Friday, December 18, 2009

Morning Post

Opex anyone? Well, thank goodness I got to go another day without having to adjust the upper fibs on a whole bunch of charts. Today could be interesting.

Let's start with an overview of the broad indexes. Notice the congestion. RUT almost caught up. There is resistance.

Now lets compare some major players. SPX (red) still laggin all the others in the correction. Gold and the dollar have made the biggest moves. Oil is bucking the trend. TNX looks to be taking a little breather.

So what happens today? Well I'm not going to speculate on a triple witching Opex but the charts say -

15m SPX - not looking at it for anything other than the chart. Stopped at gap fill on the nose. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last move. Trading is obviously range bound from 1116 to 1087.

SPX 60m - Interesting spot for a spot to stop. With futures up here and the indicators on the 60m favoring a bottom if you are ST short I would proceed with caution.

SPX daily - Looks pretty bearish here for the over all trend right now. The RSI sitting on the 50 line bothers me as a bear. The divergences continue to grow and amazingly the market has not let go. You see all the support listed in the chart.

Oil - Middle east tensions? No kidding. Oil futures 1m - There is the pop oil got from the news.

Oil daily - As reported here - oil held the lower channel TL. Let's see what it does when it backtests the gray channel.

Triple opex and middle east troubles (not to mention the daily barrage of wonderful news) leads me to want to sit and watch today. As for a count - I have no idea. I'm seeing thenm leading up to 1135 (I have it as high as 1214 possibly) and some going straight down. When 1119 or 1087 break, I'll then get interested.

GL, have a great weekend and happy holidays.