Quick Look At UNG

UPDATE - CRUSHED - ouchie. See my first sentence.$3.81 is the 61.8% retracement for /NG. It has entered what I like to call the "retracement zone - the area between the 50 and 62% retracement levels. You UNG lovers may have to wait another month. Not sure where it can get a bid. I guided you to the $4.24 level. Now let's let this thing settle and regroup.

I am not recommending anything before the call. If you do try a long I highly suggest tight stops. You know I do not like the future of NG and where I think the price is going (3.25 to $2.40), but I am anticipating a possible NT oversold pop. I have lowered my target for UNG from $9.50 to the gap at 9.

Be very careful, we have like a billion year supply on NG and many other factors (uh, like a weak economy) do not bode well for the future on NG right now. This is a nasty chart, but I caution it can get worse. If it pops I'll get on board with a pretty tight trailing stop.

Morning Post

Happy St. Patty's Day. Will it be yet another green day for the markets? The minis say the open will be at least. I hope my NCAA bracket can make a run thru the tournament like the bulls have this past week. Talk about peeking at the right time, the bulls have really put it all together and appear unstoppable (well, with a little help from you know who and a lot of friends at FINRA, the SEC, the Fed, Treasury and various large banks and BD's). Don't worry folks this ramp job will become a rim job sooner or later, and the facial that the manipulators get for ramping this market to where it is will be the all time greatest.

I have a question. Let's say St. Patrick pulled a Tiger and went and had relations with a few lucky ladies behind the pot-o-gold. Who would you instill as the new Patron Saint of Green? Paulson, Bernanke, Geitner or another? (Note - if you did not wear green today, please don't be a dork and pin something green to your shirt. That only makes it worse. If the ladies want to know where your green is, ask them to use their imaginations. That is much better.)

One of my favorite videos of all time - Mobile, Alabama Leprechaun Crackhead Pot of Gold

SPX Daily - Sadly if you look at the indicators, this run is not near as extended as the run back thru January. You all know that I am watching for the weekly to turn (which ain't ready quite yet). The RSI 14 on the daily now has a well established support line under it. That will be my first key. The MACD hist is trending down. S Sto is embedded.The slope of the upper BB is little resistance.

It is Opex Wednesday. Anything could happen. That daily indicator chart is screaming a turn at any moment, BUT the defenders of freedom and the American way are on the other side and will fight for justice and truth (OK, now you are supposed to read sarcasm and thru the lines of that last statement). I'm gonna keep nibbling at some shorties with really tight stops. I'm not risking anything long at this point even thought the patron Saint of Green may be in charge today. The Dow is 50 points from a higher high. I think they will push that thru and after that all bets are off.

Dollar - Price is sitting on the lower support line running off the 74 low under the 76 low. There is also another diagonal support line. The daily indicators are close to bottoming. The 60m have set divergences. Looks like a turn could be coming soon. If the dollar/SPX correlation is for real this may help us time the turm and confirm a little more patience is still in order.

Oil - Sabre rattling with Iran has the most manipulated market in a tizzy. Not sure about that run up over the last couple of days, but it left the daily and 60m indicators in a nice divergence. If it should continue to run under normal fears and manipulation 86 should be the max. Any real fears and triple digits will be here in record time.

Natgas - Still looking for $4.24. At 4.31 nowand severely oversold. This thing might be like a coiled rubber band. It may pop big time, but just like a rubber ban it will fall back almost as fast as it went up. Looking for a UNG pop to the 9.50 area it it ever occurs.

Gold - Still climbing. If the dollar reverses so will gold. Problem there is that gold is riding a pretty solid lower TL right now and if that cracks it really falls. I just don't see that yet. I'll call a slow churn up for now.

EUR/USD - A reversal of the EUR should be upon us. They don't want it or deserve it, but that is what the charts say. The weeklys are oversold and turning up. The dailys are toppy. This does not work with what I am seeing for the dollar as I see them both needing to correct upwards. Something has to give. I think the globalists manipulating the currencies will move them where they need to be, so why are we even using TA? Bottom line is our banking system is more fraudulant and has all the chips and theirs sucks and is owned by ours, so I think we strengthen and they remain flat to down.

Don't forget Shanky's NCAA tournament challenge. We're up to 26 entries, so that is a good field. Go to the link. Join the group shanky's blog and the PW is shanky. I'll do a post on this later today.

GL!

