Friday, December 30, 2011

Happy New Year! Involved

STB wishes all a happy and prosperous New Year. I thank you all for your support and readership.

To the lurkers, maybe a resolution would be to start commenting and get involved. Share your thoughts and opinions. I was a lurker once. My knowledge blossomed when I became involved. You have a lot to give and now is the time to express yourself. Interacting and communicating is vital. I don't care if you do it here or somewhere else, just do it.

Morning post 12/30/11, SPX

Let the fight to keep the major indexes positive for the year begin. Expect nothing else today. I'm thinking there is the possibility of a late sell off, but that's gonna be as slim a the volume or actual traders left in the pits.

A few posts you must read this AM to keep things in perspective.

Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of US Treasurys In Past Month | ZeroHedge, The global Ponzi is dead and the only thing supporting everything right now is printing or monetization of debt. In other words, the worst case scenario.

European Banks Close 2011 With Near Record Cash On Deposit At ECB, €9 Billion Overnight Increase | ZeroHedge. And they don't have their money in the domestic banks because? Beuller? Anyone?

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Morning Post 12/29/11, SPX

STB wanted to get thru opex and the 23rd then "all bets were off". This low volume holiday week is a dangerous time to be betting on the market. Heck, any week has become dangerous for that matter. The HFT algo bots controlling the system, the Fed printing to keep the illusion all is well alive, the ECB is "not" printing and  all it takes is a meaningless rumor to move this market up 1% (never down on bad news mind you) in a matter of minutes makes for a bad mix.

I'm enjoying vacation. Although I have been under the weather and there is less snow than I have seen in my 20 years of coming here (that is a huge deal as water supply issues in the west may be a problem this year) we're still rolling along having a good time. Looks like some snow will be coming today. I'm enjoying a break from the doom and gloom, but have no fear I'll be back with a vengeance soon.

Daily BB's narrowing quickly indicating some volatility is on the way. Reversal off of solid resistance following the doji. Looks like 1220 area is first solid support. The explosion of the dollar and the implosion of TNX yesterday were not welcomed by the markets.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Sunday, December 25, 2011

12/26/11, SPX

Monday is a travel day for Shanky. STB is headed to CO for some skiing with the family. Crested Butte, CO to be exact. I'll still be working and posting in the mornings.

I've scrolled ZH and Drudge and don't see anything I want to address at this time. That will change with tomorrow morning's post. Still no AD's this week. Those get back going after the first.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We sure did. Thanks for all the kind comments and well wishes last week.

60m MACD and ROC divergences at this potential double top are pretty nasty.

GL and GB.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Morning Post 12/22/11, SPX

In one of those strange and yet at the same time miraculous market phenomenons we like to point out at STB,  "as expected retail investors have pulled money from domestic (and foreign) equity funds for 33 of the past 34 weeks, with last week another $4 billion getting redeemed as mutual funds, now unchanged for the year, somehow have to deal with a $133 billion lower cash balance than at the beginning of the year." Retail Investors Pull $132 Billion From Domestic Equity Funds In 2011, 33 Of 34 Sequential Weeks Of Outflows | ZeroHedge. And the SPX is down 17 points on the year. Looks like they are doing the most with what they have left. Remember how close the SPX and the other indexes are to break even for the year. This may come into play over the next couple of weeks (hint: it is a target).

I know this was posted in the comments section yesterday, but in case you missed it, Mark Faber: "I Am Convinced The Whole Derivatives Market Will Cease To Exist And Will Go To Zero" | ZeroHedge. I suggest that you read about the hidden (from the sheeple via lack of reporting from the MSM) financial nuke that will be the most financially devastating bomb to ever hit the globe. This has been the one point that has had STB in "total fail" mode since 2007.

If you don't read the post at least look at the charts, you'll get the picture. Guest Post: Worse Than 2008 | ZeroHedge. My favorite is this one illustrating, well, you can figure that out. Reminds me of that famous joke, "And all I got for Christmas was....". Folks that is a shitpot load of cash that has been spent and solved absolutely nothing.


SPX 60m - Well, it's baaack. The 60m divergence sparked by the spike last night (surprise) has the 60m set up yet again. This setup has called every move over the past few weeks like clockwork. The markets and minis are set to open above resistance this time (unlike yesterday where they got pulled back before the open). The daily indicators appear to be working their way back up at this time but are indecisive at best.

Even the cash 60m is showing a slight divergence while indicators are at a level they could possibly be tiring out.


Remember the Reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Morning Post 12/21/11

Another numerology day and the day that marks the one year countdown to the end of the Mayan Calendar (Mexico Mayan region launches apocalypse countdown). Boy will we be having fun next year on this day and in the months leading up to it. Well, that is if the government has not shut down the internet, and I'm not in the Ft. Benning FEMA camp of course. Heck by that time every BD may have stolen all of our investment funds and there may not be any reason to be here discussing investments anyway.

So why the reason for the big ramp yesterday? Well the EU finally got some much needed funding to assist the liquidity crisis. Will this solve any core or long term issues? Heck no! "Below are select knee jerk responses by Wall Street analysts, which as warned repeatedly, are broadly skeptical for one simple reason: by delaying much needed ECB intervention, which is the only "bazooka" in this case, the solvency crisis in Europe's financial core will continue to escalate until the next time around it will require far greater stop gap measures. Bottom line - this solves nothing." What The Analysts Are Saying - Wall Street's Kneejerk Response To Oversized LTRO | ZeroHedge. Bottom line is print or die and then die because you printed.

You see, "Lastly, as a reminder, European deleveraing needs in the "near-term" are €2.5 trillion, meaning today's LTRO barely covers 20% of total needs, and is even less if some banks indeed foolishly decided to partake in the carry trade". Summary - LTRO Represents 20% Of European Bank Deleveraging Needs | ZeroHedge. So the party yesterday is met with the broad skepticism mentioned above and was celebrating a 20% max solution? As STB likes to ask, seriously? All that move for what?

I suggest you watch this, "video is 15 minutes long and well-worth watching. Platt is not a permabear by any means. He caught the rebound nicely in 2009 but now believes the prudent thing to do is completely avoid risk for the time being as better opportunities will come down the road for those who stay liquid. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: $30 Billion Fund Manager Makes Case for Being Totally on Sidelines in Treasuries and German Bonds.

So who's not taking funds out of the markets? "Worldwide, investors have yanked $34 billion out of equity funds this year and put $75 billion into bonds." No Stocks Under Tree: Investors End Year Fleeing Equities For Bonds - Fast Money - CNBC - CNBC and that should leave you wondering who's playing, right?

I really suggest you read this and all the accompanying links - Constitutional Expert: "President Obama ... Says That He Can Kill [Any American Citizen Without Any Charge and] On His Own Discretion. He Can Jail You Indefinitely On His Own Discretion”

Hey, I guess when you are in another country you can have free speech and not be assured indefinite detention for no cause. Must be nice. Hugo tells it like it is, "“Mr. Obama decided to attack us,” Chávez said. “Now you want to win votes by attacking Venezuela. Don’t be irresponsible. You are a clown, a clown. Leave us in peace … Go after your votes by fulfilling that which you promised your people. Focus on governing your country, which you’ve turned into a disaster,” Chávez said, according to The Guardian. Hugo Chavez: Obama’s a ‘clown’ president - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com

So, my cautionary stance of the last few weeks is paying off. I warned to hold off till opex ended and then was willing to give them till the 23rd and then "all bets are off". That still stands. Duck and cover remains in full force (that is on perpetually right now). The LTRO is a stop gap measure that will temporarily solve liquidity issues which should give the markets some relief. As noted a long time back, measures now no longer generate sustainable ramps, but short bursts that keep the markets propped up.

SPX 60m - It took a long and strong move to drive price back thru 1220 but that was not an issue taking that technical level down. How bout that one day 61% retracement. Nice! Minis last night moved as high as 1249 after an 8 point spike in the 5 hr but that has been taken back to get price back under 1236 resistance. This move does open the door to upside potential in cash today, but the take down is not a positive by any means.You see the minis have fallen from that 1249 level all the way to 1228 at this point. that is a 21 point tumble. Not good. Maybe the markets are on to this LTRO being a bogus non solution and want to take advantage of selling at these higher levels? Note there is a potential SP (Shaky Point) overnight at 1200.

I'm watching the blue wedge here. It plays out when? Right after the first of the year of course. Sets up nicely for a churn from now thru New Years. Then down should be the only way to go and that is a massive hole below.


