News Time!

Gotta be a quickie tonight - I am coaching coach pitch baseball (this will be the last year I think) and have to get to practice.

Mish has Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012, an incredibly detailed post that will have you feeling less better after you read it (or better if you are a perma bear like me).

As we watch the EU implode, Mish pulled this one Italy a Bigger Threat to EU than Greece; Italian Derivatives Draw Scrutiny; Mundell Wants Cap on Euro Gains; Academic Wonderland he notes the conundrum facing each nation these days, "It is impossible for everyone to get what they want: a weaker currency vs. everyone else hoping to stimulate exports."


Since I brought up Wonderland, just what has been happening behind the curtains over there? ZH has The Chairman Of Goldman Sachs Bank, And Former FRBNY President, Says Many European Countries Used Comparable Debt-Hiding Swap Transactions     

TPC has THE ONE CHART THAT SCARES RICHARD RUSSELL most of us are salivation over TBT and where it may go one day. They are scared, I'm looking forward to it. USB (30yr) is set to bust one sooner than later. 


Several blogs covered this one, but WB's conspiracy tint is the best I think -McCain: Paulson and Bernanke Promised that the $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program Would Focus on the Housing Meltdown

Ritholtz has Policy Errors Dog Treasury Secretary "Ignore that misleading headline — the article itself is not so much about the anger over the bailouts, but instead details the policy decisions and political choices Geithner made as Treasury Secretary. The litany is not pretty." That it is not. I found this one quite humerus.

Enjoy! See you in the am.

Banging On The AIG Deal

Want to read an interesting take that may give you some insight into the AIG scam/bailout? Try AIG: Collusion Of Epic Proportions Between Goldman's US Treasury Branch And Goldman Sachs Proper I thought is was a good read. It actually made me sick to my stomach. If what GS pulled off was that savvy, we are truly screwed and the inmates are running the asylum. 


Follow that up with Oh, So The Fed *DID* Hide Documents? from Denninger. "Additionally, Barofsky said he is reviewing the cooperation of the Federal Reserve with his staff's attempt to conduct an audit of the AIG transactions. Some of the documents recently turned over to the Oversight panel "were not provided to the SIGTARP audit team during the course of the audit."" Uh...do you really think they will ever truly turn over everything? What rose colored glasses scenario do you think will happen with this fiasco? All documents will be turned over, every phone call documented, a complete accounting for all cash involved and sworn testimonies from all involved will just appear? I don't think so. When you rip someone off for $18bn plus and have set up the play for years and you have the government in you back pocket, Naaaah, I don't think this ends in any satisfactory manner for anyone other than GS. 


Then you throw Timmahh into the mix (I think he gets thrown under the buss). Questions Geithner Cannot Escape compliments the two posts above and ties it all together. I suggest you read them all and have a hefty bad near your chair in case the overwhelming desire to puke your guts out occurs. Will you be angry. I sure as hell hope so. I guess it is a matter of national security that we need to commit fraud and conceal evidence and lie to cover up how much money was stolen from the taxpayers on Obama's watch. That's right, I said it. This all happened on Obama's watch. Oops, was that a racist statement? that will be the claim du jour in a year or two. Be ready for it. (Hell, is Barry even eligible to be president? Was that the biggest part of the heist? Think about it?)

The best video of the day is AIG Spbpoena from CNBS. This morning Senator Jim Bunning just railed the system. I loved it. This may help with some of your anger management issues after reading all of the above. 

Prag Cap brings you Cry Wolf Part 4 - ooops - I mean ROBERT PRECHTER: THE MARKET IS ENTERING THE NEXT BEAR PHASE. Hey, maybe the 4th time is the charm. RP totally chickens out on giving a projection when we all know he could have given a window based on his principles very easily. Me thinks he's been stung one to many times this past year. My thoughts on EWT, it has it's moments of brilliance, but not when Hotchberg is counting. Stick with Kenny or Daneric, they do it for free and run circles around the guys making millions (friggin ass backwards like everything else in this country). Lord I hope they are right this time. Me - I have not called a top yet. I want to this time more than any other. I'll be patient, trade it like the top is in and let form confirm the top. The other thing about EWT that is 100% certain - they will always get the count right AFTER the fact!


If you need a return to econ 101 and want the most creative and entertaining history lesson ever please see Hayek vs. Keynes - Straight Outta Compton from Zero Hedge. It is a classic. 


GL out there. It is so comforting to know that our government, the treasury, the fed and the banksters have everything under control and we can trust them implicitly with or future. I'll sleep well tonight!

Around The Rim (And Down The Hole)

Busy earnings day and AAPL hits it out of the park. We don't own a mac yet, but we can't get off of iTunes. With the kids getting iTouches for Xmas, maybe the 1,000 songs/apps they have purchased since 12/25 put AAPL over the top (or my account under the bus?) Apple earnings jump on strong iPhone sales. The action of AAPL has been volatile with a surge to 208 and subsequent pullback to 200.


Looking into earnings some disturbing trends are being uncovered. With 20% Of S&P Reporting, YoY Ex-Fin Revenue Growth Is... Negative  - I've been speculating what's going to happen in a revenueless business environment. It will catch up eventually. Beating depressed low bar estimates is great, but when that bar starts getting lowered again (or at least quits getting raised) look out!


Being from Georgia this headline from Mish caught my eye, the rest of the post caught my attention. Hoschton Georgia Dissolves Police Department One would think in a country that is sure to face some serious rebellion within the year, uh, police may be important. How about with 18% unemployment that crime may become an issue? States and cities are desperately trying to balance their budgets and making some dramatic cuts. Just take a peek at what the Governator and Illinois are doing. Tax revenue is waaaay down. Just wait till Big Brother comes down from on high and starts hitting up the taxpayers left and right. the states will really be SOL then and so will we. This will get really ugly. (Hoschton is just north of the ATL - I had to look that one up)

More shenanigans in the reported numbers from Big Brother? ANOTHER revised number you say? No, kidding? It caught Mish's and Denninger's attention (and since you know I am large into manipulation), so I bring it to you. Mish has Charts of the Day: Durable Goods and Goods Employment In General and Denninger has Durable Goods "Mistake" Or FRAUD? You can't make this shit up, but THEY CAN!

Prag Cap brings us DICK BOVE: WE ARE ON THE PRECIPICE OF A POLITICALLY DRIVEN EQUITY CRASH  "Dick Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Research released an alarming report yesterday detailing the dangers of a politically driven market.  In his opinion, we could be on the verge of a market crash driven by the President’s financial reform bill and growing anti-business sentiment:" Combine this with Charles Nenner's interview here and you get a good mix of disaster preparedness. Of course Ritholtz had this to say about the Bove article - Most Irony-Impaired Wall Street Research Title. Ever.

Ritholtz has NY Fed Wanted National Security Exemption for AIG and Zero Hedge has Use of National Security Book Cooking Exception Not Looking So Paranoid After All I'm telling you that this thing is gonna blow up and the people will not be happy. IMO, EVERYTHING is out of control in Washington and it will all come out in the wash sooner or later. The fraud, lies and insider rigging has been rampant. This time it has gotten so big they will not be able to cover up this pile of poo. Someone will get strung up for this eventually.



That is enough for now. Do your homework and be prepared. Screw gold, ammo, water and seeds will rule the day in a year or two. 


GL!

Whuz Up Out There?

