Thursday, April 17, 2014

Morning Charts and Easter 04/17/14 SPX /es

Let me see, Easter holiday and opex, those are the equivalent of saying propaganda time and rigged market in the same sentence.

Propaganda time because, as the STB theory holds, they don't want any negative thoughts or discussions invading our homes over the "happy" holiday period. They want us completely distracted, wrapped up in just how frigging well off we are as our portfolios kick ass so we can all take the extra time to go spend moar on our credit cards.

Rigged market, well, with opex today do I really need to explain this any more to the readers of STB? SPY max pain is 186 and relative pain is 192, so we should have a bit moar buying to reach equalization. I will note that it has been a rare occurrence for markets to be approaching max pain from below instead of from well above over the past several years.

As for the rest of the world, it is what it is. We beat it to death here weekly, so let's give it a break today. We all, here at STB at least, know what's going down around the globe. We're all pretty clued in and got the 411 on the coming disaster.

Quick note on Easter -

Hard to not address the subject of sin today. With the apparent rise of satan and his influence of greed and corruption flowing through global governments and financial markets, maybe now more than ever this Easter season needs to be emphasized. Today is Maundy Thursday - the day of the last supper.

I'm gonna pull one part of the Easter story that I feel is most applicable to today - the story of Peter and his denial of the Lord in the most critical time. John 13:38: Then Jesus answered, “Will you really lay down your life for me? Very truly I tell you, before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times!"

Denial seems to be a reoccurring theme here at STB. We often discuss how denial is disgustingly rampant in every corner of our society. As I wrote back in my first post of 2012, God is dead. We've left Him and His ways, and our focus is strictly earthen now with little regard for our intended purpose. It's almost like being Christian gets in the way of our earthly pursuits. It's become a hindrance, because only through greed, bribery and corruption can we attain what we desire. 

We all seem to want to do what we will and then use the get out of hell free card that Jesus gave us at the last minute. We're all taking serious advantage of and abusing this great gift. Peter's denial was a great lesson to us all that apparently we refuse to learn. Heck, we don't even have to suffer what Peter suffered, we just have to live by a few simple rules they set for us to follow, and we can't even do that. 

We're lost, plain and simple. We need to find our way back to God as a nation and as individuals. We better do this in a hurry or our Muslim leader and all the sinners in DC that control this nation are going to destroy this country, the global leader of Christianity. 

Sadly, as I've said before, either the end is coming or we're about to be cast out into the desert to wander for 40 years just like the Jews to pay for our sins. We're about to be cleansed one way of another, so I suggest you all get right with God. Instead of denial, let's make an effort to accept. Accept our mission to do His will and live in His way. You will be doing the world a great favor. 

Funny, I talk about prepping a lot for economic collapse, social unrest and all that, maybe I should not forget to tell you to prep for an even more important event. Happy Easter.

On to the lie - 

Minis 4hr - 1866 may be the number if this 1853 level fails as resistance. All this is happening right above the critical 1844 support resistance line (beige).

Minis 30m - The last time at 1866 at the intersection of pink and blue I correctly screamed reversal. The markets remain in a very dangerous spot. All this has been so far is a retracement. Sure near term resistance (yellow) busted and backtested yesterday, they took back critical 1844 s/r and we do live and function in a completely rigged market, but if the tide has turned then this is another spot where another real reversal is possible. Just keep your heads up.I prefer Monday over today for any real downside potential.Let me add that the STB red diagonal of death is clearly in the picture just below.

Minis 5m - Closer look at price reaction at upper blue channel resistance.

More to come below.

Have a great holiday weekend.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Morning Charts 04/15/14 SPX /es

The "Shocking" Buying Spree Of America's Mysterious Third Largest Treasury Holder Ramps HigherI believe this is possibly going to be directly related to the long called STB external or exogenous "event" that will end it all. 

"In summary: someone, unclear who, operating through Belgium and most likely the Euroclear service (possible but unconfirmed), has added a record $141 billion in Treasurys since December, or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper, bringing the host's total to an unprecedented $341 billion!"

We covered this post briefly in the comments this week when it hit, but it needs to be examined further. Well to the extent that conspiracy theory needs to be established so conspiracy fact can once come true again. The gist of what I'm getting at can be very easily derived from the simple statement, "or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper". Tell me, Belgium, really? 

We discuss rigged and manipulated markets here at STB daily. We were among the first to jump on this bandwagon, embrace the new reality, and wait patiently for conspiracy theory to become a now well documented fact. We've been able to decipher QE and all its iterations, LIBOR and Gold market rigging, algos and HFT, the BLS data manipulation, the false liquidity, and then came the taper. 