STB will be out this afternoon traveling to the ATL for Christmas with family, but I will be here Thursday and Friday. As mentioned all next week STB will be on vacation, but still posting and working from the annual trip to Crested Butte.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Morning Post 12/20/11

Funny, STB loves confirmation of the wild and crazy theories we present here on almost a weekly basis. For those of you that doubt or think my ranting on the economic data manipulation are unfounded maybe you should read Bureau Of Labor Statistics Caught Red Handed Leaking Confidential Employment Data | ZeroHedge. "But at least the next time the market does its usual pre-NFP acrobats, the only question will be: which particular US politicians i) traded in advance of the embargo lift, and ii) leaked the information to ten of their closest friends, who did the same, who did the same, etc." This one is nice as it covers both data manipulation and the congressional insider trading and many other points we consistently call bullshit on.

Speaking of data manipulation maybe you should read Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Buyer's Remorse; Record Volume of Returns Before Christmas; $217 Billion Returns Expected, Up 14% before the next round of really bad data points are released that you should not believe. Anyone here remember the recent "revision" (you know the 20% markdown) in home sales going back to 2007?

Sticking with the corrupt/crooks/theives theme this morning another must read is Jesse's Café Américain: Trustee to Seize and Liquidate Even the Stored Customer Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global where you get, "Get your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible.  And if you want to own gold and silver, take delivery and store it in a secure private facility outside the fractional reserve system." The theme of getting as far away from the system as possible with you wealth is starting to take root across the interned and not n fringe sites, but with major players. STB has long been recommending you buy your gold of silver in untraceable amounts with cash and keeping it at home or is some very safe place. See Denninger's thoughts on this topic in Private Property Now Subject To Seizure in [Market-Ticker].

Want to see something that is really fucked up and will absolutely blow your mind? "As the following brief but must watch video explains, the ESM "is an organization that can sue us, but is immune from any forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity; there are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply; governments can not take action against it? Europe's national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization? Is that the future of Europe? Is that the new EU? A Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?"" Video Explanation Of How The ESM Is Europe's Uber-TARP On Steroids | ZeroHedge

Most readers know that STB has been targeting 1040 SPX for quite some time now before the next massive stimulus is released. Recently CITI came out with a 950 target  and yesterday this came out Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950 | ZeroHedge.

SPX 60m - It just looks like a likely point for some sort of corrective to stop the bleeding, temporarily. With the 10yr at 1.84, they need to do something fast.


Important issues -

Most readers know that I think a killer biological weapon will come with the next war (put whatever theory you prefer with this post). I was not surprised to find Alarm as Dutch lab creates highly contagious killer flu - Science - News - The Independent yesterday. Just something to keep in mind. Remember they can't afford to feed everyone and the entitlement state is getting a bit out of hand. What better way to remove a large part of the burden that to simply eliminate the problem under the guise of war with a killer flu virus.

In yet another police state development - The Anti-Internet Bill has NOT Been Postponed To 2012 … The Committee Members Who Support SOPA Sneakily Changed the Hearing Date to December 21st, Trying to Trick the American People Into Thinking It Was Over Until After the Holidays So We Won’t Fight Back! - Washington's Blog

Bloomberg TV actually reported that Ron Paul has the lead in Iowa this morning. It was of course a brief bit after a big piece on Romney, but a mention of reality is nice.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Morning Post 12/19/11, SPX

'Twas the week before Christmas and all thru the house Shanky had a  lot going on (as I am sure you do as well). You'll always have a post but not always have me this week as I gots some things to do. Those that play the Shanky vacation market crash trade you are in luck! The week after Christmas I'll be doing the annual trip to ski with the family in Crested Butte. I'll still be working from CB as usual. I wish everyone a safre and happy holiday season.

On to the markets. As you know we have almost fully entered the "all bets are off" zone STB has been forecasting. After this week I may go full blown duck and cover, but now that we're past opex I suggest you be at the ready. There is a massive hole for news generating events till the next FOMC meeting in late January. Unless Evans of some other Fed president starts really hyping easing (in a big way), I see nothing that can lift the markets or even sustain them at current levels till the rumor ramp should start mid January. What the bulls will have is the next two weeks will be super low volume and some EOY adjustments. Bears may have to remain patient.

You all know I'm looking for a major move south to allow for some sort of massive easing. DB has been looking for this as well. "So what does this tell us? The extremely low risk premium fully captures QE expectations. Empirically, they find USD19bn of new QE tends to reduce real rates by 1bps and based on this and a model of fundamentals and risk aversion parameters, they find that Twist was fully priced in last September and since then the current dislocation suggests another full QE2-style package of about $800bn is already priced into the market (ex MBS reinvestment)." We just hope the market is not disappointed. Deutsche On QE3, It's $800bn Or Bust! | ZeroHedge. STB is looking for multiple trillions. A major move with language there will be more to come.

Minis 4hr - See the pink channel? Bulls better make a move here with price recovering off a potential double bottom at 1200, they need to push price thru 1218 resistance and the upper channel resistance. If not it could get fugly.



Friday, December 16, 2011

Open Weekend Post 12/17-18/11

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

MTV Martial Law Commercial - National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1867) - YouTube

"Viewers would be surprised to see MTV’s recent anti-Martial Law advert that ran this week. It’s part of of MTV’s ‘Think’ ad campaign, and is a clear break from the usual innocuous political content that we are normally used to seeing on a pop music network. The appearance of such a timely message here is somewhat surprising from the network whose unquestioning loyalty helped catapult Barack Obama into office in 2008, and may be called upon again to do the same in 2012…" MTV runs advert opposing Obama’s NDAA bill Alex Jones' Infowars



Morning Post 12/16/11, SPX

Here's a good sentence to start the day that sums up the central planning bankster takeover quite nicely, "perhaps it is not the actual mechanics of this liquidity bazooka but the perception that democracy itself has been suspended in favor of bank and sovereign survival" from "ECB Liquidity: Back-Door Bazooka Or Suspension Of Democracy, BARCAP Opines | ZeroHedge. In the AD last night and over the past several months my focus has been shifting weight from heavy market coverage to more of a balance between markets and civil liberties. Why, because with the impending global financial meltdown it is just as important to know how you will be effected personally as well as financially.

This sentence sums up the outstanding jobs report yesterday, "What the hell happened there?  It looks like a hell of a lot of people got laid off and shifted into the extended programs as well.  This definitely wasn't in the November numbers for the big report..... so where did these people (nearly 900,000 of them?!) go?" Heh Claims, Once Again in [Market-Ticker]. More data manipulation from government agencies to give the impression things are improving and all is well.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/15/11 - Indefinite Internment

The markets are a huge issue right now, but there is a far more important development we need to focus on. As for the markets, the EU summit and the FOMC meeting both came and went without any form of resolution to the crisis in the EU nor with more easing from the Fed. That leaves a gaping hole in the markets defenses for the bears to exploit. STB has been looking for a move to 1040 to come in order for the central planners to have the support (fear/desperation) to be able to deliver more stimulus.

I was very pleased to see Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods | ZeroHedge confirming a lot of what I have been calling for over the past 6 months. More recently I have been allowing the central planners to halt the current slide because of opex Friday and Christmas on the way, but after the 24th "all bets are off". My 1218 backtest call halted the upward movement this morning nicely. Was that it for the upside here? More than likely I think so, but we still have to get thru next week and 1200 round level support below.

After hours the RIMM disappointment and this announcement - Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, And Morgan Stanley have not budged the futures. I guess big tech and banks no longer matter to the markets.

Gold -

I thought I would do a quick post on gold since the charts are screaming at me.

OK - first I ma a HUGE believer in gold and that gold will eventually cross the $5000 barrier and more. I am also a believer that when the big crash happens and true capitulation occurs all asset classes sell off in a hurry. There will be no place to hide. At some point all the money turns and flows into physical gold and silver as total panic ensues. Then the explosion up occurs. Till then goldbugs may face some tough times.

Let's start with this from Stockcharts chartshhool - The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.


Morning Post 12/15/11

Holy shit - 10 days till Christmas. Meaning we're two days into that 12 days of Christmas song that I can  not stand. I bet my readers can rewrite that one rather quickly. Here is a quick effort by me. Feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section. I could not work in the Vespas or extra ammo.


Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/14/11 - Anything Goes

I think they are out of bullets at this time and will do what they can thru the PPT to support the markets thru Friday's OPEX and possibly the 24th, but as I have been saying after that all bets are off. The EU summit failed and the Fed is (has been since October) stepping out of the supporting the EU (at least in rhetoric). There is nothing left to support price. Heck all that has supported price recently were unfounded rumors of salvation and hope. Now we just let the liquidity boa squeeze the life out of the ECB and the EU banks.

SPX E-Mini 60m - Back at the early November top I was calling for a drop and pop to set divergences on the daily indicators before a major move south would happen. That is set now. As for right now - See that small pink wedge with the underthrow and cracking the lower Green channel support? Now see the divergences on MACD and RSI.

