Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Morning Charts 09/30/2014 SPX /es

The PIMpCO situation may be a bit more than a bump in the road. If rumors are correct and something akin to $200 billion is about to be run through the not so liquid markets we may see haircuts as the carnage intensifies. CDS and MBS triggers are very possible. We may actually experience a JPM moment. 

Can't you hear the conversations with advisors happening this week? 

A: Sorry Mr. Jefferson, when we sold your Total Return Fund we were only able to redeem 97%, so you get a 3% haircut just to get out. Uh, yes sir, there will be a 15% tax on that long term hold as well. 

Mr. J: What's that? You are pissed? 

A: Wait....sir. You want to redeem those funds in cash? OK, first you have to sign this government form telling us exactly what you intend on doing with this cash. 

Mr. J: So they are gonna put me on a terrorist list and treat me like a common criminal cause I want my cash? 

A: No sir, it's nothing like that. Nothing at all. 

Mr. J: I want my funds immediately? 

A: Well .... we will get them to you when available. Since they closed the gates there may be a waiting period you have to endure before we can release your funds. 

Mr. J: Closed the gates? WTF does that mean? 

A: You see the Fed may have anticipated runs on bond funds back in June and have kinda changed to rules on who actually controls your money

Mr. J: Controls MY money? Fuck off. This conversation is going down hill faster than you want it to Mr. A. I'm losing 3% just to liquidate and you are putting me on a terrorist list. 

A: Whoa. We're not putting you on a terrorist list. Yes, you did get a 3% haircut when we sold the funds but that is just what happens in mass selling like this. 

Mr J: So, is there any more bad news I need to know about? 

A: Well sir, with the gates closed there is a rather good chance you will get another haircut when we do a mass liquidation at the firm for all the good folks like you that want their money  back. 

Click. 

A: It's a good thing he did not ask me about what's gonna happen when he tries and get his funds out of his bank. 

Quickly on the collapsing Obozo calamity which only continues to worsen (which will only continue to worsen). So this dipwad is figuring out that the race card does not play every time he needs it, and Holder, Pelosi, Reid and Co are no longer there defending his every failure. One truly is the loneliest number, even when you are "the most powerful man" on the planet. He can't run from "We told you so - over and over and over again" no matter how hard he wants to. Fury as Obama blames intelligence agencies for Isil surprise. Sounds like someone is calling "bullshit" on potus. This once was a serious no no, but it now may become fashionableNo worries, at least he's got flotus to come home to every night. That's comforting to know. Of course - WH Denies Obama Threw Intel Agencies Under The Bus When He Blamed Them For His Inaction On ISIS…



On to the lie - 

Weekly Indicator Chart - Don't ask how or why, just accept that it is till it isn't anymore. Mr J. above better be happy to be getting out while the getting is good. They are breaking all the rules now, and this can not last. 



Monthly SPX - This looks like an awesome time to be reallocating that potential $200bn in PTAX money. 



Another Monthly Look - I'm not about to move that target box. 



One of these is not like the other and is already technically in a bear market - RUT has reached prior support levels and the last two times it did this the ramp was one for the ages (at ATH levels). Can they pull it off one more time? 





More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, September 29, 2014

Morning Charts 09/29/2014 SPX /es

Doing God's work, and to do that you have to be able to do whatever whenever. This is the GS way. When Hunsader the head of Nanex says I'm putting everything in $GS - because these guys can do whatever the hell they want, then that may be the final straw. 

The Carmen Segarra tapes should be the biggest deal ever to hit the financial industry in the US, but I have a sneaking suspicion that they will be buried with the rest of the TBTJ evidence along with the Frank-Dodd regulation initiative. 

At least one senator has balls big enough to call for an investigation into this matter (and she is a democrat). 
"When regulators care more about protecting big banks from accountability than they do about protecting the American people from risky and illegal behavior on Wall Street, it threatens our whole economy,"
Is it any wonder that that the inventor of the web is warning of a threat to freedom on the net? Not really, we've been discussing this here for years. Pick any country that has had unrest in recent years and the examples of control are rampant. China just blocked instagram

Ya think they are gonna want us to continue to be able to spread the truth and continue to scrutinize their every move? How many more whistle blowers will be allowed to release more damaging information before they have had enough? 

Remember it was just this year the FCC wanted to put monitors in news rooms around the country. Don't for get this either, it was just a year ago that congress legalized domestic propaganda in the US. Control is coming, and I suspect it will be thrust upon us after the false flag that's coming. 


On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - Precarious spot for bully. Backtesting busted wedge support and prior support without and real (not that they are necessary) positive divergences to back up this pop. 


SPX Daily - 1955, that 100dma and black support diagonal don't look like much of a correction here do they? Well, if this support should fail, then 1900 comes into play. With that potential failure some serious issues will arise, and I'd suspect some sort of panic will arise. 