U.S. stocks helped by health-care sector is the headline on Marketwatch. "The rally in health-care stocks came as voters headed to the ballot box in a surprisingly tight race to replace the late Edward Kennedy. Democrats would lose their filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority in the U.S. Senate if Republican candidate Scott Brown wins. That could pave the way for legislative compromises that could defer more to the private sector. Read more about the contentious race." I'm sure you all know all about that now, but it deserves to be rehashed as this is a HUGE event. The irony that the bill that Sen Kennedy wanted so bad would be destroyed from his seat. Something tells me the HC stocks will win either way as we really have not other options and this administration (nor any other) is going to do anything to curb the cost of medical care. There is simply too much money in the business and they'll keep our faithful representatives stoked with cash to ensure nothing changes. The peripherals surrounding this election are enormous and what gets slammed thru congress in the next week may have your head spinning (Bernanke re-appointment?).

Why do I believe there will be a big P3? Cause what we have sewn will come to roost and the ensuing cover-up has only made issues worse and is simply delaying the inevitable. Oh, The Truth Is The Banks Are Insolvent? (Still) from the Market Ticker states, "The bottom line?  The banks are still insolvent, Treasury is still lying, the banks are still refusing to recognize losses that have already happened as a direct consequence of their intentional and outrageous conduct and all of this together will prevent any meaningful recovery the broader economy from taking hold." I can not agree more and thus the next Japan we will be. When QE is done, the jobless rate remains constant, the consumer savings rate spikes, the accounting fraud ends, taxes are raised across the board, how the heck are we gonna recover? 

The Pragmatic Capitalist found a doozie that I liked.GURU OUTLOOK: FELIX ZULAUF & THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET it is always a pleasure when you find a "guru" that agrees with your opinion. “we are in the early stages of a deleveraging process, which is marked by a shift from maximizing profits to minimizing debt. It is a multiyear process. The U.S. consumer is in bad shape, and the U.K. consumer is even worse.”  You go Felix! 

FT has a good post on How the big banks rigged the market. "The next stage must be scrutiny of the structural distortions that allow these institutions to rack up such huge profits. Broadly speaking, the leading players in at least three areas of investment banking – wholesale markets, underwriting and mergers and acquisitions – have been operating natural oligopolies." Control, control, control OF EVERYTHING. Lehman was whacked and the smaller competition is being weeded out. I would not be surprised to see them busted up in the future (if and only if we get some sort of honest representation). Until then, I believe it has been proven beyond any doubt that they run the show. 

The Big Picture brings us The Anti-Fed Fact Sheet please read this.

A number that flew under the radar as the markets soared today was NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines in January (aside from the C report this am - how many billions did they lose?).

Look out for the banksters earnings in the am. Should be an interesting day. Before the bell we'll have BAC, MS, WFC and STT just to mention a few. Earnings calendar here.

I have no clue what happened to the font. blogger acted up the whole post and was a pain to deal with. Sorry.

Newsworthy Items

I'm really not sure about the economic horizon. Just kidding.

The audacity of government officials that continuously spew lie after lie telling us all is well, the recession is over, nothing to see here, move along is getting under my skin again. The honeymoon is almost over. I have not forgotten all of the fraud, misleading statements, the lies, the sheer criminal actions. I have not been lulled to sleep and have not partaken of the kool-aide or hopium distributed by the pushers in Washington and on Wall Street. I hope you have not either. All is not better. Sooner or later the top is gonna blow and the magnitude of the devastation will be historic. I have a self imposed "no rant" policy in place thru the holiday season, but you can be reassured that one is building in me like a mini Mount Vesuvius.

As my regular readers know I have speculated all along that it would take and "external event" to rip the market from the manipulators. Dubai was a close call. If the rumors of the withdrawal of funds from CITI were true, that would have totally devastated the whole financial system. You and I both know that if Dubai were to w/d all their funds from CITI they would not have them and then the trickle down effect would have been disastrous (think It's a Wonderful Life but there is no backstop). That said, what happens to Greece here Greece Enters Twilight Zone As It Announces 90% Banker Bonus Tax Plans, Expectations For Sub 3% Deficit By 2013 or Mexico Mexico Downgrade By S&P From BBB+ To BBB Means Everyone Get On The Bailout Train? Troubles in Austria? No More Failures Ever As Moral Hazard Goes Global: Austria's Hypo Alpe Adria Nationalized. The global ship is taking on water (actually the first two decks are full, they just won't admit that to you). It will not be long before a country defaults and tears down the financial house of cards. They are doing their best to hide the truth from you and me, but in reality we know, so why the charade? The global Ponzi scheme/musical chairs will end.


So most Americans disapprove of everything that is going on and polls say we would like things done differently (take HC for example), but they refuse to listen to us and go along their merry socialist path of righteousness. What is this country becoming? Cities Shut Off Streetlamps to Save Money; Indianapolis Threatens $2500 Fines for Challenging Traffic Tickets is a good example of what coming down the pike. Cities are strapped for cash and it will become painfully more obvious over the next year. Never mind that Paterson: 'New York Has Run Out Of Cash' or the 20% unemployed are running out of cash as well (wonder what types of actions that will bring?)

This one will being a smile to your face (and get you to questioning why we have not wiped out the poppy fields in Afghanistan). Do Summers, Geithner and Bernanke Have to Share Credit for Saving the Banks with Drug Kingpins? It is an interesting though and if proven true the conspiracy nuts will be, well, right again. 

And last but not least THE 5 REASONS GOLD IS IN A BUBBLE AND AT RISK OF SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION  Who am I to argue with Roubini? OK, I'll take the bait since I challenged myself. I think it corrects with the initial plunge of the market as people do not understand what they have and they rush for the exits and trade for profit. Then the smart ones (me) come in and buy it up and make it their only holding. Sounds good on paper at least. 

Take care and have a great holiday season.

Is There Any Good News?

Trick question, it depends on if you are a bull or a bear. If you want to hear something good go back to watching CNBS or turn on CNN where you'll get some sort of sanitized feed that will keep you in the dark forever. If you want to hear me gloat in the impending doom of our democracy or hear me bash on a politician du jour, please read on.

I was going to try to string these few Zerohedge posts into a clever scentance, but could not pull it off. You 'll get the gist of what I was going to try to get across as Most Recent Insider Selling to Buying Ratio: 82:1 as Consumer Credit Contracts For 9th Straight Month, Non-Revolving Credit Increases, but since Cash is King  there is no need to worry about Fried Calamari? for dinner. Wait a minute - I did make a sentence out of it. Caution, that may become some sort of new game for Shanky to play with himself. I think Marla may appreciate that (the sentence - not the playing thingy).

Mish has a good one from the most corrupt city in the USA. We all know Chcago is a really screwed up place that has produced a litany of characters that leave much to be desired (most recently our president). So what do they do to balance their budget? Chicago Cannibalization: Mayor Daley's Budget Eats 75% of a 75 Year rainy Day fund in One Year You just have to read this one to believe it. Creative financing at it's finest. And some wonder why I am such a perma bear? Cities, states, federal governments are using every available crutch right now without regard to the future consequences to solve a variety of funding issues. You talk about a recipe for disaster. The dig drop, deflation, depression is coming folks. It is just a matter of time.