Morning Post

Will patience be rewarded today for the bears (at least for those who have been able to remain patient)? Minis down a little over 3 (they were down 5). I have the minis cracking the lower TL of a rising wedge that goes back to the 1084 low. The target for the fall is near 1106. The fibs for the fall are 38% -1119, 50% - 1112 and 62% - 1108. Now all that talk about "falling" might be hogwash as we all know markets do not fall anymore. The 30 and 60m indicators on the minis are bottoming, but you know not to pay attention to those. The dailys are overbought and those are the indicators we're watching here. The C leg of the ABC formation for what I am calling 2.1.3 has completed 78.6% of A so there may be a little more room to climb. 1157 is where C=A.

Economic Calendar - Redbook at 8:55 and then some note auctions make for another quiet day. Tomorrow will be busy, but I am not seeing anything IMO that will cause the market to react to tomorrows news.

A year later - hogwash - a year from what? The time they decided to hand our country over to the blackmailers? I'll ask, has anything good happened other than them creating a false sense of recovery? You might be in store for a good rant today after I have been forced to listen to the MSM spew BS all day.

A quick look at the charts says - 60m SPX rolling over and creating (or continuing even longer) divergences. The weekly chart is showing early signs of cracking. MACD hist is almost positive (we need that for a top IMO). T Sto has a hook. RSI5 is hooking under its upper divergence line. The most interesting is SPXA50 is just under 400 and trying to turn. It like to run to 400 or above and then reverse. It has made it there.


SPX Daily Chart - Little red doji yesterday on uber-lite volume. Smacking the upper BB which should (theoretically) cause resistance. RSI5 is in the nosebleed section and possibly rolling over. RSI14 is right at it's upper divergence line. S Sto look to still have some strength. MACD hist has not turned yet. Those that know my calls, I will look for a combo of the hist turn with a S Sto bear cross. ADX is at a point it has reversed in the past. Bottom line is everyone is in place for a turn but S Sto. Keep an eye on it and remain patient. Some sort of correction is overdue, but how much is the question? Are we completing the corrective or is there one more wave up? I'll play it short with caution and go deep short at the top of wave 2 of the first move south.

Dollar - Range bound for the past few weeks. This is looking more like a corrective flag than the fall I want. If this is a 4 then much more strength can be expected. The daily S Sto got a bull cross yesterday and MACD hist is now turning up, so look out for more strength.
Oil - Daily chart looks pretty toppy. Weekly chart says it can still run, but it is setting a big divergence indicating this is possibly the last of the last for high priced oil (that fits nicely with my thoughts of an impending global economic collapse).
Gold - tough read here as it plays in what might be a corrective above support hanging in a range. Weeklys look weak and the dailys are overbought. I'll go for continued consolidation and then is the dollar rises and the market tanks then gold should fall as well. HERE is a vid from Market Club that I think is pretty good.Wath the use of their trade triangles - it is pretty good.
Natgas - 4.24 is the 50% retracement of the move off of 2.41. There is also support at that level. Daily indicators are embedded on the bottom and the weeklys are still trending down. Pop them more weakness is what I am looking for. that pop will be worth jumping on if you can time it right. Should be close. Natgas report is 10:30 Thursday am. I would not touch it till then.
EUR/USD - Weekly oversold and has completed a 61.8% retracement off of the March lows. It should rally from here. Not much, but it should according to TA. Thus the base. How this fits with the dollar and Greece and where they have to deflate currencies to does not fit. So, I am a little miffed at this pair's direction.

GL out there. I expect to be short before the day is over.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

Morning Post

Don't believe the retail numbers (or the employment numbers). As I have warned, the people you see on TV are doing their best to pump you full of "it". Remember, they do NOT MAKE MONEY if you are not invested. It is their job to keep you in the market. They do not give a darn about your well being. They only care about their next bigger house in the Hamptons.

Some guy named Bryan on CNBS is a total moron. Right now talking about blow out numbers in retail - I think he and Dennis Kneale must have something going on - this meat head just said "as we see housing coming back" - WRONG!. Read Mish's report here on what should be expected for retail. Now, the comps are to a weak '08 period, the the pump masters (with the BLS), a little accounting chicanery and all the QE liquidity can all still lead this market ever higher, but be reassured it will come crashing down one day in the near future. Total systemic failure is coming. Remember we're coming out of an earnings trough where comps could be beaten by a monkey throwing darts.

SPX daily chart - Topping finally? 60m indicators are toast. 30m are on the road south. The last time we were in this position we got a healthy retreat, but remember the weeklys were in full cooperation. This time the weeklys are headed north hopefully getting ready to set the divergenceMinis are flat coming into the open but it should be noted they were as low as 1114, so they have recovered 6 points since early in the morning.

