Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Morning Post 11/16/11, SPX

The one bit of news that is screaming at me this morning - "But the move could provide an extra layer of protection for the Fed against the risk that a dealer bank goes belly up." Fed To Hike Current Coupon MBS Margins | ZeroHedge. Hmmm Fed moving into protection mode - maybe you should as well. STB is all about following the Fed. Maybe this is a signal that Duck and Cover drills should be put into practice.

SPX Daily - The most important thing to note here is price levels to lack of strength in the indicators. In almost all of the indicators below they continued to weaken as price set a higher low. Note the lack of strength under the 1220 low compared to the 1230 low. The CCI really stands out to me.

This consolidation I have been showing could still break either way. I lowered the blue wedge support diagonal on this chart effectively resetting the D point of the rising wedge. This may be right or wrong. For my drop, pop, diverge and fail scenario I still need some more upside. Bottom line is this market is always a rumor from a ramp and a default from a crash.

Minis 4hr - Possible reversal candle this morning as consolidation continues under the busted (blue) wedge diagonal. I did not lower the diagonal on this chart to encompass the last low. This is the bearish scenario that says the berakdown has happened and is only being stalled from further acceleration south. As mentioned in the comments yesterday, oped max SPY pain is near 124, that puts price consolidating inside the green triangle wedge till the end of the week. S/R is clear and is being obeyed by the bots with remarkable accuracy.

Minis 1m with VWAP - Is this what a failed stick save ramp looks like. I would not know. They are so rare. The rarest of all chart formations. Minis trying to hold that green support diagonal at 1241.1236 support just below. This does not look good at all. You can not deny that 1257 is the ceiling. Look at that tag. test and reverse last night.

Remember the reason for the season.

GL and GB.

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