Since we're dissing local governments (like shooting fish in a barrel these days) why don't we try But Wait, How About The States? from Dennninger. "Things are probably worse than most people believe," state Sen. Mike Doherty told me the other day. "It’s questionable if we’ll even be able to meet payroll in a few weeks." Oh kay, so payroll may be a problem as well as some possible bond default issues (nothing to worry about- really ;-)). Don't say they did not tell you so and don't say I did not tell you so. It is only a matter of time and the ammunition used in reflation project 2009 is empty.

naked capitalism has a must read in Newsweek: Goldman Supplied 9 Pages of Proposed Changes to Derivatives Legislation. This one is a classic, "Newsweek’s “Why is Barney Frank So Effing Mad?” is supposedly about the Congressman from Fidelity but is really about how the banksters are succeeding in neutering financial reform. One Congressional staffer has told me that everyone involved recognizes the measures don’t go far enough, but feel they can’t do much more (Congress can step out only so far ahead of the Executive, and this one clearly is in no mood to take a more aggressive stand)."  You'll laugh and cry your way thru a great article that is filled with suspence (just how much of the recent legislation did GS actually write) and humor regarding the neuterization of everything in Washington. This one might actually make you scream.

The Pragmatic capitalist brings you 10 REASONS THE EQUITY RALLY IS OVER from Rosie. BUT, BUT, BUT - TPC has this to say, "In other words, we remain in a “beat and raise” world.  That is unchanged for now and will ultimately be the reason why David’s 10 reasons are wrong and why the unwavering bear will be wrong again about this market top…." I'll have to go comment on this one later on TPC's site. They do great work and maybe I need some clarification to his statement. I can actually go for a little more manipulated upside, but his "improvement in corporate margins" reasoning has me a bit miffed.

So, where do you stand? Washington's Blog has 79% of Americans Want an Audit of the Fed, Only 21% are in Favor of Confirming Bernanke, and Only 20% Think Geithner is Doing a Good Job. "Trust will not be restored until Bernanke and Geithner are replaced with people whose loyalty is to the American public and small businesses, rather than the Wall Street giants, and whose track record demonstrates that they will put the American people and entire economy as a whole - rather than the big boys - first."  I could not have said it better and the sooner we get these self serving bastards out of their posts the better off we will be. Oh, did you read where Kashkari is going to work? Now the Kashkari Puff Piece Makes Perfect Sense

The Big Picture has a nice post on Who Wins When the US Dollar Falls? that you should read.

That is enough for now. Yet another day without any good news (unless you want to count TPC's statement that I am ignoring). Market is very toppy now and teetering, but that is usually when the PPT/reinflation team is at their best. I am very suspicious of them letting the dollar breathe a little and then using it's powers to assist in halting any major down turns that may be imminent (note the market fell today 15min before the dollar reacted)

GL out there and happy holidays.

Whutz In The Newz?

Jobs report leaked by White house? LOL, now that's funny, but I don't put anything past this administration. Maybe they wanted to test the waters to see what kind of withdrawal they had to make for the PPT in the am. Did the White House leak Friday's employment report? Obama has before. 


Mish has a doozy in Service Sector ISM Back In Contraction; Stimulus Fades Already - "Not only are there no pavement fairies, there are no fairies of any kind. The idea that Keynesian work projects can stimulate the economy back to a lasting recovery is loony. Japan proved that for two decades, but Keynesian clowns still insist it's just a matter of throwing more money around until something good happens. Nothing good happened in Japan from Quantitative Easing or Keynesian stimulus efforts and nothing good will happen in the US from them either. The problem is debt and the cure is paying off that debt, not going deeper into it. In the meantime prepare for the double-dip or an economic flatline at best because that is how the signs are pointing." I'm gonna keep on hammering home this point. We are in deep shit and no one seems to really notice (or at least want to admit it). Maybe the reincarnation of a Comcastic CNBS will help the masses get back up to speed?

Both Zero Hede and Denninger have this one covered, so since we all read ZH, I thought I'd give Karl the nod on the post here. Here It Comes... (Sovereign Treasury Sales) "If Japan starts selling in size rates on the long end will go materially higher.  This will whack the daylights out of the cash price for these bonds.  Who else has a lot of these things?  China. Stampede risk here?  Yep. Danger to our government's ability to finance its profligate spending? Uh huh." This is a big deal especially with the Fed testing the repo waters. Can you say double whammy? do you blame Japan? I'm surprised that we have not seen more of this already (that we are at least aware of). Taking liquidity (the life blood) out of the markets and treasury sales at the same time would be like removing the feeding tube. Not good.

Leave it to TD and team at the almighty Zero Hedge to expose the meaningful. The Untold Story - Emergency Unemployment Compensation Claims Surge By 265k In One Week  - "In light of this massive divergence in jobless trends, an eager Kool Aid drinking world is expecting Goldman's Jan Hatzius to provide a forecast (with at least 10 significant digit precision) ahead of tomorrow's NFP number. Jan, don't let the Goldman prop trading desk down!!!"

The Pragmatic Capitalist has AN INTERVIEW WITH A COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INSIDER  - "We owe foreigners $50 trillion. The government wants to sink the dollar so that we’ll owe $25 trillion.. Longer term, it’s better to have a strong currency. But as a debtor nation, we want the dollar weak. In any event we’ll eventually be owned by foreigners. But what does Obama care if he sells out the country? The leaders are international, and they take care of themselves. Once you’re in this vicious cycle, you’re in it. The nature of the information is a problem once you’re so weak." That sums it up nicely. Can you say End Game? This was a good read coutesy of Phil's Stock World.

I am not ignoring the Bernanke hearings today. I believe that would be overkill reporting it here. What was not overkill was his hearing. IMO he got off real easy today. I believe that if some of the Senators would show some real emotion the public would love it and that would do us all some good. 

Don't forget to keep an eye on the National Debt Clock.

Tomorrow morning should be interesting. If 1080 in the minis gives way get your hard hats out. I'll do a Look Into The Futures post later tonight if anything is cooking.

Have a great holiday season.

News Time!

Since unemployment numbers appear to be steady (which is a great thing!), the market salutes the 169k newly canned (jit for Xmas) Americans by piercing to new highs! Nothing like spiking that 401(k) to make them feel better about their current situation. Have you figured out the liquidity driven, carry trade supported HFT dominated market yet? Nah, I did not think so. I have not either. I do know one thing, look for a few sharts coming soon to signal the top is near.

Let me put the pieces together for you!

Zero Hedge - October Credit-Card Delinquencies Rise Again, Approach Record Highs Says Fitch - "As Zero Hedge pointed out, and as Meredith Whitney has voiced her concernes about, the biggest threat to the economy going into 2010 may be that not only are banks dropping reducing overall credit availability, but that ongoing credit contraction to the tune of almost $2 trillion over the next several years will mean existing credit limits are tapped out as existing ones become increasingly maxed out." No consumer = No GDP The government can't perpetually support 70% of GDP (esp in non job producing efforts). The HNW (high net worth) can not spend enough to make up for the loss os the little guy. The balance is gone and the consumer is dead and getting worse. The banks are hoarding cash for some sort of impending rainy day disaster that is in the plans. It is painfully obvious.

Mish - 24 States Borrow Money To Pay Unemployment Benefits  - Was there an unemployment report today? Do they really even matter anymore? "The key take-away from this series are the millions of workers whose hours will rise before companies start hiring more workers. Unemployment will be structurally high for a decade." Uh huh, he said structurally high for a DECADE. I agree. Uh, Mish, how about the wage deflation that comes with the increased hours? Hell, where is all the money coming from? (I believe you know and feel the answer - and will feel it even worse in the future). "I sense a huge tax increase coming. Add that tax increase to concerns over cap-and-trade, rising taxes on the wealthy (many are small business owners), concerns over health care costs, etc, and small businesses have lots of reasons not to hire."  We are soooooo screwed. 23 friggin states? Half of the US of A? Our saviors have done nothing but plug the hole in the employment damn with some expensive chewing gum, and if you remember those cartoons when they tried the same remedy, it always failed miserably. NOTHING has been done (or really can be done) to stem the tide of Americans hitting the streets right now. Wait till the new year and those businesses that have been hanging on just to get thru one more Xmas start shuttering their doors. More empty retail space coming! 