Either this is a blow off bottom with round level 1200 and LT diagonal (yellow) support or it is about to puke up a lung. With the dollar exploding, the TNX in full submission mode and the daily indicators looking rather ill, full puke may be in order sooner than later. 1218 was a major hurdle for the bears and that yellow line is next. I'm still thinking they try to support it thru OPEX or Christmas, but that may be too much to ask.


Morning Post 12/14/11, SPX

So, like a bunch of whining babies not getting their candy or toys, the markets moan and complain about not getting their easing "fix". I hate to sound like a broken record, but this should be proof enough (and the 2000th iteration of this) that the only thing that keeps the markets afloat is intervention. Reality is the Fed can ease at any time they want. The issues now is what collateral damage comes with every additional dollar printed.

The EU summit came and went (yet again) without any sort of resolution. As we have been discussing there is no resolution or "fix" as they want you to believe. About the only action left is to print, print, print like they never have before. We also all know that this will only lead to increasing the already unmanageable debt load. So, when does the proverbial fiat dollar finally break the camel's back? That is the question we ask every day.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/13/11 - There Is No Relief

There is no answer. Despite the Fed's Evans constantly crowing for more easing (proving that he's either a total idiot or a market manipulation shill for the banksters), none was delivered today. I'm not sure how or who thought more easing would come today and why any had hopes of such an action. With the DOW near 12000, what's the hurry?

Either way, easing or not, we're pretty doomed. We already exist in a world of insurmountable debt. There are two way to deal with this problem. You either default or make the problem exponentially worse, kick the can, ease some more and make the problem even worse down the road.

We've already done that second solution twice, so why would a third time be the charm and magically fix everything when the first two have ....made the problem even worse? The fact that some believe that all will be well and the charade that the cronies are preaching thru the MSM is really disgusting. For those that still believe that there is a chance things can be fixed, you need to dust up on your remedial math and have your head examined.

Morning Post 12/13/11, Chartapalooza day!

Let's look at some LT weekly charts.

EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.


Monday, December 12, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/12/11 -

Not sure where to start today. Friday we had yet another EU D-Day come and go without any form of reconciliation or agreement on how to solve the financial crisis. Of course the markets ramped up to the event in anticipation some sort of solution would come that would end the nightmare.

Well, we all here at STB knew plain as day that nothing would happen and this date would come and go without any "solution" for one simple reason - there is no solution. All the money in the world (currently) would not solve anything. All the money they can print will not solve anything. Piling more debt on unmanageable debt is no answer. They are screwed and it is only a matter of time before something breaks and they complete system fails. They announced March as the time for the next meeting, If, somehow, they can hold out till then, February will be the next ramp month in anticipation of the next "solution". I'm not sure they will make it to that point.

I'm not gonna rehash a bunch of treaty busting rhetoric that produces nothing. I'm tired of the rest of it for now. Nothing "flowed" today, so I don't "flow" now. Not gonna waste your time.

Morning Post 12/12/11. SPX

OK, I was thinking that with Christmas and all we'd lighten up on the doom and gloom for a couple of weeks. Sorry, can't do that. Now is the time for light hearts and giving and all the mumbo jumbo that comes with this glorious season, but now is also not the time to be lightening your focus on global events financial or otherwise. We're on the cliff of despair and now is not the time to be distracted no matter the season. Sure, they may maintain this market thru Christmas, but in January all bets are off.

STB remains on the liquidity issue train. Follow the money (or lack there of) and you will find the source of all the ills. For those of you that need an analogy, the global financial system is a huge cash burning furnace. They print money to fuel the furnace. Money gets burned in the furnace. In a normal situation  this furnace would generate steam or some form of beneficial energy that propels the engines. Sadly in this case the money is being burned to just sustain the life of the system and is not generating any benefits beyond that.

Here is the key - we have to pay for every dollar burned/borrowed. When the system can take that energy and use it for growth and actually return more than the fuel everything works (and as we all know a perpetual energy system has not been discovered yet - helloooo). When the system is just burning dollars to sustain, things are not so good. So, we've been shoveling larger and larger amounts of dollars that we still have to pay for into a furnace with an ever growing appetite that generates nothing in return. And that the state of the global financial system Charlie Brown.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Open Weekend Post 12/10-11/11

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll say this, times are tough and even tougher to spread the truth especially at this time of year. I'll say that while with loved ones over the holidays set 'em up for the body blows after the first of the year delivering a few well placed jabs to get them thinking. Share your knowledge and back it up with links to your favorite posts and articles. Hit larger broad topics and use questions to set up your attack. Get active emailing this stuff. People need to know what's gong down. We only have one shot at this, and the time is now to start spreading the news.

A links -

Evolution Securities Warns Of "Total Carnage And Meltdown" As European Bank Sales Of CDS On European Sovereign Debt Soar | ZeroHedge


Enjoy your weekend. Remember the Reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/09/11, SPX

LS 1&2 in a school play this morning, so post will be late. Sorry for the inconvenience.

GL and GB.

ARRRGH Matey - the little Shanksters killed it in the pirate play.

Minis 1m - They managed to recover 1236 and red support by the open. Well played by Benny and the Ink Jets. ARRRGH, these blimey scoundrels running this market. Saving face no doubt buying up the market after failed EU conference. Now, the big question is can they make it to March. I can guarantee one thing, just like October and recently, the markets will start ramping a few weeks before that meeting.  


Thursday, December 8, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/08/11 -

Alright, now why am I harping on all of this doom stuff? Simple, because when the financial meltdown comes, you better be ready. It is not coming you say? Shanky fear mongering you say? Don't think so. I back everything up here. Try this on for size, "“THERE IS NO MEANS OF AVOIDING THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF A BOOM BROUGHT ABOUT BY CREDIT EXPANSION. THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONLY WHETHER THE CRISIS SHOULD COME SOONER AS A RESULT OF A VOLUNTARY ABANDONMENT OF FURTHER CREDIT EXPANSION, OR LATER AS A FINAL OR TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF THE CURRENCY SYSTEM INVOLVED” Ludwig von Mises Egon von Greyerz: There Is No Deus Ex Machina Left | ZeroHedge

Clear? Crystal.

I hope so cause, "French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned that "never has the risk of disintegration been greater" BBC News - France's Sarkozy warns Europe risks disintegration. All this stuff is from the horse's mouth folks. Sadly most of you still don't get it. I get that. This is a very tough emotional hurdle to cross. The financial world is melting down in front of your eyes, and you are like a deer in the headlights. I suggest you blink and get out of the way.

Morning post 12/08/11, SPX

I went hard on y'all with the AD Internment post last night and for good reason. The cleptoracy is taking over. I really do not know how else to approach this other than to tell you that his crap has gone from fringe conspiracy to in your face US Senate bills in record time. It can no longer be denied. Blogs used to avoid discussing this stuff for fear of being ridiculed and running readers off. Now, if you don't discuss this I believe you are doing the readers a great disservice.

If you conservative 50%ers that can't get that this stuff is real and can't quite get over the hump need proof beyond the National Defense Authorization Act signed last week and Detention Camp Order Follows Preparations For Civil Unrest I can't help you.

I ask you to read Corzine's testimony to Congress. "It is extremely difficult for me to reconstruct the events that occurred during the chaotic days and the last hours leading up to the bankruptcy filing....I simply do not know where the money is" Presenting Jon Corzine's Complete Testimony To Congress | ZeroHedge.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/07/11 - Internment Time!

Sad, on this day the anniversary of Pearl Harbor, the event that led to the Japanese Americans to be interned for no reason other than being Japanese, that this story is posted - "The revelation that Halliburton subsidiary KBR is seeking sub-contractors to staff and outfit “emergency environment” camps located in five regions of the United States follows preparations over the last three years to deal with riots inside the United States that have already spread throughout Europe, North Africa and the Middle East." Detention Camp Order Follows Preparations For Civil Unrest Alex Jones' Infowars.

Yes, I led with a police state post and for a darn good reason. To those of you that write off this as crap or impossible, I highly suggest you read that article. It is all there in black and white. From government documents to presidential directives, this is real and it is happening NOW. They are preparing for something large. Really large political unrest is what that appears to be, which would be caused by a collapse in the global financial system.

Morning Post 12/07/11, SPX

Let's keep this simple this morning. The most recent post from Zero Hedge says it all, "We are there now, in other words, we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event. What is disturbing is just how fast the rate of change was this time around compared to before, when it took months to get to $50 billion. Now, it was one week. When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo." We Just Had A "Rerun" Of Bear Stearns: When Is Lehman Coming? | ZeroHedge

As I have called and with DB's post yesterday, they need an "event" before the massive easing comes. We're close, but we've also been close for years now. Put it another way, every day we inch closer to the inevitable, but no one knows when that will be, we just know it will be. What used to be months between blow ups is now weeks or days. The mounting crisis is almost fully compressed and with each day the vice moves another turn. Sooner than later implosion happens.