Taper, how could the Fed stop funding or supporting the rigged system, give us a line of shit a mile long about a recovery and still manage to run markets to fresh new ATHs wile keeping ZIRP intact? Honestly, does 'how' even matter anymore. We know the CTRL P function key got stuck in the on position about 5 years ago. 

Maybe 'why' is a better question? Well, that's simple to answer as well. They die, their system collapses. There is a reason I have had that specific Andrew Jackson quote at the top of the blog since the beginning, 

"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country." 

and liberties we are losing at an extremely rapid pace as the current administration takes the Patriot Act and rapes the Constitution to further enslave us to support their system. 

Debt - Loss of Liberty - Enslavement

Its all about their control, their greed, their lust for power, global domination, they can't lose. Well, if they stop printing they lose the dollar and it all goes POOF! 

Back to Belgium and the mystery treasury purchases. I've explained the death of the global Ponzi system. They bought our treasuries and we bought everyone else stuff. Over and over this occurred till they stopped buying our treasuries. Then we did not have money to buy stuff. So we had to print to survive. 

Who on earth has this sort of cash and why Belgium? Why was it not hidden better? Who's buying? We will get the answers one day and when we do it will be the end. When we discover the mystery behind the third largest holder of UST and what a farce it is - it all ends. 

On to the lie - 

So they ramped it to close at 1844 and upper yellow channel resistance, and then overnight drifted up thru this resistance point to open up a whole new world of opportunity. wow, what a bunch of crap. Just remember, they can't let the market have a meaningful correction. They took it as deep as they could with this last move south, right to the edge, and have now pulled it back from the edge of the abyss one more time.

Minis 60m - 1853 to 1856 is all they got left stopping them from much higher. They are still awfully close to the danger zone. They are far from out of the woods. Sure, they took back 1844, but I'm not so sure that's not much more than a symbolical move rather than meaningful one. Team manipulation is losing control. 

Everyone is nervous. Remain patient and let the play come to you. Don't force anything here. Remember, nothing 'has to happen'. 

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Morning Charts 04/15/14 SPX /es

It's that day again. Serve your master debt serf.

On to the lie -

Minis 4hr - Ready for this?
  • Note all of this is happening in and around the red rising wedge of death that began with the lows of November 2012 that is overthrowing long term market resistance (thick blue) off the 2009 lows.
  • All of the below is inside a potential rising yellow wedge that started back in February.
  1. Price cracked red rising wedge of death support back in February after the green rising wedge overthrow and failure. Off of this low ......
  2. Recovered to form a pink rising wedge that overthrew red wedge resistance. 
  3. Pink wedge broke down and evolved into a pink rising channel. 
  4. Inside pink rising channel became a blue falling channel.
  5. Overthrew blue falling channel holding pink support (STB consolidation call) to red and yellow resistance 
  6. Then complete failure taking out blue, pink, stopping at 1844, backtesting the blue/pink STB super incredible short point I called, then fell to take out 1844, red, LT blue and formed the current falling yellow channel
  7.  and finally stopped at blue falling channel support forming a new lower diagonal for the larger rising yellow wedge just above red dashed red line of certain death. 
There you have it - a complete technical rundown.

Minis 60m - Closer look at the current yellow falling wedge and price interaction with red and blue in the critical 1828 to 1833 area I've been discussing for a few days.

Minis 5m - Even closer. I'm watching 1828 to 1833 very closely. There are two diagonals, two channel 50% diagonals and 1833 s/r - This is a major road block. 39, 44 and falling yellow chan resistance will be next if they get thru here. Below - anything sub 1793 and we'll be having flash crash discussions.

SPX Daily - It is what it is. Some things point to a possible near term bottom but no positive divergences. Very very dangerous spot with price hanging under that LT blue support. Very dangerous.

More to come below.

Don't forget to be a good American and support the winning team by paying your taxes. 

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, April 14, 2014

Morning Charts 04/14/14 SPX /es

A some point soon I'm gonna have to start going full bore fear post/rant and not take my foot off the peddle. Let's say I'm gonna have to revert to the STB of old. What got me (and most of us) here, what the people love and want moar of, it will be coming back with a vengeance soon.

Reversion to the mean, it happens. It is a natural occurrence. Just like what the markets are destined to do. I, like the market, became complacent. It was painfully obvious where we were headed five years ago when I started writing the blog. It became painfully boring to write about where we were headed. About the only original calls I have left to come home are my "event" call, multiple market closures after the next crash, the massive global default call and the deflation before hyperinflation call. I'll have to look, but I think I can claim a 4 handle dollar technical call as well.

