Sunday, November 15, 2009

Opex And Cycles (And More Possible Upside)

Just a quick something I threw together looking for some trends. Some of you may really like this. Red vert lines are Fib Cycles. Blue vert lines are opex weeks. Notice the fib cycle lows all hit nicely. This has me wondering if this was a low. Notice the higher lows in RSI, CCI, MACD, and the corresponding weakness of the falls in price followed by an embeded S Sto and CCI. So, is this bear cross in S Sto another fake out just like after the last two? These cycles are rampant as I'll show in the am in the morning post.

The dollar has gotten crushed since the close Friday and the minis are up over 6 tonight.74.50 is one target I had and then I did throw out the possibility of $70. Now, I believe the dollar will get absolutely pummeled, so when the dollar and the markets dislocate, that will be the key IMO.

For those of you following the VIX, I believe it is the most insignificant index on the planet at this time. When the market has turned, and only when it has turned, will it then have any relevance. IMHO of course. For those of you looking to play the VIX, see my VXX and VXZ comparison chart. I would avoid this play till the bottom (top of market) is clearly set. 

With so many calling or looking for the top, I've been seeing a 3 or 5 of 5 up for sometime now. Bottom line is that the dollars is driving the markets and those that do not get on board with the Fed,treasury, the PD's and the manipulation theme need to get a clue. The massive stick save since April is still in force. Want one good example as to why? Read Risk Rising At The PBGC? from Zero Hedge and Pension Pulse. There are stories like this everywhere. "They" have no option but to save the markets at all cost (and that is what they have been doing, so get used to it).

I know things suck and the market will dive bomb sooner than later. The divergences are all over the place. Listen, I want to call the top, but why stress over it. BFD I say. Let's make some money and continue buying the dips and selling the rips. The daily indicators (as I have preached for months) have been the best thing to follow. Take emotion out of the equation. Screw the "counts" that have done so many so wrong for so long. Just do what the charts tell you to do.

This is the run to the top IMO. We crash on the next fall. According to the cycles in this chart, the next cycle low is in February. That one (if we should make it that long) will be really shallow. The monthly charts are not ready yet and IMO the weeklys although having a divergence, can still hang up here for some time. I'm eying a lot of things including the possibility of a top being in, us topping soon (1121+) or then in Februaryish around 1210. Do not forget that my original topping range set months ago was 1050 to 1121. Let's just see how it plays out. As usual, I'll be playing the indicators.

I will no longer be posting any timing calls anywhere else but here in my comments section.

Keep an eye on UNG this week just in case it pops. $11 is a good number for a start. I'll work on gold and oil this week.

Linus - The only gap left on October 08 is from 1016.48 to - 1018.67.

Let me add this, If you like this please twitter it or share it with others. I'd appreciate it. 

More in the am. Get some sleep. This is gonna be a big week.