Know what - I got to thinking (I must be hitting rock bottom), why not just put all our effort and energy behind getting Obummer reelected? Why, simple, if we need a total collapse and reset of the system I can't think of anyone that would get us there on a faster course. All the others would find some way to instill hope (God I hate that word now) for another year or two before the inevitable comes anyway. Let's just get this over with. The sooner the better.
On the other hand if he does not get reelected it will clearly be a racial event. It will be because he's black (well whatever ratio of black he is - not sure how that falls into consideration) and this nation will explode with racial tension. They have the ultimate puppet as POTUS. Divide and conquer is their MO and either way they will continue to drive a massive wedge down the center of this country to maintain their power base. Either way, trouble is coming in a big way.
Showing posts with label greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label greece. Show all posts
Monday, March 5, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Afternoon Delight 02/07/12 -
Money, it makes the world go round. that saying rings louder now more than any other point in time. That is so because the amounts of money needed just to keep the debt bubble inflated and countries from default is exponentially growing day by day. The top of the post I cover the markets, but I ask that you terrorists (yes, you by definition) spend some time in the police state section tonight.
First watch this -
First watch this -
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Afternoon Delight 11/08/11 - Asteroid Edition
All I can say is that it is a good thing NASA does not hire FRB economists to do their math for them. Let's hope and pray this group at NASA is the only government group we can count on to do reliable math. Once decimal off on this one and it would be catastrophic. Look up in the sky. It is a bird, no it's plane, no it's Bernanke, no it is a really big rock on a near collision course with earth. I have to ask the question - What if they are lying about this as well?
"Fortunately for us, NASA predicts the murderous cosmic body will miss our planet by about 202,000 miles, passing around 6:28 p.m. on Tuesday. That's about 0.85 times the distance to the moon, NASA says. The last time an asteroid this size came this close to Earth was in 1976, and it shouldn't happen again until 2028 -- provided we're still here." Massive, unstoppable rock hurtles toward Earth - WTOP.com.
Market News - Ramp on!
"Fortunately for us, NASA predicts the murderous cosmic body will miss our planet by about 202,000 miles, passing around 6:28 p.m. on Tuesday. That's about 0.85 times the distance to the moon, NASA says. The last time an asteroid this size came this close to Earth was in 1976, and it shouldn't happen again until 2028 -- provided we're still here." Massive, unstoppable rock hurtles toward Earth - WTOP.com.
Market News - Ramp on!
Friday, September 16, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/16/11, SPX
It's Friday! Lawdy it has been one heck of a week for the bulltards. I have no idea if this opex, bailout, manipulated BS run is over or not. I do know that the domestic economy is worsening and that the EU (and MENA) are in shambles. All this will end in some sort of horrific scenario. Till then we operate on hopium and playing the game of extend and pretend.
STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).
Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.
FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.
STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).
Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.
FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/14/11
I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.
I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.
I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/13/11
Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.
The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!
I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.
I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.
Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.
Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).
The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!
I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.
I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.
Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.
Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Every Day Is One Step Closer To The End
Long, slow, painful (yet titillating at the same time if you are into that kind of thing) march to the end. The set up is right in front of your face. Banks hoarding cash and not lending. They know the breadth and depth of the problems. They are now enacting rules and legislation to guard against runs on the banks. Do you really think if things were getting better they would be enacting such policies?
Infowars.com did a nice piece on Citibank Controversy Puts Dubious FDIC Guarantee Back In The Spotlight that covers the issues facing the banks and FDIC limits. "Alarmingly, The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. only has about $50 billion to “insure” about $1 trillion in assets across the nation’s financial institutions. This was even admitted in a Yahoo.com article shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. When Americans realize the fact that banks are “going to run out of money”, the article nonchalantly stated, a run on the banks will accelerate." Do not forget the FDIC is basically bankrupt (and the banks are refusing to come off of cash even to fund their obligations with them).
