Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Morning Post

As long as the dailys are running, let 'em run.

Minis are flat. Dow set a new high yesterday for '09. SPX backtesting the C wave lower trendline. I believe I was the first to call the inverse H&S last week (not confirmed, nor do I really care) with the 1091 target that was pegged yesterday. Sooo much action.

P2 LIVES - Its ALIVE. This is the missing wave 5 I have been speaking about. I had called for a truncated 5th wave all the way up and this mat be it. Yes, I was 85% a top was in, but that does not constitute calling a top. THIS TIME I WILL CALL A TOP (based on EWT) cause to me the formation will have played out. All the waves in place, the divergences on the weekly indicators and the the monthlys showing signs of weakness are all factors. The sucker suck in rally to the double top or blow off top is happening mow IMO. The one concern I have (where I may get the top wrong) is that the manipulators still control the liquidity and the dollar. As long as the dollar goes south the market will go up (to a point). As I have mentioned before, it may need an "external event" to rip this market away from the manipulators.

E-minis 60m - Looks to me like the 5th wave wedge is playing out. I count 3 up ending with 4 and 5 to come. Believe it or not 1121 appears to be a possible target (my upper range all along). There is a gap on the minis that is still not filled from 1106 to 1109 that should get closed before this move is over.

SPX 60m chart - No divergence in RSI yet, but it may begin the prodess today as the indicators are very toppy. These cam embed, so don't get all giddy about a turn using the 60m.Backtest of the lower trendline is in place. Keep an eye on that CCI 200 (yes, 200, and maybe you should try it too!). See the dashed blue top indicator lines. Let's watch CCI top out and set a divergence. The moment it goes negative is the time to be short 100% (get 50% short on the set of the divergence).

SPX Daily Chart -Other than the strong indicators the one think I want you to notice is the upper trendline on RSI. Does it stop there is the only question I can see in  this chart. NOTE - the upper BB (not on chart) is at 1,111. MACD closed positive yesterday, so now the market can "top" and reverse without any technical issues (IMHO).

$DXY  60m chart - Double bottom? I wish! Indicators on both 60m and daily say more lows to come, but these prices are controlled by the gods - I mean the fed and treasury and GS - so you never really know what they will do.It looks like a postetial throwunder of the falling wedge on a E touch, but I am doubting that based on the indicators. Possible that the wedge has not formed correctly at this time.

 I'm sure you can tell I got a new editing toy. Digging around trying to add Disqus last night I noticed that Blogger has made a posting enhancement. I'll try not to get too creative with it. Feedback on the new format would be appreciated.

Look for the Disqus addition soon and for me to possibly do a little chat of my own.

GL trading!

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