The double top on the RSI5 screams overbought. The double top in the MACD hist with it declining yesterday screams overbought. S Sto is overbought.ADX is not all that inspired. My two scenarios still stand. This is either a throw over of the triangle and the fall will be to 1044, or this is the ending of the first leg up of the second 5 in the 5.3.5 that I have been speculating about and will be the final run to the final top if it is. I took 1/2 short positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday. It is a wait and see game. Sorry I can not be more definitive in the call, but the manipulators have proven that nothing you see is real or can be counted on anymore.

Dollar - Still falling. I think it is toast and the ABC that I called has completed. Here is my UUP chart. If it should continue to run $89 is my upper target.
Oil - Will tensions in the middle east continue to escalate. If they do blow up, we'll find out the hard way that we are to dependent on energy from others in a bad way. Oil is struggling to go higher right now with the dailys topping out.
NG - Near term oversold and I'm looking for a pop here before further weakness. It is sitting on it's 38% retracement right here. 5.21 max pop.
Gold - Climbing in what may be an ABC corrective. Up $100 in a little over a week. 60m headed down and dailys are topping. If the market begins to sell off so will gold I think.
EUR/USD - The pair has hit bottom I think (for now at least). Is it the dollar's turn to get devalued as they systematically work currencies to a point all this debt can be better managed? It has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of the lows in late '08. Looks to me like that was a 3 and now we're gonna get a 4 corrective up. 1.41 would be a good number. HERE is a good EUR/USD vid.

GL! Let's see what the pump machine has in store for us today. The weeklys are not ready to turn just yet, so those all giddy about a turn may have to wait till next week. We'll have to see.

UNG - Dead Cat Bounce Or Worse?

I ususally avoid the politics and some of the more detailed nuances surrounding the UNG trade for good reasons. 1) The forward contracts for UNG that drive price movements, and if a contango scenario exists that can not be overcome nothing good will come of it (see chart below) 2) Politics are brutal and the manipulation of pricing is possible and unfair (based on the stronger pull in Washington). 3) Supply/Demand reality versus fictional truths. 4) There is so much Natgas in the earth scarcity will never be an issue thus keeping prices low.

Here is the most recent Weekly Update from EIA. If you believe the EIA numbers (I don't), you can find all the governments info on Natgas HERE. I also suggest that you learn more about UNG HERE, cause you need to understand the nuances of the ETF before you invest. I think the "roll dates" are very important, and you can learn more about them HERE. My favorite disclaimer from the site, " These risks could result in large fluctuations in the price of UNG’s units. An investor could lose all or substantially all of his/her investment." I think those unfortunate ones that bout it in the $60's agree with that statement.

I know one thing, I believe that Natgas is a large part of America's energy independence and can provide a more earth friendly option to the other two in many cases. Sadly big oil and coal are not ready to allow the new comer into the game. A post by Madhedgefundtrader on Zero Hedge Coal Lobbyists Are Taking a Hatchet to the Natural Gas Industry drives some of these point home. "Their mission is to render toothless Cap & Trade legislation, block subsidies for natural gas which both parties seem to agree on, dilute environmental legislation, and promote the myth that the whole global warming thing is nothing more than a leftist hoax, thus keeping hands off King Coal."

So you have Natgas fighting an uphill battle on multiple fronts. I think that price proves these points. I do not see demand growing for Natgas in the near future. If anything I see if being flat to down based purely on my economic assumption that things are gonna stink for a long time as this depression draws out or enters what I think will be a double dip. I have read forecasts that see the price of Natgas going back to test the $2.40 lowas seen last August (UNG IS dead cat bouncing - /NG has a long way to go yet).




Looking at a chart comparing Natgas and Oil - Natgas re-entered the LT channel up after the drastic fall and is now backtesting the lower channel line. Will it find support here or will it revisit the $2.62 level? The indicators on this monthly chart don't look healthy. RSI is trending down. MACD hist is flat. S Sto and CCI appear to be rolling over as well. Yes, there could be some more pop in this corrective according to the charts, but I don't see it. The main thing you need to notice is the LT relationship to the price of oil. Will that correct and how will it correct? I think oil is coming down to meet NG.  





