Monday, October 20, 2014

Morning Charts 10/20/2014 SPX /es

The cry for MOAR - STB's biggest fear for how long now? I'm actually surprised they were able to let the SPX drift 10% and stop it. I guess when things are this overvalued and this out of whack, what's 10% among friends? When the fall started to pick up some steam and they lost a bit of control, they bring out the big guns. 

I've remained quite calm during this spill, wondering if or when they'd start crying for moar. I was a day early on predicting the call last week. I'm not about to give you a primer on the subject. I've been harping on it for years. I'll let this ZH post summarize things. 

"And we better get moar... because the gap between perception and reality is huge..."

I'll put it as simply as I can, no QE and everything goes POOF! No matter the long term consequences. No matter the inevitable result of endless printing. Like a junkie, moar is better. Waking up from the hopium induced high will only expose the horrific surroundings we're living in. The US is now the equivalent of a rat/bug infested, trash filled, should be condemned crack house. Best to just stay as fucked up as possible for as long as we can and not sober up. 

Two words - election and Christmas (not to mention the distraction they want the market to be from all the Orwellian issues dominating the globe right now), must be considered. 

On to the lie - 

The setup allows for a move either way right here. If south the move has a chance to be even more impulsive than last week. If north, they've hit the breaks and a larger retracement should be in order. The move north depends on how much hopium they decide to inject (rumor, promise or real). 

SPX Daily - Oversold, only one positive divergence andthe MACD histogram turned Friday. Bottom line is (see past lows on the chart), they don't need any sort of technical signal to make a bottom. They can just declare one whenever they want. 

SPX 15m - Friday I noted if they kept a lower high things had potential to get hairy. Either red wedge (bear flag) scenario is not great. There is a chance of an IHnS here with a neckline at 1898. That would yield about a 1980 target. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, October 17, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/18-19/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. 

I'll update charts and post anything I find. 

I'll be an FSU fan Saturday night. I hate the Notre Dreamers. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/17/2014 SPX /es

So much to talk about, and I'm not feeling it, so ...

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - This chart kind of puts my brain in perspective. What was once an elaborate and elegant top setup has become a jumbled mess. Rising wedge, backtests, overthrows, divergences, classic breakdowns have all given way to ... a tumble that is still trying to identify itself. Was/Is the breakdown a channel, a wedge, a megaphone, a channel again or none of the above? Technical underthrows are now commonplace where for the past five years they were virtually outlawed. Oversold is now a term that I will even entertain using (lightly or temporarily). As I said yesterday, I guess when a lie comes unwound (temporarily or permanently - not sure of the case here yet) things can get a bit ugly. 

SPX 15m - Again, this is STB's brain on crack. What was once clean and neat, just the way I like it - mostly predictable following some predictable or forseable order - the bottom just keeps falling out. What's worse? Dare I say that my counting (don't do it - just don't) has worked better than anything I've been able to throw at it. Scary - if I'm counting this right - and some other count's I've looked at confirm - we're just getting started. Now let me say this, I've always, always out-called and out-timed the counters, and I will not be beat. 

Chaos - that's what breakdowns are all about. This market is like some freak transgender looking for an identity right now. It's difficult when your boyfriend/sugar daddy has sent you out into the cold having lied and misled you about reality for the past 5 years. To make things worse, he teases you about how he may actually start funding your hopium habit again. What a mess. 

I actually believe I call a falling market better than a booming one. This will be my third shot at a major breakdown - I guess it takes a bit of time getting your bearings when the poles flip. That is, if it has flipped. Let me add that I still don't think the STB "event" has happened unless Ebola is it. Another issue this time is that we've never dealt with a truly, unprecedentedly manipulated falling market before. This may be the first rodeo of such for all of us. One thing is certain - the stakes have never been higher. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GE!

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Morning Charts 10/16/2014 SPX /es

I got about half way through a rant about how the market is a distraction to reality and ebola is further distracting the masses and deleted it. It was not ... angry enough. Yesterday in the comments section I mentioned the bigger picture. I just want you all to not be blind sided from all the distractions. 

