Most long time readers know that I basically crawl into a shell at earnings season till AAPL reports. I'm a trend dude, and I like the major indexes (obviously SPX and the E-mini) avoiding the individual equity action. It is not that I can't trade stocks (I sometimes do), it is that I prefer to focus or specialize on the broader markets.
Earnings season used to be a joyful time. Markets used to follow fairly predictable cycles, you know, the ones you learned in your economics textbooks years ago. Now post manipulation or post 2008 FASB/regulation elimination things have changed. Earnings are now a not so carefully correlated dance between the Fed, banks and government's wishes that represent the land of unicorns and fairy tales.
Pre-QE if a company cut guidance it was a big deal and the market reacted appropriately breaking out the big black paddle and taking it to the backside of price for said company. A good example of this is with Cummins today. In a non-QE environment there is no levity or trampoline effect that lifts all ships sinking or not.
Showing posts with label fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fed. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Morning Charts 07/10/12 $SPX $ES
MFG, PFG what's the difference? Well, we'll see just how well they are connected up the ladder. We all know Don Corzine was made of teflon. Will the same non stick coating apply to the PFG executives? If you have no idea what I'm talking about, there was another client fund issue yesterday, this time it was only $220 million that went missing (just a billion short of the last incident - Oh, and JPM is in the background once again). PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized
This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to 6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade
This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to 6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Afternoon Delight 11/09/11 - Game Plan - War?
For those that do not read the blog regularly and do not read the comments, you miss a majority of what I have to say and where my thoughts are more generally and liberally presented. I will try to summarize what I think the game plan is for the current situation.
As STB called from 1290 drop then pop and rise to set daily divergences then go poof. SPX cash came within 8 points of my targeted area yesterday. STB has been calling for a miserable November for some time now. So far so good on both accounts.
Now, STB has been on this larger call for some time - They need an event or market crash to allow for the debt ceiling vote to be more accommodating and to scare the markets into allowing one more massive stimulus. A move to 1040 should allow for that.
As STB called from 1290 drop then pop and rise to set daily divergences then go poof. SPX cash came within 8 points of my targeted area yesterday. STB has been calling for a miserable November for some time now. So far so good on both accounts.
Now, STB has been on this larger call for some time - They need an event or market crash to allow for the debt ceiling vote to be more accommodating and to scare the markets into allowing one more massive stimulus. A move to 1040 should allow for that.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Morning Post 09/20/11, SPX, AAPL
Well, Looks like my warnings Friday about the market 's reaction prior to the FOMC data tomorrow (it was dangerous to short even though Friday 's close was a very tempting set up) was spot on. How can you short into the Fed with their constant risk on positioning and eternal promise of QE? It is insanity.
All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.
If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.
All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.
If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.
Friday, September 16, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/16/11, SPX
It's Friday! Lawdy it has been one heck of a week for the bulltards. I have no idea if this opex, bailout, manipulated BS run is over or not. I do know that the domestic economy is worsening and that the EU (and MENA) are in shambles. All this will end in some sort of horrific scenario. Till then we operate on hopium and playing the game of extend and pretend.
STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).
Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.
FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.
STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).
Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.
FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Quiet Before The Storm?
Sorry for not posting last night or this morning, servers were down and internet access was a no go.
The Greece hot potato is being tossed around still, the ISM numbers were fictionally good, employment was fictionally good and the market closed flat.
Mish's thoughts on the ISM report and some factors surrounding it that you will not read elsewhere are in ISM Service Sector Expands, Backlog of Orders and Employment Still Contracting; Public Sector Catchup Coming. The thing I like most about what Mish is bringing to the table these days is his focus on the state and city level budget shortfalls. These will hit home more than the "national" bullshit you read about on a daily basis. In this post is a link to a recent speech given by the new NJ Governor Christie. Please take a moment to watch this. This guy is ready to kick some butt and take names to get his states budget shortfalls worked out and he does not care who gets pissed. It is the best thing I have heard in a long time. Denninger takes on the ISM BS in We're Schizoid! (Non-Manufacturing ISM). Both are not that impressed and poke unique holes in the report.
