Most long time readers know that I basically crawl into a shell at earnings season till AAPL reports. I'm a trend dude, and I like the major indexes (obviously SPX and the E-mini) avoiding the individual equity action. It is not that I can't trade stocks (I sometimes do), it is that I prefer to focus or specialize on the broader markets.
Earnings season used to be a joyful time. Markets used to follow fairly predictable cycles, you know, the ones you learned in your economics textbooks years ago. Now post manipulation or post 2008 FASB/regulation elimination things have changed. Earnings are now a not so carefully correlated dance between the Fed, banks and government's wishes that represent the land of unicorns and fairy tales.
Pre-QE if a company cut guidance it was a big deal and the market reacted appropriately breaking out the big black paddle and taking it to the backside of price for said company. A good example of this is with Cummins today. In a non-QE environment there is no levity or trampoline effect that lifts all ships sinking or not.
Showing posts with label fraud. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fraud. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Morning Charts 07/10/12 $SPX $ES
MFG, PFG what's the difference? Well, we'll see just how well they are connected up the ladder. We all know Don Corzine was made of teflon. Will the same non stick coating apply to the PFG executives? If you have no idea what I'm talking about, there was another client fund issue yesterday, this time it was only $220 million that went missing (just a billion short of the last incident - Oh, and JPM is in the background once again). PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized
This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to 6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade
This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to 6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Afternoon Delight 03/28/12 - Your Retirement Funds Will Be Confiscated Eventually
How or when this global financial destruction all ends is anyone's guess. The spending supporting the dead global Ponzi is out of control and without CTRL+P and all the shenanigans of 2008 and 09 the system would have imploded long ago and we'd probably be on the road to recovery now. That would not have worked or served the globalists too well as the wrong president was in place and the police state was not fully set up to function.
The system is going to implode and you need to know and be sure of that. It is just a question of how long they can keep it afloat. Below is just one of the scenarios that I like to think will play out in the next year or so. If you have any interest in your retirement plan being confiscated by the government I suggest you read on.
"The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency." National Debt has increased more under Obama than under Bush - Political Hotsheet - CBS News. See the chart in the post. Pictures can assist in allowing your mind's eye to wrap around an issue better than words sometimes. This debt is only going to expand and rapidly as the recent budget submissions indicate, they plan on cutting nothing.
If you have never seen the U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time check it out. My favorite figure in the chart is not the debt in the top left corner, but the $118 Trillion in UNFUNDED US Debt at the bottom of the page. Did you catch that? Wrap your head around the $118 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
The system is going to implode and you need to know and be sure of that. It is just a question of how long they can keep it afloat. Below is just one of the scenarios that I like to think will play out in the next year or so. If you have any interest in your retirement plan being confiscated by the government I suggest you read on.
"The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency." National Debt has increased more under Obama than under Bush - Political Hotsheet - CBS News. See the chart in the post. Pictures can assist in allowing your mind's eye to wrap around an issue better than words sometimes. This debt is only going to expand and rapidly as the recent budget submissions indicate, they plan on cutting nothing.
If you have never seen the U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time check it out. My favorite figure in the chart is not the debt in the top left corner, but the $118 Trillion in UNFUNDED US Debt at the bottom of the page. Did you catch that? Wrap your head around the $118 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Morning Post 09/21/11, SPX
F Day, as in FOMC Fed announcement. Let's hope the F does not stand for anything else as in Fing the people of this country even further than they have already been F'd. Around 2:15 the fireworks start.
Shanky nailed the call last Friday warning those that wanted to short over the weekend at what looked like a beautiful set up. You can not short mere days before a FOMC announcement. Today is the day we get clarity. Now will be the time we'll be able to invest with at least a bit more confidence in a sustained trend (say the next week which is about as sustained as anything gets in this market).
What do the readers of STB think the Fed will do today? Will the Fed ease was the question. (Thanks for participating in the poll.)
Yes - 10 (12%)
No - 33 (42%)
Does it really matter - 34 (44%)
Shanky thinks the Fed can't ease till the debt ceiling issues are cleared up. This moves the November meeting to a higher probability. This has been my call since the spring and I'm sticking with it. Where STB's language has changed a bit is now the Fed can move from the "ability" to ease to the "promise" to ease at anytime. A year ago all it took was a promise in August to ramp the markets for free (or without any easing) till the November announcement.
Shanky nailed the call last Friday warning those that wanted to short over the weekend at what looked like a beautiful set up. You can not short mere days before a FOMC announcement. Today is the day we get clarity. Now will be the time we'll be able to invest with at least a bit more confidence in a sustained trend (say the next week which is about as sustained as anything gets in this market).