Comparing Natgas to UNG this chart shows another glaring gap. OK, so what happened to UNG as compared to Oil and Natgas. Why the heck did it not rise like it was supposed to with the other two? Shouldn't it catch up? Well you see there was a massive contango issue. The spot price was near $2 and the Futures were near $5 and, kapow, UNG got hosed. Equilibrium did not make it that month. The spot price only got up to near $3 and that was all she wrote. Now it trades in backwardation where the futures are less than the spot now. No, it should not catch up theoretically. Give UNG a call and speak to an analyst if you like. They are there to help if you need it.

So, what technically does UNG have in store? Here is a daily chart of UNG. Double bottom, check! Falling wedge, check! At a NT support line, check! Indicators on the 30 and 60m with divergences, check! Daily indicators oversold, check! That is a lot of checks! I see near term oversold conditions that should lead to a pop, but not a big one. $9.50 max at this time is all I am willing to go. I also expect more downside. See the box with the ? in it? I first introduced that box in my UNG Popping post back on December 17th (I'll be adjusting it after this post). In that post I also gave you the "watch for hist to turn" note on the MACD hist as a good topping point. Not bad if you ask me. I suggest you look at my weekly UNG chart here and take a good look at the 20ma ($9.74 now) that has been acting like a lid on price. So, after we get some sort of correction that should begin in the next week or so, look for more weakness.


Sorry, but my bearish stance on UNG continues (and it will remain for probably another year if not longer - barring inflation). Bottom line is over supply and horrible economic conditions should dominate the market for the foreseeable future. Don't be fooled by short term pops in the economy. Sure NG may get a pop from all the heating going on in the NE right now, but with 30% usage from consumers and the other 70% from manufacturing and production do you think it will be meaningful? Winter is ending. They have shut down extraction facilities and supply is still near capacity. When the economy truly begins to recover (LOL, my regular readers know how I feel about that) so will UNG. Those hoping for a 6 handle on UNG again can fhugeddaboutit unless we have a hyperinflationary situation that drives commodities thru the roof (I give this a good probability down the road). Those looking for a NT pop, be patient it will come soon. $9.50 target.

Watch the 60m chart and look for price to crack the 20ma and for the RSI's to crack the downtrend lines. I'd also look for some sort of reversal candle on the daily chart. Keep those stops tight and let the trade come to you.

GL!

Morning Post

The minis are entering their first round of resistance points in this area. The next block is around 1113. Minis also at the top of the corrective channel. 30 and 60m getting toppy but the dailys have plenty of room to run.

Earnings Calendar -  Cause you may want to see it.

Economic Calendar - Tomorrow is a busy day with employment and the EIA reports on Natgas and Petrol.

SPX daily - Pretty much just like the minis. 30 and 60m overbought. I'm viewing this move as more of the continuation of the breakout of the red dashed falling wedge. The BB 20ma is toast and the next stop will be the 50ma at 1108 which sits in the retracement zone (box) between 1097 and 1110. The upper BB is back on the chart finally and sits at 1136. The only caution point I see on this chart for the bulls is the RSI sitting at the 50 line. MACD hist has gone positive which means the market can now put in a top. I'll be watching the RSI 5 for preliminary topping signals.Friday I called for 1103 max upside. Let's see if that can hold.

I suggest you keep an eye on this as it falls for a possible reversal signal when it meets price. I was correct in last Fridays buy call and I'm still calling for some more upside. I will caution the longs to keep those stops in place and lift them with the market. This sucker can and will turn on a dime and when it does it can be severe.

More upside than most may be expected if the dollar has completed the ABC I have been calling and it is not in a 5 wave move up.





Gold - is on a tear (up 8.5% in the last week) and possibly has a valid breakout happening cutting thru the upper resistance line with authority. Will it backtest? 30 and 60m indicators have some strong divergences, but the dailys are just getting warmed up. Gold all depends on the dollar. 1135 to 1157 is the retracement zone for this correction (if it is one).
Dollar -The dollar is a tough call. Is it completing the ABC corrective leading to much further weakness now or does it have more steam left in the engine? I like the ABC as being completed, but I think it is going to double ZZ to the 89 area before the plummet. Either way it eventually gets crushed.
Oil - At near term resistance, but in the channel with room to climb.
Natgas - Channeling down and indicators look like more weakness is to be expected.
EUR/USD - Looks like a possible E throwunder near a 62% retracement. That would be a classic corrective completed and some strength should be expected.

GL out there. Nice to be back. I'm gonna be updating charts and posting the beat of what I find.