From the same post - ready for this? Want to be scared shitless? “The requirement is part of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933. It applies to all accounts classified as Negotiable Order of Withdrawal [NOW] accounts – basically interest-bearing checking and savings accounts held by individuals and non-profits. Banks are not required to hold reserves in place to cover NOW accounts, so the rule prevents a run on withdrawals for which there are no reserves,” states the report." (emphasis mine) Nice! I feel a lot better. Thanks Congress. Thanks a bunch! Uh, isn't that ass friggin backwards? Apparently not.
That is mostly right. A run on the banks from the citizens would be a big deal, but remember Dubai and that nasty thing called fractal lending that has caused this credit driven fuck up. They are not worried about you or me getting the funds. They are worried about Dubai demanding their $10 billion in deposits (fractal that). They are worried about sovereign runs on the banks. It will get ugly cause they don't have the money.
As always Mish does a nice job with the unemployment report. He has a unique way of bringing the worts ot of it almost every time. In Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike To 496,000; Will Reality Soon Set In? "At some point however, reality will eventually set in. Without jobs, all this happy talk about the impending recovery, and all of Bernanke's yapping about low rates, will not satisfy the market. It is going to take both jobs and an increase in consumer spending to lift the economy. From where I sit, neither is coming."
Your daily Greece update comes courtesy of Zero Hedge in Greece Deterioration Hits Nitrous: IMF, EU, ECB Find Greek Plan €4.8 Billion Short. You can only squeeze so much blood out of the turnip. This is it. This is what I see spreading globally. this is the main point of denial. Massive wage deflation and everyone is held captive to the banksters that we bailed out that caused this mess. What a friggin job that must be, huh?
Well the NYT has Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide. Well? You don't think they KNEW this was coming did you? Nah, GS did not sell them (and numerous other countries) the systemic CDO's that caused their financial system to rot from the inside, all while knowing they would and having handsome bets on the other side. Friggin amazing stuff. Who needs regulations? ZH gave a nice graphic in Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus of their sexy looking bond spreads today.
Infowars.com did a nice piece on Citibank Controversy Puts Dubious FDIC Guarantee Back In The Spotlight that covers the issues facing the banks and FDIC limits. "Alarmingly, The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. only has about $50 billion to “insure” about $1 trillion in assets across the nation’s financial institutions. This was even admitted in a Yahoo.com article shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. When Americans realize the fact that banks are “going to run out of money”, the article nonchalantly stated, a run on the banks will accelerate." Do not forget the FDIC is basically bankrupt (and the banks are refusing to come off of cash even to fund their obligations with them).
From the same post - ready for this? Want to be scared shitless? “The requirement is part of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933. It applies to all accounts classified as Negotiable Order of Withdrawal [NOW] accounts – basically interest-bearing checking and savings accounts held by individuals and non-profits. Banks are not required to hold reserves in place to cover NOW accounts, so the rule prevents a run on withdrawals for which there are no reserves,” states the report." (emphasis mine) Nice! I feel a lot better. Thanks Congress. Thanks a bunch! Uh, isn't that ass friggin backwards? Apparently not.
That is mostly right. A run on the banks from the citizens would be a big deal, but remember Dubai and that nasty thing called fractal lending that has caused this credit driven fuck up. They are not worried about you or me getting the funds. They are worried about Dubai demanding their $10 billion in deposits (fractal that). They are worried about sovereign runs on the banks. It will get ugly cause they don't have the money.
As always Mish does a nice job with the unemployment report. He has a unique way of bringing the worts ot of it almost every time. In Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike To 496,000; Will Reality Soon Set In? "At some point however, reality will eventually set in. Without jobs, all this happy talk about the impending recovery, and all of Bernanke's yapping about low rates, will not satisfy the market. It is going to take both jobs and an increase in consumer spending to lift the economy. From where I sit, neither is coming."
Your daily Greece update comes courtesy of Zero Hedge in Greece Deterioration Hits Nitrous: IMF, EU, ECB Find Greek Plan €4.8 Billion Short. You can only squeeze so much blood out of the turnip. This is it. This is what I see spreading globally. this is the main point of denial. Massive wage deflation and everyone is held captive to the banksters that we bailed out that caused this mess. What a friggin job that must be, huh?
