Morning Post

MCD and KO do well. Ignore them, cause all eyes are on the PIIGS and who else might be invited to play Default Dominoes.

I'm sticking that it all comes down to Greece, the other PIIGS and the EU. Nothing else really matters anymore. The focus is there. The only question is does the thief come in the middle of the night or during trading hours. How much of it is priced in?

The rumors and news surrounding Greece and the PIIGS are insane. Just how much of this is in the control of GS and not Trichet or any other fraudulent government money man.

What was up with the secretive banker meeting in Australia while the G7 was meeting on the other side of the world?

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar -

E-mini 60m - Channeling down (Sky blue lines) after breaking the Green support line that held the market up since June. Reversing near the 38% retracement (yellow line at 1037) of the 862 low. The dailys as expected are pretty oversold and this mornings pop of 9.5 points is not surprising. Any good news will cause a thrust these days and the fact that things in Greece have calmed down somewhat is reason for the dip buyers to get active again.

SPX - I still contend it is fighting off the upper bear market TL. It tagged it again yesterday and reversed. Can it hold is yet to be seen. The daily indicators are struggling to gain ground and remain oversold. The RSI5 divergence tried to give way yesterday, but may be coming home to roost today based on the futures. 1085 is the max if we even get close to that. 1110 is the 68% retracement at this time and the 50 ma on the daily chart. It is only a matter of time before the collapse. As I mentioned earlier, will we wake up to it one morning or will it happen during trading hours.

Dollar - Is it having an overthrow of a wedge? It would be backtesting the upper TL right now if it is. Pretty overbought, but this will not mean anything if a flight to safety occurs. I also think there is a possibility that an ABC has completed, but looking at things politically I believe the rush to safety on an EU breakdown sends the dollar to 89. Then it crashes with everyone else.
Gold - Getting a nice pop this morning. It is oversold and might have a little upside left. A pop to the 1085 - 1090 range may be in order. There is upper channel resistance there.
Oil - Oversold and bouncing off of lower channel support. If this support cracks 65 and 59 would be likely stopping points. I called $55 months ago. That TL and target may have moved.
Natgas - Revesding off of the upper channel line, but at support. Indicators are mixed. So, /NG is in a very precarious spot. Charts are telling me there is confusion among the ng troops, that is usually not a good thing.
EUR/JPY and /USD recovered some yesterday and have been crushed over the past month. As correlated to the dollar, they look to have completed ABC correctives, but given the PIIGS situation, I have to expect worse. If this is a 5 wave move we are in 3 down and should be expecting a 3 of 3 soon.

GL out there.

Morning Post

It all depends on the PIIGS and whether some sort of default is being or has been priced into the markets as to how fast we fall from here. Greece appears to be toast and I'm not sure anyone is going to step up to the plate. If they save Greece, then who's next. they can't save them all. Someone will not have a chair when the music stops playing. It is only a matter of time before some massive meltdown of what I think will be the EU first, then over the next year or two we live in denial as regions begin to tumble one by one. I am becoming more afraid that war may be inevitable and the Mayan calendar may be deserving some merit. More on Greece here.

Economic calendar - Not much I see other than auctions will Wednesday

Earnings calendar - KO and PHM tomorrow. Still a full slate out there, but most of the notables have passed.

SPX daily - Where are we? We are somewhere in 3 of 1 I think.  This may possibly be 2 of 3 of 1. That was a nice pop late Friday that got back 38% of the fall from 1105. There is no question the daily chart remains oversold. I warned of the divergence on RSI 5 on Friday. That is the only thing that looks good on this chart right now. I did my best job a placing the bear market top TL on this chart cause I think it should have some bearing on the markets actions. (Looking at the chart it appears that Stockcharts has inconveniently moves the TL -they do that if you are not careful - It is close - I'll move it back later - just one of the many issues I have with them.)

SPX 60m - The last big pop was led by some huge divergences in RSI, MACD and ROC. Not this most recent one. You know I like to trade the daily indicators. The 60m Can be misleading at times. It appears a channel has formed. On this chart I give the possibility of SPX being in 2 of 1, but that is remote.

