Friday, July 6, 2012

Morning Charts 07/06/12 $SPX $ES

Well, believe what you want from the NFP numbers. As most know now I firmly believe that any number coming from our fascist totalitarian government can be trusted as much as the information flow from China. The miss in the NFP number can be interpreted with only one item in mind, QE.

This along with the dreadful economic numbers posted over the past few months will allow the Fed some more wiggle room as we head towards that moment when the Fed will ease again one day, cause there is no other option to keep the banks alive. Forget the economy. Easing has nothing to do with the economy. It is all about keeping the banks alive and the markets elevated.

I am not sure if they will ease before the election or not, but I think the odds are good they will have to. There are roughly 5 months to the election. The Government is slated to run out of money again this summer. The EU is in shambles. Current market levels do not necessarily show the stress necessary. I'm still looking to the 1170 area on the minis (let's say 1220 or below) before the Fed starts to add ink to the presses.

Minis 4hr - the 1374 high that I was willing to give this run was met and the reversal off of the upper wedge resistances at that point can be seen. 1341, 1333 and 1327 are the three key support levels you need to keep an eye on. They are all biggies.

/ZN - TNX is still overthrowing the multi-year rising wedge indicating this is some serious nosebleed territory and a massive reversal is to come.

BTFD/STFR Chart - I showed this yesterday and it is screaming reversal. I may add the MACD Hist to this chart as it is my fav third early warning indicator. Note the average falls from these setups in the past. The one thing this chart surely says is that buying here would be suicidal. It is obvious that anything over 1360 is not a happy place.

Everyone enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

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