Monday, April 23, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/23/12 - SHTF Edition

As mentioned this morning, all the charts are finally adding up to an increasingly narrowing point where it appears some major event is about to happen. TA is there across many markets. The stars are aligned.

The Russian Market being closed today would make for a nice first domino. French elections, Greece elections, Dutch resignations, EU non easing, Fed non easing, AAPL miss, MENA, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Syria, China ... I could go on and on. We're one 'event' from a tidal wave of erupting the emotional powder keg that is global tension.

Weekly Indicator Chart - (Best viewed at the link) - I'm looking at the last three major tops and none of them turned on a dime. They all gave us at least one major corrective and rally to a higher high before the ultimate collapse. I'm not saying that has to happen here. I like the right shoulder being complete and the ultimate top being set for the three phase 'recovery' that was not really a recovery. Look closely at the chart below off the 667 lows and see what $27 trillion can do for a market (and banksters wallets) in an economy that is turning to dust. Green Dashed lines would be an optimal fall scenario for me.

The market today is more rigged and under the influence of the 'powers that be' more than anytime in history. The global calamity that would follow a collapse would be more devastating than any in history. Twist is ending in June. Can they pull off one more higher high? There is only one way a higher high can happen. I get my 15 to 20% corrective and then comes QE3 (or Twist2 or some form of liquidity under another name) or they just announce more easing here to totally avert the collapse (in the election year).

For you that doubt the collapse to come and think I'm nuts, please read  EPIC FAIL – PART ONE - Washington's Blog  "The acceleration of debt accumulation and money printing guarantees this rotting carcass of a country will go belly up in the foreseeable future." This is one of the best single all encompassing posts about where we stand (with charts and full documentation) and why the course is unsustainable that I have seen written.

For another well written view of why this 'recovery' will be an epic fail, please read, "This was not an accident.  It was and remains a public and intentionally-covered up fraud.  The coverups came in the form of the housing bubble, massive offshoring of labor and exploitation of both environment arbitrage and effective slave labor overseas along with currency and interest rate manipulation and bank credit fraud of unprecedented size." Europe Isn't Over Folks in [Market-Ticker]

You see things are not as they appear. Take earnings season for example. "22% of the Q1 earnings season (by market cap) is over, and anyone listening merely to soundbites and reading media headlines would likely think that stocks have soared as a result of a relentless parade of beats. One would be mistaken. In fact, as the chart below shows, there is something very wrong with this earnings season... The Most Surprising Chart Of Q1 Earnings Season So Far | ZeroHedge I tell you all the time (and have shown disparities in headlines the mornings of the release) not to listen to the MSM or the propaganda driven CNBS.

Fleeing does not do justice to describe how individual investors are leaving this market. "Sure enough, in the past week, $1.5 billion was withdrawn from domestic equities. Instead, cash, solely with the aim of capital preservation enter taxable bond funds, as it has for the past 3 years now. With the latest redemption, total 2012 flows to date are over $25 billion, or more than double the comparable amount in 2011." Retail Investors Ignore "Generational" Opportunity To Buy Stocks One More Week | ZeroHedge

I suggest that you pay attention to Spain, very close attention. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Eight of Ten Largest Stocks in Spanish Ibex Index Below Liquidation Value; Madrid Rejects Regional Budgets Representing 32.5% of GDP; Treasury Warns of "Immediate" Intervention is a good read that puts things into perspective. Well, one way of looking at one aspect of a very bad situation.

More charts in the morning. I'll get back to the old format AD's soon. I have a lot to bitch about. When you are losing your country and liberty of a corrupt bought and paid for government that is moving a fast as possible from a constitutional republic to a fascist state it tends to piss me off.

GL and GB!

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