More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, September 26, 2014

Open Weekend Post 09/27-28/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it share it. I'll do the same. 

I'll mess with the charts this weekend to see if I can find something amazing. I doubt that will happen in a Fed dominated and controlled market, but this is a process that must be endured. 

Markets are a a very precarious spot, not dangerous yet, just at a point where they will exert max frustration on all traders where the SPX is possibly 3/4 of the way thru a correction or about to turn Monday due to POMO. Who the heck knows? 

If you got time - 

Who Is REALLY Behind ISIS?



Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Oh, and GO USA! (Ryder Cup)

Morning Charts 09/26/2014 SPX /es

Actual good news? Is it possible? Holder out? (see Drudge for all the headlines) Oh my goodness. What sort of can of worms will this open up? Obummer's enforcer-in-chief gone with two years left of lame duck status? AJ briefly hits on some of the Crimes of Eric Holder here

I started talking about the mutiny back in June that would come (and the dangers it could lead to). This is a move I did not expect, and now potus will have only his race card left to protect him. It will be a great day for the nation when Holder (actually both of them) is gone from his post. 

There was more good news last night - Seriously - not kidding (unless this is a propaganda rouse) - FBI blasts Apple, Google for locking police out of phones

More good news (impossible - no). This is more positive posts in one night than I've posted here all year. Try this one out - Concealed carry approved in DC? Impossible you say? NFW? DC? The home of Constitutional destruction? Wow, maybe Kaypatcha hit on something yesterday in the Pele report. Are the stars aligned? 

Mish has an awesome post blasting the War in Syria and with ISIS. My favorite satire/truth about our foreign policy today, Mish concludes - 

Please look on the bright side!

  1. US GDP goes up every time we drop a bomb and the bomb is replaced with more bombs.  
  2. The more innocent kids we kill, the more enemies we make. 
  3. The more enemies we make, the more bombs we drop. 
  4. The more bombs we drop the more US GDP goes up and the more money the CEOs of defense companies make.
Gotta love the military industrial complex! Lord knows there are not any secret societies controlling things from behind the scenes. 


On to the lie - 

So, what went down with the market yesterday? Here is the laundry list of possibilities from ZH. When you get all that with a market that was technically ready to tumble, not even the CME/PPT can support the initial onslaught. I've been telling you since June that the moves south in this overbought overly nervous market would be swift and dramatic. The was witnessed in the July tumble, and I'm a bit surprised that once through 1973 today there was not more acceleration to this tumble. 

SPX Daily - This is the cleanest chart I have. Really simple, if the 34 ema cracks the 100ma (1955) is most likely to get hit. Follow the blue channel up for your ultimate support near 1909. If they lose 1909 then as I have noted I believe the serious stop loss selling hits sub 1886. There is a possible large HnS setting up to mark some sort of top with the 1900 round level as the neckline. 

That's looking very deep, and it may be getting a bit ahead of things here. You never know though, cause when the herd heads for the exits, they all will try and leave at once. Then the liquidity issues strike hard. What a cluster fuck it is going to be. NANEX will be the only one that will be able to decipher what happens then. The overthrow of the neg divs at 1900 into consecutive holiday ramps may have been a bit much and provided ATH levels for some to start taking profits at. Hmmm, has someone been suggesting taking profits? I thought so. 



More to come below.

Thanks for another great week on the blog. 

Have a great weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Morning Charts 09/25/14 SPX /es

Let's just start with the lie today - 

The hilarity of the ramp yesterday dissected by TD - Today's 3-Step Manipulation To S&P 2,000It was fairly obvious the timing of the low. I posted the underthrow on the 10m chart within 1 point yesterday. The near term over and underthrows have led to almost every turn in the past two weeks. The only question was how high they would take it? These moves are virtually undecipherable. 

SPX 15m - You can see the very slight underthrow of the positive divergences at the pink dashed line. Support was found in the 5 point area I noted yesterday morning. They had to save it or a move to 1952 would have happened rather quickly. The potential HnS can be seen here with the RS forming yesterday. The RS can top anywhere from the round number resistance up to 2007. Of course, as noted, this formation is more bullish now than bearish, and I'd give it a 1 in 10 shot of actually working for the bears. Any move above 2003 should guarantee a higher high for the bulltards. The market is basically formless right now with no discernible patterns. This happens when things are not occurring naturally. 


SPX 30m - Little better view here of what I see. A formless fall off the backtest of resistance to backtest busted red resistance near 1985 support. The 30m 100ma 200ma may hinder things here at the 50% retracement moving north. It's a crapshoot to 2003 where the 61% STB bull/bear line resides. 




