Shanky's AUD/JPY Update

Well on 06/01/12 in the Shanky Does the AUD/JPY post, I left you with this chart and this description -

"And there you have it - extreme LT support. Can they hold it here or does the inevitable happen. This is their breaking point and must be defended here.

Morning Post 10/04/11, SPX, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Oil, USD

"Overnight saw credit markets crushed overseas in Australia and Asia,
Europe continue to sink into the abyss and now pre-market equities in
the US are showing serious weakness with no sign of a bounce." FINal(er) Countdown | ZeroHedge

I'm not sure how long I have been telling you i is all about EU liquidity, but it has been a while. Nothing works without lubrication. Friction is bad. European Liquidity Update: Horrible And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge

I do not know about you, but I think there will be a tradeable event at 10:00 when Helicopter Ben speaks. I HIGHLY suggest you watch this - Bernanke Testifies To The Joint Economic Committee; And The Balance Of D.C. Theater For The Week | ZeroHedge

FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF

Don't forget to vote in the new poll ======>

I don't so these all that often, bus since I am tired of talking about all the downgrades and lies about salvation, and since I have not covered most below in some time ..........

Note - all the below should scare the hell out of you (and I am not including the markets). This looks like epic collapse and no stick save option is available.

Welcome to Chartapalooza!

/dx - US dollar - Breaking out above long term down trend. After a 40% devaluation off the 2001 highs you had to figure a rally would have to occur at some point, right? How great is the fear around the globe right now? Well, if they are flocking to the greatest fiat on the planet, that would conclude your lesson on how this global economy is the greatest farce ever manufactured. $81 and $88 are the best two targets here if this improbable run can continue.

Morning Post

Fed day today. Ya think they are gonna surprise and raise rates? I doubt it. With 1mo treasuries yielding zero and the equity markets the only play in town where any money can be made, why screw up a good thing? (ghood thing for whom can be debated) They will have to raise them eventually, but I'm not going to hold my breath. CPI and housing numbers are being spun on CNBS. So are you in the deflation of inflation camp? I think we deflate first with some signs of specific pricing pressures that eventually leads to inflation. Its like having a bad tooth that you know needs to be extracted, but you don't want to face the surgery. You deal with the pain and deal with the pain, yet eventually you will have to go under the knife.

SPX daily- I just do not know what it will take to get this market out of this trading range. BB width is 29. That is under 30 folks. That is 15 up or 15 down is all you are theoretically gonna get. Narrow BB's usually lead to volatility, so I still expect a breakout one way or the other. CCI may have topped and RSI stopped at the blue divergence line. Now RSI is running in a range between the 50 line as support and the upper divergence lines getting pinched down. I'm not sure how long it can stay in this range. At this time I'm leaning to a push south to the 1085 level.

SPX 60m - This chart says fall, but I would caution bears to look out for the 1103 level where the 50ma and the lower BB sit. If that cracks the bears may be in business.See my 15m chart for the most detail on fibs, TLs and S/R.









E- minis - Up 4.5 at this time and were as high as 1112 overnight. Currently 1108. Trading at the upper end near resistance of the upper resistance line of the past few weeks and backtesting the lower P2 support line. So that should be a double doozie.

DXY - Ending a rising wedge and should rollover here. The daily indicators are getting pretty toppy.

Oil - If you look at the chart I showed yesterday am, you will see the lower channel line held and there is a good chance it is going to pop from here. I'll do an energy post today I think.

Natgas - /NG futures have moved above NT resistance, but will that move hold? Indicators are a little toppy with a divergence in RSI showing upside should be limited from here. I'll get a UNG post out soon.

/ZN 10yr treauries futures - looks like an ABC corrective is just about complete and the daily indicators are about to show some buy signals.


EUR/USD continues to fall and has taken out all support lines I have. Daily indicators are embedding on the low end. I think the 1.51 high is set.

EUR/JPY - Holding the 128.50 support. We'll know more in January when it nears it's upper TL.