Morning Post

It all depends on the PIIGS and whether some sort of default is being or has been priced into the markets as to how fast we fall from here. Greece appears to be toast and I'm not sure anyone is going to step up to the plate. If they save Greece, then who's next. they can't save them all. Someone will not have a chair when the music stops playing. It is only a matter of time before some massive meltdown of what I think will be the EU first, then over the next year or two we live in denial as regions begin to tumble one by one. I am becoming more afraid that war may be inevitable and the Mayan calendar may be deserving some merit. More on Greece here.

Economic calendar - Not much I see other than auctions will Wednesday

Earnings calendar - KO and PHM tomorrow. Still a full slate out there, but most of the notables have passed.

SPX daily - Where are we? We are somewhere in 3 of 1 I think.  This may possibly be 2 of 3 of 1. That was a nice pop late Friday that got back 38% of the fall from 1105. There is no question the daily chart remains oversold. I warned of the divergence on RSI 5 on Friday. That is the only thing that looks good on this chart right now. I did my best job a placing the bear market top TL on this chart cause I think it should have some bearing on the markets actions. (Looking at the chart it appears that Stockcharts has inconveniently moves the TL -they do that if you are not careful - It is close - I'll move it back later - just one of the many issues I have with them.)

SPX 60m - The last big pop was led by some huge divergences in RSI, MACD and ROC. Not this most recent one. You know I like to trade the daily indicators. The 60m Can be misleading at times. It appears a channel has formed. On this chart I give the possibility of SPX being in 2 of 1, but that is remote.

I'm expecting choppy to up trading for a few days with a high degree of risk for large downside moves. If we are in 3 of 1 then the third wave has not hit and that will be a ripper. Weekly RSI is at the 50 line just under the P2 support line. SPAX50 is about to hit 100 which has been an extreme oversold reversal area. The bear market top TL was pierced, but held. 960 to 940 is my preliminary target for the bottom of 1. The word of caution is that this puppy can reverse at any moment and very hard. What happens with the PIIGS is key. Let's see what the bulls have left in them. they may be at a point where they have to focus on saving just the banks and not the whole market.

Gold - At the 38% retracement and lower LT channel support line with the daily indicators oversold. 1020 is the next support level. I would not be surprised to see a pop from here to 1085. I expect further weakness as it may follow SPX or the inverse to the dollar (which may continue its rise sooner than later).
Dollar - Big gap at 81.27 up to the 50% retracement at 81.90. Might be in a over throw of a rising wedge and it is overbought.
Oil - Cracked the lower channel line on big volume. Daily it is oversold with everything else. Looking for consolidation or a slight pop.
Natgas - About the only thing that is moving up. Might be a bear flag, but the indicators look good. that could all change with supply though. Indicators say it can go higher.
EUR/JPY - Just got hammered last week. Very oversold.
EUR/USD - In the retracement zone and oversold.

GL!

Morning Post

The reaction to the jobs report may be a big deal, but fear of sovereign default is what is rocking the markets from Gold to the indexes.Employment report down again. 9.7% unemployment. Revision was massive. Fewer jobs and unemployment rate drops? That is NOT good at all. They are dropping off the rolls left and right cause no jobs are out there. Not sure if the BIG revision will get much attention (You know, since the government decided that they have miscalculated unemployment by almost 2 MILLION). ZH provides a deeper look into unemployment here. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%.

I need to update a bunch of charts and get some good information out to you all, so look for a lot of updates thru the weekend.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 and Timmahh speaks again today.

E-mini 60m -Still in the blue channel down. I'll point out the lower yellow TL that was tagged this am and the market reversed off of it. the Yellow horizontal line it the 38% retracement. The futures hit a low of 1050.5 this am and have rebounded massively to 1063 at this time (it was at 1055 since I started writing here - now back to 1057). 1013 is the next major support level. The backtest of the bear market upper TL is somewhere near 1020 at this time.That may be the spot that ends 1. I would not be surprised to see a backtest of the broken green support line near 1085. That may end 2. Then 3 down with the authority to crash back thru the upper bear market TL.

SPX 60m - Is this 2 of 1? Are we still in 3? Is this 4? Was that 5? LOL, bottom line is the indicators and market are oversold. the weekly RSI crossed my dreaded P3 tl and even got under 50 briefly yesterday. Not often I post a count, but here is a shot at it. Although the market is tearing north at this time the market is skating on thin ice. At this point any gains can and will be taken back very quickly from here on out. Sustained gains will be few and far between.  I would like to point out the possibility of a H&S (see red neckline) worth about 35 points. If it should form a right shoulder and reverse keep an eye on that to get a target.I forgot to mention the backtest of the black dashed TL that was th top TL of the original fall.