More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Morning Charts 09/24/2014 SPX /es

So, why are the futures up? Well, ssdd, bad=good and when things fail and the demand for more QE, wherever on the planet, is triggered the markets rejoice. Futures Higher As Lowest German IFO Since April 2013 Prompts More Demands For ECB QE. That's all it takes. QE has not been promised or delivered in this case. It has not even been discussed, but the market and media know that with bad news comes fiat and lots of it. The worse things get, the more global economies falter, the moar the markets rejoice cause the promise that the easy money will continue to flow. 

From WB, a good read  chocked full of credible information on ISIS - ISIS Is Run By Former Iraqi Generals … Many Are Members Of Saddam Hussein’s Secular Baath Party Who Converted To Radical Islam In American PrisonsI LOL every time they give us one of these. 


"Security experts – including both conservatives and liberals – agree that waging war in the Middle East weakens national security and increases terrorism. See thisthisthisthisthisthisthis and this."



On to the lie - 

I'm watching the dollar, JPY, PMs and bonds closely right now. Turbulence is expected. 


SPX Daily -Two holiday ramps. July's overthrow gave it all back, but the Labor day move has yet to meaningfully correct or retrace any of it's gains. The chart below shows a slight pullback off the top following some severe negative divergences and very narrow BBs to a support area that is packed with barriers. Lower BB, 50dma, two diagonals and the July top. 1976 is the floor of all that support. Below that is a hole to the critical 100dma support at 1952. No one needs to panic until that 100dma goes, cause it has been the ultimate support of the SPX for close to two years now. Call it the Fed's support bogey. 



SPX 30m - Anatomy of a top? You can see this support area around 1985 is critical, but from the chart above a move to 1976 is still acceptable, so if this support fails (while bad) it's not the end of the world (yet). This is a point they would like to protect. 


More to come below. 

Have a  good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Morning Charts 09/23/2014 SPX /es

Well, apparently we are going it alone against ISIS after France and Germany declined our invitation to bomb them. Iran would go with us, but a no thank you was in order for them. Apparently Obozo has alienated the globe now. No respect I tell ya, no respect. Obummer even wears the red tie and dark suit. Sadly, he's not a comedian. 

Sad when you are the potus and the most desperate democratic candidate in the most important election in decades would rather have flotus at their side than him. How low can you go? How low can you go? Maybe the Hawaiian (??) potus is in limbo mode and no one gets the joke?

All the geopolitical balls in the air, wow, so many, and if any of them hit the ground, BOOM! That's all separate from the global financial crisis. Pick your poison. Lots to choose from, all when the worlds most powerful man is basically in a fetal position whimpering in the corner after being abandoned by every support group he has other than the most alarmist and extreme of them all. 

I've been discussing the abandonment of Obozo for sometime now and how dangerous that makes him, our enemies and these times. If our government can't pull it together sooner than later, we're in really deep trouble. In  order to pull it together, Obummer will need to be eliminated from the equation. That ain't gonna happen. He's got a pen, a fascist dictum and whatever is left of his legacy to protect.


This country have never been more dysfunctional.

 

On to the lie- 

The RUT as we discussed late last week is either leading or is setting up for one hell of a short squeeze. "Positioning among "smart money" participants in the markets continues to show major divergences. While large speculators bought S&P 500 contracts at their strongest weekely pace in more than a year - shifting to a net long position - they also increased the net short Russell 2000 position to its 'most short' in five years." Go figure, the insanity is spiking IMO. They can't have it both ways, at least not for long. Who knows, is it Time to worry? Russell 2000 hits 'death cross'



SPX Daily - Well, the turn yesterday was on no technical surprise. It should have been expected after the overthrow spike Friday and the setup. The only question is, will they stop buying? Seriously nasty negative divergences and the ultra narrow BBs we've been watching set up since the overthrow on the 16th are primed for disaster. 
 

BPSPX - Whatever. Potentially the worst instance of falling slope yet. Maybe with the RUT in a death cross and the algos in full pump mode on the SPX they are defending all they can? The DOW pump started last week before all the rest.





More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, September 22, 2014

Morning Charts 09/22/2014 SPX /es

Nothing hot coming into the week. Let's see what develops. For as many things that are on the grill, something is going to flame up sooner than later. In a fed supported news driven market, things should be rather normal till something breaks I'd suspect. 

I'd keep a close eye on the JPY. Something is really wrong there and the delayed reaction to it cold be more than painful. I suspect something is being suppressed. Like any problem that you ignore too long, things usually get worse. 

The USD explosion continues. This only males one wonder, how does overly supplied worthless fiat go up in value? 

Markets are technically a disaster zone, so, as usual, any slip and losses will be quick and dramatic. It's a long way down as well, so be prepared if this things should turn. 

On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - well, I thought this chart looked bad Friday. Guess what? It is even worse today. We just continue to drift deeper and deeper into the matrix. 1950 is the floor now for any correction. 





More to come below. 

Have a good week, 

GL and GB!