Well the NYT has Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide. Well? You don't think they KNEW this was coming did you? Nah, GS did not sell them (and numerous other countries) the systemic CDO's that caused their financial system to rot from the inside, all while knowing they would and having handsome bets on the other side. Friggin amazing stuff. Who needs regulations? ZH gave a nice graphic in Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus of their sexy looking bond spreads today.
Late yesterday Denninger put out Clap-Clap (Weil and The Mark-To-Market Scam) which covers the mark-to-myth scandal I do not cover enough (In plain terms the reason the banks are all actually insolvent). The Enron style accounting has led us to this, "We've done nothing other than making legal accounting lies. The impairment and thus the actual economic loss still exists, and while we may have pushed it off another year that actually makes it worse, because these non-accruing loans gather more and more hair on them the longer they sit around without being either foreclosed, put back, or otherwise disposed of. This part of The Bezzle is one of the worst examples in this entire sordid mess and if Congress won't grow a pair then FASB needs to - right now." I keep telling you we're really screwed. Like really deep shit.
On the issue of lack of regulation Washington's blog has Economist With Financial Services Committee For Eleven Years, Assisting With Oversight of the Fed, Lends Support to Ron Paul's Questions "Today, Ron Paul accused the Federal Reserve of having a hand in nefarious plots such as Watergate and arming Saddam Hussein. House Financial Services Committee Chair Barney Frank said that the Committee should look into it." We really need to audit the Fed before it is to late. Heck, I'm not sure I want to even do it now. Scared of what we might find. Talk about Armageddon?
We're getting closer every day. Sure more QE may be coming but what good will it really do? Kick the can down the road another 6 month to a year and just dig an even deeper hole while stuffing the banksters balance sheets with more of your future tax dollars. Friggin GREAT! Sign me up! TWICE! I hope you all realize I am not blowing smoke here. Every night I bring you real world situations that should scare you to death. Massive deflation is coming to a street near you. Greece should be your model. I just hope like hell we come out of this a free nation.
This is AWESOME - Max at 7:00 - paints a really clear picture. the whole world will hate us when this is all over.
This is AWESOME - Max at 7:00 - paints a really clear picture. the whole world will hate us when this is all over.
GL and have a good evening!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Shit + Fan = Huge Mess
It is always nice to be able to see the train coming and not have to suffer a blind side crash. In this case that light at the end of the tunnel (no, don't go towards it) is the global financial default coming on the express route to a country near you.
I suggest you watch Mob Madness - Greece on YouTube to get a glimpse of one reporter's views and opinions of the troubles they face and the building anarchy on the streets there. This country is being ripped apart from core. They are so far in debt that even if bailed out they could not pay that off. This is what the EU knows. This is why they have not spent a penny on solving the problem. Finally, the situation may be clear to the lords of finance. The monster of debt created by the beast of cheap credit, corruption and extremely loose global liquidity can not be fed anymore. We are out of food and have one hungry monster (the banks) that want to be fed.
Here is a glimpse of why our nation is enacting the unthinkable limits on demand deposits (see Citigroup can limit demand deposit withdrawals and money funds can too). You see. it is not such A Wonderful Life. We have taken the red pill and are stuck on a bad trip to Pottersville. The big bad bankers have looted all your money and now the sumbitches don't want to give it back in the form of credit or in the form of cash. In a rare glimpse of what will (not may) be coming our way in the near future is Greeks Scramble To Pull Out €8 Billion From Local Banks As Greece Responds With Money Control Measures. "This represents over a quarter of the money held by private banks in the country. This also represents about €400 billion in total money leaving the system courtesy of fractional reserve banking and the money multiplier. Yet the worst news for Greeks: money controls are coming". If you need to read that two or three times to get it to sink in go ahead.