You market timers may find this one interesting (I finally went short today BTW) Has Goldman Called The Market Top: GS Sells $3.1 Million Leveraged Index-Linked Notes Referenced To 1123.7 On The S&P. Zero Hedge as usual is above the line on their reporting and timing of reports. This one is quite interesting. Maybe we can take advantage of a tip from the gods on high (and hope like hell it is not a sucker play).
Since everyone else has posted it, I'll complete the circle - No Wonder the Economy Isn't Improving from Washington's Blog is a wonderful post on the idiocy demonstrated by our leaders and an expose of the bullshit that flows endlessly from Washington (sounds like something I would like!).
TPC has this from Rosy - ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY. “In a secular bull market, a six-month trading range can be viewed as a pause that refreshes. But in a secular bear market, it more than likely reflects a classic topping formation, as was the case in the spring and summer of 2007 when the S&P 500 also flirted with the 1,500 mark for as long a period as it has hovered around the 1,100 threshold since last fall. Keep in mind that similar to 2007, we are starting to see some fraying around the edges in the latest set of economic data releases — jobless claims, housing starts and sales, core goods orders and shipments, construction, ISM and consumer confidence.” Put that with the GS report above and some of my fine analysis and I'd say you better be getting those horses saddled up.
In what I thought was the best new of the day, ZH has Philly Fed's Plosser Speaks: Too Big To Fail Must End, "I believe these three actions would go a long way toward improving financial stability. Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies." Damn, two tough and sensible speeches in the same week, what, did Washington run out of cool-aide?
Last, but not least, I bring you a radio interview from Bob Chapman that I thought was interesting. I like the way this guy thinks (extreme like me). This may be a bit conspiracy laced for some of you, but maybe it is time to buy into some of those theories. "They are preparing for a large world wide meeting of the kind of the Smithsonian meeting in the seventies and they will decide from there which currency to devalue against which ...The whole Toyota issue is the American government behind the scenes telling the Japanese either you buy my treasuries or I destroy your best exporting part of the industry.... The UK may break up from the European Union, Warren Buffett should be in jail not in CNBC says Bob Chapman , 10 years ago everybody knew that Greece and Italy were in bad shape but everybody looked at the other side ..."
For the latest on the Greece saga, you can always turn to this link at the FT.com.
Have a good evening.
The Greece hot potato is being tossed around still, the ISM numbers were fictionally good, employment was fictionally good and the market closed flat.
Mish's thoughts on the ISM report and some factors surrounding it that you will not read elsewhere are in ISM Service Sector Expands, Backlog of Orders and Employment Still Contracting; Public Sector Catchup Coming. The thing I like most about what Mish is bringing to the table these days is his focus on the state and city level budget shortfalls. These will hit home more than the "national" bullshit you read about on a daily basis. In this post is a link to a recent speech given by the new NJ Governor Christie. Please take a moment to watch this. This guy is ready to kick some butt and take names to get his states budget shortfalls worked out and he does not care who gets pissed. It is the best thing I have heard in a long time. Denninger takes on the ISM BS in We're Schizoid! (Non-Manufacturing ISM). Both are not that impressed and poke unique holes in the report.
You market timers may find this one interesting (I finally went short today BTW) Has Goldman Called The Market Top: GS Sells $3.1 Million Leveraged Index-Linked Notes Referenced To 1123.7 On The S&P. Zero Hedge as usual is above the line on their reporting and timing of reports. This one is quite interesting. Maybe we can take advantage of a tip from the gods on high (and hope like hell it is not a sucker play).
Since everyone else has posted it, I'll complete the circle - No Wonder the Economy Isn't Improving from Washington's Blog is a wonderful post on the idiocy demonstrated by our leaders and an expose of the bullshit that flows endlessly from Washington (sounds like something I would like!).
