SPX Today - She's Goin Down And You Will Like It! (Plus Dollar, Oil, Vix and Shanghai)

OK, so we made it thru a false pop today because the rumors of a second stimulus were going around (now if someone would explain to me A) why that is a good idea and B) how is it possible - anyway you now know what to look out for in the future when that talk starts going around - IMO it is realistic but unrealistic if you know what I mean).

Note - The width of the BB's on the daily chart are extremely tight indicating something is about to bust. Up or down? That is what I am trying to decipher.

Bear case - Bottom line is the weekly and daily indicators are headed south and the 60m (see chart below) is topping out and possibly rolling over. That puts all three in line for a powerful move if it happens.

Bull case - 1) the 60m turn signals are not confirmed yet 2) the action of the RSI on the daily chart (holding 50 and headed up), the MACD hist on the daily is stopping its fall, the S Sto on the daily appears to be losing some momo.

I'm hoping the rollover of the 60m and having the opex trade out of the way will make room for more downside action. I want 945 so bad I can taste it. I have two channels drawn on the chart (red and Blue). All lines are copies of the other. They both would make for nice targets. The tight ass BB's on the daily indicate something is about to bust a move big time, so be careful if you are short or long. When it runs, you'll know what team to be on.

My other thoughts - on the VIX - Well, I'm not going to call it totally irrelevant, but it may have lost some of it's luster IMO. I honestly think it will put in the dead cat bounce and possibly go for the backtest of the falling wedge. This will occur on the last hurah as the market climbs to 1050 after this correction. If the $SSEC Shanghai index is any indication, it has led the SPX and with this most recent fall after peaking, maybe, just maybe, the trend holds. As for the dollar and oil - who the heck knows. They are both so manipulated. I'm guessing the bottom is in for the dollar and a top is in on oil, but those are only guesses.

Feedback welcomed - GL trading!

Daily Chart Link

Daily Indicator Chart Link

Weekly Indicator Chart Link

UNG Time

Many emails asking for a UNG update, so here it is. I'm looking for continued weakness thru the end of the year, then the trendlines on the indicators run out of room to fall as well as the falling wedge will play out. Even then I am not expecting a big pop then as continued weakness in overall economic conditions persist. It may just form some sort of range bound bottom I'm guessing and this may just be the beginning. The major downtrend line is busted, but the reaction to that was to form a falling wedge. Thus, IMO the bottom is being set, but will remain in place fro a long time.

The divergences on the 60m say a pop will possibly be coming soon. The gap around 12.20 may provide support or be a target price is after. The daily appears near a bottom and the weeklys are coming up on trendline support. The lower BB and trendline jive really well around 11.74. Don't just look at the 60m chart and call it good. To get in tune with price movement, you need to look at the daily and weekly indicators as well.

Trading UNG for 10 to 20% pops is a good thing, but looking for it to kick some serious butt and make a major move is insane. The fundamentals are not there. Remember a few UNG posts back I spoke of contango and the forward price? This is the true key to trading this. If you have knowledge that the forward prices are higher, it will go up. If not, then the slide continues as the contango evaporates. That being said, as long as production is being cut and demand continues to fall, don't be looking for any miracles here.

I expect new lows to be set before this is all over. Links to the daily and weekly charts are below. GL trading.

60m UNG viewed better here.




Daily UNG viewed better here.

Weekly UNG viewed better here.