Inflation? Frozen Concentrated OJ - No there has not been a big freeze. Like I said- It will and is happening in specific areas, thus not the perfect storm. This chart demonstrates there is some inflation out there.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Morning Post

Good morning!

SPX 15m -  The boom, boom, boom chart from Sunday. Fib targets, supprt and resistance, the gap and the fibs are viewed really well on this chart. Let's see if the trend holds and if GWLK (BSLS) likes it better today? The 60m looks as toppy as this chart, but the daily may be telling a different story. It needs to turn here or soon for the bears.

Gold daily - decided to take an $8 plunge last night. I am not sure if that is a channel down (green) or not, but I drew it as one. I backed the chart out so you can see the support levels better. Green, sky blue and gray lower TL's are all valid. The yellow line is the 38% retracement off of the 809 low and may be the ultimate target for a meaningful pullback at 1066.

Dollar 1hr - You can see the breakout of the pink falling wedge that led the bull market. I am not positive that the proper backtest has occurred. The gray wedge form is ending and a pullback would be in order. Is the green TL a target ot the blue one? How will the markets react to the dollar correcting this move? Will the somewhat broken correlation correct, or are they somewhat independent now? The retracement levels from here off of the 74.17 low are 38% - 75.97, 50% - 75.66 and 61.8% - 75.34.

EUR/JPY daily - Seems to have found a happy place for now around 128.50 as it either remains range bound or as the gray falling wedge plays out.

Oil daily - I updated all of the energy sector in my chartbook yesterday and there looked to be some potential technical buys in there. With oil futures possibly holding the bottom of this channel (MACD hist turning up and RSI as well) maybe there is something to look at here. XOM on weakness from the deal yesterday might be worth keeping on the radar as well.

Natgas daily - just slightly taking out the upper resistance. Now, this can be stretched a little higher, a real breakout may be happening. I'm not all that convinced, but it is possible. gray boxes are gaps and the yellow rectangle is the retracement zone from 3.91 to 3.56. 





GL today and happy holidays.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

DXY daily- Showing the yellow triangle and the pink bul market falling wedge. The backtest is complete. Now can it crack that upper yellow resistance line? Dollar is flat now in overnight trading which is somewhat surprising.

/ES E-mini daily (S&P futures) - Pink is bear market top line. Red is P2 bull market support line. Sky blue is nt support line. All that adds up to a lot of support esp when you throw in the 50ma helping to hold things up.

/YG Gold futures daily - Rising wedge rising out of a bull market rising wedge. Attempted breakdown with RSI where it is and the 50ma below may mean a good pullback is in order sooner than later. Tellow are the 398% fib and the yellow box is the 50 to 61% fib retracement zone.

EUR/USD daily - Yellow rising wedge rolling over into the light blue channel. Does the 50ma and the yellow support line hold? Tough call, but if you back the chart out you can see the trouble the EUR/USD is in.

 
EUR/JPY daily - With the green and yellow trendlines possibly going trouble may be here sooner than later.

 /NG NATGAS 30m - A possible channel and the pink line is support. 

Oil  daily - riding the 50ma with 4 support lines under it. Might be hard to bring down I'd say.




Kind of quiet out there tonight.  GL trading.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I'm toast, so much for having fun putting up all the Xmas stuff. More like a battle royal around my home. Well, it is almost over and I can commence to enjoy the season.

No Dubai surprises to look forward to in the am, but there are still 12 hours till the opening bell. Amazing how that was shaken off like a bad tackle. That is just a little taste of what is to come. If they are having CRE problems, just wait for ours to hit. It is only a matter of time. I still don't think they will let anything happen to the market (that they can control) till Xmas shopping season is done.

E mini 60m - Looking back on a 60m thru Thursday. ED down and a rising wedge up. Not much change from the close Friday. RSI is high and the 61.8% retrace is met.

