Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Morning Charts 04/03/13 SPX /ES

Happy 4th eve! What great and magnificent strives for freedom we have to celebrate tomorrow. Wait, I think I've gotten that wrong. Scratch that. Reverse it. What great strides we've taken for losing all our freedoms, and what ginormous and positive steps we've taken to becoming a model Soviet police state. You gotta love the terrorist bogeyman they created so they can impose their will on us. More on this tomorrow.

A quick look at oil. My take is that the powers that be may be losing some control over their pricing prowess of the second most manipulated commodity on the planet (gold would be #1). They sunk gold and silver and have been able to maintain the equity markets The dollar has exploded and is just about to hit LT resistance at $85. The bond markets are running a muck.

It appears their ability to corral multiple markets is fading. I guess the Bernank feels a bit like a cat herder at this moment. Are the Fed's resources being spread to thin as the expanding magnitude of the inflation they say does not exist wears invisibly on their policies? Oil must be a major thorn in the central planner's side. I actually think they have done a remarkable job containing oil under $100 for as long as they have.

The turmoil in Egypt, Syria and the rest of MENA is too much to be ignored now. Supply has apparently become a real concern. Price has not gotten away from them yet, but mr. market seems to be anticipating some sort of disruption and is beginning to price in something. This can not be deemed a major breakout or anything like that just yet. The IHnS I have been showing only shows a move to $106 which is not a back breaker, but it does place oil in that over $100 bracket which will not be popular here at home.

I'm not sure why oil exploding would not be a central planner positive. We all know they do not want an economic recovery at this point. Higher oil works right into their plans for a weaker economy, total control and continued market manipulation. Bad is good remember? This is where the cat herding and all things become a bit confusing. But wait a minute, why is the market not responding to the negatives with positive price action? Is their model breaking?

Wait, PMI is kicking ass and the ADP report this morning was a big surprise - we're in total recovery mode and all is well, right? The BLS is spewing all sorts of great data that prove what a tremendous job potus and the Fed are doing. They are even talking taper. Here is the STB conundrum moment of the morning - so full recovery, all is well, taper talk - markets are sliding. That's correct as good news is bad news. But then on the bad news is good news front the markets are no longer responding to the QE4eva mantra that we all know must continue or else.

Honestly I don't think anyone knows which way is up any longer, and that is where this market stands. I believe total confusion and loss of central planning control is about to lead us to a very dark place. I think the SPX is primed for a 14 handle soon.

On to the great lie -

Well, they tried to give it the old ADP super beat rally the markets college try this morning and failure is all they got. Not good, cause this is a taper on event. Confusion reigns. Again, they are losing control and that is never good in a centrally planned environment.

Minis 4hr - Well, they did not hit my STB point nor get my so desired backtest of the busted long term rising channel support. That's OK. No big deal. This bodes well for what I expect is a rather large slide coming after the 4th. They've maintained price well enough I guess going into the holiday to keep the sheeple complacent.

Minis 30m - We enter the 5th day of range bound action between 1618 and 1593. I guess we all know where the sell and buy stops are don't we? Price is sliding down backtesting (still) the busted green falling channel resistance. This does give bully some hope still, any crack of 1595 and it may be game over.

I'll have a post up tomorrow. Not sure how deep I'll go into a rant or anything. Lord knows I could use one and they deserve a good tongue lashing (and a lot more).

Enjoy the holiday.

GL and GB!

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