Gold - I was calling 1066 as the support. It fell hard and stopped at 1059 yesterday, so I will take that. AH it tanked again with the futures to 1051, but had found new life and has rallied back 14 to 1064. Not positive if it will find resistance at this level or not. It will find resistance at 1077 for sure.
Oil - If you go back a few posts you'll find an oil chart. It fell right to the lower channel line and stopped like a bug on a windshield at 72.42. If it cracks the channel,  69 then 65 are the support levels. I do not think it sets any more higher highs, but that is up to the manipulators of black gold to determine.
Natgas - At upper channel resistance with bullish indicators on the daily chart. Looks to be in a mini channel up. Might be a corrective move.
Dollar - Took out the 38% retracement at 80.09 and is sitting on it right now. Might have also experienced a throwover of a rising wedge. Daily indicators overbought. If it was an ABC corrective that may have been it cause C is close to A and the 38% retracement has been hit. I still like 89 as the target.
EUR/USD - experiencing a throwunder of a falling wedge and has gone beyond a 50% retracement of the whole correction. EUR/JPY is way oversold.

Somehow the fear left the market this morning in a hurry. It looks like the currency corrections are overdue and I believe they will lead the markets back up for a period of time. As I mentioned, the market is on thin ice and can literally collapse at any time. All it takes is for one sovereign default and kaboom. I am still riding some shorts that I took most the profit on yesterday late. Not sure if I play long or not.

Geaux Colts - LOL - don't care who wins, I just want a good game. Saturday night at Daytona baby! NASCAR is back! Gotta love it.

Two more registered followers and I crack triple digits. Anyone care to sign up and make that happen?

Have a good weekend.

Morning Post

Another 480,000 lost. When do you think this "norm" will finally catch up with us? Wait till you see the Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures. Did you catch that headline - 1.8 MILLION OVERESTIMATION! I tell you day after day that they are full of shit and you can't trust a damn thing out of them. So we're gonna have a "slight" adjustment that is going to ADD ONE MILLION people previously unaccounted for to the jobless. Does anyone really know the truth? It will implode and it will not be pretty.

Economic calendar - nothing big

Earnings Calendar - Jobs reports and a bunch of other fictitious numbers will be released today.

SPX Daily - Bears came back as expected yesterday. Jobs number sank the futures. The question is are we in 3 of 1 (the major leg down) or is this still the B leg of the corrective. The thought that this could be one last B down of P2 is fading fast. GS and the boys would have to pull their 1,000th rabbit out of the hat and I believe they are out of rabbits. All we can do it wait and see at this point. Lets look to see if it gets to 1087 support. I'm in cash.






Gold - Met the upper TL and reversed. Daily indicators are a little out of whack but are more bullish than bearish. 1066 is massive support. I believe the 1000 level holds for a long time.
Oil - Pulled back yesterday on the numbers. I think this is a corrective and another buying opp will be soon.
Natgas - trending down and it will continue.
Dollar - Popping into an overbought situation. It will need a correction sooner than later.

I'm getting worried. My gut bearometer is spiking. Really not comfortable with the global situation. The dominoes start to fall soon I'm afraid.We'll see this in 3 of 1 of 1 soon and then the fun begins.

GL out there.

Morning Post

National signing day! OK, I am a college football fan of massive proportions. You should be as well. Good luck to your team today. The SEC dominates again with 4 of the top 5 classes. More on this after the bell.

PFE totally got it backwards. Make the revenues and miss the number is not the way to do it these days. What in the world does revenue have to do with anything? I hate tend busters.

Earnings calendar - Most of the market movers are thru now. CSCO after the bell today.

Economic calendar - EIA Petroleum report at 10:30. Timmaah speaks somewhere today I think. ADP is out and we have fewer jobs. The BLS fictional report comes out tomorrow.

Minis are down slightly. May have completed A wave of the correction. Bumped it's head on an upper TL yesterday late. I'm speculating on a slight pullback before more strength. Possibly 1080 area or at least a sideways consolidation before moving on up.

SPX daily - All the 10-60m charts are ready to turn south or are topping as the daily is just really now getting geared up for a move north. Thus, I think we are in the B wave of the 2nd wave corrective. This will provide a risky short play (cause it could just consolidate here and move sideways) before further strength. I have a max low of 1087 and max high in the 1115 to 1120 range. Lots of green circles on that chart below. Be patient. The orange dashed line is a possible path.

