Despite the markets actions the economic picture continues to paint a picture that looks like the Cat 5 hurricane is looming off shore. As each approaching band sweeps across the landscape another home is wiped out, another job is lost and all while the undertow slowly erodes what's left of the financial foundation of this country.
Sadly we did not have an early warning system set up for this catastrophe. Apparently all the buoys in the world could not see this storm coming. You see, the transponders had all been turned off allowing this storm to approach quietly, unsuspectingly. We all were punch drunk in the Fed's casino and at 4:35am when they shut down the credit window we were all SOL. We were not ready when the credit levies failed.
Then just as FEMA horribly mismanaged Katrina, the Fed, Treasury and current administration have screwed this recovery up as well. Instead of pulling the people from their flooded houses and getting them safe, they have taken all disaster relief to the TBTF's and left us to wade in the carnage, sewage and filth of crisis.
We have been left for dead while the city and the big businesses get saved first. We're stuck at the Super Dome and can't get out. All the bridges are out. There are no life lines and apparently communication to the government has been cut off. President Nagin (I mean Obama -sorry for that horrible unintentional reference) is more concerned about other things right now than helping the people of the country. The media coverage is focused on everything but the struggling individuals left to survive in more than adverse conditions. Pay no attention to the millions of unemployed swimming in the feces laden pool of debt that the TBTF's were allowed to create.
Recovery will be swift. We will rebuild. We have funds to get you back on your feet. Jobs will be created and all will be restored to normal. Meanwhile report to your local credit councilor and turn in your firearms. We're here to help.
Sadly we got screwed again. Only this time the country is being laid to waste and not just New Orleans. The levies are being rebuilt (bubble re inflation) and they will protect us from all future storms. Really, now? You will be able to return to your homes. Really, now? New Orleans will return to the once great city it once was. Really, now? Residents of New Orleans, your lives will return to normal soon.
Really, now?
Showing posts with label treasury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label treasury. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Monday, August 31, 2009
Calling all P3ers. Your Day Is Nearing. (T-Minus 42 Days to My Target)
Let's start with Impending Crash? from Denninger at The Market Ticker. In a simple post Karl makes some nice points without calling a top (emphasis mine). "Nobody - and I do mean nobody - is talking about what this sort of volume pattern means. Well, I will: this is the sort of pattern that precedes an all-on equity market collapse. It strongly implies that the only volume support that the market has is from "hot money" speculators. Lest you think this is sustainable let me point out that just a few weeks ago the very same so-called "commentators" said the same thing about China's market."
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Monday, August 17, 2009
So Is This How It Ends? (Part One)
No charts necessary. You all have seen the rising wedges all over the place. You all are familiar with the fact that SPX has had a 38% retracement. You all know the VIX broke the falling wedge this morning. You all know about the super high PE ratio of the market. You all know about the ridiculous commodity rally. You all know about the extreme economic conditions. The question is have the indices topped and is this fall finally here? It is hard to believe that it is not.
Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.
ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.
Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.
As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."
That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.
Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.
ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.
Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.
As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."
That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.
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