If this is true, ECB Confirms Shadow Banking System In Europe In Tatters | ZeroHedge, then you will see some really dirty laundry come out soon and the situation is at critical stage. Where the behind the scenes fixes were manufactured is busted or locked up, then that is essentially taking away a vital organ that allowed money to flow.

And for the icing on the cake, "In other words, as we have been saying, the funding squeeze has now managed to shift away from USDs and is impacting the EUR market itself, something the Fed has no control over." European Banks Dash For Fed Cash As Dollar Swap Usage Soars, Funding Squeeze Now Shifts To Euros | ZeroHedge. And if the Fed has no control over it, then .........

Duck and Cover is in full effect here. STB has been telling you for months it is all about liquidity. When they run out, everyone runs out and everything stops. If you do not have cash (and food) at home by now you better get it soon. This will not be an easy fix and will require an unprecedented shutdown of the global financial system. The only way to clear the slate and open up flow with bee for (as STB has been predicting for years) massive default. That will be to just get the funds flowing again.

STB has been holding out all week and last knowing they would be either delivering rumors or some sort of BS plan by the 9th. That has been the wise move. At this time price is beginning to tell you the market is wary of the end result. Divergences on the 4hr down are screaming sell. We all know that whatever they come up with to save the system will be futile, so it would only delay the inevitable. Sadly that is the game we have to play. If it were not for the EU meeting, I'd be balls deep short here.

So, back to the Shanky call, crash, war and massive stimulus should be the game plan. My November swoon worked but did not get me to 1040. Maybe I should have given more credence to the EOY prints and the Christmas rally. 1040 is coming and it should not take long to get there once the fall gets started.

Minis 4hr - There is basically no support under 1236 for almost 100 points.


SPX Daily - Tons of resistance at this point and little support below 1220. MACD looks sick.



Bullish Percent SPX - Something is not right here for sure.


Minis 1m - after the BS pop last night (just another manipulated fake out on rumor driven news) the minis have slid 13 to pink diagonal support at 1252 pushing the lower Vband down. 1257 does not want to let go. If that pink support diagonal goes so does the market. They will most likely have a backtest of this area before anything major. They still have until the 9th to generate market ramping rumors.



Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/06/11 - Epic Fail

After you read this you decide if we're in the midst of a major depression or not.

Also let me apologize for the length of these, it is just that everything I put in these posts is vital to know. You sure do not hear any of this on the lamestream media. Believe it or not, I usually trim these AD's down.

This morning I went off briefly on the failing global Ponzi scheme that will bring down the global financial system. This was posted to Zero hedge this afternoon, Guest Post: A Very Subtle Form Of Theft | ZeroHedge

"Governments around the world are in similar situations right now with their own public sector Ponzi schemes. Faced with failed auctions, declining demand, and rising yields, politicians are having to resort to desperate measures.

Like any good scam artist, they’re appealing to the masses first; all over Europe, governments are sponsoring new marketing campaigns suggesting that it’s people’s patriotic duty to buy government debt.

In Spain, they’re actually issuing instruments called ‘Bonos Patrioticos,’ or ‘patriotic bonds’. Ad campaigns say that the bonds are “good for you, good for the future.”"

Morning Post 12/06/11 - SPX

Perpetuating the Ponzi. Mot of you know this, but for the noobs let me briefly explain. The global financial system is a Ponzi scheme. Think Madoff, It is the US's job to buy things and everyone else needs to make things. In order for this to work they supply us with cash and buy treasuries and we in turn use those funds to buy their stuff. Where the system breaks is when other countries stop buying our treasuries and become net sellers. Then we have to print money, thus deflating our currency, to buy our own treasuries (monetization - which Geitner and Ben said would not happen).

Yes, this is  crude and short explanation, but it catches the basic premise of what the real problems are. This is the crux of all the issues at this time. The only answer left is for everyone to print more money to pay off the massive debts incurred over the past 10 years and to support the sensational entitlement programs that the citizens rely on.

The global Ponzi is dead. There are no more resources to buy everyone's bonds to support all the economies. All funds simply go to service debt now. Thus you hear  to save the EU it needs to print, and Germany (bless their souls) resists after experiencing the Wiemar period of hyperinflation after WWII knowing the devastating effects of what that will do.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Afternoon Delight 12/05/11 - Biding Time

STB loves being ahead of the curve with my predictions on market and political movements. I've got a pretty sporty track record or you would not be here and as you all know I love getting confirmation from the experts or the markets after I go on the record. When this showed up this afternoon, I got a big smile on my face. "As Deutsche Bank suggested earlier, the ECB needs a market plunge to justify an intervention. Hence, here is the ECB's very own Nowotny doing all he can do to precipitate a, you go it, market plunge:" ECB's Nowotny Slams Door Shut | ZeroHedge

There is one problem with the above, they will not let the market plunge. My November swoon call became a 12% move (I'll take it) that they promptly ended last Monday with the coordinated central bank intervention to stave off the next LEH crisis out of France.

Morning Post 12/05/11, SPX

STB running a bit behind this morning, sorry.

Gonna be a massive AD tonight, so light on the news this AM. The news and market are really flowing into my hypothesis, I just can't get the market to drop and cooperate quite yet.

Must read - They are loading up the Fed with easing friendly presidents - When Doves Laugh: 4 Weeks Until The Quiet Coup In The Fed Gives QE3 A Green Light | ZeroHedge

You need to see this and note the dates in it. All potential market movers - Complete Summary Of What To Expect From Europe This Week | ZeroHedge

It is all about liquidity! European Interbank Liquidity Deterioration Spikes Despite Surge In Italian Bonds | ZeroHedge

Friday, December 2, 2011

Open Weekend Post - 12/03-04/11

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge (while you still can without persecution).

If you are tired about hearing it from me, then why not hear about it from a major Broker Dealer? UBS On "How Bad Might It Get" And Why "Sooner Or Later Intense Instability Will Resume" | ZeroHedge

Look this is really serious. This is real. I'm so sorry to bring this to you, but if you do not read it for yourself you will (and may never) believe. Everyone needs to click thru this link and read this post. "American Citizens on U.S. Soil May be Indefinitely Detained, Sent to Guantanamo or Assassinated Obama Says" Americans Are MILITARY Targets in the War on Terror ... And Says that Only He - and Not the Courts - Gets to Decide Who Is a Legitimate Target 

Need more proof? 20 Examples of the Obama Administration Assault on Domestic Civil Liberties Alex Jones' Infowars

Morning Post - 12/02/11, SPX

Let's make this simple -

"Today we got the update for the two key ECB liquidity lines for the day after the bailout. And things are actually much worse than even we expected." So Much For The Bailout - European Funding Situation Worst Since March, As ECB Deposits And Emergency Loans Soar | ZeroHedge

Things are worse than expected and as evidenced Monday by the central planning stick save. This market can collapse at any moment. My daily readers know that we're all doomed and know that these band aids will not solve the structural debt issues facing the globe. It is only a matter of time, but what do we as investors do in the mean time?

Well, we all know by now the markets are rigged and will do whatever they need for them to. Do you need any more evidence than Monday and Wednesday of this week? The brain-trusts in the EU have till December 9th to come up with a plan. Where have we heard this before? Oh yeah! That's right, the October record rally into what would be a sure fire solution to the crisis when the ECB and the sovereigns were to have a remedy by October 23rd.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Afternoon delight 12/01/11 - And .....

And.... well....We're waiting...... So, bout the follow thru to that near 500 point ramp job yesterday? Well? Horse hockey! Just wait for the jobs number tomorrow, they need a good one. As discussed, none of the numbers relating to any sort of economic or financial data can be viewed without skepticism, Zero Hedge has a humerus bend to that with Predicting Tomorrow's NFP Based On The US 4-Sigma Beat Model of "Truth": +210,000 Jobs | ZeroHedge.

"Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge

Must watch series of videos (related to the ones I had in yesterday's AD)  with Dylan Vrabel and Max Keiser. Discussing the Debunking Money series with Max | Council on Renewal. This interview is right at one year old, but still as relevant as ever. It explains things in a manner that everyone can understand.