I'm expecting choppy to up trading for a few days with a high degree of risk for large downside moves. If we are in 3 of 1 then the third wave has not hit and that will be a ripper. Weekly RSI is at the 50 line just under the P2 support line. SPAX50 is about to hit 100 which has been an extreme oversold reversal area. The bear market top TL was pierced, but held. 960 to 940 is my preliminary target for the bottom of 1. The word of caution is that this puppy can reverse at any moment and very hard. What happens with the PIIGS is key. Let's see what the bulls have left in them. they may be at a point where they have to focus on saving just the banks and not the whole market.

Gold - At the 38% retracement and lower LT channel support line with the daily indicators oversold. 1020 is the next support level. I would not be surprised to see a pop from here to 1085. I expect further weakness as it may follow SPX or the inverse to the dollar (which may continue its rise sooner than later).
Dollar - Big gap at 81.27 up to the 50% retracement at 81.90. Might be in a over throw of a rising wedge and it is overbought.
Oil - Cracked the lower channel line on big volume. Daily it is oversold with everything else. Looking for consolidation or a slight pop.
Natgas - About the only thing that is moving up. Might be a bear flag, but the indicators look good. that could all change with supply though. Indicators say it can go higher.
EUR/JPY - Just got hammered last week. Very oversold.
EUR/USD - In the retracement zone and oversold.

GL!

Morning Post

The reaction to the jobs report may be a big deal, but fear of sovereign default is what is rocking the markets from Gold to the indexes.Employment report down again. 9.7% unemployment. Revision was massive. Fewer jobs and unemployment rate drops? That is NOT good at all. They are dropping off the rolls left and right cause no jobs are out there. Not sure if the BIG revision will get much attention (You know, since the government decided that they have miscalculated unemployment by almost 2 MILLION). ZH provides a deeper look into unemployment here. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%.

I need to update a bunch of charts and get some good information out to you all, so look for a lot of updates thru the weekend.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 and Timmahh speaks again today.

E-mini 60m -Still in the blue channel down. I'll point out the lower yellow TL that was tagged this am and the market reversed off of it. the Yellow horizontal line it the 38% retracement. The futures hit a low of 1050.5 this am and have rebounded massively to 1063 at this time (it was at 1055 since I started writing here - now back to 1057). 1013 is the next major support level. The backtest of the bear market upper TL is somewhere near 1020 at this time.That may be the spot that ends 1. I would not be surprised to see a backtest of the broken green support line near 1085. That may end 2. Then 3 down with the authority to crash back thru the upper bear market TL.

SPX 60m - Is this 2 of 1? Are we still in 3? Is this 4? Was that 5? LOL, bottom line is the indicators and market are oversold. the weekly RSI crossed my dreaded P3 tl and even got under 50 briefly yesterday. Not often I post a count, but here is a shot at it. Although the market is tearing north at this time the market is skating on thin ice. At this point any gains can and will be taken back very quickly from here on out. Sustained gains will be few and far between.  I would like to point out the possibility of a H&S (see red neckline) worth about 35 points. If it should form a right shoulder and reverse keep an eye on that to get a target.I forgot to mention the backtest of the black dashed TL that was th top TL of the original fall.

Gold - I was calling 1066 as the support. It fell hard and stopped at 1059 yesterday, so I will take that. AH it tanked again with the futures to 1051, but had found new life and has rallied back 14 to 1064. Not positive if it will find resistance at this level or not. It will find resistance at 1077 for sure.
Oil - If you go back a few posts you'll find an oil chart. It fell right to the lower channel line and stopped like a bug on a windshield at 72.42. If it cracks the channel,  69 then 65 are the support levels. I do not think it sets any more higher highs, but that is up to the manipulators of black gold to determine.
Natgas - At upper channel resistance with bullish indicators on the daily chart. Looks to be in a mini channel up. Might be a corrective move.
Dollar - Took out the 38% retracement at 80.09 and is sitting on it right now. Might have also experienced a throwover of a rising wedge. Daily indicators overbought. If it was an ABC corrective that may have been it cause C is close to A and the 38% retracement has been hit. I still like 89 as the target.
EUR/USD - experiencing a throwunder of a falling wedge and has gone beyond a 50% retracement of the whole correction. EUR/JPY is way oversold.

Somehow the fear left the market this morning in a hurry. It looks like the currency corrections are overdue and I believe they will lead the markets back up for a period of time. As I mentioned, the market is on thin ice and can literally collapse at any time. All it takes is for one sovereign default and kaboom. I am still riding some shorts that I took most the profit on yesterday late. Not sure if I play long or not.