Washington's Blog - Robert Reich Confirms Permanent Destruction of Jobs in America - Since we are dealing with some serious unemployment issues, why not highlight them and give them the moment in the sun they deserve (no one else is covering the topic). "Under the pressure of this awful recession, many companies have found ways to cut their payrolls for good. They've discovered that new software and computer technologies have made workers in Asia and Latin America just about as productive as Americans, and that the Internet allows far more work to be efficiently outsourced abroad."  Sounds reasonable to me. More with less for less pay! BRILLIANT! Folks, we have some serious problems. If there is not enough work for say a 4% unemployment number (real not fake), we're really screwed.


naked capitalism -AmTrust Financial bankruptcy a bad sign for regional banks - (via Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns) "AmTrust Financial, a privately held regional bank holding company based in Cleveland, has just filed for bankruptcy. With $11 billion in assets, AmTrust Bank is fairly large. The circumstances surrounding its failure are unusual in that the Bank Holding Company (BHC) has filed for bankruptcy but the banking subsidiary is still operating. The picture this event reveals is one of continued distress in the banking industry, especially for regionals." This is a good one. "What does that tell you? I see it as a sign of many more busts to come. You might recall that I mentioned a growing dichotomy between the fortunes of big banks and small banks about two weeks ago. Too big to fail banks have been bailed out. Regional banks not so much. Therefore, regional banks have turned off the spigot and are holding on for dear life. This is what is behind the drop in lending."  Was I just covering above something about unemployment and lack of credit and banks hoarding money for some reason? Yup, I thought so. (more on AmTrust HERE from Calculated Risk)

The Pragmatic Capitalist -THE BANK PROFIT MIRAGE  -"The following is a guest contribution from Annaly Capital Management.  They eloquently show how bank earnings are still in dire capital positions and that their profits are nothing more than a mirage.  There are many hurdles ahead for the banks:"

SUMMARY - Mmmmkayyy, so banks are hoarding cash, not lending and the profits they make are a mirage leading to more impending bankruptcies while unemployment continues to rise while states have to borrow money to pay unemployment claims while we will not be able to create enough jobs to solve the current employment black hole while the the consumer credit card default rates near record levels while the government is looking to tax you for every fart over the legal limit. Got it? Good! So do you now understand the physics underlying the bull market 2009 and all the upgrades that are based on increased earnings assumptions?

Kind of scary that little 'ol me can put the pieces together and the greatest economists on the planet totally disagree with my fact driven assumptions. Guess if I was on the Fed's payroll I would not be able to figure it out either.

Have a great night and enjoy the season.

Could It Get Any Worse?

Does anyone out there get the feeling that the load on our proverbial Mule is getting a bit heavy and that our Ass is about to give out on us? It seems that the global financial system has finally reached DEFCON 9 and everyone is finally on red alert. A little hick-up in Dubai and the scramble that follows is like the roaches in the kitchen scattering when the lights come on. Anyone out there get the feeling that we are hours/days away from a real country biting the dust? How about something like AIG finally proving to be to big to save? The global financial time bomb is ticking and there will not be some super agent to come shut down the countdown at 007. We're close.

Since I am bored with the markets sideways action, and I'm not anticipating anything out of the ordinary I'll stick with the news tonight.

Zero Hedge - NY Fed Announces More Reverse Repos Coming, Spooks Stocks  - "In the coming weeks, as an extension of this work, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to conduct a series of small-scale, real-value transactions with primary dealers. Like the earlier rounds of testing, this work is a matter of prudent advance planning by the Federal Reserve. It does not represent any change in the stance of monetary policy, and no inference should be drawn about the timing of any change in the stance of monetary policy in the future." OK, so let's read between the lines, nothing to see here, move along. As ZH addresses, the previous failure and the sheer mention of "value" is quite humorous. Like they think we have no clue and the potential results of this experiment mean nothing and should not be of any significance to anything. LOL, now that's funny. Benny Boy, care to tell us why you are doing these then? 


Washington's Blog - Climate: We Can All Agree On Two Things (Via a read in ZH) - "Everyone should read the leaked emails and rationally think through what they mean. But whatever one believes about climategate (the leaked emails showing that "tricks" were used to "hide the decline" in the climate data and the destruction of the original source data), we should all be able to agree that: (1) We should end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; and (2) We should not let the financial giants who caused the financial crisis to profit off of cap and trade schemes." There are several key news issues I have not touched on for one reason or another (mainly cause they so freaked me out and pissed me off I was not sure how to react). The leaked climate change emails should cause the conspiracy denialists to scurry into their cupboards and rethink every truth they have ever known (but they won't). This is as serious as it gets. With the Copenhagen meetings next week we all need to pay really close attention to what transpires. This may be the biggest event that lays the groundwork for the UN to govern our future and not our Constitution. I'm not kidding. This is huge.

The Market Ticker - They Aren't Really This Stupid, Are They?  Karl does a great job with this post. More laughable words from the Treasury its self. Again, conspiracy pundits stand up and take note, "Here is the real stunner. A senior person at Treasury said to a small group of us that it is now official Treasury policy to extend and pretend on real estate loans. In other words, the policy statement from last week says, if you can make an analysis that says even if the current value is less than the loan, if you can do a spreadsheet that shows if you extend for 3-5 years, and if the economy gets better, and if the loan can be amortized down to where the loan is no longer more than the value, then the lender does not have to take an impairment -write down. Loans are to be modified by rate reductions, deferral of reserves, deferral of amortization or what ever." This one is a must read so you will better understand the levels of false accounting and price manipulation all in the name of "better" balance sheets at any cost. And you wonder why the market keeps going up? Sadly, even with these tricks IMO the market still fails. How sad is that?



Mish -New Record Low Yield On Two Year Treasuries; Is This The Start Of A Dollar Rally?  - This is some real news relating to marker prices you need to note. "Given the US markets were closed yesterday, I have the same question floating in my mind as a day ago, wondering if this is another one day wonder rally in the dollar (and another one day wonder selloff in equities) or if this is the start of a long awaited correction in both the dollar and equities." I have been looking for this dislocation and have mentioned these actions several times in various posts over the past weeks.Keep an eye on this development.

Zero Hedge - Is Gold The New DXY Levered Intraday Speculative Bet?- Related to the above post from Mish, ZH wonders if the dollar has a new bitch?

The Pragmatic Capitalist - 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF - "Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline.  Why have they turned a bit more cautious?  A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events:" It is worth a look, but nothing new to the savvy technicians out there. For those of you wondering what these "super analysts" are worth and why we listen, your guess is as good as mine.

Times are getting testy. As my regular readers know, I do not expect anything bad to happen between now and Xmas. IMO they will not do anything to disrupt the non credit card wielding consumers at this time. After Xmas is over, all bets are off. On the other hand, if some EU country should decide to go bump in the middle of the night (as monsters do), chaos should ensue and there is nothing the PPT will be able to do to control the market (except shut it down as it almost did with Rule 48 last week). The boogey man is real and he's lurking (and I'm not talking about some horrifying disco king from the late 70's). It will happen overnight while you are sleeping (for Xmas sake I should have called him the Grinch). We may all wake up one morning to a closed market and then a sweet 1,000 pt plunge (remember I'm calling for at least two market closures on this next trip down.