What's coming and what's being hidden are far more important than your portfolio. You live in a country on the verge of annihilation - from inside out. I know you know, and we discuss this endlessly everyday. I just want to make sure that you don't lose focus on what's truly important. Shit's about to go down that none of us want to experience. 

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - USD and TNX getting abused. Oh, price is as well. The indicators don't look well at all. Deeply oversold and the short term charts keep getting abused (even on top of a Fed cry for QE). This is extremely extreme. 

SPX 15m - The falling megaphone support busted yesterday. Excuse me? How? What? Say that again? That is a move reserved for extremes not a retracement. The short term setup going into yesterday was really good for a bounce of some sort, and that got thrown out with the second major technical underthrow in the past three days even with the Fed QE speak. The beautiful falling wedge to falling megaphone support with positive ST divergences got blown up and is now a now a falling channel.

Overall, the short term charts keep trying but can't make the turn. I have not seen technical underthrow abuse like this since '08. The daily and weekly charts are not helping the cause. They look horrific. 

I'm struggling somewhat with the excessiveness of this move at this point. Sub 1886 and it should collapse, and maybe that was the reason for the stick save late yesterday. It's deserved, no doubt. It's been overdue and expected, no doubt. It's all a lie, no doubt. Maybe the extreme case is generating the extremity? Maybe when a lie comes unwound, normalcy in its unraveling is not to be expected. 

At this time, it appears that there could be much worse to come before any form of meaningful corrective is in order. Translated - without QE they are screwed till they announce moar. Much worse is to come if they don't intervene (which they tried and failed with Williams Tuesday). The hard part now is trying to figure out what they want. Are they losing control for real, or are they allowing the fall? I don't trust them one bit. It is still their market, I think. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Morning Charts 10/15/2014 SPX /es

MOAR! I've been harping about the next potential round of QE since the Syria FF dip. STB's biggest fear. When they are cornered. When their system is dying. When it's all they have left to stay alive (even in a dying cause - even of it means complete destruction of the US), moar will be promised and potentially delivered.

I was a day early on the call for moar
"Actually, it may well be QE5, or QE6 depending on how one counts Operation Twist and the extension of QE3, but what matters is that the countdown to whatever it is, has begun courtesy of none other than one of the Fed's biggest doves, the head of the Fed which spawned Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed's John Williams"

If inflation trends were to fail Williams says - well have you checked rates lately? ZIRP is working its way into the common markets with the 30yr sub 3%. Of course there is no inflation - last time I bought a gallon of milk my CC almost got rejected it was so damn expensive. Remember the STB tuna rant. The breakfast bar rant. The snickers rant. No inflation here as long as the way you calculate things suits your needs. (hint - they do the same with employment)

It was so easy to call tops on the way up. Just look for the end of QE and POOF! go the markets. People thought I was so smart calling the '10 and '11 tops weeks and months in advance noting how terrible the subsequent months would be. I would have gotten my Q1 '13 call spot on a year and a half in advance if they had not QE4eva'd (STB's best ever tweet - "unprecedented manipulation" the moment it was announced)

All you had to know was when QE was ending. As for the bottoms - you got it - the first Hilsenrath rumor or the beginning of the next round of QE and BOOM! off to the races. Back then all they had to do was mention or promise QE was coming and the shorts got slaughtered and the race was on. Well, here we go again, except this time the markets figured it out a few weeks in advance. QE is about to end, markets are failing and they are already calling for moar. Guess what's gonna happen when the next round of QE is announced?

Up, up and away - for a moment at least. The last bull trap. The suckers rally. The move to the ultimate top where you pull everything. The moment I've been waiting for for years where I go balls deep short. The ATH may be set, but this top will be the most painful taking most off guard. For those already out, so be it. This is not a game of chicken. Take some risk capital and play the rips if you like, but no more. If you decide to stay in, think bug meets windshield. I've been telling you to take profits all the way out of the system.