Oil - As prognosticated, the rise is on. Petrol report has to say at 10:30. 60m headed south, so I may wait to add when that turns.
Dollar - After trending down for 3 days, something happened at 4:00 this morning that caused it to reverse up pretty hard. Sorry, do not know what that was at this time. Must be Greece.
Natgas - I updated the UNG section last night. It does not look good. Should turn south soon. 
Gold - At a upper downtrend line that should cause some resistance up, but the dailys indicate more strength after this pullback. Possible breakout setup? Hmmm...

GL out there. Down slightly then up. How much up is the big question. I'd hate to see the EWTres eat another top call.

Mowning Post (Elmer Fudd???)

Is momo changing? Did the green team lose the handle and now the red team is picking up the ball? So, are the recently experienced highs the already priced in respectable earnings season we are experiencing? Is the market telling us where we are going at this point? I guess the fear of some sort of REGULATION the market makers may realize the party is over. The pain will be great (especially for the banksters) as we corral the out of control bubble pumping financial industry. The good news is that this purging is necessary for a better future. FINALLY we may be facing the light and the healing may begin.

Mohammed El A of PIMPCO made some good points on CNBS this am about the coming wegulatory pewiod. I'm sowy I missed most of what he said, cause I was laughing so hard at the fact he sounds like Elmer Fudd. Like perfect. I'll find the vid later. He welly stwuggles with his awas. Capitwal wequiments. LOL - sorry. Needed a laugh this am.

UPDATE: As Pwomised. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1392894872&play=1 "We have embawekd now on a pewiod of incweased dewisking, taxing and wegulating banks." I'm not knocking the dude ethnically, just pointing out a similarity I found between him and fwunny cawtwoon chawacta I know. Don't get me wong, I think the dude is brilliant.

The earnings calendar is stoked again today. I have not looked into the numbers, but CNBS is pumping MCD, GE and GOOG as having done well on the earnings front yet the futures are down. This may be one of those moments where you learn that TA is for real. It has an uncanny ability to pwedict things. The topping chawts will not wun on fowevea. A cowection is a must as the market is waaaaaay ahead of its self. Is this the biggie? I'm not sure, if it is not this time it will be the next.

SPX daily - Awe the daily indicatows finally aligned with the staws for a significant move south. We got a good start yestewday. The biggest key to me is that RSI has finally taken out the 50 line that has been suppowt since eawly November. Now there is one more huwdle - the red lower suppowt line that has held up RSI since the low in Mawch. $NYMO is cwanking down and even the ADX gave a beaw cwoss. The daily indicatows have woom to wun south if they can. On the chawt you can see (green box) the wower BB and 50 ma support. 1131 shouwd now be resistance.

SPX 60m  - Bottoming but may embed. We are ovewsold on a ST basis. That can not be awgued. I like the 1053 number as the ultimate tawget for this fall. If it makes it thewe in a nice 5 wave pattern I may concede the top is in. This wegulation issue weally has the mawkets spooked I think. Maybe losing the Bwown election in MA shook the system so bad that WEAL change is finally coming. The other thing I would like to point out is that the wange of this top is neawly the same as the last range bound pewiod.

Dollar - about even with the close yesterday after a volatile drop and rally this am. Will the fall contiwue or was this just a small cowection to further highs? Wooks to me like it was a 4 and we will enter a 5 up soon to take the dollar to 78.80.
Oil - Continuing to fall. 9 days now and over $8 per bbl. There is TL/lowa channel support at $73.
Natgas - As mentioned, tentatively on a support line. Might have had a mini bweak out westewday. Indicators may be weversing mid-stream. I'd exercise caution hewu.
GOLD - bad day yesterday and may have more pain to come. If it cwacks support at 1073 wook out!
EUR/USD - Sitting on the 38% retracement of the climb off of the Apwil wows. If it bounces here look for an ABC.
EUR/JPY - At support, but wemembw I warned about a possible channel down. This is big support here.

Good wuck out thewu and have a gweat weekend!

Morning Post

So we all knew GS would knock the cover off of the ball. The earnings calendar is packed today. AXP reports after the bell. The (un)employment number was worse than expected and rocked the minis about 6 points.