GL out there and happy holidays.

What's Going On? (The Video Edition)

Let's get the game started with Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) - Interviewed on CNBS this morning - "We are throwing our country's future down the tubes. This bill is terrible." And, "It has more trickery, lower level, more sinister, than even what happened in the House. $189 billion in the hole." And "We're doing exactly the wrong thing and sending the wrong signals to our partners around the world that are funding our debt." And, "This is all about doing something for the President." And "We look at this as one oif the most backwards stepping thing for our country that we have seen in decades and will hurt out country for generations." Class act, ponzi scheme and new entitlement are other words that popped out of his mouth describing this bill. Please listen and heed his words.This is a classic. I love Corker.



Zero Hedge - Post-Lehman Deja Vu As T-Bill Yields Turn Negative  - "The last time Bill yields turned negative (in essence investors paying the Government to hold their money for them) was in the days after the Lehman bankruptcy, when the entire world was about to blow up. So why did Bill yield for January maturity just turn negative once again?" For those of you looking for a top, this may be a clue. LOL, NEGATIVE T-Bill rates for goodness sakes.

Mish -Economists Opposing Fed Audit Are On Fed Payroll - This is a classic. We explored this earlier this year when we discovered that all of the economists are on the Fed's payroll as there really is no need for an economist sice they never get anything right. "That list of economists is anything but unbiased. The conflict of interest is clear, loud, and undeniable." Audit The Fed Needs Your Help ... Again! I could not agree more!

The Market Ticker - Since we are on the subject of auditing the Fed has- Oh Oh - Here Comes Cummings (Fed Audit) - "They are now calling for a FULL CONGRESSIONAL REVIEW of THE ENTIRE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, including A FULL PUBLIC AUDIT." I'm telling ya now, call your reps now while we have a chance to dave our country. this is the first step in getting our democracy back. 

Zero Hedge - Dylan Ratigan Discusses The "Audit The Fed" Support Letter  - since we appear to be hammering the subject home right now.





naked capitalism - Via Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns -Marc Faber: “I don’t think that you’ll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever” - Not sure I agree with the "ever" part of this, but I would agree it will be a long time before any meaningful fall. I went and got the vids from youtube for you. This is 1 of 2.




The Pragmatic Capitalist - CONGRESSMAN BRADY ASKS GEITHNER TO STEP DOWN  - If you missed it this morning. Timaaay got grilled again. You gotta love it, but that smug ass punk just threw it back. I got the vid again. You should like this one. 





And in a really sad note - UGA VII dies  "Uga VII, the University of Georgia football mascot, died unexpectedly Thursday morning in Savannah." at least he got one last good whipping of Auburn before he went. RIP you good Dawg. RIP.


Have a great evening and GL trading.

I Have Had Enough Of This Crap!

Screw this. Let me get this clear, I am not some permabear that has been burnt to a crisp nor some scorned bull that did not partake at the trough 'o plenty. Those that read the blog know I like to play the daily SPX indicators up and down and have for quite some time. I am a pissed off American watching the Fed, treasury, congress, the administration, the banksters and Wall Street piss away our country's future while they gang rape us sans KY and screw the Constitution in the process.

When HuffPo starts making sense to this former republican, you know things are getting screwy. Arinna penned Why It's Wrong When Wrongdoers Are Allowed to Admit No Wrongdoing which blasts the justice/regulatory system. "Of course, it's not just our "too big to fail" banks that have been allowed to do wrong without having to admit to any wrongdoing. The pharmaceutical industry and health insurance companies have been doing the "pay the fine but admit nothing" dance for years -- chalking up the millions (and sometimes billions) they have been fined as the cost of doing business." This needed to end years ago, but only now is some sort of conversation beginning to correct the problem. Well, if history is any indicator, either nothing will ever get done or some poor schmuck company will be sacrificed (bet they are not in the GS club).

Zero Hedge weighs in with The Cost Of The 60% Market Move; The Benefits Of Free Liquidity. "There is now no question that the sole, undisputed factor driving credit and equity markets is the dollar destructive collusion between the Fed and the major global central banks. As long as the Fed is dead set on inflation, and is willing to throw trillions of free liquidity at any problematic flare up, and is happy to keep interest rates at 0%, liquidity-addicted equities will likely push higher until such time that the incremental hopium "hit" does nothing, and markets overdose, ending up not just in the critical condition reminiscent of fall 2008, but outright death." The destruction of America's wealth is under way. Well, let me correct that, the destruction of your wealth and mine is almost complete. They will have absorbed every last dollar and committed us to taxation purgatory to support their looting. This will not sit well with the sheeple, but unfortunately it will be too late when they finally figure out what has happened.

Denninger bangs on the carry trade in So It's Official: IMF / Carry Trades. You see this is the rat spinning the wheel driving the engine. Karl warns, "The only remaining question is whether these "carry trades" and the dollar depreciation that they cause will continue to levitate the equity markets. Friday morning there was a stunning correlation between the moves in the dollar and the S&P 500 - but then suddenly about 11:00 AM Central time, it broke down. Many equity and index futures traders have been essentially using the dollar as their "roadmap" for the last several months - but this is a correlation that only works so long as the decline is both orderly and perceived to continue to be so. If and when that perception changes the correlation will break with extremely violent results." So you just follow the dollar around. You permabears looking for a top only need to find the bottom in the dollar (if one exists).

Mish had so many good posts it was hard to choose from them all. I went with Financial Transaction Taxes Would Cause Stock Market Crash. (wonder why - LOL) WTF are these assholes thinking about? Oh yeah, I have kind of covered in the previous paragraphs some of the financial issues facing the nation and how taxation (MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF TAXATION) is a necessary evil and they are working hard on figuring out how to get the money out of our pockets to pay for this fiasco. Wouldn't it be nice if they were this aggressive at fixing problems? "Proposed as a way to soak the rich while decreasing volatility, this bill would soak all stock holders and increase volatility. The markets will crash if this bill passes. Of course Congress is doing so many other stupid things, the market is likely to crash anyway."

PragCap brings us V-SHAPED RECOVERY? HOUSING BOTTOM? HUSSMAN ISN’T BUYING IT. "Two great pieces this weekend from John Hussman and William Hester at Hussman Funds. I would highly encourage readers to take a moment to read both pieces in their entirety. John Hussman’s piece attacks a topic we recently covered – the coming wave of mortgage resets that will create further headwinds for housing. Hester’s piece shows how the leading indicators of the economy are far from justifying the v-shaped recovery theory – a view the ECRI would vehemently disagree with. With large secular risks still at play and valuations stretched Hussman’s funds remain largely hedged as they continue to focus on downside risk." I have not read them both, but the Hussman's is really good. (But don't we all already know that the CRE and further RE crashes are coming (this is soooo 20007, except we see and know it is coming but don't give a shit).

I could go on and on, but you all know the drill. Wash, rinse, repeat (rob, lie, cheat) and on and on it goes. I have left out topics such as inflation, cap and tax and health care tonight cause the above is enough.

I plan on posting on UNG, Gold, the dollar and some other things soon. Remember the morning post in the am. Thanks for your support and good luck out there.

More Good News!

My favorite story of the day from Zero Hedge: CNBC Viewership Plunges 50% In October. The inverse of the market's numbers (but worse). I guess bad news really does sell more than good news. Hmmm, I guess ratings will be up again soon.