Geaux Colts - LOL - don't care who wins, I just want a good game. Saturday night at Daytona baby! NASCAR is back! Gotta love it.

Two more registered followers and I crack triple digits. Anyone care to sign up and make that happen?

Have a good weekend.

Morning Post

Good morning. Futures are up a smidge (2.50 at this time). They have pulled back 4 points off of the 1092 high. The minis and SPX are dancing to a different band right now. The minis have broken their major top tl and have broken back above the market support line gong back to June. This should have been a brick wall, but was not. Let's see what happens in the 1104 area if it can get there.

Earnings calendar - AFL goes after hrs today (that would be a hometown ex-employer of yours truly) with MET and TSO. In the am we have PFE, SGP and TWX as a few bigger names roll thru.

Economic calendar - Timmaaaah gets grilled at 10:00 for the next three days. Pending home sales at 10:00 as well.

SPX daily has almost confirmed a st trend change. ADX and a couple others are not at the party yet, but the main playas are there and it should not be long till it gets going. The base at the 61.8% retracement f the run from 1028 is another positive development. Cracking 1087 resistance in the last few minutes yesterday opened the door to 1103. I got a 1/2 position yesterday in SSO.

The chart I share this morning is the Dollar Triangle. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Remember, you saw it here first (well, maybe not, but I have not seen it anywhere else). Looks a lot like P1 doesn't it? This is part of the reason I am looking for an ABC and not a 5 wave move here. My target calls for an over throw of the triangle sometime next year.Of course it is possible that the 40ma throws it back down here and it just runs to new lows. Remember I am pretty biased towards a very weak dollar.

Dollar - topping nt on the daily indicators. It needs a breather. Support at 78.
Gold - Approaching an upper TL that might slow it down some, but I think it is in an ABC wave 2 corrective that might throw it up to the 1150 to 1175 range. Dailys are oversold and turning.
Natgas -  Channeling down but may be oversold somewhat and might pop based on the daily MACD and possible S Sto bull cross.
ERU/JPY - Should reverse here for a pop. Really oversold.
EUR/USD - Looks like a throw under of a falling wedge in oversold conditions stopping just above a 50% retracement. If it does continue to fall 1.3755 should be the max.
Oil - At support and oversold. I'd look at playing a reversal here. USO or OIL might be worth looking into. Do your homework and use stops. Inventory data comes at 4:30 later today.

I'm looking for more upside today and thru the rest of the week. Maybe 1 is complete (if it was a 1). The dollar looks like it is going to confirm the move and remain in concert with the indexes. I'm long 1/2 SSO and looking to add to it and possibly some TNA for the short pop.

Have a good one!

Morning Post

Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Getting this week cranked up early with the futures up over 6 points on the minis. After Fridays sell off and given the overbought conditions, the buyers had to show up sooner or later. Question is, how long will they hang around? Friday's dramatic reversal was a sign of things to come as I believe you have to begin viewing the market as having more downside potential/risk than upside as the tide has most likely turned.

Earnings calendar -Tomorrow is a bigger day as we get into the energy sector.

Economic calendar - Mfg index and construction spending today along with a treasury auction (3 and 6mo)

SPX daily - Remember, the market does not "have to" do anything, looks can be deceiving and beauty is only skin deep. SPX has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of 1028. S Sto is embedding, RSI is at 33.3, The gap on MACD is huge (8pts) and the hist has not turned, ADX is doing it's best Letterman impersonation showing a huge gap, and other indicators are showing similar characteristics. The lower BB is getting abused again. At this time I believe a correction is overdue and downside should be limited simply because of oversold conditions and some divergences on shorter time frames. 1055 is my max downside at this time and if it turns I'm looking at 1101 as the first target and then the gap at 1115. I do not see it moving over the 1131 level at all, but with this market you never know.

Gold - 1066 level has all kinds of support. I do not think this is the time to jump in even though it is pretty oversold.
Dollar - Continues strengthening. Over $5 move in DXY since 11/23 (7%). It is getting overbought but might have a little room to run yet.
Oil -  Sitting on support and the 23.6% retracement (I'll give you charts on all these tomorrow) and it is oversold. This one may warrant some buying attention at this level.
Natgas - Broke TL and support and is channeling down with a short series of lower lows and lower highs. 4.67 is the 38% retracement. It is at 5.13 now.
EUR/JPY -  124.37 is the next support point (and that is a weak one). When it took out 126 that should have been it. Channeling south. Support has now become resistance.
EUR/USD - 139.17 below the 140 Mendoza line. 138 to 135 is the 50 to 61% retracement zone. 136 is where C=A is this is a corrective. If it is a major wave we're in a 3 south.

