2010 other than perhaps the much despised US dollar." You see they held rates artificially low as long as they could to make the market the only game in town. When the mass exit from the bond market commences, look out below. (I will take this moment to warn you about the possibilities of what I see as the many dangers in the muni markets as well.)
Denninger continues harping on the MTM issues for a good reason in Whistling Past The Graveyard We Be....., no one is listening or seems to care that assets held on balance sheets are marked to the most bogus amounts they can imagine. You would know why this is legal (cause the O allows it) if you read Yes, America is Still in an Official State of Emergency from my post the other night. Karl has, "Even companies that are allegedly "Strong" and have "No material exposure" are doing tricky things - witness CISCO's recent disclosure that it is funding customer financing at below-market interest rates (zero!) with off-balance sheet vehicles." This is the first I heard of CISCO's fiasco and am quite pleased to hear the sham has spread beyond the financials.
Ed Harrison with Credit Writedowns has penned Chandler: Uncertainty and contagion at work with Greece. Ed comes at the crisis from a good angle allowing you to see the full contagion that exists no matter how you try to fix the issue. "Now, if you were a Greek resident, you have to feel a bit panicky about the safety of your hard-earned savings given this scenario (see Guardian article). So, we could easily see the sovereign debt crisis spill over into bank runs. And if Greek banks implode, there is going to be a knock-on effect for other weak banking
Investor psychology has been rapidly gaining ground as a scientific way to predict market moves. We are predictable and like to herd. ZH has a lengthly read on this subject that is well worth the read. In Just How Ugly Is The Sovereign Default Truth? How Self Delusions Prevent Recognition Of Reality you get "At that point the financial oligarchy will very much wish the Methadone had been administered sooner (roughly about March 2009, when we first suggested it). It will however be far too late, and the decades of self delusion will finally end." It is truly only a matter of time.
Sorry for missing this mornings post.
GL out there and have a great evening.
Monday, February 8, 2010
It All Boiles Down To The Pigs
UPDATE: "This is yet another AIG in the making, with Goldman this time likely threatening to accelerate the collapse not merely of the US financial system, but of the global one, in order to attain virtually infinite negotiating leverage. Of course, the world will not allow a Greece-initiated domino, allowing Goldman to call everyone's bluff once again." from this ZH post.
And dig this, "Furthermore, we are now convinced that Goldman will join the government in facilitating the engineered market swoon with a bifurcated goal: while the Treasury will take advantage of a sell off to offload as many UST as it can in the rush for safety (which could backfire now that Gold is increasingly seen as a dollar alternative), Goldman (with or without Warren Buffett - it depends on what the actuarial tables say) will jettison its own stock price in order to go private in an increasingly hostile world."
After a brief discussion I had today with someone "in the know" (yes, I know those people), that person stated that last week we were "within hours of a global financial meltdown" and narrowly avoided a total disaster. We were "closer than ever before" and "the EU may be the first domino to fall". That sat as bad in my stomach as the cafeteria food I had eating with my kids at school today. I don't think it is any secret that we're in a world of hurt and it is only a matter of time before it all falls apart. We can't backstop the world can we?
On to the news -
Glad things are getting back to normal - Back To Normal: Insider Selling Outpaces Buying By 58 To 1 - "Notable dispositions included Bill Gates selling $85 million worth of MSFT, Roger Pensky dumping over $100 million, and Juniper Chairman Scott Kriens selling $12.5 million worth of JNPR stock."
That is enough for tonight. Headed to draft my coach pitch baseball team (6-8 yrs). Wish me luck!
Take care.(Sorry bout the formatting - its a Google thang)
And dig this, "Furthermore, we are now convinced that Goldman will join the government in facilitating the engineered market swoon with a bifurcated goal: while the Treasury will take advantage of a sell off to offload as many UST as it can in the rush for safety (which could backfire now that Gold is increasingly seen as a dollar alternative), Goldman (with or without Warren Buffett - it depends on what the actuarial tables say) will jettison its own stock price in order to go private in an increasingly hostile world."
After a brief discussion I had today with someone "in the know" (yes, I know those people), that person stated that last week we were "within hours of a global financial meltdown" and narrowly avoided a total disaster. We were "closer than ever before" and "the EU may be the first domino to fall". That sat as bad in my stomach as the cafeteria food I had eating with my kids at school today. I don't think it is any secret that we're in a world of hurt and it is only a matter of time before it all falls apart. We can't backstop the world can we?
On to the news -
Glad things are getting back to normal - Back To Normal: Insider Selling Outpaces Buying By 58 To 1 - "Notable dispositions included Bill Gates selling $85 million worth of MSFT, Roger Pensky dumping over $100 million, and Juniper Chairman Scott Kriens selling $12.5 million worth of JNPR stock."
Did someone mention a bad number? BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May? "However, unless the administration can pull a kangaroo out of a hat, those BLS seasonal distortions will fall on the hard rocks of reality, real jobs, by real people, as opposed to figments of imagination from some very imaginative people at the BLS." Trim Tabs takes 'em down.
"This could become very interesting, and not in a good way, either." - Bank Securitization Woes Only Beginning
Mike Farrell's "less than optimistic" outlook must see video - THE TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN PRUDENCE AND IMPRUDENCE
Washington has What Do Rising Sovereign Credit Default Swaps Mean? "Other commentators fear that the PIIGS' crisis has as much potential as a financial "contagion" as the subprime meltdown and the failure of Lehman." Plus a post from David Rosenberg is in here. I think the PIIGS are the key catalyst.
That is enough for tonight. Headed to draft my coach pitch baseball team (6-8 yrs). Wish me luck!
Take care.(Sorry bout the formatting - its a Google thang)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)