Friday, November 13, 2009

Morning Post

Joe Kernan - Ron, why don't you come in and spend a couple of hours with us?

Ron Paul - I don't know if I can stand being with you for a couple of hours.

What a great way to start your day. I'll have the vid when available.

Still looking at either 2 or 4 down of 5 up. Initial target is 1076 to 1068 SPX. Upper targets for SPX range from 1121 to 1210 at this time using various scenarios. You all are not stupid and know that the dollar and the POMO/QE money is driving the market up and they can not let the market fail, so don't be getting all giddy about a top here. Could the top be in? Absolutely. That was a really pretty double top and all the divergences are there and it appears the dollar has bottomed. This would be a great place to call a top. I just don;t think the dollar is finished falling. The banks must have the higher prices to keep the appearance that they still have some value and so they don't appear as the bankrupt insolvent entities they are.

This is all  a levitation trick that is floating on a large cushion of air. IMO every move north since April is fictitious. The top measurements I am using are based on TA and EWT. IMO the EWT measurements are not there yet. I will call the top when TA says I can NOT when EWT measurements say so (are they 0 for 2 or 3 now I believe? I lost count. LOL and I don't get paid millions to do this - something really funny about that to me). The weekly divergences are there. We have completed the necessary retracement of the fall of '08. It is only a matter of time now. The dollar will be key. I still believe something out of "their" control will have to happen for them to lose control of the market.

SPX daily chart - I added the top/bottom boxes. You can see how quickly it bottoms and how tops are drawn out. HIST turned down yesterday, RSI rolling over earlier than I thought, S Sto about to bear cross. I added a tentative sell line. I am 50% sort of SDS and SRS from about 1097 /ES yesterday as announced on a couple of chats.

SPX 60m chart - Mr. Divergence snuck in  yesterday morning rather quickly on the RSI, so you had to jump. Backtested the C wedge trendline and now has broken below the lower wedge line of that run up. Watch the 60m run to the bottom today and then be ready to exit. I am not anticipating this being a big fall.

$DXY 60m - Not sure if it is a channel or a falling wedge or neither. the pink line is the LT trendline from the top. That is where the battle is being waged. If that cracks down she goes.

I am going to spend a lot of time here today posting a bunch of stuff on gold, ung, and others plus doing a post explaining in more detail what I think is going on. I'm uessing this is a small pop down before opex takes us to new highs next week that may be the top.

I called into the Alex Jones radio show yesterday. You can hear me on around 11:40 est talking with G Edward Griffin and Alex.While you are there please stop and read some of the things you never hear about.

GL trading today.