GL out there!

Mowning Post (Elmer Fudd???)

Is momo changing? Did the green team lose the handle and now the red team is picking up the ball? So, are the recently experienced highs the already priced in respectable earnings season we are experiencing? Is the market telling us where we are going at this point? I guess the fear of some sort of REGULATION the market makers may realize the party is over. The pain will be great (especially for the banksters) as we corral the out of control bubble pumping financial industry. The good news is that this purging is necessary for a better future. FINALLY we may be facing the light and the healing may begin.

Mohammed El A of PIMPCO made some good points on CNBS this am about the coming wegulatory pewiod. I'm sowy I missed most of what he said, cause I was laughing so hard at the fact he sounds like Elmer Fudd. Like perfect. I'll find the vid later. He welly stwuggles with his awas. Capitwal wequiments. LOL - sorry. Needed a laugh this am.

UPDATE: As Pwomised. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1392894872&play=1 "We have embawekd now on a pewiod of incweased dewisking, taxing and wegulating banks." I'm not knocking the dude ethnically, just pointing out a similarity I found between him and fwunny cawtwoon chawacta I know. Don't get me wong, I think the dude is brilliant.

The earnings calendar is stoked again today. I have not looked into the numbers, but CNBS is pumping MCD, GE and GOOG as having done well on the earnings front yet the futures are down. This may be one of those moments where you learn that TA is for real. It has an uncanny ability to pwedict things. The topping chawts will not wun on fowevea. A cowection is a must as the market is waaaaaay ahead of its self. Is this the biggie? I'm not sure, if it is not this time it will be the next.

SPX daily - Awe the daily indicatows finally aligned with the staws for a significant move south. We got a good start yestewday. The biggest key to me is that RSI has finally taken out the 50 line that has been suppowt since eawly November. Now there is one more huwdle - the red lower suppowt line that has held up RSI since the low in Mawch. $NYMO is cwanking down and even the ADX gave a beaw cwoss. The daily indicatows have woom to wun south if they can. On the chawt you can see (green box) the wower BB and 50 ma support. 1131 shouwd now be resistance.

SPX 60m  - Bottoming but may embed. We are ovewsold on a ST basis. That can not be awgued. I like the 1053 number as the ultimate tawget for this fall. If it makes it thewe in a nice 5 wave pattern I may concede the top is in. This wegulation issue weally has the mawkets spooked I think. Maybe losing the Bwown election in MA shook the system so bad that WEAL change is finally coming. The other thing I would like to point out is that the wange of this top is neawly the same as the last range bound pewiod.

Dollar - about even with the close yesterday after a volatile drop and rally this am. Will the fall contiwue or was this just a small cowection to further highs? Wooks to me like it was a 4 and we will enter a 5 up soon to take the dollar to 78.80.
Oil - Continuing to fall. 9 days now and over $8 per bbl. There is TL/lowa channel support at $73.
Natgas - As mentioned, tentatively on a support line. Might have had a mini bweak out westewday. Indicators may be weversing mid-stream. I'd exercise caution hewu.
GOLD - bad day yesterday and may have more pain to come. If it cwacks support at 1073 wook out!
EUR/USD - Sitting on the 38% retracement of the climb off of the Apwil wows. If it bounces here look for an ABC.
EUR/JPY - At support, but wemembw I warned about a possible channel down. This is big support here.

Good wuck out thewu and have a gweat weekend!

Morning Post

Christmas week and with me skiing in Colorado next week there is no telling what you will get from me between now and the end of the year. If something happens, I'll be here. If not, I'll be enjoying the holidays. You should too! We got Xmas kicked off early and the kids got some big presents from the family - GUNS! That's right, 28 gauge single shot shotguns. (My boys are 7 and 9). We shot all weekend and should be able to have them ready to defend the southern border of the homestead by mid summer if necessary.

 
 
The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.

A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart. 

SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.


I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.

That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.

GL and happy holidays.