Morning Charts 12/09/13 SPX /ES

Let's keep this simple again today - 

First, they are still talking taper.

Second, Today's Only Event That Matters is the double $5bn POMO.

Third, I suggest you pay attention to Futures Fail To Levitate Overnight On Repeated Central-Planning Failures Around The Globe. 


It looks like they are in full Merry Christmas mode right now, but they are sailing in very troubled waters. I'm still looking down and think the markets are in trouble, but that does not mean they are finished with setting tops. It's a massive struggle for both sides here. Bout the only thing you can count on is that team manipulation still has the upper hand.

Minis 30m -Closing in on the Xmas low volume window but we still got the FOMC meeting to go which should keep some fear over the markets as taper talk continues. Have no fear till you get confirmation cause the pomo days are still upon us and they don't want to spoil the Xmas season for the elite. Minis have resistance from 1809 to 1812. We'll worry about support (what little there is) if needed below.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays. 

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 02/01/12 - Ragin At The Machine

Ragin at the machine can get old and tends to wear on you after time (both reading and writing). The emotional swings one goes thru watching your country, future and everything around you permanently relying on intervention to save the day all the while waiting while knowing total implosion is one default away. Remarkable times we live in. Have no fear, STB will won't stop ragin till ACTA or SOPA pull the plug (that is here at least).

The crony capitalist system is in full control, printing when they need it, controlling the government to remove what little roadblock regulations (Dodd/Frank a tragic waste of time) are remaining and the MSM to sell whatever angle needs to be transmitted to the sheeple.

Here is the full control example - For those of you that don't quite "get it", lets start with this video explaining the dire circumstanced that lie behind the Greek /default/bail out deal. Jim does a fantastic job explaining why the system can't fail till it does. Breaking News Ellis Martin Report with Jim Sinclair - YouTube (h/t lurker Susan)

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/26/12 #SPX

I think I have a FOMC hangover. Like I got absolutely pummeled yesterday on hopium and am waking up today wondering what the hell happened while I was passed out. It was a normal day and then the Fed spiked my cocktail. Then this euphoric nightmare happened. The Fed spoke of ZIRP to eternity and conditions that warranted serious monitoring, but thru all the warnings and awful news this angel appeared. I thought it funny she had a pitchfork, horns and a tail, that's meaningless. She brought 'accommodative policy' with her and all of a sudden the skies turned bright, Wall St. rejoiced and all fears of market weakness were immediately erased.

When I finally came to, I realized this was not a hallucination or a dream. It is the new reality. A centrally planned crony capitalist cleptocracy now rules the globe. Nothing matters anymore other than maintaining the markets lofty levels while the wealth transfer from the poor to ultra rich accelerates. Whether right, wrong or indifferent it does not matter.

I've explained this for years now and you have to listen and believe. All that stands between the government/Fed/crony system and the public going totally ape is the illusion that the stock market is healthy and your wealth (what's left of it) is just fine, growing and safe. A failure of the stock market leads to the failure of everything at this point. From the complete pension system to what little privately held wealth is left, they are hanging on by any means possible at this time, cause when the markets go, so does everything else.

I am still taken back by their audacity and the fact that this is actually happening to America. The special interest controlled congress has effectively deregulated everything and the horses are out in the pastures running wild. While we live in a society with ever increasing controls and laws, the crony capitalists represent a Teflon Don (Corzine) that can do what they want without fear of any repercussions. Whatever it takes no matter the cost to keep the system going is the only rule for them now.

Afternoon Delight 01/25/12 - The Beginning of the End

The Feds announcement today and the stock market's reaction to it signaled to me that reality truly no longer exists. Fair, random walk, DOW theory - you can throw it all out the window. For those that have not been on the manipulation train for the past two years and do not believe in such things, I have a feeling that you will not  awaken from your slumber till it is far too late.

What the non-believers see is a rising market and an economy that is "recovering" on most "data" points. What non-believers don't see is reality and that the Fed told them today that all is not well. With the Fed seeing "exceptionally low rates thru 2014" does not sound all that promising does it? "Housing remains depressed" is not good. The Fed reiterating "Significant downside risks" does not sound so hot either. What does ring loudly in the ears of the bulltards is "Fed expects to maintain a 'highly accommodative' monetary policy" and that is all that matters.

The flow of "funds" or "QE" or whatever fiat forces that make it from the Fed to the markets that lift and give the illusion all is well in the markets has blinded (intentionally) the bulltards. The fact that the Fed is monetizing debt at an exponential rate to keep the banks open and the system alive means nothing to the non-believers. They believe that the recovery is real which is the farthest possible position from reality. But the bulltards keep making money and with every tick higher they become more bold in their belief all is well. This is just what "they" want, welcome to the trap.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/24/12 #SPX

Isn't this nice to wake up to : Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge

"RED ALERT TO EVERYBODY INTERESTED IN THE ESM: THERE IS NO CURRENT VERSION OF THE ESM TREATY AVAILABLE!!!

Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening.

But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later?

Media reports from last midnight only said that the ESM treaty was agreed on by EU finance ministers and mentioned January 30 as the date when the treaty will be officially signed."

Of course the markets do not care about such things as liberty and freedom, those are purely secondary items to the big grab and perpetual printing. This will most likely be another banksta/elite/central planning favored treaty that further en debts the sheeple to serve the system (dent slaves) that favors the richest of the rich and their henchmen.

Afternoon Delight 01/23/12 - It Is A Long Way Downnnnnnn

What can I say, emotions are thru the roof. It has been some time since the rhetoric across the financial blogs has been this testy. It is even bleeding over to the MSM (who are learning that the web is the best source of real information). Call it consensus disbelief.

It actually may be worse now than anytime in the past as even more have bought their tickets and are on the HFT/QE manipulation train. Even more are on the "we're all gonna die anyway so why are we bailing out everyone so what does it matter anyway" story, so why the rampage?

Those situations make my blogging a bit easier as I have been on the manipulation train and preaching it for years. Some thought I was nuts (some - the lost - still do). The sheeple and even some major players are coming around and beginning to voice their disbelief which is quite the change of events.

Open Weekend Post 01/21-22/12 (SPX)

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. Nice week for lurkers this week as several came out of the closet and did very well on the board. Remember the only rule I have and that is to respects others at all times.

We managed to survive the week. Emotions are wound tighter than they have been in quite some time. Of course this is well deserved. Everyone is in disbelief and quite possibly the central planners pushed the envelope a bit far this time. Why is the big question? My thought is that they are trying their damnedest to suck the sheeple funds in for one last mega scalp (wealth transfer) so they can exit as flush as possible.

Morning Post 01/19/12 (SPX)

You gotta separate what's real from what's false and then place your bets on what's not real. That is the sad reality of investing today. Want proof? Let's look at two reports on BAC from this morning and see what the MSM, Wall St. and the central planners want you to hear and see and then lets look at what's really behind those stellar earnings.

The MSM, all is well, nothing to worry about, throw your money in the pot so you can retire rich and we can make massive fees off of you while you actually go poor view - From CNBC, Bank of America Rebounds to Post Profit; Shares Surge - US Business News - CNBC, "Bank of America matched profit expectations and exceeded revenue estimates for quarterly earnings, sending shares that had been trading below $5 just a month ago spiking higher in premarket trading." and add, "In particular, BofA said it made $2 billion in the fourth quarter by selling its stake in a Chinese bank and selling debt. That offset losses and higher legal expenses in its mortgage business."

Afternoon Delight 01/18/12 - Levitation

For those looking to know exactly what's going on with the market please see my morning post from today. It is as comprehensive as you will find anywhere. We're nearing a major top. To all the bears out there, as I have preached from the beginning of the year, patience is required.

Following the Fed is the only plan and like a scratched record (for those of you old enough to know what one of those is) I keep repeating the FOMC Meeting Chart. Price today (for whatever reason) tagged the upper resistance diagonal and has met the price objective I thought would be "it". Price actually touched the side of my target circle I drew a few weeks back.

I have no idea what is driving the markets up at this point other than IMF or ECB lending and the hopes that the Greek default will come off without a hitch. I do know that something is not right. One of the theories is (in true bubble fashion) is that the funds rapidly leaving the EU are flowing into our stock market. On the other hand mutual funds are having a net outflow. Could it be unannounced stealth QE? The Fed did say they would use all "tools" at their disposal. Could it be the promise of more QE announced at the FOMC meeting next month? Who knows?

Morning Post 01/18/12 (SPX)

Let's not mince words this morning and make this really simple - we're all fucked and if you don't know that and don't start preparing for the worst case scenario that's your fault. Quit listening to the lame stream media that wants you to buy into the hopium story. Good example - Liesman on CNBS this morning simply asking the question, "Do you believe the market will rise 30% on a Romney election?" Quit listening to the broker dealers and their advisers that count on you for generating fees to support their excessive undeserved salaries. It is all a bunch of shit.

Got that? You better. Tale it from the, "World Bank urges developing economies to “prepare for the worst” as it sees risk for European turmoil to turn into global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008". World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe Is In Recession, Warns Developing Economies To "Prepare For The Worst" | ZeroHedge. Did you read the AD last night? If not go back and read the opening section.

