Morning Charts 09/07/12 SPX /ES

I'm tired of talking about bailouts that will never work, promises that government's can't keep and markets that can never fall because of the backstops that exist. We  were confused yesterday by the dazzling EU bailout propaganda (no solutions, just rhetoric that sent price action on a meteoric rise). Today they dazzle us with a jobs miss that is great news cause it increases the Fed's odds of easing.

Did you catch that? The jobs miss was a good thing. It was something to celebrate cause it may cause the Fed to release trillions more to support or raise the markets. So releasing trillions more on top of the $16 trillions we can't afford to pay back in the first place is totally awesome? Did you catch that? It "MAY cause" the Fed to ease. Like a Draghi promise, all it takes these days is the mere promise or hope that more easing will come and the markets react accordingly ramping to new heights.

Chartapalooza 08/24/12 Dollar, Oil, well .... Everything

I need to churn out some individual detailed reports on the below. I'll see if I can get to that next week. Let me know what you want to see.

Read 'em and weep -

Dollar - I suspect our fiat gets one last pop when the Euro fails. That will piss off uncle Benny, but that's too bad. He'll get his wishes of mega devaluation sooner than later as they MUST devalue to support the exponentially expanding debt of the country. A crash is coming but not till after the Euro failure, rush to safety (LMAO) pop I suspect the failing reserve currency gets. I still think you will live to see the dollar with a $4 handle. Dollar sits at channel support and multi-year s/r  at $81. That's a very important level.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/01/12 #SPX $ES

May Day - for those that do not know about May Day I suggest you read May Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  "As Europe became Christianized the pagan holidays lost their religious character and either changed into popular secular celebrations, as with May Day, or were merged with or replaced by new Christian holidays as with Christmas, Easter, Pentecost and [[All Saint's Day][citation needed]]. In the twentieth century, many neopagans began reconstructing the old traditions and celebrating May Day as a pagan religious festival again."

So, we advanced from pagan celebrations to Christian ones. That is a bit symbolic of these times except we seem to be doing the reverse. Our government is truly corrupt and the police state is growing more each day stealing our freedoms one by one. We as sheeple appear to be less reverent than in the past now worshiping the golden idols of debt and credit.

We no longer primarily serve God. We serve ourselves in our quest for the easy life. Toil has been replaced by entitlement. It appears that the masses are more than willing to choose the easy route, entitlement, in exchange for loss of freedom.

I Don't See Any Problems. Do You?

It is perfectly normal for the SPX not to react at all to pretty severe moves in the dollar, gold, oil and the 10 year treasury. Perfectly normal. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Morning Post

E-minis set new high last night to catch up with everyone else. The RUT finally caught up with everyone else in new high land. After lagging horribly coming into December, down the stretch they came after turn four and RUT hit the turbo boost and appears to want to pass everyone in the final quarter mile. The consensus appears to want everyone to end the year in high style.

Looking at SPX compared to the dollar, oil, TNX and gold here. SPX holds it range and its high as everything else appears to be making the necessary adjustments to their unrealistic conditions.

The VIX daily decided to (not surprisingly) set a new low yesterday. I'm not really sure what to say other than the fear index is not accurately describing the fear that should be evident. IMO this chart best describes the fantasy land scenario we are experiencing now. Combine this with the overall bullish sentiment and you get the recipe for the much anticipated impending correction.







I have no idea what to expect or to call at this time with the SPX range bound, slightly setting a new high yesterday (my upper range all along was 1050 to 1121), meeting resistance at the upper BB and the daily RSI not making any decisive moves. I'm on the sidelines and enjoying the holidays. I'm not ruling out the possibility of anything up or down right now. I'm seeing counts that have tops set or being set and some with a good bit of upside to them. I don't trust any of the counts right now (I don't trust anything right now actually). My suggestion is to wait for the market to come to you. If there is a decisive break north, then 1214 is my target area. If there is a decisive break down, let's watch the form and see what it has to offer. I'm sticking to my call all along that it will take an "external event" to rip this market from Ben, Timmuhh and the gang. Will a big hedge fund or some mutual funds blink before year end in this game of high stakes chicken they are playing or will they take this thru the first quarter earnings period?

Happy holidays and good luck.

E-minis Now (And Some Long Term Stuff - Call It A Chart-o-rama)

/ES - Daily - Blue wedge is the P2 bull market rising wedge that price is obeying. Black TL coming down is the bear market top line. Pink is the old gap from 1107 tp 1109 that seems to be the resistance point. Green is the new support line IMO. I hate the look of that hook up in the indicators that stopped dead what should have been a good run to the bottom for the indicators (can you say PPT?). E-minis within one half of a point of a double top (or new high) this hour.

/ES 60m - See the action in the blue wedge and resistance at the pink line. 60m indicators are topping here. That combined with the resistance and double top might be cause for a reversal. Of course the dailys will have to whipsaw for this to happen.

/ES weekly so you can see the bigger picture. I do not (as a bear) like that busted divergence line on the RSI. I believe P3 begins at or near the break of the gray trendline below RSI.Notice how overbought the weekly indicators are. It is only a matter of time before they let go. Looks like MACD will be the most reliable indicator.

DXY weekly - So what is supposed to happen when a falling wedge ends and the indicators are all oversold and have been for months? LOL, this chart looks like UNG - that's not all that funny when you think about it.

A picture tells 1,000 words. What happens when the dollar falls? That would be TNX, SPX, Oil and Gold up and dollar down. Hmmm....you think the inverse is true? Watch for a crack in that 40ma.

 

Want to see a nasty divergence? Look at RSI in this SPX yearly chart. Uh, yup, no one saw this fall coming. LOL. Now, is that a yearly hammer bouncing off of support and the 20ma? Not sure. Those indicators look like crap. MACD just now getting the bear cross from the run up since 1980. It's got a little steam to blow off yet. This is NOT a pretty chart if you are a bull.Dig where that lower BB is. Ouchie!

Now, before you bears start jumping around and ripping your clothes off in a fit of joy after looking at that last chart (GWLK -pls send photos this comment does not apply to you), you have to survive this next one - SPX Monthly. Those indicators need some work to turn. The weeklys are set to help with this process.






No post tonight as I will be holding up street signs again and then coaching basketball and finally decorating a tree - then sleeping. I might get the Look Into The Futures post done. Thanks for the views and happy holidays.