Morning Post 12/01/11, SPX

If you want news, go read the AD the past few nights. I'm getting a bit tired or reporting all the BS that happens everyday in these rigged markets. Rigged? Shanky, come on man! OK, try this for your daily dose of riggedness. What did the ADP numbers tell us the other day? Super bullish. Right at a time the markets needed a lift. What is reality (soon to be revised even higher as they always are) "After a few brief weeks with a 3 handle in initial claims, initial layoffs once again jumped over 400k, to 402,000 in the Thanksgiving shortened week." Initial Jobless Claims Back Over 400K, Prior Revised Higher As 91% Of The Time | ZeroHedge

As for the huge stick save ramp that pulled the market off the 12,000 foot cliff this week. The ramp generated because they staved off a true disaster and fixed nothing. "Don’t get flustered by the terminology of “dollar swap lines” above. Here’s a more simple explanation: Central banks around the globe have acted in desperation to boost liquidity in the system, which has sparked a rally in equities." Central Banks’ Latest Move Shows Desperation | ZeroHedge

Minis 5m - Yesterday in the comments (I tell you post readers all the time I do most of my "calling" and give some of my best work down there) I said, "Bear case - 1236 holding. I see backtest of the wedge (all of November - thin green can be seen on the minis chart above) and the apex of that wedge today at 1246 at 5:00. Hmmmmm a Shanky point? Should be noted. That is also the intersection of the green channel upper resistance with that wedge. 1242 would measure C=A to complete the ABC. 1245 IHns (2) target above 1230 IHnS(1) target. 1236 and 1257 major resistance points.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/30/11 - Rigged

I'm not sure where to start tonight. Bottom line is the system has come unglued and is unraveling at a pace that even the central planners can't keep up with anymore. Whatever topic you want to address debt, war, corruption or a plethora of other potentially systemic issues they are all getting worse. And the naysayers come out of the closet and say Shanky is a nut, don't listen, as proof the DOW was up over 400 today and 800 points over the last three. Be my guest to take that road. I'll firmly stay on the one less traveled.

Last night in the AD STB wrote about "Living on the Edge". The markets and governments pressing the limits of the system. Well apparently the system or a bank had been pressed beyond the limit and the central planners had to move directly into rescue mode to avoid another LEH incident (which apparently was known to have been coming).

I remind you to not get lost in the illusion that the markets are creating that all is well and you need to remain in full risk on mode. When you add up the pieces below you will find that we came within literally hours of massive systemic failure and only the stick save action of the central planners that saved the crash caused the ramp this week. That's right, from the brink of total disaster to adding 800 DOW points and NOTHING has been fixed or solved (nor will it ever be).

Morning Post 11/30/11, SPX

What did you expect other than Santa to show up after all the news that had been flowing and a BAC downgrade? Stupid rabbit, bailouts are for banks! I guess the AD last night "Livin on the Edge" was spot on, cause they sho as hell came to the rescue overnight.

Lunacy -

And does anyone care to explain the 10% pop in BAC after a downgrade along with 36 of its brethren? Standard And Poors Reviews 37 Global Banks, Downgrades Bulk - Full List Attached | ZeroHedge

A 50 point move OVERNIGHT in the minis from 1183 low (where have I heard that number before? ON THE NUMBER!) to 1235 (1236 is second resistance and 1230 IHnS target we were discussing this week, the ABC scenario we have been discussing)? The technical set up was leading to a major move south. They had to make a move that just flat out blew thru major 1218 resistance. I am now eyeballing another potential IHnS that targets 1253. Bears be warned, moves like this are what got October kicked off, and we all know how corrupt the entire system is.

This is raw insanity, cause once again nothing has changed structurally or fundamentally. This is a stop gap measure that generates near term appearance that all is well printing more money and once again heading further in the wrong direction. My November swoon continuing into December was coming in a big way and this emergency action is the proof. "This means that the global situation is far, far more dire than the talking heads have said." Here Comes The Global, US-Funded Liquidity Bail Out | ZeroHedge.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/29/11 - Livin On the Edge

Sorry if these get a bit long, but they remain vitally important and are always fresh. Please take the time to read thru the post and click thru to learn more. I also ask that you share these with friends and family that need to be warned of the coming situation.

If there is one thing that should scare the shit out of you, it is the MF Global theft of over a billion dollars of cash from brokerage accounts just like the ones you have now. Where is all of this money and why has it not been returned to the rightful owners? Well after a MONTH of investigation apparently no one knows where all that money went. Now that is some real freaky scary shit right there.

For months we've been in a Ferrari burning it down the Italian mountainside testing the limits of the suspension and tires. Well, now those tires are getting worn and we've entered a particularly dangerous stretch of road near the mountain tops where no guard rails exist on the ever increasing hairpin turns. With each turn there is a little more fishtail and slide and it now appears one if not two tires are leaving the asphalt and getting into the slippery gravel on the shoulder.

Morning Post 11/29/11, SPX

STB has been hitting hard on the Iran issues in the AD for weeks now. It appears some tensions have boiled over and now we have actual conflict. Iran Update: Six (Or Eight) UK Embassy Staff Taken Hostage: Iran Contra Redux? | ZeroHedge. I was not long ago STB was discussing Iran and wars and market crashes. 

Print or die or die printing, that is the dilemma facing the EU right now. "The amount tops the 247 billion that 178 banks took last week and is the second week running that demand hit a new two-year high. In other words, despite demanding the most amount of money in 2 years, the banks were unable to flip all that cash and "sterilize" monetized paper." ECB Fails To Sterilize Bond Purchases, €9 Billion Shortfall Confirms Euro Bank Liquidity Freeze | ZeroHedge. Just follow the liquidity train.

Thinking about this earlier, what is the new reality with Italy? We used to fawn over rates sub 6% and fear above 7%. Then 7% became reality and now are we to rejoice rates sub 8% and greet them like all is well? "Confirming just how much the market has lost it, at just after 5 am Eastern when the news of today's Italian auction as announced, the EURUSD soared by almost 100 pips on news that the auction had not failed." Italy Prices €7.5 Billion In New Bonds At Unsustainable Yields, Market Rejoices If Only For A Few Minutes | ZeroHedge  

Monday, November 28, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/28/11 - Welcome Back to Reality

The new normal - Ramp on a rumor and give little back when the news was no news after all. I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday. I enjoyed being away from all the news for a few days. Sadly, nothing has changed and if took about an hour to be welcomed back to reality this morning.

Welcome back to reality - 


Presented without Shanktification as the headlines flow just fine on their own.

Calculated Risk: Wolfgang Münchau: "Only days to avoid collapse" of eurozone, Currency Market prepares for breakup

Moody's: "The Probability Of Multiple Defaults By Euro Area Countries Is No Longer Negligible" | ZeroHedge

Britain draws up emergency plans for collapse of Euro as warnings Italy needs £500bn bailout | Mail Online

Morning Post 11/28/11, SPX

"The reasons for the rally are largely based on headlines and rumors out of Europe and being too pessimistic about what happens if there is no “solution”." Sounds like the same 'ol same 'ol thang, "it seems the main reason for a market rally is the amrageddon-like scenario of the break-up and the typical belief that 'the-worse-it-gets, the-better-it-will-be-in-the-end', so buy." Grand Plan 2 Or Grasping At Straws? | ZeroHedge

Did you catch that "too pessimistic" part? Well, if you have been reading this blog for the last 2.5 years and especially this past month then I want to know their definition of "too pessimistic"? Wait for the AD later today. I have 4 days of head lines to bowl you over with.

None of that matters. Nothing matters other than what the grand puppet masters decide. We are living in a time like no other where market manipulation, fraud, corruption and greed drive the system from its core. The only thing that will stop the charade is when their system literally implodes from the weight of the debt they continue to pile on. Remember, do the math.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Morning Post 11/25/11, SPX

Well, Europe did not blow up yesterday. I thought it might. Still could be an interesting weekend,

I hope all had a good Thanksgiving.

Daily SPX - 


Have a great weekend.

Remember the reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Turkey Day Post 11/24/11 - Imanent Disaster

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge and pass the punkin pie please. Enjoy this one cause next year's is gonna really suck. Be thankful now cause you're gonna be pissed later.

Not sure what I will do for Friday.  There will be a post, but it will be limited.

Sorry to bring you all this crappy news, but you must see it and feel it. No longer can we live in denial. This shit is real and it is an enormous problem. As STB pointed out many months ago - it is all about liquidity - show me the money! Sadly there isn't any to show as they burned (stole) it all.

I've been telling you literally for years the math does not work and global default is the only answer. I've been telling you to have plenty of cash at home (with many other things). So what happens when the banks all freeze up? Well, the O-MFG event has been going on for over a month now with no resolution or return of the stolen investor capital. Think about that long and hard.

Morning Post 11/23/11, SPX

Early post for early comments.

Contagion Shakes The Euro Core As 10 Year German Bund Auction A "Complete And Utter Disaster" | ZeroHedge http://bit.ly/sm51PS

Minis under yellow channel support that had been holding all week and should destrpy the divergences I was showing on the 15 and 30m yesterday.