Denninger keeps harping on the unrealistic actions of our government as they continue to operate from Fantasy Land in More Arrogation Of Power? Arrogation is a big word for me. This one is good highlighting the Fed and treasury's illegal actions early in the game. "The Fed created this mess. "Loose money" along with willful blindness to reasonable regulatory requirements and in fact black-letter statutory requirements under the law to apply "prompt corrective action", along with wanton and reckless refusal to supervise and impose controls on firms levered 20 or even 30:1, especially given that Henry Paulson lobbied the SEC to remove the investment bank leverage limits in 2004, were the actual and proximate cause of all the failures." LOL, we sheeple are so lacking in any viable representation it is totally ridiculous.

Mish has some great P3 material. It appears that there is an outside possibility of some major cities having to file for bankruptcy (why they did not do Birmingham I don't know). In City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General) Mish highlights Houston, California, Oregon and Pension Systems country wide as in deep trouble. "It is highly likely that nearly every pension plan in the country is busted. The solution is for every city and municipality in a predicament to "pull a Vallejo" and declare bankruptcy. Please see Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts for details." It is coming folks. The ball busting fall is coming. 2008 may have been a cakewalk for what I expect to come.

Prag Cap (as well as ZH) have the BILL GROSS: “ALMOST ALL ASSETS APPEAR TO BE OVERVALUED” post. LOL, PIMPCO, weren't they just dumping some positions last week (at our expense if I am not mistaken)? Guess that is not included in the insider selling numbers I posted yesterday. "Bill Gross, arguably the most powerful money manager in the world, has joined the ranks of Jeremy Grantham in saying stocks have risen due to artificial influences and are now substantially overvalued." When the hell are some of my readers going to come around and face the facts that this market is manipulated as all hell and when it lets go, all hell will break loose. I know, Shanky you are bashing America and our spirit. Uh, no, I'm bashing the fact that everything has been stolen from us by the banks and our government let it happen. WE had nothing to do with it and if WE don't get off OUR asses, WE will have nothing left to bitch about.

Mary Shapiro obviously went to a Dr., and he's prescribed some sort of testosterone rub for her and it may be working. The FT reports in SEC head urges fresh securities laws that, "US securities laws are outdated and legislation is needed to govern new investment products that blew up during the financial crisis, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman told an industry gathering on Tuesday." ROFLMAO, what brainiac figured this out TWENTY YEARS AFTER THE FACT. Oh, that's right, Greenspan is out of the picture now, so hang Ben out to dry and you go to cut his fiscal legs out from under him and the economy. Don't expect anything other than rhetoric for at least 10 years.

That is enough for tonight. Don't forget the morning post. Thanks for tuning in.

(Unmask The Fed)

The Smell Of .....

What is that smell? Does not smell quite like victory for the bears yet, but it is the 4th quarter with about 5 minutes to go. The Green team is out of time outs and clinging to a one point lead. Red team is finally moving the ball. Green team is tired and their defense is showing some weakness. The red team's time to march the ball down the field for the winning score is all but certain. The only question is do they kick a field goal or ram it down their throats and get the TD?

Understanding todays market actions you need to look at what happened with the EUR/USD. Nic Lenoir does this well and lays it out nicely in Where Are Central Banks When You Really Need Them on Zero Hedge. "In very short term trading we hit the support however of a potential sideways channel, and short term indicators are massively oversold, so we could well retrace to 1,052 in the near term. Bigger picture we have two supports at 1,025 and 986. The later is pretty much the key between retracing to 862 and making new highs past 1,100." Someone around here has been looking for 1051 if I recall.

How can you tell when trouble is brewing? Sticking with the football theme from above Mish brings us Citigroup's "Hail Mary Pass": How To Know Citigroup Is In Serious Trouble. "Perhaps what we're really seeing is a business reacting to hidden deterioration of asset bases that are not known by investors and the public due to the legitimation of bogus accounting that happened this last March, but which is known by company executives!" Now Mish, seriously, accounting fraud and insinuating that there are improprieties surrounding a balance sheet? Oh, OK, I guess in fantasy land anything is possible. If we could only get more people to believe.

Speaking of not believing, Edward Harrison posts on Naked Capitalism Why is Zero Hedge claiming the Fed is intervening in equities markets? in a rebuttal to TD's An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility. On one side you have ZH and their belief (gloriously endorsed here at Shanky's blog) of Fed intervention via the PPT in the equity markets and Edward "The Party Pooper" Harrison countering with that thought being basically preposterous. I have this to say, sometimes things RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE are the hardest to see. Sure, the "theory" can not be "proven" at this time, but come on Ed, what the heck else could it be? Opening up your mind to something that "could be" is healthy. Give it a try sometime. Come on, you can do it.

On Friday Denninger put out Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned. Karl says, "I have reason to suspect that the "monetary transmission mechanism" is full of rocks (again), and we are about to have another instance of what could colloquially be called "fun." (Yes, that's sarcasm.)" and then lays out several interesting points you should read regarding credit and how it may affect you.

Prag Cap reminds us that INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RALLY. "Insider selling for the latest weak spiked to $846MM while buying remained abnormally low at $14.7MM. Selling spiked almost 3 fold, but was highly impacted by $330MM in selling in CBS by Sumner Redstone. Buying, however, fell from $32MM. Of course, it is the low level of buying that is particularly alarming. Insiders continue to exhibit an unusually low level of confidence in their own companies. As valuations spike, and the jobless/revenue-less recovery continues it’s not surprising to see insiders display a high level of skepticism in the rally that is most visible through the use of their own money." There are several other very useful posts there you should check out so hit the home button.

Funniest post of the day comes from The Big Picture - What’s in a Name? If you do not know what "tea bagging" is you should. Just look it up.

Have a great evening.

Let's Visit The News Today!

Just a few things to piss you off even further tonight in my attempt to educate you of the fraud and lies that are being thrust up your rear as they destroy any form of wealth you have left (pay no attention to the market). This is just nutty. Simply unbelievable the shit that goes on behind closed doors without OUR consent as to what means anything. I'm gonna stop this just short of a rant. That comes later this week.

For those of you that do not Visit Zero Hedge on a regular basis, please do so to read How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World. this is one of the few uber detailed posts that they do that really blow you away. The final paragraph, "As the DXY continues tumbling ever lower to fresh 2009 lows, the trade de jour is once again the dollar funding one, although unlike before when the Yen was the carry currency of choice, this time it is the dollar itself, positioning banks for the double whammy of not just a dollar funding shock, but one coupled with a potential massive and historic short squeeze. If and when an exogenous event occurs, not even $6.5 trillion in Fed swap lines will be sufficient to bail out the world economy. It is time someone in Congress asks the Chairman all the pertinent questions that evolve from this analysis and how he is prepared to handle its next, much more vicious, and likely terminal, iteration." I have kept harping on an "external" event and then P3. When it hits, it will take us out at the knees and there will be no fix in store. NONE. You really need to read this one.

Mish attempts a rant (well, he rants, but places his words in a more thoughtful and concise manner than I am capable of) in Where The Hell Is The Outrage? Mish presents several timely and accurate articles and at the end posts 22 things he is outraged over. Somehow after reading his rant and comparing it to mine, I now know why you prefer the home team when describing the actions of our government and the Fed.

