Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Morning Post 12/13/11, Chartapalooza day!

Let's look at some LT weekly charts.

EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.

Dollar - /DX - Quite disturbing to see the reality of the dollar. Purchasing power? Interesting to have seen the dollar and SPX rise together recently, but the trend for both this year has been a muddling process at best. Will our fiat explode as the safe haven when (not if) the EUR bites the dust? If it does I give it $92 or the upper channel resistance best case. Recently I've been on that $81 resistance that is just above. Remember a cheap dollar makes our debt even less expensive and this may be max pain for the Fed if they can continue to keep price devalued.

Oil - /CL - That lower support diagonal started in 2001, so you are looking at a 10 year wedge formation. $71 support is key. None of this matters if we get WWIII and Iran cuts off the straight. Also remember that the Saudis and others like to have oil around $85 to support their entitlement states (thus the floor/range you can see back to '09).

Gold - /YG - That green channel runs back to '08. The pink diagonal acting as support here runs back to '06. If gold lets go I'd be a buyer near 1571 support. Of course it may not get there. This PM is the one that's worth more than its weight. STB has been on the call that when the markets finally crash everything crashes. Yes, even gold, but gold's crash will only be temporary and all those exiting assets will find their way into gold. Look for an extreme to be the weekly 200ma at 1227. Gold is not in a bubble.

Silver - /SI - Looks to be channeling down at this time but also being held up by the backtest of busted resistance. Several obvious points if things breakdown. Green support, the $19.70 level and then the lower LT support near $10. I think worst case in a crash you get the green support and the weekly 200ma near $24 if not that then $19.70 should hold. Buy with both hands there.

AUD/JPY - The most intervened chart (IMO from the Japanese side). Clear support here at $73 level. Does not look all that healthy.

Natgas - /NG - STB's favorite economic indicator! If ya ain't usin NG then thar ain't nuttin happnen, plain and simple. I still think it hits $2.60 if not worse. That LT 1.61 number looks pretty tasty after the coming crash as well. The recent bust of that blue support diag is not healthy.

10 Year Treasury - What can you say other than the massive rising wedge is playing out and may have completed the formation. Only one way to go soon.

Minis 60m - Channeling down into 1218 support and the subsequent bounce there as top (and warned by me yesterday) but the 60m divergences.

Minis 1m with VWAP and Vbands - Submitted for your viewing pleasure. Is it any surprise that 1236 is a sticking point for upside action? Well it was till after the bad retail news this AM price spikes to the upper channel resistance for this move. If this insanity continues, the look to green down channel resistance near 1246 and an extreme of 1257.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

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