Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Morning Post

It is a new day at Shanky's Blog. I have entered the world of Disqus which will hopefully bring in a few more comments and add to the site. I plan on monitoring the conversations as often as possible. It should be a big improvement.

FIRST - Please remember that today is Vetran's Day. This may be the most important holiday we have. Remember those that fight, fought and fought and died for us to have our freedom. I'll most likely have an enormous rant about how F'd up our country is tonight and how the assholes in DC and on Wall St have disgraced these fine folks and us.

The minis set a fresh new high overnight at 1102, so this fairy tale adventure looks to have more legs. Another possible top come and gone. That one was a better fake out than the last. I am looking at this next top as "the" top as far as EWT is concerned. I'll clarify that meaning I think EWT will miss it one more time. Not busting anyone's chops but EWI's (cause you can diss them here all day long if you like), those folks need to learn to read the indicators. When they top and set divergences, then the market will top not cause your count says so. Yes, they will have a valid count after the fact, but only after the fact. Having missed two tops now, Prechter calling a top months ago and being "the experts" I would expect them to have their tails tucked quite tightly between their legs right now.

There was a missing 5 up of C and we're there now. Sooo many targets, but the way I see it is if 5=1 then somewhere in the 1180 range ought to do it. At this time, since I have not gotten out the abacus and the protractor and put it under the microscope, I can't give a precise number. I'm sticking with my original upper end target of 1121 (which will be expanded). At this time I think we're in 3 of 5 of C of P2. REMEMBER, I use EWT after consulting the indicators and make EWT fit to what the charts say. I also mainly use it as a nomenclature that allows me to more accurately describe the markets positions.I think we pullback very soon and then shoot for the moon during opex week to the possible top. I'll call it when I think it happens.

/ES 60m - Nice wedge! Top blue line is the P2 top trendline. Top pink line is the gap from around 1107 to 1109. That light gray line just above is the bear market top trendline. I'd say this is a major roadblock if you ask me. that combined with the 60m indicators being over bought with a divergence on S Sto and RSI means time for a pullback soon. A pullback to the lower P2 support line is possible, but we'll look at that later.

SPX 60m chart - Backtesting the trendline with some toppy indicators. Is that Mr. Divergence beginning to show his face on the RSI? MACD HIST has its divergence going on and might want a bear cross soon. S Sto is embedded and will fall sooner than later. Remember the dailys are the key for me and they still have a little room to run. the 60m can embed for months if they like. This chart says a turn is coming soon. Let that divergence in RSI get set.

$DXY 60 m chart - DXY to new lows! I had 74.50 as a target, but would not be surprised to see it sub 70 by the end of next week. I told you yesterday the wedge was not right, but now I think it is. This will have a temporary bottom soon.

Cutting it short this am cause I was running late. I think we top today or tomorrow early and have a pullback befor the big push in opex next week. I'm not sure where the bots are getting the funds to drive the market now as QE is supposedly dead and POMO no longer exists (as far as we know). Remember, you are a passenger on this ship and Captain Ben and his first mate Timaaay are running the show. Insiders have been dumping  and the computers control 70% of the trade. They will let it fall when they want it to, or something outside of their control will have to rip it away. Keep following the daily indicators to the tops and bottoms and you'll be fine.

I'll do a detailed post today with measurements on where I think it ends and when.

I wonder if that babe in the bikini will stop by today?

Check out the Disqus comments and leave one if you like.

GL trading