TPC has this from Rosy - ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY. “In a secular bull market, a six-month trading range can be viewed as a pause that refreshes. But in a secular bear market, it more than likely reflects a classic topping formation, as was the case in the spring and summer of 2007 when the S&P 500 also flirted with the 1,500 mark for as long a period as it has hovered around the 1,100 threshold since last fall. Keep in mind that similar to 2007, we are starting to see some fraying around the edges in the latest set of economic data releases — jobless claims, housing starts and sales, core goods orders and shipments, construction, ISM and consumer confidence.” Put that with the GS report above and some of my fine analysis and I'd say you better be getting those horses saddled up.
In what I thought was the best new of the day, ZH has Philly Fed's Plosser Speaks: Too Big To Fail Must End, "I believe these three actions would go a long way toward improving financial stability. Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies." Damn, two tough and sensible speeches in the same week, what, did Washington run out of cool-aide?
Last, but not least, I bring you a radio interview from Bob Chapman that I thought was interesting. I like the way this guy thinks (extreme like me). This may be a bit conspiracy laced for some of you, but maybe it is time to buy into some of those theories. "They are preparing for a large world wide meeting of the kind of the Smithsonian meeting in the seventies and they will decide from there which currency to devalue against which ...The whole Toyota issue is the American government behind the scenes telling the Japanese either you buy my treasuries or I destroy your best exporting part of the industry.... The UK may break up from the European Union, Warren Buffett should be in jail not in CNBC says Bob Chapman , 10 years ago everybody knew that Greece and Italy were in bad shape but everybody looked at the other side ..."
For the latest on the Greece saga, you can always turn to this link at the FT.com.
Have a good evening.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Wow, I'm Actually Making Money Now!
Good thing as I dropped off the property tax bill today. So what do we have newsworthy tonight that can add some fuel to this fire? Hmmm, should not be hard to find if you ask me. I think you'll get a good laugh somewhere in this post.
TD and Zero hedge will lead us off with Nic Lenoir's Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme? How bout this little factoid that will bring a smile to the premabears faces, "I saved the best for last: the LQD ETF which is basically a proxy for investment grade bonds which has been on a straight ramp up since October 08 seems to have broken its trend. Tha comes on the back of some observations over the last few weeks of some divergence between the CDS market which has made attempts to move wider while equities kept grinding up. This is by far the most important development. If the price action in the next 2/3 days confirms this break, then really it means the carry trade as a whole is starting to break down." As Cartman would say, sveeeeet!
Karl Denninger does the best job at ripping the preshredded fodder left over from the capitol hill grindings. Today he rips on Helicopter Ben in To Bernanke: It's Time To Stop Lying. "Or shall we talk about the "off-balance sheet" games, such as Wachovia's practice of writing CDS against their own tranches of OptionARMs as inducement to get people to buy them - a toxic brew that has now landed on Wells Fargo and remains undisclosed as to the exposure it presents to Wells from possible (or even probable) defaults! Wells has some $2 trillion of this off-balance sheet exposure and they're hardly alone in the (ab)use of these "QSPEs" - indeed, those are the same sort of vehicles that a really great energy-related company called ENRON was (ab)using to hide mounting losses that ultimately blew them sky-high." Note to Karl, stay away from the 5hr Energy man. You will blow. I can feel the angst being transmitted from your keyboard into mine and I don't need any more angst in my life right now.
OK, I'm not sure if this headline is a joke or not, Greenspan Calls Market Top Buahahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants! Thank you Naked Capitalism for my best laugh of the day. You mean the man with the troop of 1,000 economists (some salaried and some contracted) that all monitor this shit daily and missed the top in the first place, and YOU, yes you all by your little self, pull this out of your ass? You got to be freaking kiddin me? Uh, Mr. Greenspan, and your credibility to call this top would be? Yes? It would be?