It is all about stimulus and how much money can be thrown at the problem. Folks, realize that we have been throwing money at this problem since 2008 and have done nothing to fix any of the issues. It is the banksters and Wall St. against you and me. The fraud and raping of the middle class wealth funneling everything to the financial institutions creating a new phenomena called debt serfdom. Quick note on the presidential candidates, Ron Paul is the only one that will stop this.

Let's do a full chart review like we did last week -

Daily SPX - Resistance diagonal (black) at resistance area (pink) with weakening underlying indicators.

Afternoon Delight 01/17/12 - Strange Days

Strange Days indeed! So Standard and Poors downgrades basically all of the EU (and then the banks get follow up downgrades) and the markets go up? Citi misses by a mile and the markets barely flinch? Look, I don't get it, but there is one thing that  matters to the centrally planed markets driven by hopium, the eternal promise of more easing that comes with each FOMC meeting. That's right, every bit of bad news is received with cheers and market pops these days as they only increase the chance of more easing in the future. That's it, easing (Quantitative Easing to be exact), stimulus, a cash injection to the system that causes markets to mysteriously rise to heights usually seen in a bubble not a depression recession recovery.

What's going on that's so great the DOW runs up 60 points today? It must be that we're over the debt ceiling again, out of money and for a second time our government is having to "borrow" from the retirees pension plan to keep the doors open. Treasury Resumes Pillaging Retirement Accounts To Fund Deficit Spending Until Debt Ceiling Raised | ZeroHedge.

Morning Post 01/13/12 (SPX)

Welcome to the Friday the 13th edition of the morning post. That alone should make for an interesting day, but when you throw in the minis taking out support and a JPM revenue miss, things quickly become more superstitious. Can you think of a better day to start a major slide in the markets? Remember, Monday is a holiday.

STB has been patiently waiting for the minis support to crack. Since first showing you the channel back in December and the FOMC meeting chart, we've been walking this puppy up one centrally planned stair at a time. The news is not good out there on many fronts, but that had all been subdued for the most part. It was only a matter of time before something caught up with the low volume quiet news grace period that beganthe year.

Afternoon Delight 1/10/11 - Postapalooza!

Because of yesterday's debt rant (Total Despair), I got a little behind on the AD links. Today you get AD extreme. I'll try to keep commentary limited. Enjoy!

Market News - 

STB has liked 1040 as an SPX target since the June top. I always appreciate others looking in that direction (and if the Fed would just get out of the way). The Cost Of Recoupling: 235 S&P Points | ZeroHedge, looking at 1050 fair value based on the EUR/USD.

Intervention? Nah, no country would just print money and dump it on the markets just to prop things up to make things look better than they really are, that's silly. Well, is it really? Bank Lending, M2 Money Supply Soar in China; Premier Wen Jiabao calls for "Measures to Boost Confidence in Stock Market"; US vs. China Money Supply - Who is Printing More? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Afternoon Delight 01/10/12 - Total Despair

What is not surreal these days? I report on varying topics nightly that are mind blowing in the sense that they can't be happening but do every day. I'm not talking about bungee cords busting or Beyonce's baby. I'm talking about things like insolvent banks running the worlds governments. Out of control governments printing and spending money like there is no problem with that. The Fed and Treasury in cahoots with Wall St. and the government to rig the equity markets to give the illusion all is well. The US government (or any for that matter) intentionally distorting economic data to give the impression that we're recovering from the recession. The US becoming a massive police state where breaking wind will be a fineable offence and they will have the detection equipment on every street corner and your DNA to prove you did it. Heck that is only in the US and I'm not going into global events.

Welcome to a centrally planned state where you no longer have any control. What is really freaking me out is that we'll most likely have Mitt as the next president. What is surreal?  The  fact that Obummer is even being considered as a candidate who has raised more money than anyone else (think about that for a minute) when Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama's Reelection. The fact that Mitt is a carbon copy of Obummer scares me the most. They all are carbon copies of each other (except Ron Paul which is why he's so scary - Oooooo). Plug-n-Play presidents that will do whatever the establishment wants when they hit the oval office is all this group of candidates are (Note: nothing related to the presidency here gets capitalized anymore). Nothing but lipstick on a new pig.

We are so, so, so screwed - 

Morning Post 01/10/12 (SPX)

A STB PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: 

You must love Central Planning. It is the best for all of us. Just embrace it and let the love flow. CP is and has always been our destiny. Did you think you would be allowed to govern yourselves forever? Did you think you were capable of doing anything productively without the central planners being in control? Seriously sheeple, you can not be left to be responsible for anything on your own. You must have a great hand to guide you. One that makes decisions for the whole and not the individual. Being an individual is soooo 1776. Please submit yourself (and your gold and guns) to your local sheriff's office this morning and embrace the future. Don't fight it. If your neighbor does not comply, please call the hotline number provided and we'll gladly address that issue.

