Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/25/12 #SPX #Gold

On January 04, 2012 I gave you this -

"FOMC Schedule - You all know that I love and preach following the Fed. This FOMC Meeting chart has been a wonderful tool for STB. I have used it combined with TA to make some pretty fine calls (if I may say) for some time now. At this moment it appears that a move to upper resistance (blue) at the FOMC meeting on Jan 24-25 would be a likely call and something traders should keep an eye on." Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post 01/04/12, SPX

FOMC Meeting Schedule - Of the 13 instances on this chart where markets have been rising into FOMC meetings going back to June of '11 where price is rising to the meeting only once has it failed.

Here is the same chart today with the only change having added the upper thin blue diagonal (which must admit did not thing was in the equation) and having moved the blue arrow up.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/23/12 #SPX

Well, we have arrived. The week STB has been pointing to for almost a month now. We've made it thru the early earnings and opex, now it is time to get the FOMC meeting, AAPL and the Greek PSI out of the way so the markets can do what they need to, correct or worse.

Minis /es 30m - As I have been noting, yellow rising channel (bullish) is trying to give way to the green rising wedge (bearish) as the markets try to roll over. STB has been spot on with these diagonals all month. That upper heavy red diagonal is resistance off the 1370 top. Pay close attention to that point (1322) if it should get close to it. I see no reason to get excited about anything till the lower green wedge support diagonal falters. Another thing is that diagonal needs to fail with flair in my opinion. The bears need a decisive point that marks the turn. As mentioned last week, the form of the fall, does it have substance, will be very important.  

Morning Post 09/21/11, SPX

F Day, as in FOMC Fed announcement. Let's hope the F does not stand for anything else as in Fing the people of this country even further than they have already been F'd. Around 2:15 the fireworks start.

Shanky nailed the call last Friday warning those that wanted to short over the weekend at what looked like a beautiful set up. You can not short mere days before a FOMC announcement. Today is the day we get clarity. Now will be the time we'll be able to invest with at least a bit more confidence in a sustained trend (say the next week which is about as sustained as anything gets in this market).

What do the readers of STB think the Fed will do today? Will the Fed ease was the question. (Thanks for participating in the poll.)

Yes - 10 (12%)
No  - 33 (42%)
Does it really matter - 34 (44%)

Shanky thinks the Fed can't ease till the debt ceiling issues are cleared up. This moves the November meeting to a higher probability. This has been my call since the spring and I'm sticking with it. Where STB's language has changed a bit is now the Fed can move from the "ability" to ease to the "promise" to ease at anytime. A year ago all it took was a promise in August to ramp the markets for free (or without any easing) till the November announcement.