Minis 5m -


Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/22/11, SPX

And why was the super committee a massive failure and what about all those trillions of cuts that get immediately enacted? HAHAHAHAHAHA, they wrote the bill. They knew what they were doing in August when they wrote it. "But the big federal deficit reductions that are to be triggered by Monday's super-committee collapse wouldn't kick in until January 2013. And that allows plenty of time for lawmakers to try to rework the cuts or hope that a new post-election cast of characters — possibly a different president — will reverse them." It is all MEANINGLESS! HAHAHAHAHAHA Congress Has Over a Year to Thwart Spending Cuts - US Business News - CNBC

Question of the day - can the 1 thru 10 year yields all reach zero? Well with the 5 year going sub 1% today, we're on the right path to get there. $35 Billion In 5 Year Bonds Price Below 1% For First Time Ever | ZeroHedge. How's that interest rate in your bank account doing? Think those insurance policies are going to perform for you?

Morning Post 11/22/11

Another numerology day.

Another scary day as the failure of the super committee to even make an effort to resolve this nations spending problem defines the day. Politicians suck. As documented here and in many other places on the web, our representatives are there to serve themselves via insider trading, receiving funds and favors from special interest groups, and to set up their lucrative post rep years. If you think these people give a shit about America you need to think twice. Maybe some do (Ron and Rand), but the rest are a sham.

I've got news for everyone, the days of this country just floating along without any representation in DC are over. The time has come to have to pay the piper for all of the great music over the past 20 years. Guess what? Someone will now have to put on their big boy pants and step up to make some real meaningful decisions. Sadly, these people have proven themselves not capable of that. You see at this point anything they do will cause them to lose their lucrative job, so they do nothing. At this point they all will most likely be voted out, so they do nothing.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/21/11, SPX

Tough day for STB with computer all bogged down and no solution in sight. Reduced to surfing and working in safe mode. This must be a good one, cause with all the previous hacks and such I have this thing as locked down as possible.

Let's jump on into the news shall we. Things are really bad, I just don't have time to elaborate on all the financial doom there is out there right now. Let me hit what I can.

Can they pay their bills? "December is the first month with very significant maturities as more than $52bn comes due, with $14.9bn next week alone." $52.5 Billion In Virtually Free US Bank Debt Due Next Month | ZeroHedge

I just told someone close to me yesterday that the insurance companies were in danger. ROFLMAO 4 to 6% returns in a non correlated risk averse asset my ass. That's funny. Scramble From European Insurers Accelerates: ASSGEN, Allianz CDS Soar | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 11/21/11, SPX

STB having computer issues this morning (carryover from Friday), so Post will be late and developing as I have time. Running in safe mode while doing a full system scan (after cash clean and registry scan) is like a gazillion percent faster. Something is bad wrong with my PC.

Futures holding round level 1200 for now. Once they got back thru 1218 that was all she wrote as the October run should be taken back. STB November swoon better late than never. Like the July call they both topped early in the month and too thru the next month to fully materialize.

I told you the debt ceiling would be a disaster. I did miss in the rhetoric and bitching call. Not sure how they kept things so quiet, but I assume since they are not doing anything then there is nothing to bitch about. Bottom line is when you have spendocrats and republicons running the show nothing of substance will ever be achieved. Keep looking for that last massive easing to come. They are too deep into the lie to turn back now.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Open Weekend Post 11/19-20/11


You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Don't forget the new poll on  the right ============>

Not sure if we should have another Shanky Summit Sunday night, but I will be here watching the futures just in case something is of interest. Nothing like them slipping in some strange market action during a holiday week. They need to quell the fear, but that appears to be impossible at this time as even the dumbest of the sheeple are now seeing thru the smokescreen. To those thinking about bank holiday next weekend (for the third year in a row), the thoughts are worth considering. Super committee this week. I think they punt and defer to the automatic cut features as they are incapable of cutting anything and this would be a great out where the blame is on the law and not the politicians. Things are really bad out there now. there is no denying it. Very, very scary.

Go figure - US Deficit-Cutting Talks Appear to Be Near Collapse

Morning Post 11/18/11, SPX

Well, surprise, surprise, surprise another crisis averted (for now). The frequency of these events that used to be spread a year apart are now occurring in near weekly fashion. It won't be long till they don't avert one. The methods for each stick save are becoming increasingly adventurous as well. With Germany not willing to go all Wiemar again and China keeping its wallet in its pocket the end game seemes upon us as the lenders of last resort fall by the wayside.

In European Banks Find Depositor-Of-Last-Resort. For Now! | ZeroHedge has, "In our ever-so-humble opinion, this should be added near the top of the list of crisis canaries-in-the-coal-mine as the cracks of desperation appear more and more across the largest and most-levered financial firms in the world." This should scare the hell out of you after the O-MFG crisis and all the news in the AD last night.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/17/11 - Time To Get Serious

I'll get to the market news in a bit - this stuff is just too hilarious not to cover.

Well with Reuters tweeting that the House has passed a bill that would fund the government thru December 16th, at least we don't have to worry about government shutdowns till the week before Christmas. That's the good news. Actually if you can call the government having to pass debt spending on a monthly basis cause they have not had a budget for over 900 days now and are $15 trillion in debt (excluding FRE and FNM) good news, then how bad are things?

Of course if you vote to simply have unlimited spending authority that would just end all the suspense - GOP House Will Vote on Balanced Budget Amendment That Permits Unlimited Federal Spending | CNSnews.com

Morning post 11/17/11, SPX


Let's start our day with this nugget - "At the close of business on Tuesday, the debt of the federal government exceeded $15 trillion for the first time--with the largest single owner of the publicly held portion of that debt being the Federal Reserve." Fed Now Largest Owner of U.S. Gov’t Debt—Surpassing China | CNSnews.com.

You need to think about that long and hard. Wrap you mind around what it says. Now, we somehow still have Obummer for a president who has increased the national debt over 41% since he took office, a corrupt congress, a Fed in total control of the economic collapse and Wall Street and the banksters raking in every penny they can of stimulus funds. Things are looking up! Or are they?

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/16/11 - CRACK!

OK, we opened this morning with the news There's Your Official Warning From The Fed | ZeroHedge. Then later in the day we received Fed To Hike Current Coupon MBS Margins | ZeroHedge. As I said earlier, if the Fed is dropping into protection mode, then you should be as well. Following the Fed's moves has been the key to everything in this market for the past two years. Now is not time to change strategies.

I often speak of corruption and fraud (OK, I do it all the time), and there are some out there that just don't get it or believe me when I pen such things. As usual STB confirmation is always pleasing to hear. It is especially pleasing when it comes from the horses mouth. Please read the following two links closely.

This will give you a warm and fuzzy feeling. An Insight into Tim Geithner's Respect for Law and Constitutions from EconomicPolicyJournal.com gives you, "He said, in a somewhat irritated fashion, that "there are ways to get around these things". So much for constitutions. Then he added. "It's not rocket science [to get around these things]"." That's comforting to know.

Morning Post 11/16/11, SPX

The one bit of news that is screaming at me this morning - "But the move could provide an extra layer of protection for the Fed against the risk that a dealer bank goes belly up." Fed To Hike Current Coupon MBS Margins | ZeroHedge. Hmmm Fed moving into protection mode - maybe you should as well. STB is all about following the Fed. Maybe this is a signal that Duck and Cover drills should be put into practice.

SPX Daily - The most important thing to note here is price levels to lack of strength in the indicators. In almost all of the indicators below they continued to weaken as price set a higher low. Note the lack of strength under the 1220 low compared to the 1230 low. The CCI really stands out to me.

This consolidation I have been showing could still break either way. I lowered the blue wedge support diagonal on this chart effectively resetting the D point of the rising wedge. This may be right or wrong. For my drop, pop, diverge and fail scenario I still need some more upside. Bottom line is this market is always a rumor from a ramp and a default from a crash.


Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/15/11

I should just stop the post right here with this one -

JPMorgan To Issue CMBS Backed By... Defaulted Loans | ZeroHedge. So, how do you tell when your Ponzi/ripoff/corrupt/fraudulent/rigged system is scraping the bottom of the barrel? Well, bundling and selling defaulted loans would be a good place to start. Do you think they will do a better job than Citi and others in disclosing this "crap" to investors? Sadly, there will be a buyer (gun to head), and that buyer will lose their shirt, but the banks will make billions in fees. All is well in the land of unicorns and lollipops.

Of course I could have just stopped with this one as well -

ECB Member Tells The Truth: Debt Monetization Is The Beginning Of The End | ZeroHedge. We've discussed this to the point of no return at STB for months if not years. Nice to hear someone with some sort of street cred coming out and actually admitting it.

Or this one -

Morning post 1/15/11, SPX

Running a bit late this morning, sorry.

A couple of simple charts to tell the story -

Minis Daily - Here are all the meaningful trendlines, channels and wedges. Believe it or not I am finally starting to make some sense of this mess as form comes into play finally.