How can I so boldly say this is coming our way? Cause we are now in full debt monetization mode. In ZH's Charting The Indrect Bidder Hit Ratio After Today's 100% Result, And Anticipating A Surge In Brand New SFP Issuance you get, "This SFP news is relevant because today's Indirect Hit Ratio demonstrates that the "sales" of $195 billion in new SFP bills will merely go to Primary Dealers and whoever the increasingly less mysterious Direct Bidder is, as Indirects phase out all Bill interest altogether." Monetization of debt. We are printing money to support out debt payments. Whooo Whooo - hear that train whistle. It is calling. It is empty now. All the passengers got off. We are the only ones buying our debt now. How long till the big money grab starts and countries (well, China already is) start cashing out? Uh, folks, the system was not designed nor ever intended to experience a cashing out. That is where global default comes into play. Anyone care to take a peek at the National Debt Clock?
It wont be long till the PIIGS all start falling apart (really every debtor nation globally). They will all topple one by one from the overload of debt created by zero regulation and a corrupt and greedy banking system. It is surreal cause you are able to see it all happening in slow motion in real time. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Denial is the state that most of us are living in. This can't be happening. This is not real. It can not happen here. Sorry folks, it is real and that train is coming. It is big, heavy and at this point futile to try and stop. It will rip its way across the globe causing all sorts of devastation and destruction. Not until that train is derailed will we have any sort of recovery.
Maybe we are not in denial. If the Consumer Confidence Survey is accurate at all maybe we are waking up. Mish does a nice job with Consumer Confidence Plunges To 46, Lowest Since April; Current Conditions Lowest Since 1983 "Housing has stalled with another leg down coming, jobs are pathetic, taxes are headed higher, and debt levels are unsustainably high. Pray tell what is there for consumers to be optimistic about?" (What is really funny is at the beginning of all this mess in 2007 I used to read Mish and get depressed. Glad I don't have to read my own stuff LOL.) And from Rasmussen Reports 73% Agree That Washington Is “Broken” and Obama's approval rating is .... -19. That is really, really bad for the man from HOPE and CHANGE.
Wake up people. Get involved. Force the issues. We need massive amounts of regulation first and foremost. Then all you will be able to do is hang on till that train has done all the damage. We'll come out of the rubble and rebuild. What America will look like will be anyone's guess? We'll be OK in the long run as we always are, but some really tough times are ahead. Whooo Whooo.
Take care.
I suggest you watch Mob Madness - Greece on YouTube to get a glimpse of one reporter's views and opinions of the troubles they face and the building anarchy on the streets there. This country is being ripped apart from core. They are so far in debt that even if bailed out they could not pay that off. This is what the EU knows. This is why they have not spent a penny on solving the problem. Finally, the situation may be clear to the lords of finance. The monster of debt created by the beast of cheap credit, corruption and extremely loose global liquidity can not be fed anymore. We are out of food and have one hungry monster (the banks) that want to be fed.
Here is a glimpse of why our nation is enacting the unthinkable limits on demand deposits (see Citigroup can limit demand deposit withdrawals and money funds can too). You see. it is not such A Wonderful Life. We have taken the red pill and are stuck on a bad trip to Pottersville. The big bad bankers have looted all your money and now the sumbitches don't want to give it back in the form of credit or in the form of cash. In a rare glimpse of what will (not may) be coming our way in the near future is Greeks Scramble To Pull Out €8 Billion From Local Banks As Greece Responds With Money Control Measures. "This represents over a quarter of the money held by private banks in the country. This also represents about €400 billion in total money leaving the system courtesy of fractional reserve banking and the money multiplier. Yet the worst news for Greeks: money controls are coming". If you need to read that two or three times to get it to sink in go ahead.
How can I so boldly say this is coming our way? Cause we are now in full debt monetization mode. In ZH's Charting The Indrect Bidder Hit Ratio After Today's 100% Result, And Anticipating A Surge In Brand New SFP Issuance you get, "This SFP news is relevant because today's Indirect Hit Ratio demonstrates that the "sales" of $195 billion in new SFP bills will merely go to Primary Dealers and whoever the increasingly less mysterious Direct Bidder is, as Indirects phase out all Bill interest altogether." Monetization of debt. We are printing money to support out debt payments. Whooo Whooo - hear that train whistle. It is calling. It is empty now. All the passengers got off. We are the only ones buying our debt now. How long till the big money grab starts and countries (well, China already is) start cashing out? Uh, folks, the system was not designed nor ever intended to experience a cashing out. That is where global default comes into play. Anyone care to take a peek at the National Debt Clock?
