Friday, September 16, 2011

STB Morning Post 09/16/11, SPX

It's Friday! Lawdy it has been one heck of a week for the bulltards. I have no idea if this opex, bailout, manipulated BS run is over or not. I do know that the domestic economy is worsening and that the EU (and MENA) are in shambles. All this will end in some sort of horrific scenario. Till then we operate on hopium and playing the game of extend and pretend.

STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).

Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.

FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.

SPX 30m - MACD and TRIX about to bear cross following divergences.

SPX Daily - RSI14 at the 50 line is a key I have used for years. It is stuck there now. If that can get thru, I think you'll see a run to the 70 line at least as this chart cycles. The SPXA50 (S&P 500 stocks above their 50dma) is still very oversold and may want to run to the 350 level (or red trend diagonal) before the next turn. This is all speculative, but what feels right now. So, any turn here would be only a corrective.

Minis - Refer to this chart when I comment on the minis position during the day.

Have a great weekend. GL and GB.

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