Monday, November 14, 2011

Afternoon Delight - 11/14/11

Nice quiet, dull, no/low news event day. Makes for a nice change.

UPDATE: Harbinger of DOOM - "If we continue to bail out banks and bankers so they can continue to lose money, if we cavalierly put this burden on the taxpayer, it is all too predictable what will happen here." Ron Paul: "It Is Estimated That US Banks Have Over A Trillion Dollars Tied Up At-Risk With German And French Banks" | ZeroHedge. And now you know why you keep bailing out the EU (with YOUR money) via the IMF, EFSF or whatever other under ocean pipeline they have to use. Remember the longer it takes for this to implode and the more money they throw at it, the worse the ultimate outcome. As noted here and on several other sites, the O-MFG, Jefferies, Barklays and today BlackRock events are all warning signs of what's to come. LEH will look like nothing compared to the next collapse.

I've told you for a long time that our financial and economic voodoo was the cause for all of this and that it would come back to haunt us. That time is apparently coming sooner than later. "Since the onset of U.S. subprime crisis in 2007, it was the country's domestic economic problems that triggered a disastrous financial crisis that swept the world. Excessive spending for many years has added up debts." Main China Daily Xinhua Pens Epic Anti-US Tirade, Bashes America As Source Of All Global Financial Ills | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 11/14/11, SPX

STB is still kind of speechless. Hard to believe isn't it. I went quiet Friday and stayed in my cave all weekend. May be it is utter frustration finally catching up. Have no fear, I will be here and speaking my peace till the end, but the recent idiocy of the global financial Ponzi/fraud really has me miffed. If any of us ran our financial house like this we'd all have been thrown in jail long ago.

I am still very bearish on November. My main opposition to the call is the EU illegally printing, the corruption and fraud continuing, the bots of course and the rumor mill that all will be saved. On my side is everything that is reality and the debt ceiling vote.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Open Weekend Post - 11/12-13/11

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

Happy Veterans Day (weekend) - thanks to all those that serve and served.

I'll post it if I find it.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 11/11/11 - Veterans Day - This Country is F'd Up!

Happy Veterans Day. Tho those of you with the day off enjoy the long weekend. Remember to thank a veteran if you see one for their service to our country.

"Veterans Day, formerly Armistice Day, is an annual United States holiday honoring military veterans. It is a federal holiday that is observed on November 11. It is coincides with other holidays such as Armistice Day or Remembrance Day, which are celebrated in other parts of the world and also mark the anniversary of the signing of the Armistice that ended World War I. (Major hostilities of World War I were formally ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918 with the German signing of the Armistice.)" Veterans Day - Wikipedia

I often mention that if our forefathers that fought for the liberation of this country would be rolling over in their graves if they could see this country today. Even some of the the current military don't like whats happening here now -



Thursday, November 10, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/10/11 - Just Numb

No comments from me today. I'm pretty much numb. Numb from the 1000th stick save. Numb from the "experts" that believe they can solve a debt crisis with more debt. Numb from the fraud and corruption that are rampant throughout the global system. Numb from the constitutional abuse and loss of natural freedoms as the police state expands. Numb from the reality that is Pen State. What have we become? Why have we allowed this to happen? Why are we doing nothing to stop it, any of it?

Market News -

"And now they are refusing to even acknowledge this transaction, and apparently the management of MF Global is not yet talking. Why? Because it was an insider deal, and they don't want to give back the stolen money." Jesse's Café Américain: MF Global's Customer Assets - STOLEN - And Nothing You Hold In This System Is Safe

Hey, if you don't want to hear it from me, then why not from one of the most conservative and respected money men of all time? Rogers: “100% Chance Of Crisis Worse Than 2008,” Italy Implodes Alex Jones' Infowars.

Begging behooves them. World has Major Funding Gap; IMF Begs Russia and China for Money; Italy and Greece Demand Deposits Collapse; Run on Greek Banks? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Morning Post 11/10/11

So, they threw a few buckets of water and calmed the fire down. Don't lose faith bears. Patience will be required. As you have heard me say many times, they are cornered and fighting with all they have to save whats left of an imploding system. Please see, Snap Reactions To Italy's €5 Billion Bill Auction, Which Reeks Of Illegal ECB Intervention | ZeroHedge, "since the ECB is prohibited by law from intervening in the primary, auction market, we wonder just what illegal backdoor funding scheme the ECB has concocted with friendly banks in order to have the auction price where it did, and how much money was transferred by back door channels to keep Europe from imploding one more day."

Minis Daily - Channels, wedge, support and resistance - it is all here.


Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/09/11 - Game Plan - War?

For those that do not read the blog regularly and do not read the comments, you miss a majority of what I have to say and where my thoughts are more generally and liberally presented. I will try to summarize what I think the game plan is for the current situation.

As STB called from 1290 drop then pop and rise to set daily divergences then go poof. SPX cash came within 8 points of my targeted area yesterday. STB has been calling for a miserable November for some time now. So far so good on both accounts.

Now, STB has been on this larger call for some time - They need an event or market crash to allow for the debt ceiling vote to be more accommodating and to scare the markets into allowing one more massive stimulus. A move to 1040 should allow for that.

Morning Post 11/09/11, SPX

Not sure I need to cover the why the market is falling portion this morning. Not sure Blogger allows enough character space to cover all the reasons. What you need to know is they can intervene, but they can't stop it. Think about an "inevitable" situation in your mind. Go ahead, find one that you can visualize, and picture the slow, long, agonizing demise to utter and complete failure.

I picture skydiving and your first parachute was tangled, so you had to go to the backup chute. You pull the backup at 10,000 feet and notice it has a small rip.  Now picture that rip slowly growing and your decent picking up speed. At some point that chute fails and you are in free fall. Welcome to the euro zone and the global financial systemic collapse. At this point we're already on the backup chute and that rip is growing. The free fall part .... I think you get it.

I say I think you get it, but then most really don't. They can't wrap their minds around where we're headed. They see the markets and never ending intervention and something saving the system. It is like a really well scripted Hollywood horror show, except in this one, no one survives except the boogeyman.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/08/11 - Asteroid Edition

All I can say is that it is a good thing NASA does not hire FRB economists to do their math for them. Let's hope and pray this group at NASA is the only government group we can count on to do reliable math. Once decimal off on this one and it would be catastrophic. Look up in the sky. It is a bird, no it's plane, no it's Bernanke, no it is a really big rock on a near collision course with earth. I have to ask the question - What if they are lying about this as well?

"Fortunately for us, NASA predicts the murderous cosmic body will miss our planet by about 202,000 miles, passing around 6:28 p.m. on Tuesday. That's about 0.85 times the distance to the moon, NASA says. The last time an asteroid this size came this close to Earth was in 1976, and it shouldn't happen again until 2028 -- provided we're still here." Massive, unstoppable rock hurtles toward Earth - WTOP.com.

Market News - Ramp on!

Morning Post 11/08/11 - Asteroid Day!

It is asteroid day! Huge asteroid headed for close encounter with Earth, "It is the first time since 1976 that an object of this size has passed this closely to the Earth." Want to see a picture of the large rock? NASA Captures New Images of Large Asteroid Passing Earth.

Speaking of close encounters, the White House says no evidence of aliens, but leaves the door open with, "noting that many scientists and mathematicians believe that, statistically speaking, odds are high that there is life somewhere among the "trillions and trillions of stars in the universe"".

I 100% agree with that statement and apparently NASA does as well. For some reason they like to take a lot of pictures of space dust doing miraculous things (seems like a good use of their time and taxpayer funds to me). See here and also Shanky's favorite UFO video of all time here (once again they have a great interest in capturing images of space dust moving in ways dust does not here on earth).

Monday, November 7, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/07/11

It is only a matter of time. Can the bears remain solvent?

Worst Case Scenario - 

I was hoping they would be putting a worst case scenario together - looks like they got one. OK, now if they have gone to these lengths what does that tell you? And now I ask, do you have a worst case scenario plan in place?

"2) the German taxpayer became the Eurozone's "de facto bailout provider."  Mayer proposes a "Chapter 11 for Eurozone countries," which would place troubled members under economic supervision until they put their house in order." Wikileaks Exposes German Preparations For "A Eurozone Chapter 11" | ZeroHedge

Meanwhile "Global Bailout Fallback Plan B" China Is Pumping 1 Trillion RMB Into Its Banks | ZeroHedge

"As the European debt crisis edges closer to a break up of the euro zone, financial regulators may be reaching for emergency manuals that have gathered little dust since the last crisis." Analysis: U.S. bailout manuals handy if Europe crisis widens | Reuters

Morning Post 11/07/11

First let me thank everyone for attending the Shanky Emergency Summit last night. The conversation was great and very informative. If you care, go read the comments from last night. All the regulars were there sharing links, charts and their opinions of the markets.