It wont be long till the PIIGS all start falling apart (really every debtor nation globally). They will all topple one by one from the overload of debt created by zero regulation and a corrupt and greedy banking system. It is surreal cause you are able to see it all happening in slow motion in real time. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Denial is the state that most of us are living in. This can't be happening. This is not real. It can not happen here. Sorry folks, it is real and that train is coming. It is big, heavy and at this point futile to try and stop. It will rip its way across the globe causing all sorts of devastation and destruction. Not until that train is derailed will we have any sort of recovery.
Maybe we are not in denial. If the Consumer Confidence Survey is accurate at all maybe we are waking up. Mish does a nice job with Consumer Confidence Plunges To 46, Lowest Since April; Current Conditions Lowest Since 1983 "Housing has stalled with another leg down coming, jobs are pathetic, taxes are headed higher, and debt levels are unsustainably high. Pray tell what is there for consumers to be optimistic about?" (What is really funny is at the beginning of all this mess in 2007 I used to read Mish and get depressed. Glad I don't have to read my own stuff LOL.) And from Rasmussen Reports 73% Agree That Washington Is “Broken” and Obama's approval rating is .... -19. That is really, really bad for the man from HOPE and CHANGE.
Wake up people. Get involved. Force the issues. We need massive amounts of regulation first and foremost. Then all you will be able to do is hang on till that train has done all the damage. We'll come out of the rubble and rebuild. What America will look like will be anyone's guess? We'll be OK in the long run as we always are, but some really tough times are ahead. Whooo Whooo.
Take care.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Confusion Reigns
I'm not sure which way is up anymore. As global turmoil and confusion reigns down on all of us, you have to wonder how they will wiggle their way out of this mess and find some reason to pump the markets full of eternal optimism that the reflation trade will work, the recession is over and all is well. You knew we'd be the ones on the white horse to save the day with the Greece issue (American taxpayer via the IMF). I guess we'll be financing the other PIIGS in the months to come. All is well. You should be superoverallocated in equities. Have no fear the great backstop is here.
Looking behind the curtain you will notice that our 30 year auctions are not doing so hot. Even Santelli said it failed although you would not know this by looking at the numbers. It all sold right? Not so fast my friend. In Putting Today's Record 30 Year Direct Take Down In Perspective ZH points out that, "Today, we saw a record explosion in the Direct take down for the longest bond purchasable. Just who are the Direct bidders? Whose orders are they executing? Are these merely a proxy for China or the Fed? What happens when that "mysterious" demand disappears? Nobody knows. Which is why Rick Santelli called this a failed auction." Funding our own debt is like a drug dealer dipping into his own stash. This is not a good combination, especially when the rate of the take down is increasing. Monetization is bad. Denninger echoes the sentiment in 30 Year Auction: A Solid "F".
Mish brings the swift changes to corporate bond yields to the table in Corporate Bond Yields Offer Hint Party Is Over. "I do not think that treasury yields break to the upside. However, they could. And if they do alongside corporate bond yields, there is a distinct possibility, and one that I have pointed out before, that there may be no places to hide in 2010 other than perhaps the much despised US dollar." You see they held rates artificially low as long as they could to make the market the only game in town. When the mass exit from the bond market commences, look out below. (I will take this moment to warn you about the possibilities of what I see as the many dangers in the muni markets as well.)
Denninger continues harping on the MTM issues for a good reason in Whistling Past The Graveyard We Be....., no one is listening or seems to care that assets held on balance sheets are marked to the most bogus amounts they can imagine. You would know why this is legal (cause the O allows it) if you read Yes, America is Still in an Official State of Emergency from my post the other night. Karl has, "Even companies that are allegedly "Strong" and have "No material exposure" are doing tricky things - witness CISCO's recent disclosure that it is funding customer financing at below-market interest rates (zero!) with off-balance sheet vehicles." This is the first I heard of CISCO's fiasco and am quite pleased to hear the sham has spread beyond the financials.