Mish brings a rosy report from Rosenberg in Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state”. "“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there's no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said." Uh, ok, now that is not what I heard on CNBS or from the leading ML analyst that took your old job. David, have you not had your government mandated green shoot tea today? Please report to the infirmary at once.
The Pragmatic Capitalist comes thru with it's daily must read in MUST READ: THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FED SECRECY Sveeeet! You all know I love this shit.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
- Thomas Jefferson
(Note: support audit the Fed HERE.)
Bhuahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants again! Oooh, better go clean that up.
Have a great night. Bhuahahahaha. He called a top. OMG, that's funny as shit.
TD and Zero hedge will lead us off with Nic Lenoir's Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme? How bout this little factoid that will bring a smile to the premabears faces, "I saved the best for last: the LQD ETF which is basically a proxy for investment grade bonds which has been on a straight ramp up since October 08 seems to have broken its trend. Tha comes on the back of some observations over the last few weeks of some divergence between the CDS market which has made attempts to move wider while equities kept grinding up. This is by far the most important development. If the price action in the next 2/3 days confirms this break, then really it means the carry trade as a whole is starting to break down." As Cartman would say, sveeeeet!
Karl Denninger does the best job at ripping the preshredded fodder left over from the capitol hill grindings. Today he rips on Helicopter Ben in To Bernanke: It's Time To Stop Lying. "Or shall we talk about the "off-balance sheet" games, such as Wachovia's practice of writing CDS against their own tranches of OptionARMs as inducement to get people to buy them - a toxic brew that has now landed on Wells Fargo and remains undisclosed as to the exposure it presents to Wells from possible (or even probable) defaults! Wells has some $2 trillion of this off-balance sheet exposure and they're hardly alone in the (ab)use of these "QSPEs" - indeed, those are the same sort of vehicles that a really great energy-related company called ENRON was (ab)using to hide mounting losses that ultimately blew them sky-high." Note to Karl, stay away from the 5hr Energy man. You will blow. I can feel the angst being transmitted from your keyboard into mine and I don't need any more angst in my life right now.
OK, I'm not sure if this headline is a joke or not, Greenspan Calls Market Top Buahahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants! Thank you Naked Capitalism for my best laugh of the day. You mean the man with the troop of 1,000 economists (some salaried and some contracted) that all monitor this shit daily and missed the top in the first place, and YOU, yes you all by your little self, pull this out of your ass? You got to be freaking kiddin me? Uh, Mr. Greenspan, and your credibility to call this top would be? Yes? It would be?
Mish brings a rosy report from Rosenberg in Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state”. "“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there's no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said." Uh, ok, now that is not what I heard on CNBS or from the leading ML analyst that took your old job. David, have you not had your government mandated green shoot tea today? Please report to the infirmary at once.
The Pragmatic Capitalist comes thru with it's daily must read in MUST READ: THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FED SECRECY Sveeeet! You all know I love this shit.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
- Thomas Jefferson
(Note: support audit the Fed HERE.)
Bhuahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants again! Oooh, better go clean that up.
Have a great night. Bhuahahahaha. He called a top. OMG, that's funny as shit.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Hurricane Katrina - Revisited
Despite the markets actions the economic picture continues to paint a picture that looks like the Cat 5 hurricane is looming off shore. As each approaching band sweeps across the landscape another home is wiped out, another job is lost and all while the undertow slowly erodes what's left of the financial foundation of this country.
Sadly we did not have an early warning system set up for this catastrophe. Apparently all the buoys in the world could not see this storm coming. You see, the transponders had all been turned off allowing this storm to approach quietly, unsuspectingly. We all were punch drunk in the Fed's casino and at 4:35am when they shut down the credit window we were all SOL. We were not ready when the credit levies failed.
