Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Morning Post 07/31/12 SPX /ES

Quick post as I have a friend running for reelection in the state house. and I have to do some things for him this morning.

I've been watching the poll results to the right closely. We are seeing a clear divide in the board's thoughts on when this fiasco finally ends. Of course I am one of the few in the 9-12 month range that sits in the middle, go figure. August and September will be huge months for the markets and then we roll into the election, Christmas and the tax sunset with a new congress (and hopefully president). Shall we throw Greece, Spain and Italy's issues into that pot? Not a good recipe for the months ahead.

Let's look at a few charts. Yes, I stick to my contention that the charts will deliver the turn. Numbers never lie (except for those generated by government agencies and those generated by institutions supported via government funding). Intervention is alive and well. We all know the clock is ticking and that the central planner's backs are to the wall right now. I still like the 1220 first target then 1170.

CPC - closing in on what should be the sell 'em level. Note the red line just below price that has reversed this chart in the past.

Bullish percent - This chart is getting nasty as along with CPC the bulls are not looking all that convincing, thus behind the curtain things don't look so hot.

BTFD/STFR Chart - This is my moneymaker and it is really stressed out right now. I believe we are seeing a blow off top.

The doji yesterday and the upper daily BB resistance combined with price above the 1375 level should continue to keep a lid on upwards price action. The Fed also need for price to fall not rise.

Patience, the tide will turn soon. Lies and false promises can't keep this market afloat forever.

GL and GB!

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