So let's put the pieces together. Jobs suck, banks are not lending, consumer is not spending, business spending is down, but the markets is soaring. Simple, it is called an earnings trough. Market falls to rock bottom. Estimates are set at historically low levels. Companies beat the low bar estimates. The market rewards them. We're comping to '08 numbers still. This trend will end though. The economy will catch up to the earnings next quarter. Missing on revenues for how ever many consecutive quarters will catch up to these companies as well. The coffers are shrinking (definitely not growing).

SPX 30m - Will it move back to 1150 and become range bound or does it have other ideas.After nailing my pullback target, is this a corrective up before further weakness? A 38% retracement has been completed. Based on the lower low, the futures and the daily indicators I have to vote for further weakness. 1118 to 1115 would be a good spot to look for.

Dollar - going nuts with room to run up.
Oil - Pulling back, but still in bullish uptrend channel. Should have further weakness.
Gold - Should be headed south with support at the 1084 level.
Natgas - Pulling back with support at 5.36. Tentatively traveling up a support line. Be careful if it cracks.

10 yr - trending up but at resistance. Not sure how mcu more gas it has in the tank.
EUR/JPY - At a support area. I think this area will possibly break as there is the possibility of a developed channel now headed south.
EUR/USD - Tanking in responce to the dollar's strength. 1.38 to 1.34 is the 50 to 62% retracement area.

GL out there. It is a crap shoot. Juiced earnings but bad jobs numbers. Go figure.

Morning Post

OK, AA disappoints to open earnings season. Here is my AA chart. The WD-40 (WDFC) company reported yesterday as well. I'm quite surprised to see how little interest is in this nearly magical product we use all the time. Duct tape sticks it and WD - 40 loosens it. Guess that is life (They beat with bad revenue).

From Marketwatch - KB Home swings to profit on tax benefit (I'm guessing we'll see a lot of revenue misses - but revenue/schmevenue - who needs it?)

You can find a nice earnings calendar from Briefing.com here. INTC after the close on Thursday will be the next biggie.IF INTC misses A) how do they spin it and B) how far does the market fall?. IF INTC beats - I'd exit shorts as fast as possible.

SPX 60m - Same chart I keep dragging out. The turn is coming, just how big will it be? It just looks like a throwover to me and not a breakout. This should be confirmed this am with the anticipated drop at the open. Watch those three lower TL's and the gap. Also pay attention to the structure (count and shape) of the fall.

E-minis are down 9 at this time. Do we finally get some sort of near term correction?

I think the VIX has had enough. The triangle target of 17.43 was beat, the lower daily BB was blown out and the daily S Sto has run it's cycle and will be busting out soon. 

DXY continues to trend lower. The 1m chart is all over the place and looks like an earthquake hit my screen with some large hourly swings.

Gold left a nice gap yesterday and is getting a daily bull cross on MACD with RSI trending up.

Oil futures are topping according to the daily charts and are just about to test a support line.

Natgas continues its slide and is sitting at breakout support right now. The daily chart says it will continue to fall.

Treasuries are mixed.

GL today.

Look Into The Futures

OK, a minor explosion that will really piss off all those looking for a fall on Monday at the open. the minis (and everything else) seem to be going ape for some reason. Marketwatch reports, "Gold futures climbed by as much as $24 an ounce in electronic trade Monday morning in Asia to touch their strongest intraday level in more than a month, as a further weakness U.S. dollar and strong trade figures from China lured investors." For a deeper look into the China numbers Zero Hedge reports - China's 2009 Trade Surplus Falls A Record $100 Billion 


The e-minis are showing a classic throwover on a strong move to the 1148 area. You all know I have been pointing to 1214 SPX for some time, but now I am beginning to question if the 1350 pundits are right. To be honest, this market will go where they want it to. Looking at the possible count on the minis, this could be a 3 of 3, really. 


The Green wedge is experiencing throwover (or breakout). the yellow divergence line on RSI is toast and the new lower blue support line may have to burst before any further downside can be expected. This means that the divergence that everyone was looking for to set the top may have been a head fake. 

Looking at /YG gold futures breakout. It is quite clear. After putting in a good retracement and getting the gold 950 talk going good, the headfake may be on. this one may be worth watching. 

So they say the dollar is getting crushed. Let's take a look. I would say so. Now, will the correlation return?

And is oil reacting? Yeah, I would say the C store owners will be all giddy about being able to raise the price of petrol on Monday morning. 

And what about NATGAS? Wonder if that cold snap is affecting supply (more than the shutting down of the production)? Ooops, that would be a 10% price plummet since Friday's high with a nice gap down over the weekend. Go figure. 

See ya in the am. Now get some sleep.