Karl Denninger at The Market Tickr points out something that should really piss everyone off in ALERT: Nelnet Fraud Allegation. (Note: Zero Hedge Covers this issue in The Nelnet Whistleblower Scandal Hits Wikileaks: JPM, Citi And Nelnet Implicated In Massive Conspiratorial Student Loan Fraud) Karl summarizes, "This is Constitutionally indefensible and amounts to nothing other than preying upon our youth through the use of them as "levers" to both induce them to take on unconscionable debt and, when possible, abuse their parents - all for the benefit of the banksters who, this lawsuit alleges, don't even comply with the thin protections that Federal Law is supposed to provide!" So, we have uncovered another scam that someone in the enforcement arena seems not to care to address or even give a shit that it exists. Simply amazing. Wonder how many other issues like this are simply floating around out there?

Naked Capitalism has Munchau: Next Crisis Coming Sooner Than You Think. This post from the Financial Times is a good one. "Alternatively, central banks might prioritize financial stability over price stability and keep the monetary floodgates open for as long as possible. This, I believe, would cause the mother of all financial market crises – a bond market crash – to be followed by depression and deflation." This article puts the two paths ahead of us in a nutshell and surprisingly neither path has a good ending.

The Pragmatic capitalist reminds us that INSIDER BUYING STILL NEAR RECORD LOWS. "The latest data for the week ending October 16th shows that insiders sold $320.8MM worth of stock while insiders purchased just $32.81MM worth of stock." I'll let you do the math on that one. Pump and dump folks. They are hauling ass with your money! Get a clue.

The Big Picture found this Frontline: The Warning (Brooksley Born) which will be a must watch tomorrow night as Frontline narrates how Greenspan and the Clinton administration shut down the original whistleblower. This one should be a good watch. Set your TiVo's.

GL out there. In case you did not know APPLE CRUSHES ESTIMATES, ANALYSTS CONFOUNDED LOL.

Unmask The Fed

Time To Tune In!

Listen up sheeple, it is get a clue day at Shanky's blog. Holiday fun time is over and time for a reality check. Let me be your alarm clock to awaken you from the fed/treasury/government/MSM induced coma you have been in. Right now you should be "mad as hell and you are not gonna take it anymore".

In just what might be my favorite post of the year, Mish comments on Chris Martenson's article in One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed. I love the whole post. Very enlightening and poignant in its coverage of the LIES and DECEIT that have led to this rally. The cherry on top, "One irony in this mess is that Greenspan and the fed openly criticized Japan for failure to write down debts, telling Japan that write offs were the best way to end deflation. Japan refused to do so. Did it help? All the pretending in the world, along with all its quantitative easing did not halt a deflationary collapse in Japan." This post really encompasses just how friggin ignorant and how disjointed we are from reality. Just floating along believing what our government does will always be in our best interests. WRONG!

OK, not that I have easily determined that everyone in the USofA is an ignoramus and could not give a shot about anything as long as they have their MSM to suckle from, let's read Denninger's Is The Dollar Doomed?. You see in the last article we determined that accounting fraud and outright lies have been a big catalyst to the rally. ready for part two? "This is just another example of "kick the can"; instead of facing our medicine and swallowing, instead of forcing those financial institutions who made bad bets to eat them, we are instead devaluing our currency as a means of trying to "print" our way out of this." Sheeple, WAKE UP! They are taking your money and flushing it down the toilet. This is financial suicide. Ahhh, there lies the key. You see they were dead when they started the battle, so no rules apply anymore. Get it?

OK, sheeple, is the picture coming clear. Need to adjust those rabbit ears on top of your head one more time? Well, OK, try this from Washington's Blog via Naked Capitalism Guest Post: The OTHER Economic Crisis? "Indeed, as Richard Jackson told the White House Conference on Aging in 2005: If demography is destiny, global leadership may pass to the “Third” world… Countries with slowly growing workforces may have slowly growing economies… We live in an era defined by many challenges, from global warming to global terrorism. None is as certain as global aging. And none is likely to have such a large and enduring effect on the shape of national economies and the world order." Shanky, come on, now you are slinging a demographic crisis at us? Yup, in this most excellent post GW delivers something for you to ponder in about 20 years, that being WHO THE HELL IS GONNA PAY FOR ALL THIS SHIT when we don't have enough workers to support the taxes? (Mish or someone else has hit on this recently as well)

Prag Cap has INSTITUTIONS BUY CALL OPTIONS ON THE BANKS BEFORE EARNINGS. "Some big money is moving into the XLF banking ETF before the banks begin reporting their earnings this week. 130,000 calls were purchased today with expectations of a greater than 7% rally in the shares." And you are short. Aren't you? You're short. I know it. Admit it. OK, go back to the beginning and start reading again (read Mish's post twice). You failed. You MUST get in line and A) vote the way you are supposed to and B) invest with the heard.

Ritholtz has a story in picture form that you may understand better. Plummeting Dollars. If you have any questions after reading that post - never come back here again.

Shanky, nothing from your sacred cow ZH today? Hmm, glad you asked. OK - this is a video clip! (I can hear the sighs of relief loud and clear. No more reading I promise. I'm sure you have either fallen asleep or left after the first paragraph (this ain't USA today - oops their having readership issues?) In Chris Whalen Comments On Upcoming Financials' Earnings you'll get some good insight into how the shit will hit the fan soon. They can't hide it forever.

Is that picture tuning in a little better now? If you are a typical sheeple, you lost interest at the first sign of "snow" on your screen, you chunked the rabbit ears and said fuck it by now. Too hard. Too much to deal with. Let the government fix it, I gotta go fishing. BAM! There were the magic words, "Let the government fix it."

Both pictures (they are called charts) below are optimistic representations IMO.

OK - Picture time! 1928 to 1956 - From 1929 it took till 1955 to get it all back. This would represent the "square root" recovery most are hoping for. Bhuahahaha.




One last picture for you. Uh, they ain't got it all back yet. Konichiwa!



Note - I left off topics such as CDS, MBS, RE, CRE, Monetization, California, New York (or any of the 44 states under water) and Unemployment to keep this post at a remedial level. Oh, and the world is about to shit all over its self. Have your wipes ready.

Sometimes You Just Gotta Say WTF?

I said enough last night ( I feel like I have a post post hangover).

WTF - Zero Hedge - The Fed's 30 Minute Agency Monetization Window. "These shell games are getting tiresome. A half an hour turnaround time between issuance and buyback? Really Ben?". Zero Hedge is the WTF center of the universe.

WTF - Mish - Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators? "I would agree that a slip back into recession in the 4th quarter is unlikely, assuming of course it is even possible. Bear in mind, we have not had an official end of this recession declared yet." You'll like this one. Mish rips apart the LEI's and pulls the wool back that has been covering the sheeple's eyes.

WTF - Naked Capitalism - Is the consumer really deleveraging? submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. "What do you know, it’s up $7 billion. It is indeed down $4 billion for revolving credit as banks are cutting credit card limits. But, non-revolving credit is up over $11 billion. It was decreasing and is down 4.4% year-on-year (see the section highlighted in green above), but that ended this month." OK, so we all should feel like idiots now as Edward did his homework and we all just took the MSM's report without question. Goodness I feel so stupid right now. They lied to us again.

WTF - FT.com - US jobless claims fall more than expected. "New jobless claims declined by 33,000 to 521,000, official figures showed on Thursday. That was a bigger drop than economists expected and the number of workers continuing to claim benefits also fell, declining by 72,000 to 6.04m." I just don't get it. How is losing more than 500k jobs a good thing? I'll get Mish's REAL employment round up when it comes out.

