Monday, November 9, 2009

Morning Post

I hope everyone had a good weekend. Not really all that surprised to see the Minis up this am. The 61.8% retracement was crushed yesterday and the upper resistance line taken out in the process. Let me mention one thing that has not happened on the minis - they have not touched their bear market upper trendline. I am not saying they will or have to, but that should be a major line in the sand. One would expect that trendline to come into play eventually possibly several times. There is a chance this market drives to new highs or wants to set a double top if the daily indicators are allowed to run their course.

I'll add that there really was never a 5th wave in my opinion of the C leg of P2. I had always expected one more pop and for that wave to truncate. It is quite possible that this is that 5th wave (we'd be in 3 of 5 now) and P3 may not be underway. It is also possible that this is 2 up of 1 down (we'd be ending C, but looks like a zig-zag to take it higher). Remember I count, but rely on TA as the primary call. My EWT counts are only to accurately describe the markets actions.

E-mini 60m - I thought it would turn in the gray box at the upper green trendline, but the daily indicators are driving up. You can see the 60m indicators are topped out. I have mentioned two targets early last week. the conventional 1067 to 1071 area and then I threw in the idea of a IH&S with a target of 1090. The heavy yellow line is the neckline and it had a nice backtest Friday. Apparently the minis are channeling and at the top of the channel right now.

$DXY 60m - Double bottom time!?!?!? The dollar got crushed over the weekend. $76.15 WAS the low back in September of '08. That does not appear to mean anything. Has the dollar completed a dead cat bounce or is there more fall to come. If so, the market will continue to march up. It is very possible that this is a E touch throw under of the falling wedge.

SPX 60m - Upper trendline will be further violated this morning, but the indicators on this chart look toppy now, but there is still room to run some.

SPX daily - I have been warning that the daily indicators look bullish and last week put the buy signal on the chart. RSI got thru 50 but is flat (for now), MACD hist is rising and ADX got the bull cross. The dailys may have to run their course.

I went short 15% positions in SRS and SDS on Friday taking a chance the retracement and upper trendline would hold. Not sure if i will hold or add to those positions. Based on the daily SPX I may be out soon. With the chance of an ending 3 and a 4 then 5 to come, I'd place the upper target for this run at the 1090 H&S target (that also works for 5=1 range). If the minis decide to back test that upper green trendline in a 4 down that is where I will exit.

This is must read IMO - Reported Cases in Ukraine Double Again To 871,037. Much thanks to my buddy Moron for the link. If Swine flu - or some other strain is taking hold that is more deadly - this could be a big surprise as the MSM seems to be keeping this under the radar. Here is the link to the first chart in my swine flu section. If you click on the chart it will scroll you thru them or use the chartbook drop down above the chart.

Sorry, I had to turn on comment moderation, so be patient.

Please call your representatives and let them know your feeling on the HC bill and the Audit the Fed issue.

GL today.


  1. hey shanky, I asked to link you, you're on the blogroll now. Please link if you like the site.

  2. Thanks LS - sorry for the comment moderation, but there are some out there now spamming that are just too much to contend with. Thanks for the link and I'll check it out and reciprocate if possible. The same story I give to many, I get requests weekly for reciprocal links and (not dissing anyone) just like to keep mine as clean as possible. I'll check it out. I appreciate it.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.