Sunday Guest Post - Incarnate and the 13/34, RUT, TNA, TZA

STB has entrusted a guest post to Incadamus for the first time - Let's hope this works out. STB 3.0 is slated to allow used generated content. Let's look at this as a trial run.

Welcome to Incarnate's world!

I have been wondering what timeframe I should use for my 401k.  I can only buy or sell at whatever the market closes at, like many others.  Also, there are those that would like to not babysit the market and come up with a good strategy to enter/exit trades.

So I thought to myself, hmm.. let’s try the 60 minute 13/34 EMA cross and see what would have happened from 1/1 – 9/9 of this year (damn charts kept moving so I picked that day as my cutoff for no particular reason).

I had two main questions:

1.       Is the decay on the leveraged ETFs really that bad??  Will I lose money if I buy and hang on?

2.       Is the 60m chart really the answer? 

As many on here know, I trade the 15m 13/34 EMA and have recently even switched to the 10m to try to capitalize even more gains.  I have had huge success for both even faced with the occasional whipsaw.  My original plan was to track a 15 minute chart back to the first of the year, but guess what?  Stockcharts.com does not hold the information back that far.  I think it was 30 days for the 15 minute chart and 20 for the 10 minute chart.  Also I came to learn that you can only add so many annotations to a chart and cannot add more than six total charts on one page, thus the two charts for each quarter.

I will say this about the prices on the stockcharts..  I estimated where it crossed as I did not have the time (trust me it took long enough as it was) to open a single day chart and see exactly where it would cross.  I got the spotting tool (crosshairs) to see where it crossed.  It is not exact, but very close.

STB Morning Post 09/13/11

Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.

The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!

I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.

I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.

Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.

Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).