You have been warned. Remember, as I have warned, they take it all back and in a hurry. I told you to take profits back in July. They have an election and Christmas season to get through - January is setting up to be a real bitch if they can save it here. Do not forget how many greedy sucker sheeple there are out there waiting for that moment, the moment of the STB "event" where they all head for the gates at once. They closed the "gates" for a reason. I think we're within 6 months of things getting really ugly - IF they manage to turn things around here. 

Side note - Ebola hits home for STB (sort of) - Bentley the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel is in isolation - I own two Cavies (Sir Winston and Spencer) and think the world of them. They are possibly the coolest sweetest dogs on the planet. I hope things work out best for him.

On to the lie - 

SPX 15m - For a more detailed description see yesterday's post - I got a little warm late yesterday talking bout double bottoms and positive divergences with a few other upwards caveats. They've blown through several bullish setups so far, another would not be a surprise. There is still a chance they have to move lower (the missing 4 and 5 - following the 1,2,3 (5-3-5) move we've already had. As noted I like to count in 3's and not 5's if I'm counting (which I hate). 

This chart says it all for me. Falling wedge, underthrow, bust up and break resistance, price falls to a double bottom backtesting busted resistance the whole way down, sets decent short term positive divergences and Williams is talking QE. If this setup fails to deliver, they got real problems.

If earnings go south, QE will come faster than stink on shit.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Morning Charts 10/14/2014 SPX /es

"someone - apparently having waited to see if the almost 'ubiquitous' 330pm Ramp would occur - decided it was time to dump three-quarters of a billion dollars notional of US equity market exposure in 1 second."

How they absorbed the trade on a liquidity-less day I have no clue, but it's shit like this that I've been warning about. A few more of these doozies and you gotta wonder who else is in line that does not want to wait in line any longer. There has never been a more dangerous time in history to be long equities IMHO.

On to the lie - 

OK I updated all of the SPX charts last night. What I found is best shown on this SPX 15m chart - Blue falling channel inside black falling megaphone with green A-E falling wedge that had its support underthrown on an E wedge touch which should finish that falling formation. There are few positive divergences on any time frame because the move through 1912 cause an underthrow situation  where the pos divs that did exist got abused (vertical pink dashed). 

As I was counting last week - after the first 5 down the clear ABC reversal to 1970 that kept under 1977 made for the top of a 2 which led to this impulsive 3 I warned could come.We now have a clear 5-3-5 move. That is about as far as I like to count things. If that is a 1-2-3 then there is a 4 and 5 to come or whatever sort of count you use to choose (I still suggest you don't count). TA has three clear patterns in play now use them. Worst case scenario is a small ABC here then a truly impulsive 3 down would follow for a third of a third.

A corrective here should finally be in order - 12, 25, 29 and 50 are the targets in order. Anything above 77 invalidates most counts unless you get a 4 and 5 move here.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Morning Charts 10/13/2014 SPX /es

Just a few headlines to start you week. 

"the Friday rout has continued into the early Sunday night trading"

"That didn't last long... NKY back under 15k as JPY collapses"

"the chief economist at China’s central bank said Saturday that he doesn’t see any reason for large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus “in the foreseeable future”"

And you may wonder why they "closed the gates" last summer

Any questions? And who's been telling you since before June that gains would simply vaporize? 

We need a good panic selling day to really get things going. Anyone ready for a DOW -500 day? Anything is possible.

On to the lie -

SPX Weekly - New chart that's real clean and shows all you need to know about the major downside support. Everything from the vertical black line - the overthrow at the beginning of 2013 should get wiped out in a hurry.

VIX whoud take out resistance at the open if futures remain the way they are. I'd say a move to38 or 42 would about do it before major response from the Fed comes.

More to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Friday, October 10, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/11-12/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will do the same. 

I'll update all sorts of stuff to get some sort of handle on thigs - up or down. 

Interesting times right now. Awfully calm giving the market levels. 

Thanks for another great week on the blog. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!