Busy earnings day and AAPL hits it out of the park. We don't own a mac yet, but we can't get off of iTunes. With the kids getting iTouches for Xmas, maybe the 1,000 songs/apps they have purchased since 12/25 put AAPL over the top (or my account under the bus?) Apple earnings jump on strong iPhone sales. The action of AAPL has been volatile with a surge to 208 and subsequent pullback to 200.
Looking into earnings some disturbing trends are being uncovered. With 20% Of S&P Reporting, YoY Ex-Fin Revenue Growth Is... Negative - I've been speculating what's going to happen in a revenueless business environment. It will catch up eventually. Beating depressed low bar estimates is great, but when that bar starts getting lowered again (or at least quits getting raised) look out!
Being from Georgia this headline from Mish caught my eye, the rest of the post caught my attention. Hoschton Georgia Dissolves Police Department One would think in a country that is sure to face some serious rebellion within the year, uh, police may be important. How about with 18% unemployment that crime may become an issue? States and cities are desperately trying to balance their budgets and making some dramatic cuts. Just take a peek at what the Governator and Illinois are doing. Tax revenue is waaaay down. Just wait till Big Brother comes down from on high and starts hitting up the taxpayers left and right. the states will really be SOL then and so will we. This will get really ugly. (Hoschton is just north of the ATL - I had to look that one up)
More shenanigans in the reported numbers from Big Brother? ANOTHER revised number you say? No, kidding? It caught Mish's and Denninger's attention (and since you know I am large into manipulation), so I bring it to you. Mish has Charts of the Day: Durable Goods and Goods Employment In General and Denninger has Durable Goods "Mistake" Or FRAUD? You can't make this shit up, but THEY CAN!
Prag Cap brings us DICK BOVE: WE ARE ON THE PRECIPICE OF A POLITICALLY DRIVEN EQUITY CRASH "Dick Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Research released an alarming report yesterday detailing the dangers of a politically driven market. In his opinion, we could be on the verge of a market crash driven by the President’s financial reform bill and growing anti-business sentiment:" Combine this with Charles Nenner's interview here and you get a good mix of disaster preparedness. Of course Ritholtz had this to say about the Bove article - Most Irony-Impaired Wall Street Research Title. Ever.
Ritholtz has NY Fed Wanted National Security Exemption for AIG and Zero Hedge has Use of National Security Book Cooking Exception Not Looking So Paranoid After All I'm telling you that this thing is gonna blow up and the people will not be happy. IMO, EVERYTHING is out of control in Washington and it will all come out in the wash sooner or later. The fraud, lies and insider rigging has been rampant. This time it has gotten so big they will not be able to cover up this pile of poo. Someone will get strung up for this eventually.
That is enough for now. Do your homework and be prepared. Screw gold, ammo, water and seeds will rule the day in a year or two.
GL!
Showing posts with label Market collapse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market collapse. Show all posts
Monday, January 25, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Morning Post
Earnings calendar from - Briefing.com - notable today are C and IBM. Of course the market has moved up after C stinks up the joint. Citi's $7.6 bln loss meets Wall Street estimate from Marketwatch. Only in America can losing $7.6 bln be met with applause. This is a really screwed up place. That is good news folks. They MET expectations losing $7.6 BILLION! Reward them. Reward them with massive equity purchases.
Mas election is a really big deal. I am going to put my conspiracy tin foil hat on and speculate the front runner republican loses in a tight race, the dems to hold the seat and for a massive vote rigging case to come out of it.
Economic calendar - Barrons.com -
SPX daily chart - I am not gonna speculate for squat this week with the earnings on deck (unless we get on a good count). I don't like surprises. We all know the market looks super toppy and TA is suggesting a significant turn sooner or later. Sorry that is my style. Is the top in? Who the heck knows. EWI has called it again and maybe the third or fourth time is the charm. For their sake, I hope they are right. I don't think we are there yet, but we could be.
Big red candle on Friday breaking some support lines. I would normally be short at this point. I'll wait for form and the correction to get short if that is eventually the place to be. If there is a 3 down to com I want to be in on it. All the indicators here look pretty bad, but then again, they have been sort of range bound to overbought for quite some time. My best guess is pay attention to the lower fibs and support. I have been calling for the wedge pullback for a while and still stick to it. Yews, I am still looking for another higher high. GL!
Gold - headed down. Possibly in a 1 of 3 down. Ouch.
Oil - 84 to 77 is not good. Esp in one week. May be a bit oversold.
Natgas - Possible H&S playing out taking /NG to 5.20 as part of what looks like a 5 wave correction. this is possibly 3 of 3 here.
Dollar - I think the dollar is in a ABC corrective (contrary to the bigger bulls out there). My target is 89. Nice pop up over the weekend and a 1.10 move up since late last week Another dollar up should not be a problem at this time.
10 year treasury - Moving up pretty strong over the past week taking out some resistance. Should continue.
Mas election is a really big deal. I am going to put my conspiracy tin foil hat on and speculate the front runner republican loses in a tight race, the dems to hold the seat and for a massive vote rigging case to come out of it.
Economic calendar - Barrons.com -
SPX daily chart - I am not gonna speculate for squat this week with the earnings on deck (unless we get on a good count). I don't like surprises. We all know the market looks super toppy and TA is suggesting a significant turn sooner or later. Sorry that is my style. Is the top in? Who the heck knows. EWI has called it again and maybe the third or fourth time is the charm. For their sake, I hope they are right. I don't think we are there yet, but we could be.
Big red candle on Friday breaking some support lines. I would normally be short at this point. I'll wait for form and the correction to get short if that is eventually the place to be. If there is a 3 down to com I want to be in on it. All the indicators here look pretty bad, but then again, they have been sort of range bound to overbought for quite some time. My best guess is pay attention to the lower fibs and support. I have been calling for the wedge pullback for a while and still stick to it. Yews, I am still looking for another higher high. GL!
Oil - 84 to 77 is not good. Esp in one week. May be a bit oversold.
Natgas - Possible H&S playing out taking /NG to 5.20 as part of what looks like a 5 wave correction. this is possibly 3 of 3 here.
Dollar - I think the dollar is in a ABC corrective (contrary to the bigger bulls out there). My target is 89. Nice pop up over the weekend and a 1.10 move up since late last week Another dollar up should not be a problem at this time.
10 year treasury - Moving up pretty strong over the past week taking out some resistance. Should continue.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Let's Rip On Some P3 Tonight!
Back to my roots! Let's bang on some nitty gritty tonight as the stakes are getting higher and the disinfo is getting worse. Seeing thru the numbers and bullshit is what we are looking to do. Uncover the truth. Get the word out to the masses that things are not at all right and getting worse at a pace faster than things are "getting better".
I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.
IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.
Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.
If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."
UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.
In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?
I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.
Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.
I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).
GL trading.
I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.
IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.
Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.
If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."
UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.
In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?
I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.
Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.
I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).
GL trading.
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