Well tomorrow night the asteroid passes closer to the earth than the moon. (Huge asteroid headed for close encounter with Earth - Yahoo! News)The apocalyptic thoughts that come with the possibility of a collision are dreadful. We've been promised by the experts that it will not hit earth and we're all safe for another 100 years or so till it makes its return trip.

I'm not sure that the same can be said for the asteroid that is know as the debt bubble. Instead of one large rock, this one hit the atmosphere and fractured into about 10 large chunks. They are landing all over the globe and not in safe places.

Just like the real asteroid, the experts have promised that all will be well and that you and your money are safe. Well these experts (global leaders and the financial masters of the universe) are losing street cred pretty fast. Wall Street Journal Lays It Down: "Merkel And Sarkozy Have Lost Credibility" | ZeroHedge. It is about time that someone is finally calling BS on the magical all will be well we can fix it charade that is the euro zone. Guess what? It won't be long till someone calls out the US, Japan, China and every other nation that has been pulling your strings either.

As brutally beat into the ground here at STB, liquidity is the issue. The big bets and debts have lost their backing. The multi-levered instruments of financial destruction that drove the spectacular yet unrealistic growth over the past 15 years are about to implode. The clues of the big money grab are all around. MFG, HSBC, treasury sales, overnight lending maxed out, BAC further dilution, banks not allowing you to close accounts are just some of the many examples that exist.

Switching here to the another hot stove event right now, the US debt ceiling vote, which is on 11/23, just be ready. This puppy is about to explode.

An the one event that I think no one is making a big enough deal over - the potential for a was with Iran. Watch oil over the next two weeks (and go fill up your car now).

Summing up where I have been for some time now - STB looking for one last pop here if it can to set double top and divergence, then we get a major move south. That can be the move or not. That move south needs to start pretty soon. I have been speculating they would crash the markets to make the debt ceiling vote more accommodating and allow for a larger raise. This would then allow for the Fed to move in with a massive easing.

The Iran war possibility within the next two weeks could help this cause, because you know the administration (that needs a war badly) would then invoke some sort of bullshit clause to bypass the Constitution and congress to be able to spend whatever they like when they like (so nothing would change essentially).  This war has to happen before they bring the reactor online, so be ready for it.

Weekly target chart - Book it to 1040, mega stick save with massive QE and then the final rockets burn out, or does it just implode? Right now implosion looks like the best option, but you never know.



Minis Daily - That red rectangle I have been showing for quite some time looms large above. I don't think it gets there, but you never know. If I get the move back near 1290, then my call for a pullback and move up to set divergences will come off perfectly.



Minis 30m - Pinched between 1256 resistance and lower wedge support. If 1256 goes a move to backtest (again) the busted green channel support would be the first target then double resistance from the old yellow channel resistance (yellow) and the upper wedge diagonal (blue) should be the max. On the bearish side, if the blue support goes here you better look out, cause this next fall is going to be spectacular.


SPX Daily - The question is how many more rumor driven unsubstantiated short squeeze ramps can they manufacture? This chart looks very tired. Upside is possible, but it will be limited and a struggle from here. To much resistance and overbought are not good combinations.


Remember the reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Shanky's Sunday Night Summit - Sorting out the Confusion

The whole reason for this gathering is to sort thru the clutter,corruption, lies, risk on, aglo driven, liquidity lacking, insolvent, bankrupt, rumor driven bullshit market. What I want is a healthy discussion from both bulls and bears on where the markets may be headed and why. I  know it is my job here to do the calling and all that, but I want to hear your thoughts.

I know that all we will discuss will be pure speculation. One thing I believe most of us know is that this all ends horribly. The question is how long can they hold out? How will they hold out? Can the markets set a higher high? Show your charts, links and whatever you have to back up your thoughts.

If some of you would like to discuss preparedness as well, please feel free. This will be a comment driven  event with many tangents. I have no idea how disqus will handle the pressure (if we get a good turn out), but deal with it.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Open Weekend Post 11/05-06/11

UPDATE - Times are dire and there are lots of questions - come prepared to the Shanky Summit - Sunday night at 9:00.

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. You won't find much love in the below links. Reality is harsh and growing more so by the day.

New poll question ==========>

Note to the lurkers - I am still moderating comments - I try to get to then as I can. If you are good you get whitelist - if you are leaving links to your blog you get spammed immediately. All are welcome and the rules are simple - respect others at all times and stick to business. Jump on in.

I got one thing to say, you better be ready, cause barring the most massive cash airlift Helicopter Ben has ever done, you are staring meltdown in the eyes and it ain't blinkin.


Turn it up!




I got a link fest for you this weekend -

Yes, a war should be coming- what's the big deal? They basically need to hit the facility before they drop the rods and start a nuclear reaction. Israeli PM orders investigation into Iran leak| World news | guardian.co.uk

Your taxpayer funds doing their part (1) - U.S. Has Been Providing Turkey with $1 Million a Day to Fight Kurdish Minority - Sibel Edmonds' Boiling Frogs Post | Home of the Irate Minority

Your taxpayer funds doing their part (2) - State Department training Islamic political parties in Egypt - By Josh Rogin | The Cable

What can we expect after we beg out military to remove those in power - Hand of Egypt's military rulers grows heavier -  My Way News

Yes, Soros was behind at least some of it - ACORN Officials Scramble, Firing Workers And Shredding Documents, After Exposed As Players Behind Occupy Wall Street Protests | Fox News

Don't believe all the rosy shows and videos - Detroit is a total mess - Detroit in extremely serious fiscal shape: mayor | Reuters

More on Detroit - DDOT Drivers Refuse To Work: ‘They’re Scared For Their Lives’ « CBS Detroit

More muni issues - Unable to pay bill, Mich. city turns off lights - Yahoo! Finance

As STB told you years ago - they will fine everything that is not nailed down - they must have the income - Denver Collects Fines On Drivers Who Stop At Red Lights « CBS Denver

This has to be total BS. How can a minimized economy generate more than anytime in history? The cows must be working OT - "The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global warming." Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gases - Yahoo! News

Police state being finalized? This is scary stuff if you have the forethought to see where it is leading - Anxiety over upcoming test of US emergency system

This is a must read and even worse than the last post - Guest Post: This Is The Only Way To Change The System | ZeroHedge

Obummer bashing - HypocriteMF Global ties awkward for Obama campaign - The Washington Post

Scared? You should be - now they aren't letting HSBC customers get their funds? A glitch or must they have the liquidity? HSBC Customers Impacted By "Worldwide Meltdown" Of All Retail Services | ZeroHedge

Speaking of liquidity issues - MF Bankruptcy Causes Biggest Foreign Bank Liquidity Scramble To 'Fed Safety' Ever, Harbinger Of Major Eurobank Stress | ZeroHedge

Sure, this is possible - they can create 12.6 million jobs over the next 4 years. They are off to a great start. the last 4 years they generated .... woops - US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term | ZeroHedge

And you were wondering why Germany can't come to the rescue? Don't be stupid, all along they were waiting to lean on the IMF and the US taxpayer to come to the rescue - Former Bundesbank President Weber Warns Germany Will Be On The European Bail Out Hook For Up To 314% Of Its GDP | ZeroHedge

All the important dates you need to know for November but one - 11/23 the debt ceiling vote - Making Sense Of The Chaos: Europe's Calendar Of Events For The Rest Of November | ZeroHedge

More financial chicanery - all is well - we got this one right - wait - we don't? - round three of the Jefferies farce - Jefferies Releases Yet Another Set Of Numbers On Its European Exposure That Differ From 24 Hours Ago | ZeroHedge


and of course - NO ONE GOES TO JAIL  - This is either a miracle or the biggest bunch of bullshit you have ever heard - Did Jamie Dimon Just Stop Jon Corzine From Going To Jail? | ZeroHedge  "Ignore the fact that MF admitted it had commingled and abused client funds. After all, the big boys take care of their own. And what is $660 million to JPM?" WAIT - it was some of MFG's money, but not THAT money. Seriously? Here we go again. JPMorgan Denies Holding Missing MF Global Funds - Report — US Business News - CNBC

To emphasize the above chicanery - "One of the long-term recurring themes both here and in other more objective media, has been the encroaching domination of the central planning regime, or monetary authorities, read central banks, in the domain of capital markets and overall broad sovereignty, to the point where there is neither technical nor fundamental analysis left, but merely the question of where is the next batch of excess liquidity going to come from." Fall Of The House Of Money: Artemis Capital On How €entral Banking Took Over Capital Markets... And The World | ZeroHedge


I'll put up a chart if I find one worth posting.

Have a great weekend. I'd start stocking up on food, silver coins, seeds and ammo if I were you.

GL and GB