Ed Harrison with Credit Writedowns has penned Chandler: Uncertainty and contagion at work with Greece. Ed comes at the crisis from a good angle allowing you to see the full contagion that exists no matter how you try to fix the issue. "Now, if you were a Greek resident, you have to feel a bit panicky about the safety of your hard-earned savings given this scenario (see Guardian article). So, we could easily see the sovereign debt crisis spill over into bank runs. And if Greek banks implode, there is going to be a knock-on effect for other weak bankingsectors
like the Austrian or Irish. This is how contagion works." The maggots will consume the body from inside out and you will not see the damage till it is to late.
Investor psychology has been rapidly gaining ground as a scientific way to predict market moves. We are predictable and like to herd. ZH has a lengthly read on this subject that is well worth the read. In Just How Ugly Is The Sovereign Default Truth? How Self Delusions Prevent Recognition Of Reality you get "At that point the financial oligarchy will very much wish the Methadone had been administered sooner (roughly about March 2009, when we first suggested it). It will however be far too late, and the decades of self delusion will finally end." It is truly only a matter of time.
Sorry for missing this mornings post.
GL out there and have a great evening.
Looking behind the curtain you will notice that our 30 year auctions are not doing so hot. Even Santelli said it failed although you would not know this by looking at the numbers. It all sold right? Not so fast my friend. In Putting Today's Record 30 Year Direct Take Down In Perspective ZH points out that, "Today, we saw a record explosion in the Direct take down for the longest bond purchasable. Just who are the Direct bidders? Whose orders are they executing? Are these merely a proxy for China or the Fed? What happens when that "mysterious" demand disappears? Nobody knows. Which is why Rick Santelli called this a failed auction." Funding our own debt is like a drug dealer dipping into his own stash. This is not a good combination, especially when the rate of the take down is increasing. Monetization is bad. Denninger echoes the sentiment in 30 Year Auction: A Solid "F".
Mish brings the swift changes to corporate bond yields to the table in Corporate Bond Yields Offer Hint Party Is Over. "I do not think that treasury yields break to the upside. However, they could. And if they do alongside corporate bond yields, there is a distinct possibility, and one that I have pointed out before, that there may be no places to hide in 2010 other than perhaps the much despised US dollar." You see they held rates artificially low as long as they could to make the market the only game in town. When the mass exit from the bond market commences, look out below. (I will take this moment to warn you about the possibilities of what I see as the many dangers in the muni markets as well.)
Denninger continues harping on the MTM issues for a good reason in Whistling Past The Graveyard We Be....., no one is listening or seems to care that assets held on balance sheets are marked to the most bogus amounts they can imagine. You would know why this is legal (cause the O allows it) if you read Yes, America is Still in an Official State of Emergency from my post the other night. Karl has, "Even companies that are allegedly "Strong" and have "No material exposure" are doing tricky things - witness CISCO's recent disclosure that it is funding customer financing at below-market interest rates (zero!) with off-balance sheet vehicles." This is the first I heard of CISCO's fiasco and am quite pleased to hear the sham has spread beyond the financials.
Ed Harrison with Credit Writedowns has penned Chandler: Uncertainty and contagion at work with Greece. Ed comes at the crisis from a good angle allowing you to see the full contagion that exists no matter how you try to fix the issue. "Now, if you were a Greek resident, you have to feel a bit panicky about the safety of your hard-earned savings given this scenario (see Guardian article). So, we could easily see the sovereign debt crisis spill over into bank runs. And if Greek banks implode, there is going to be a knock-on effect for other weak banking
Investor psychology has been rapidly gaining ground as a scientific way to predict market moves. We are predictable and like to herd. ZH has a lengthly read on this subject that is well worth the read. In Just How Ugly Is The Sovereign Default Truth? How Self Delusions Prevent Recognition Of Reality you get "At that point the financial oligarchy will very much wish the Methadone had been administered sooner (roughly about March 2009, when we first suggested it). It will however be far too late, and the decades of self delusion will finally end." It is truly only a matter of time.
Sorry for missing this mornings post.
GL out there and have a great evening.
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