What do the readers of STB think the Fed will do today? Will the Fed ease was the question. (Thanks for participating in the poll.)
Yes - 10 (12%)
No - 33 (42%)
Does it really matter - 34 (44%)
Shanky thinks the Fed can't ease till the debt ceiling issues are cleared up. This moves the November meeting to a higher probability. This has been my call since the spring and I'm sticking with it. Where STB's language has changed a bit is now the Fed can move from the "ability" to ease to the "promise" to ease at anytime. A year ago all it took was a promise in August to ramp the markets for free (or without any easing) till the November announcement.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Afternoon Delight 09/20/110, SPX, NFLX
OK, the news since 6:00 last night has been nothing but dreadful. Most all of it was covered in the comments section today. The DOW had absolutely no reason being up over 100 points other than on hopes of easing (and a little HFT spice).
Not gonna rehash the market's whacky day. Bottom line is price reversed at the April 2010 top forming a pretty double top with nice divergence - a classic and powerful turn signal. Now, the fed tomorrow can blow all of this up, but at this time it appears that TA has predicted the "sell the news" event STB and commenters were proposing earlier in the comments.
Hope you liked the updated 1m /es futures charts today. They really allow us to track support and resistance levels nicely.
SPX 30m - Pretty double top with divergences. That 13/34 ain't working so hot in this consolidation phase. Not sure anything is other than TA at this point which has missed a few news driven turns as well. So, follow the news LOL.
Not gonna rehash the market's whacky day. Bottom line is price reversed at the April 2010 top forming a pretty double top with nice divergence - a classic and powerful turn signal. Now, the fed tomorrow can blow all of this up, but at this time it appears that TA has predicted the "sell the news" event STB and commenters were proposing earlier in the comments.
Hope you liked the updated 1m /es futures charts today. They really allow us to track support and resistance levels nicely.
SPX 30m - Pretty double top with divergences. That 13/34 ain't working so hot in this consolidation phase. Not sure anything is other than TA at this point which has missed a few news driven turns as well. So, follow the news LOL.
Morning Post 09/20/11, SPX, AAPL
Well, Looks like my warnings Friday about the market 's reaction prior to the FOMC data tomorrow (it was dangerous to short even though Friday 's close was a very tempting set up) was spot on. How can you short into the Fed with their constant risk on positioning and eternal promise of QE? It is insanity.
All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.
If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.
All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.
If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Sunday Evening Post
OK, here is the deal with the comments being closed on Friday's post - in order to avoid late spam (after the fact, many days after a post is up, some less desirable individuals will sneak in and post unscrupulous links that I/we do not desire), I have the comments set to "close" after 48 hours. I set that a bit tight and have moved that to three days to accommodate the weekend post.
I should be around a bit tonight as I update some charts ( I have done a bunch already) and check the futures.
SPX and the FOMC Meeting chart -
I should be around a bit tonight as I update some charts ( I have done a bunch already) and check the futures.
SPX and the FOMC Meeting chart -
Thursday, September 15, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/15/11 SPX
Not much to say this morning without rehashing the obvious, Europe in in deep trouble, America is in deep trouble and the financial system supporting it all is in even worse trouble. AS STB began to point to a few months back around the first Debt Ceiling debate in July, I believe the financial masters of the universe are finally seeing the light and may actually be tired of throwing good (well what's left of good) money after bad just to save the banks.
STB speculated that until the US debt ceiling is raised significantly and the Fed enters QE land again the euro zone would be on its own. Well, they have proven that without stealth funding from sugar daddy Bernanke they are capable of .... nothing. They can't fix the issues alone. China or the Swiss pop in for a EUR stick save every now and then, but bottom line is the EU is screwed. No, this is not Germany's fault. the former Wiemar state is proving that at least one country on this planet may have actually learned from its mistakes in the past and is not willing to repeat them.
STB speculated that until the US debt ceiling is raised significantly and the Fed enters QE land again the euro zone would be on its own. Well, they have proven that without stealth funding from sugar daddy Bernanke they are capable of .... nothing. They can't fix the issues alone. China or the Swiss pop in for a EUR stick save every now and then, but bottom line is the EU is screwed. No, this is not Germany's fault. the former Wiemar state is proving that at least one country on this planet may have actually learned from its mistakes in the past and is not willing to repeat them.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/14/11
I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.
I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.
I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
STB Morning Post 09/13/11
Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.
The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!
I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.
I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.
Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.
Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).
The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!
I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.
I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.
Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.
Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).
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