After the original blog banter and rants we hit the 'follow the Fed' stage for well over 500 consecutive blog posts. That got a bit sickening, so thank goodness it's finally time for a change and to start screaming real warnings from the mountain top again. Say it with me STB old timers - Guns, ammo, food, water filter, gold, silver and get out of the dollar.

This little piss ant nothing blog that will never receive any recognition (except from ZH, WB, Mish and KD who have me on their bog rolls - thank you very much - and you of course) has been on the ultimate right side of the trade all along. The get the frick out of everything, it's all gonna burn to the ground, do the math, ultimate destruction and complete disaster call, as hard as it was to believe it is going to come home.

In the mean time I've also had a pretty sporty track record at calling this rigged POS market. Warning about the '10 and '11 tops months in advance and calling them within a day. Nailing the bottoms to boot and then not having called a top since. From my 'unprecedented manipulation' back in August of '12 we've ridden this fraud all the way to here. It's time, but not right now, just not quite yet, close, extremely close, like (pick your favorite color) hair close to the next top.

After this you better be ready. When the Fed loses control or its own member banks, when the government and the Fed stop coordinating and start fighting, when the sheeple riot after their wealth destruction is realized (or confiscation occurs), you better be ready. We are gonna riot. They are gonna shut down the internet, water and power, and then all control will be lost. Much more on all of this to come.

I believe we'll come out of it just fine as long as the Americans, the patriots, can win. It's the entitled libtards that are our main problem. We'll get into this later - just start prepping if you have not - and remember, as always - pay cash for everything (especially gold) you can. These purchases can not be tracked.

On to the lie -

Top - that's a big word. Like a major friggin word that carries connotations and ramifications I'm not sure many of us are ready to contend. Like real fucking deal market and societal collapse would be a couple of issues that would accompany such an event. Of course the government and the Fed know this, so they can't let the market crash (or even correct). So far the run at 1900 failed twice and lower lows have been set as we enter earnings season.

STB quarterly earnings rant - elevator version - lower estimate before earnings, beat by a penny, miss revenues, guide lower to lower next hurdle, stocks go up. Over and over and over again it happens this way. QE raises all tides no matter how many holes are in the ship they all seem to stay afloat just fine. Well, those hole ridden hulls are about to collapse when reality finally wins over fantasy, and my friend, boats without bottoms - they don't float anymore.

Technically we're in a nasty, nasty, nasty spot. Politically, socially and financially both here and abroad were in a nasty spot. I'm not quite sure how I'm holding my tongue here on a top call. It has to be my fear of the Fed and 100% market manipulation. I obviously believe that markets are going to crash, but having seen what we've all seen, I have to digest this a bit more before I make a call.

Minis 30m - I give all sorts of details on where we are and could be headed weekly. Today is not the day for a summary, sorry. Bottom line is price broke the STB red diagonal of death Friday, and it got back under LT blue market resistance. This opened Pandora's box to much much lower targets. The STB red diagonal of death has stopped every fall on this run since the lows in '12. Everyone is holding their breath here.

I warned hard about the potential epic reversal point Thursday starting Wednesday. Then blue falling channel support got nailed Friday. The keys today - Resistance area up to 1833 and support from 1795 to 1791. This is the real deal. This is the shit. Watch 91 like a hawk cause sell stops should be under that. Above 1830 and the buying may start again. More on all of this below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Friday, April 11, 2014

Open Weekend Post 04/12-13/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it. 

Markets in a very, very peculiar spot with the world apparently ready to fade the trade.

I'll be updating charts this weekend.

Enjoy the Masters. There is nothing better than the back 9 Sunday. Best golf ever.

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 04/11/14 SPX /es

Thanks to computer issues this AM, the post I wanted to deliver this morning will have to wait. Sorry. 

Let's just say if you can't feel the end is near you got issues. 

On to the lie -  

Yesterday I said, "A triple whammy of resistance in an overbought worthless POS market in the middle near the end of the rising wedge that spells nothing but doom when it fails. This is an exceptional point for a reversal off a failed retracement. This is exactly the type of point I hope to nail to call the top. This is the type of entry point where the money is made. "

The results were pretty good, and that was after discussing that resistance point at length in the commentary Wednesday. You have to read the comment section. There the community does an awesome job of discussing what's going on, and I give much more specific detail. TA works, and I still think TA will get it right in the end - which is near. 

Weekly SPX - Just see the yellow boxes. That should be all the time that is left.

Monthly SPX - See yellow boxes.

I'll get into the minis below. We had a slight disaster last night. I told you to be patient and wait to consider getting long today (it you were) and let EU and Asia and the dust settle.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Morning Charts 04/10/14 SPX /es Youth, Voting and Chance

Well we've been discussing the modern American - the ignorant, the unwilling, the ostrich, the self-absorbed, the deniers ...... the sheeple - here for years at STB. Unrelenting, we've lambasted and discussed their slumber. We've hammered their extreme complacency. We've exposed their being raped (sans KY) and loving it, but what's happened recently is a bit of a surprise. We've been fortunate to have seen some sort of transformation in the sheeple over the past year or so.