WTF - The Market Ticker - Corruption: FHA Is Dying, Will Anyone Stop It? "The FHA's claim that it is practicing "conservative" underwriting is both a bad joke and a flat lie. Jeff Skilling went to prison for trying to run this sort of accounting at ENRON, yet we still have "government officials" doing the same thing at federal agencies." LOL, the FHA needs $56b to get above water. What's $56b in today's dollars? Oops, did someone take the actual value of the dollar into consideration here?

And my favorite WTF - The Underground Investor - A Market Rally in Monopoly Money. "As I’ve stated before, as long as Wall Street computers keep using low summer-like trading volumes to manipulate this market higher, the market can continue to melt up on the back of a devaluing dollar before it will eventually melt down. And as long as the US Federal Reserve continues to try to appease public anger by giving the public greater amounts of a worthless currency in a monetary game the public, by and large, fails to understand, I will continue to hold my currencies in forms that have zero counterparty risk." This is a good one.

Have a great evening!

Reality Hurts Everthing (But The Markets)

The bad news is flying fast and furiously as the market ramps up again. So what's new, right? Just when you thought we were out of the woods and some sort of normalcy or realism is setting in, the manipulators show they are not dead yet. Here is a smattering of news that will hopefully emphasize the impending doom that we will eventually be forced to endure courtesy of the elitist, protectionist assholes in charge.

Late last week Zero Hedge provided BLS Discloses It Has Overrepresented Payroll Data By 824,000 Or 15% and backed it up today with Charles Biderman Trashes BLS Flawed Payroll Model. OK, so there is a flaw in the way the government tracks something? Wait a freaking minute, you meant they are screwing around with the numbers and not telling us the truth? LOL, this does not just happen with the BS (excuse me BLS) reports. "These numbers are a joke." I could not agree more Charles.

While on the topic of employment, I'll bring Denninger's Employment: You're SMOKING Green "Shoots" post from Friday to the table. "This is an unmitigated catastrophe, and it did NOT abate during the so-called "economic expansion" of the 2000s. If that was a true economic expansion - that is, driven by people going to work and earning a productive living - then the "NILF" numbers would have contracted on a 12 month trailing basis during that so-called "expansion." They did not, which means the so-called "expansion" didn't come through productive labor." So what Karl is pointing out is that the employment situation has continually worsened wince 1999. Nice!

Mish (in a must read) takes a different angle on proving the BLS numbers are a bunch of bullshit in BLS Owner's Equivalent Rent Numbers From Twilight Zone. Mish concisely takes apart the RE side of the BLS report and exposes more green shoot anomalies that CNBS will undoubtedly be pouncing on soon. Just a thought, do you think the CNBS writers are on a career path from the BLS similar to the ones the GS execs take to the government? Just wondering.

Naked Capitalism exposes some of the more serious issues behind the bullshit that goes on behind the scenes in Why is Goldman allowed to game the system?. "I think eyes should be focused firmly on the government’s responsibility and not Goldman when it comes to these issues. Which is why the issues that Simon Johnson raises are important. They go to the core of the regulation of banks." And to those of you that question my market manipulation theme and why some of my calls (see XLF below) hold a high degree of caution, now you know.

The Pragmatic Capitalist has INSIDERS CONFIRM THAT THE RALLY IS FAKE, ECONOMY IS “GETTING WORSE”. "We’re slowly beginning to piece together the puzzle of insider selling that has been so pronounced throughout the rally. By now we all know that the uptick in the economy has been mostly stimulus based. We also know that businesses are still seeing deteriorating top line growth and unsustainable growth via cost cuts. These have been the primary reasons for our skepticism regarding the sustainability of the rally and the economic upturn. As the market soars higher insider selling has been confounding to say the least, but the recent comments from Ken Langone and the Business Roundtable Survey essentially confirm what we have long thought: the rally is built on quicksand." This one is GREAT! PUMP AND DUMP baby! Congratulations, your 401k has been sucked up, up, up and now without your knowing it is being pick pocketed. But don't worry, you be aware of it soon enough.

FOX News has IG Report Finds Paulsen, Bernanke Misled Public on Bank Rescues. So, why is Bernanke still in charge? Cause he is the grand PooBah. He is the untouchable one. He can say whatever the hell he wants.

I certainly do not think I am crazy, but I am a firm believer that our government is totally screwing us. Not only did they allow all of this to happen via ZERO regulation (and the removal of a few hurdles), but they have the balls to try to tell us to our faces (on a consistent basis) that things are fine and improving. Bullshit! Improving my ass. Not getting worse, maybe in some sectors. Hell it is hard to get lower than low. What is that pond scum joke we all used in high school? The lies will all come out in the wash the way your mom and dad always told you they would. The lies are becoming increasingly harder to cover up. When the truth is known, we will be the joke of the world and our transformation from the world's wealthiest fraud to bankrupt nation will be complete.

Don't miss the XLF post below.

Wow, I'm Actually Making Money Now!

Good thing as I dropped off the property tax bill today. So what do we have newsworthy tonight that can add some fuel to this fire? Hmmm, should not be hard to find if you ask me. I think you'll get a good laugh somewhere in this post.

TD and Zero hedge will lead us off with Nic Lenoir's Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme? How bout this little factoid that will bring a smile to the premabears faces, "I saved the best for last: the LQD ETF which is basically a proxy for investment grade bonds which has been on a straight ramp up since October 08 seems to have broken its trend. Tha comes on the back of some observations over the last few weeks of some divergence between the CDS market which has made attempts to move wider while equities kept grinding up. This is by far the most important development. If the price action in the next 2/3 days confirms this break, then really it means the carry trade as a whole is starting to break down." As Cartman would say, sveeeeet!

Karl Denninger does the best job at ripping the preshredded fodder left over from the capitol hill grindings. Today he rips on Helicopter Ben in To Bernanke: It's Time To Stop Lying. "Or shall we talk about the "off-balance sheet" games, such as Wachovia's practice of writing CDS against their own tranches of OptionARMs as inducement to get people to buy them - a toxic brew that has now landed on Wells Fargo and remains undisclosed as to the exposure it presents to Wells from possible (or even probable) defaults! Wells has some $2 trillion of this off-balance sheet exposure and they're hardly alone in the (ab)use of these "QSPEs" - indeed, those are the same sort of vehicles that a really great energy-related company called ENRON was (ab)using to hide mounting losses that ultimately blew them sky-high." Note to Karl, stay away from the 5hr Energy man. You will blow. I can feel the angst being transmitted from your keyboard into mine and I don't need any more angst in my life right now.

OK, I'm not sure if this headline is a joke or not, Greenspan Calls Market Top Buahahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants! Thank you Naked Capitalism for my best laugh of the day. You mean the man with the troop of 1,000 economists (some salaried and some contracted) that all monitor this shit daily and missed the top in the first place, and YOU, yes you all by your little self, pull this out of your ass? You got to be freaking kiddin me? Uh, Mr. Greenspan, and your credibility to call this top would be? Yes? It would be?

Mish brings a rosy report from Rosenberg in Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state”. "“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there's no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said." Uh, ok, now that is not what I heard on CNBS or from the leading ML analyst that took your old job. David, have you not had your government mandated green shoot tea today? Please report to the infirmary at once.

The Pragmatic Capitalist comes thru with it's daily must read in MUST READ: THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FED SECRECY Sveeeet! You all know I love this shit.

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

- Thomas Jefferson

(Note: support audit the Fed HERE.)

Bhuahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants again! Oooh, better go clean that up.

Have a great night. Bhuahahahaha. He called a top. OMG, that's funny as shit.