Morning Post

National signing day! OK, I am a college football fan of massive proportions. You should be as well. Good luck to your team today. The SEC dominates again with 4 of the top 5 classes. More on this after the bell.

PFE totally got it backwards. Make the revenues and miss the number is not the way to do it these days. What in the world does revenue have to do with anything? I hate tend busters.

Earnings calendar - Most of the market movers are thru now. CSCO after the bell today.

Economic calendar - EIA Petroleum report at 10:30. Timmaah speaks somewhere today I think. ADP is out and we have fewer jobs. The BLS fictional report comes out tomorrow.

Minis are down slightly. May have completed A wave of the correction. Bumped it's head on an upper TL yesterday late. I'm speculating on a slight pullback before more strength. Possibly 1080 area or at least a sideways consolidation before moving on up.

SPX daily - All the 10-60m charts are ready to turn south or are topping as the daily is just really now getting geared up for a move north. Thus, I think we are in the B wave of the 2nd wave corrective. This will provide a risky short play (cause it could just consolidate here and move sideways) before further strength. I have a max low of 1087 and max high in the 1115 to 1120 range. Lots of green circles on that chart below. Be patient. The orange dashed line is a possible path.

Oil - As prognosticated, the rise is on. Petrol report has to say at 10:30. 60m headed south, so I may wait to add when that turns.
Dollar - After trending down for 3 days, something happened at 4:00 this morning that caused it to reverse up pretty hard. Sorry, do not know what that was at this time. Must be Greece.
Natgas - I updated the UNG section last night. It does not look good. Should turn south soon. 
Gold - At a upper downtrend line that should cause some resistance up, but the dailys indicate more strength after this pullback. Possible breakout setup? Hmmm...

GL out there. Down slightly then up. How much up is the big question. I'd hate to see the EWTres eat another top call.

Shanghai Index And Why Is China Pulling Out Of Treasuries?

With so much discussion about China vs. US markets, I thought I would throw the $SSEC vs. the SPX on a chart and see what pops. What I got was sort of interesting. See notes in chart. $SSEC does not look healthy at all on a weekly chart. Just getting pummelled. As with the SPX, I would like to see divergences in the indexes before the big fall. This is a healthy impulsive start to a larger downturn for sure.

On a more sour note for the US debt funding machine the BBC reports that China reduces holdings in US debt. "China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury."

What makes sense is their argument for why. "In recent months the US government's budget deficit has widened thanks in part to the Obama administration's costly stimulus plan. Our correspondent in Shanghai says that China is worried about this, and fears the stimulus efforts will fuel inflation in the US, reducing the value of the dollar. This would then erode the value of the debt China holds in the US currency. In June, China cut its holdings of US securities by about $25bn, a fall of 3.1%." This goes against all thoughts of the dollar bottoming out.

Maybe they just want cash for stimulus. Maybe since they are in a position to directly effect our monetary value, they are in play trying to control the value of the dollar thru treasury withdrawals. Bottom line is they are going in reverse and this will significantly effect the reflation theme that Big Ben and Timmay are pushing. China's withdrawal from treasuries was always near the top of my list of P3 catalysts.

H/T to Barracuda and Master33 from Kenny's commentary for the ideas.

Your thoughts and comments are welcomed.

GL trading.