DXY daily - Looking at the descending triangle (yellow). The only hick-up is the throwunder at the yellow circle. Looks to be nearing an end of the consolidation period. That top trendline is pretty solid.

 
Gold - /YG daily - I stretched it back this time so you can see the rising wedge and the possible throw over. Yellow box is the retracement zone and the yellow line is the 38% retrace. Looks like 1085 will be a good target soon if not worse. They were surprisingly dumping gold as well Friday morning which should be noted.

Natgas daily - RSI is toppy and resistance is near. I'd be cautious if I were long here. I do NOT trust any counts on this one at all.

Oil - /CL daily - backed this one out as well. Yellow channel. pink channel and red support line. Gobs of support plus the 50ma. Yellow box is the retracement zone and thick yellow line is the 38% retrace.

EUR/JPY daily - broke green TL handily, but struggled to close under hte lower yellow wedge support. This thing almost puked all over the place Friday. Sign of things to come?

EUR/USD daily - Just riding the lower yellow trendline and the 50ma all the way up. I think the blue channel is more in play now than the yellow, but we'll have to see about that. If the 50ma goes this one will tank to the gray box.




Have a good night and GL this week. Happy holidays.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

/ES 60m - Minis are up 3.50 at this time (8:22p est). Looks like a completed 5 wave move down and a break up above the upper trendline (sky blue) after completing a 76% retracement of the last wave up. Most are counting this as 1 of 1 of P3 and we are beginning 2 up. I'm not all that sure about that, but I'm not discounting it. 

DXY 60m - Almost completed a 76% retracement of the last move just like the minis. Looks like a good move south coming is possible if the backtest of the Green wedge gives way. Testing the yellow dashed trendline with the sky blue rising wedge support just below.

/CL Lt Sweet Crude daily - Channeling up and now channeling over (pink). The green trendline catches a lot of common tops and bottoms. Red lines are major support. The yellow line is the 38% retracement and the yellow box is the retracement zone (50 to 61%).

/NG daily - Looks like a possible break of the downtrend line afterstalling at a 38% retracement.

/YG Mini gold Futures 60m - BIG GAP UP to the top wedge line (gray rectangle).

EUR/JPY daily - Testing lower support while wedging sideways. If green support gives way it should fall all the way to the lower wedge support.

EUR/USD daily - Riding lower channel support line (yellow channel) being held down buy resistance (upper red). The 50% line of the blue channel is providing support here as well. We'll know for sure soon if the blue channel has taken over or not.

You may want to read this - Bills Yielding Zero as Stocks Soar Make Bernanke’s 1938 Moment - from Bloomberg. 
"For the first time in seven decades, Treasury bills are paying no interest while stocks continue to appreciate -- a divergence in U.S. financial markets that might be perilous if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn’t know all about 1938.
That’s when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 25 percent even as bill rates tumbled to 0.05 percent from 0.45 percent. As 1939 began, stocks began a three-year, 34 percent decline after the Fed increase borrowing costs prematurely to stymie inflation that never materialized.  Sounds like we know the playbook he is using.



GL trading this holiday week. I'm not sure of anything other than continued low volume and a possible push higher. I am a little leery of some sort of surprise announcement during the slower holiday weeks.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

Charts are from 11:20 est.

/NG daily - So, you tell me which gap it is after? The yellow box is the fib retracement for this last climb.

DXY 60m - She's got a spike! I'll get interested when that upper green TL goes down.Remember that gap analysis I spoke of today?

/YG - Mini gold 60m - Is that a H&S forming with a 1111 target? If not the retracement zone is the yellow box and the 38% retracement is 1104.You can see the set up for the breakdown I called, now can it get worse?

EUR/USD daily - Nice channel and riding a support line and at resistance. You see the fib retracement box just under support at 1.38. Other support at 1.43. This is an interesting set up.

EUR/JPY daily - Will the green line hold or will the wedge support be in play?





Nothing happening with the e-minis. Down 1.25.