Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/11/12 $SPX $ES

A brief lull after AA before JPM Friday. Here is the earnings calendar - U.S. Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Bloomberg. you should keep a close eye on what's coming and when especially the TBTF's and AAPL. At this time I suspect the whole market, no matter how bad things are may hold up waiting on Apple (I'll do a post on that closer to the release).

Right now the main things is the rain in Spain. Bloomberg TV this morning could not get enough of the "next Greece". Apparently they are the only ones as everyone else wants out of Greece. As we've discussed here since the PIIGS were identified, the end will not be a pretty sight. We've only moved thru the G and have 5 more larger problems to come. No need to rehash the debt crisis. The bottom line is nothing can work and the more money they throw at the problem only extends and pretends that all will be well again one day when it won't. The fuse is lit. The only question is how long does it take to ignite the source?

A quick look at the dollar - LT Yellow channel support and 78 support area have held for now. ST blue channel up running into green diagonal resistance at 80.25 resistance. Really a key moment as the dollar is set up to either break out to test recent highs or if yellow channel support breaks a move to 76 and then 74 will be in order. 

EUR/USD - Yellow channel down where upper resistance tried to crack but held. Green diagonal support at 1.2675 is the LT support from the '02 lows running under the '09 lows. that is a BIG number right there. With the continued printing and further weakening economies one would suspect this to be busted sooner than later. The monthly 200ma is at 1.203 and lower pink channel support is near 1.895 support. STB has had a 116 target for well over a year now if not longer. If you want a closer view of this chart ask in the commentary and I'll tweet it. 

Gold - holding yellow channel support off the '08 lows. Yes, that is a 4 year channel indicating very LT historic support. There is a white channel possibility as well and you see that lower support as well. Green channel into yellow support here. Another key point looking a lot like the EUR/USD situation above. All it will take is for the EUR to break down for gold to go up. The monthly MACD on gold does have a very high bear cross that should be noted. that could lead to some sort of pullback, but for you LT holders of the shiny PM do not fret. STB is in the gold/DOW parody camp if the ratio does not even surpass that to a large degree. This will only create a better buy opp. 

SPX 30m - TRIN screaming buy and guess what you get? 

Minis - Tagged pink support and has reversed like clockwork. I wanted 1340, but my first target that I have been discussing for at least a week if not longer was met. The HnS played out nicely to the target and now a backtest possibly as high as 1386 could be expected. Let's watch 1373 first. More on this in the comments below. 

GL and GB!

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