Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/10/12 - Market Review

Well, earnings season is off . Here is your calendar U.S. Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Bloomberg. AA today, "The largest U.S. aluminum producer posted first-quarter earnings excluding items of 10 cents per share, down from 28 cents a share in the year-earlier period. However, the number beat analysts' expectations: The consensus estimate called for a loss of four cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters." Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season With a Big Beat - US Business News - CNBC. As usual with CNBS the truth is always exaggerated in the headlines. So off .18 cents from a year earlier but beat a loss of .04 cents - really? That is a wide window and favorable beat. (futures drifting north to 1360 after the close)

STB used to like to talk about earnings cycles and low and high bar hurdles. Earnings used to be a season that was predictable when markets were real and cycles were part of a normal progression of the markets. Not any longer. Now the Wall St analysts set the bar wherever it needs to be. If they get that wrong they revise without penalty into a market being constantly lifted by QE. When the beat hits, CNBS and the controlled MSM cheerleaders go nuts and throw it all in your face. Get out there and buy baby or you will miss the run!

No telling what the banks will come up with this quarter. They pull out of their ass accounting department whatever they feel they need. Whether it be Repo 105 or some other form of manipulation (lately the CVA - Credit Valuation Adjustment) it will always generate a meet or massive beat  - whatever they feel like using to further mislead the public about their real health. We'll know more Friday when JPM announces and of course the next two weeks will be massive. The markets may choose to wait for the market leader AAPL before any serious reaction.

Of course the big news (never mind our employment numbers or ratings downgrade to AA status) is from the EU with faltering Spain. Who could have seen this one coming, right? The whole move from October was based solely on the rumor of QE3 and LTRO2 that would save everything, and look at things just a couple of weeks later after the all saving all curing LTRO2 was announced.

I'm not sure what it is going to take to turn the markets as all they are is one big banking orgy. The sheeple don't get QE or have any clue about the debt situation. Bottom line is you and I know something bad is coming and we will be ready when that time finally arrives.

You may be tired of this 60m SPX chart, but it is the best (easiest to see and understand) I have right now. It contains the major support levels and the 4 fibs off the 4 major lows on the run up. Target boxes are in green. For more charts, see this mornings chartapalloza where I made it painfully clear that TA is finally ready to buck the liquidity trend. There is not any support left till 1340 (the case is different on the Minis shown below) which is the number I have been looking to which I hope will be the neckline and complete the head of a larger head and shoulders.

Minis 30m - Your STB Market Sherpa has done a good job walking you to the lower pink support diagonal at 1355. After the brief pause at 68, price ran right to support and stopped. You can see the 1342 white support just below. That is what I really wanted, but this may have to do. We'll have to see what happens overnight and if Asia and the EU can do their part to keep the downward momo going.

Note - I'll get back to the normal AD's soon that cover all the various topics you like to see and I like to report very soon. I'm lacking a bit of motivation as the reality of what's coming has me in a bit of and "avoidance" state. Call it a bit of time away (reporting it, not that I've stopped reading and bookmarking it).

GL and GB.

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