This ends today's announcement. All praise the Central Planners!
________________________________________________________________

Well, it appears risk on hit overnight on low volume while everyone was sleeping (like that is anything new?). Apparently some CP data manipulation out of Big Red (China) has the futures all in a tizzy. Some sort of trade surplus growth crap that is meant to fool those that still believe any numbers coming from any government.

Morning Post 01/09/12, SPX

Well two things are on deck today. First and most importantly is the Merkozy meeting that is happening right now. As most traders know these can be volatile market movers (usually due to RAMPant rumors from the FT or some other "source" leaked 10 minutes before the meeting has ended that usually end up being nothing bust a rumor).  Second is that earnings season starts today with AA leading the way. You can find a handy earnings calendar here. Next week will be huge with the financials reporting. You can expect some wild action coming soon.

If there is one thing that I believe you can look at that is a barometer of safety in the world is where is everyone holding their cash. Think about this for a second (cause all your money is in a bank). If banks are not keeping their money in their own vaults and have moved it to their central banks, then is there something very wrong with the system. Is there some sort of massive risk out there that we are not being warned about? See, "the ECB Deposit Facility usage soared to a new all time high of €464 billion, an increase of €199 billion" from EUR Rebounds From Multi Year Lows On Merkozy Meeting, Short Covering; ECB Deposits Soar To Record | ZeroHedge.

Looking at the minis this morning in a 4hr chart - First notice the 1280 level is strong resistance. Second, notice the low volume. Third, see the weakening MACD, RSI and S Sto indicators. Fourth, the nontraditional channel (yellow) I pointed out last week where the support held price up. Did the blue wedge break support and a fall is coming here or can they push it thru 1280 resistance and keep the channel intact? I think the wedge is busted. (Of course a MerKozy meeting surprise rumor can spoil the bears plans at any second.)

Morning Post 01/06/11, SPX

OK, so things are not adding up. Should the Lemmings be running in or is it that all the Lemmings have leaped off the cliff? "Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends." U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year - Bloomberg

Who or what is left comprising the markets these days is quite the mystery. We know the MF Global clients are out, but their money is still in (somewhere - no one seems to be able to find a billion dollars of "lost" investor funds). We know that there are trillions of QE dollars still out there. I really have no clue who or what outside of the Central Planning cabal's tentacles is in or out of this market.

Afternoon Delight 01/05/12 - Total Control

Well, if you are confused, don't be. I know the feeling. The problem is that you are not in touch with reality. Reality check! Reality check! You must remember that you are now living in a centrally planned environment where nothing happens without some sort of hall pass from the Fed, Treasury or Obummer. It is a lot like living in China or the USSR, you just did not see the changes as they happened quietly and conspicuously over the past few years.

My how times have changed. Dump all regulation, change the accounting rules, crank up the printers and remove the 4th, 5th and 6th amendments from the Constitution and POOF we now live in a brave new world. When did all this happen Shanky, I missed it? Well, you were not looking and I can't rehash all of that, but if you google NDAA that will be a great place to start, or you can read America's Socialism Tsunami | Conservative Outpost.

Morning Post 01/05/12, SPX

Well, we thought the markets would be down on credit issues out of the EU this morning and they were, till government sponsored ADP report came out blaring some BS 325k jobs surprise. You gotta do what you gotta do to protect those revenues don't cha ADP? This farce will end horrifically when the truth is finally revealed (but living in a socialist state built on lies and deception you can't count on that happening anytime soon).

The take on ADP report from ZeroHedge, "Oh, and proving the "validity" of the data is that the number was about 8 standard deviations above consensus - aka statistical noise." That can be compared with other recent data points that have been statistically off the charts meaning to STB, they are more desperate now than ever to manufacture deceive hide conceal promote the truth that this economic recovery ain't happenin.

Afternoon Delight 01/04/12 - Obummer

The market news was really slow and market action even slower today. I guess after all the Iowa hoopla last night the only good news (not for Obummer) I could find to report today was mostly political. Congrats to my man Ron Paul for hanging in there proving he's a real contender that needs to be taken seriously no matter how or where they counted the votes.

One thing that is for sure is that this will set up to be a really strange year regardless of the Mayan Calendar or not. The election in November will top the charts most of the year. A market crash or two will happen. Record deficit spending will keep us all distracted from the real problems of the day. A few countries will default on their debt. Heck, that will all be routine stuff, for the really interesting things take a look at No Mayan Apocalypse in 2012 … But There’s Alot of Other Interesting Stuff Happening from Washington's Blog (whom STB thanks for its recent inclusion in the blogroll).

Market News -