Then just as FEMA horribly mismanaged Katrina, the Fed, Treasury and current administration have screwed this recovery up as well. Instead of pulling the people from their flooded houses and getting them safe, they have taken all disaster relief to the TBTF's and left us to wade in the carnage, sewage and filth of crisis.
We have been left for dead while the city and the big businesses get saved first. We're stuck at the Super Dome and can't get out. All the bridges are out. There are no life lines and apparently communication to the government has been cut off. President Nagin (I mean Obama -sorry for that horrible unintentional reference) is more concerned about other things right now than helping the people of the country. The media coverage is focused on everything but the struggling individuals left to survive in more than adverse conditions. Pay no attention to the millions of unemployed swimming in the feces laden pool of debt that the TBTF's were allowed to create.
Recovery will be swift. We will rebuild. We have funds to get you back on your feet. Jobs will be created and all will be restored to normal. Meanwhile report to your local credit councilor and turn in your firearms. We're here to help.
Sadly we got screwed again. Only this time the country is being laid to waste and not just New Orleans. The levies are being rebuilt (bubble re inflation) and they will protect us from all future storms. Really, now? You will be able to return to your homes. Really, now? New Orleans will return to the once great city it once was. Really, now? Residents of New Orleans, your lives will return to normal soon.
Really, now?
Sadly we did not have an early warning system set up for this catastrophe. Apparently all the buoys in the world could not see this storm coming. You see, the transponders had all been turned off allowing this storm to approach quietly, unsuspectingly. We all were punch drunk in the Fed's casino and at 4:35am when they shut down the credit window we were all SOL. We were not ready when the credit levies failed.
Then just as FEMA horribly mismanaged Katrina, the Fed, Treasury and current administration have screwed this recovery up as well. Instead of pulling the people from their flooded houses and getting them safe, they have taken all disaster relief to the TBTF's and left us to wade in the carnage, sewage and filth of crisis.
We have been left for dead while the city and the big businesses get saved first. We're stuck at the Super Dome and can't get out. All the bridges are out. There are no life lines and apparently communication to the government has been cut off. President Nagin (I mean Obama -sorry for that horrible unintentional reference) is more concerned about other things right now than helping the people of the country. The media coverage is focused on everything but the struggling individuals left to survive in more than adverse conditions. Pay no attention to the millions of unemployed swimming in the feces laden pool of debt that the TBTF's were allowed to create.
Recovery will be swift. We will rebuild. We have funds to get you back on your feet. Jobs will be created and all will be restored to normal. Meanwhile report to your local credit councilor and turn in your firearms. We're here to help.
Sadly we got screwed again. Only this time the country is being laid to waste and not just New Orleans. The levies are being rebuilt (bubble re inflation) and they will protect us from all future storms. Really, now? You will be able to return to your homes. Really, now? New Orleans will return to the once great city it once was. Really, now? Residents of New Orleans, your lives will return to normal soon.
Really, now?
Monday, August 31, 2009
Calling all P3ers. Your Day Is Nearing. (T-Minus 42 Days to My Target)
Let's start with Impending Crash? from Denninger at The Market Ticker. In a simple post Karl makes some nice points without calling a top (emphasis mine). "Nobody - and I do mean nobody - is talking about what this sort of volume pattern means. Well, I will: this is the sort of pattern that precedes an all-on equity market collapse. It strongly implies that the only volume support that the market has is from "hot money" speculators. Lest you think this is sustainable let me point out that just a few weeks ago the very same so-called "commentators" said the same thing about China's market."
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Monday, August 17, 2009
So Is This How It Ends? (Part One)
No charts necessary. You all have seen the rising wedges all over the place. You all are familiar with the fact that SPX has had a 38% retracement. You all know the VIX broke the falling wedge this morning. You all know about the super high PE ratio of the market. You all know about the ridiculous commodity rally. You all know about the extreme economic conditions. The question is have the indices topped and is this fall finally here? It is hard to believe that it is not.
Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.
ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.
Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.
As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."
That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.
Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.
ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.
Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.
As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."
That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
"The Club" Has The Deck Stacked Against Any And Every Competitor
Happy Sunda morning. In this post, I'll just cover the Aces in the deck....
The Ace of Harts - ZeroHedge - CIT Prepares To File Bankruptcy - "The WSJ reporting that the lender to over 1 million small sized businesses has hired Skadden Arps in preparation of a bankruptcy filing. The formerly largest competitor to GE Capital for any and every semi- and fully-toxic loan imaginable, has been so far outright denied a bailout by an administration that has rarely professed a non-socialist approach to corporate demise." Ah, hem... 'formerly largest competitor to GE Capital'? Does this stench of the club allowing a competitor to be eliminated? Sounds like something Hitler would have done creating his master race. Hmmm? Maybe a master financial club or group is being whittled out of this mess. What do you think?
The Ace of Spades - The Market Ticker - Stupidity Bites HARD: Dodd and Frank. In another Denninger classic (they seem to come weekly now at an increasing frequency), Karl points out, "The same banks that lobbied hard to "reform" bankruptcy so you cannot file Chapter 7 any more when you go bankrupt and stick lenders with the bad lending decisions they made of their own free will. That is, your credit and financial life is ruined, but theirs (which should also be ruined) is not." Survival of the "to large to fail" is much more important that you, your brother, friend or anyone for that matter. Karl also points out, "And more importantly, the same banks that lobbied hard this spring to get an exemption from mark-to-market accounting for the "assets" they hold on their books - an exemption they were in fact using without having it, as I will shortly illustrate." These are just two selected quotes from a sensational article that will add another bur under your saddle.
Ace of Clubs - The Pragmatic Capitalist - MUST READ: THE REAL FORCE BEHIND THE EXPLOSION IN VOLUME AND VOLATILITY. TPC adds nicely those the front the blogs and ZH have been fighting against market manipulation . "Regular readers likely know that I am not always fast to cast judgment on potentially guilty parties, but as the evidence mounts it is quite obvious that something is horribly wrong and it begins with Wall Street’s most powerful firms." TPC, admirably, is a little more cautious and contemplative than most blogs before firing the guns of conspiracy or fraudulent actions. For TPC to be coming out of the closet, something must really reek.
Ace of Diamonds - ZeroHedge - The Federal Reserve Under Increasing Fire has a great video you should watch. You know that transparency issues had to be an ace in the deck. I picked the ZH post to link because of the vid that concisely tells most of the story, but you sould really go to the Campaign For Liberty site to dive more into this subject and other VERY important issues facing you and your nation.
As for all of the face cards in the deck, pick any of the following or add your own, media manipulation, mortgage meltdown, commodity price manipulation, any action of the fed, most any action of our government, GS and the other banksters, and on and on. They all form an elite group that is interconnected and stands beside each other like some form of mafia family. No one speaks out or betrays the "order".
It is getting more obvious by the day that the game is rigged. I believe the government will continue to hide the facts and do what they believe is in our best interests whether we like it or not. Think about that for a minute. They will do what they think is best for us? Wrong, they will do what is best for "them". The ones controlling the deck. We are inconsequential fleas on the ass of the elite. To them we mean NOTHING. Well, in reality, our well being should be their number one concern, for we are the rats under the hood that keep the engine going. It is about their survival and control of global power.
"We the people" have been warned continuously about the concentration of power and "we the people" have not done a damn thing about it. This is partly our fault, dumbed down by the boob tube and sucked into easy credit allowing us to gather plasma tv's for every room and and to amass piles of worthless immaterial shit that we had no business buying in the first place. We're a pathetically lazy nation that has overspent and consumed so much that we became bloated (with the help of the media, banksters, et all) and blind to the truth.
We're waking up now and coming to our senses, but we've laid all our chips on the table and all we have in the hole is a 7 and a 2. We're all in with a crappy hand and they have a rigged deck. Better hope the flop delivers a pair and all low cards and the river brings a 7 or a 2. If not, you know what happens.
The Ace of Harts - ZeroHedge - CIT Prepares To File Bankruptcy - "The WSJ reporting that the lender to over 1 million small sized businesses has hired Skadden Arps in preparation of a bankruptcy filing. The formerly largest competitor to GE Capital for any and every semi- and fully-toxic loan imaginable, has been so far outright denied a bailout by an administration that has rarely professed a non-socialist approach to corporate demise." Ah, hem... 'formerly largest competitor to GE Capital'? Does this stench of the club allowing a competitor to be eliminated? Sounds like something Hitler would have done creating his master race. Hmmm? Maybe a master financial club or group is being whittled out of this mess. What do you think?
The Ace of Spades - The Market Ticker - Stupidity Bites HARD: Dodd and Frank. In another Denninger classic (they seem to come weekly now at an increasing frequency), Karl points out, "The same banks that lobbied hard to "reform" bankruptcy so you cannot file Chapter 7 any more when you go bankrupt and stick lenders with the bad lending decisions they made of their own free will. That is, your credit and financial life is ruined, but theirs (which should also be ruined) is not." Survival of the "to large to fail" is much more important that you, your brother, friend or anyone for that matter. Karl also points out, "And more importantly, the same banks that lobbied hard this spring to get an exemption from mark-to-market accounting for the "assets" they hold on their books - an exemption they were in fact using without having it, as I will shortly illustrate." These are just two selected quotes from a sensational article that will add another bur under your saddle.
Ace of Clubs - The Pragmatic Capitalist - MUST READ: THE REAL FORCE BEHIND THE EXPLOSION IN VOLUME AND VOLATILITY. TPC adds nicely those the front the blogs and ZH have been fighting against market manipulation . "Regular readers likely know that I am not always fast to cast judgment on potentially guilty parties, but as the evidence mounts it is quite obvious that something is horribly wrong and it begins with Wall Street’s most powerful firms." TPC, admirably, is a little more cautious and contemplative than most blogs before firing the guns of conspiracy or fraudulent actions. For TPC to be coming out of the closet, something must really reek.
Ace of Diamonds - ZeroHedge - The Federal Reserve Under Increasing Fire has a great video you should watch. You know that transparency issues had to be an ace in the deck. I picked the ZH post to link because of the vid that concisely tells most of the story, but you sould really go to the Campaign For Liberty site to dive more into this subject and other VERY important issues facing you and your nation.
As for all of the face cards in the deck, pick any of the following or add your own, media manipulation, mortgage meltdown, commodity price manipulation, any action of the fed, most any action of our government, GS and the other banksters, and on and on. They all form an elite group that is interconnected and stands beside each other like some form of mafia family. No one speaks out or betrays the "order".
It is getting more obvious by the day that the game is rigged. I believe the government will continue to hide the facts and do what they believe is in our best interests whether we like it or not. Think about that for a minute. They will do what they think is best for us? Wrong, they will do what is best for "them". The ones controlling the deck. We are inconsequential fleas on the ass of the elite. To them we mean NOTHING. Well, in reality, our well being should be their number one concern, for we are the rats under the hood that keep the engine going. It is about their survival and control of global power.
"We the people" have been warned continuously about the concentration of power and "we the people" have not done a damn thing about it. This is partly our fault, dumbed down by the boob tube and sucked into easy credit allowing us to gather plasma tv's for every room and and to amass piles of worthless immaterial shit that we had no business buying in the first place. We're a pathetically lazy nation that has overspent and consumed so much that we became bloated (with the help of the media, banksters, et all) and blind to the truth.
We're waking up now and coming to our senses, but we've laid all our chips on the table and all we have in the hole is a 7 and a 2. We're all in with a crappy hand and they have a rigged deck. Better hope the flop delivers a pair and all low cards and the river brings a 7 or a 2. If not, you know what happens.
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