The Stunning Metamorphosis Of An "Obama Girl" has inspired me this morning. The metamorphosis of youth, a truly special moment. So young and impressionable. It's very gratifying to see a youngster (yours or another) have a moment of awakening. Lord knows these moments are few and far between with kids these day, so let's take the small victories and run with them shall we? 

Carey in the  video woke up to the fact that she'd basically been date raped (my words there) by Obummer back in 2008. She figured out that she'd been bold faced lied to by the man (term used very loosely - jury still out on that) that would lead America out of the worst recession in decades. 

Yes, the youth - the ones that have been saddled with a trillion dollars of student debt, that will not have jobs or an economy to graduate into to pay for their student loans and will not be able to qualify to buy a home because of said student debt and have had their futures mortgaged so we all can live the high life today - are finally waking up.

These are the same students and young Americans that are supposed to be the backbone of the Obamacare system (now the ACA since he is trying desperately to remove his name from the greatest fuck up in political history). These kids have been saddled with the greatest financial burden any generation has ever seen and they've been left an economy that is in shambles and they are supposed to pay for this shit as well? That's right Carey, fuck that! I hear ya sister.

I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a reverend ski instructor in Crested Butte back in 1998 about my questions or reservations about having children one day. Yes, I've been a bear/realist that long. Well, I obviously had two the readers of STB well know. Kids are awesome. They rock, but the world they are inheriting does not. 

Middle school is great. Just this week LS1 (13 yrs) had a report due on what he'd learned about voting, its importance and what problems remain with it today. What evolved from this paper was an eye opening family discussion where we tried to answer the question from what he'd been taught in the textbook but could not apply this to reality. What my 13 year old learned was that even though you vote the electoral college in many states makes the ultimate decision. He learned about vast voter fraud. He learned about voter ID laws. He learned about campaign finance/fraud and how who has the biggest coffers wins. He learned that even though someone may win the popular vote they may not win the election. He learned a lot of shit I wish I knew going into the polls fort he first time.

I seriously think the teacher was looking for discrimination still existing since Jim Crow laws and all that (which does exist to a degree, but I quickly dispelled noting they buss people in from Timbuktu to vote at multiple precincts), but that's not what she got. We were not about to let our impressionable youngster be bamboozled into the lesser, easy, never ending discrimination debate. Since we now have a black president can we end this please? We wanted him in the here and now. We pulled back the veil and let him have it. He's learned that he better get his butt to the polls and pay attention to who and what he's voting for.

The youth are waking up. This is good, cause if they don't we're all really screwed. They better figure this out and fast. They better vote correctly (if that's even possible, cause more than often the choice is just the lesser of two evils). Hmmm, I wonder if Carey has heard of a man named Ron Paul and his revolution. I bet she (and many others) are seriously regretting not voting for him about now. 

On to the lie - 

Minis 4hr - Pretty simple, sitting smack dab in the middle of my red rising wedge of death. Backtesting the busted pink channel support at upper blue channel resistance at 1866 support/resistance. A triple whammy of resistance in an overbought worthless POS market in the middle near the end of the rising wedge that spells nothing but doom when it fails. This is an exceptional point for a reversal off a failed retracement. This is exactly the type of point I hope to nail to call the top. This is the type of entry point where the money is made. 

All that said, you are dealing with a rigged POS market that no longer follows any rules but the ones they set daily. These once technical milestone points now get obliterated by the PPT, HFT and any other method they have at their disposal. One day (think STB "event") we'll have our moment in the sun (and the extreme days of darkness will soon follow), but till then follow the Fed.  Remember, check your brains at the door each morning. You will not need them. They will only get in your way during the day.

More to come below. 

Masters begins today! What a glorious time and place. 

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Morning Charts 04/09/14 Hank Aaron SPX /es

As a child growing up in the ATL I was fortunate to have a national sports hero in my hometown. I can tell many Aaron stories having met him numerous times, enough to where he knew my name. I was 10 when he hit 715, at home, preparing to go to bed and catching the game on the TV in my parents room. I was the only one in the house that saw it live. It wasn't a second later that everyone in the house knew what had happened cause of my excitement. This is a moment of my life that I will always remember, and will more than likely be one of those final moments that passes in front of my eyes as I cross to the other side.

Innocence, what a time, the mid to late 70's. I bring this up to note the erosion of baseball can be directly contrasted to the erosion of the our markets (and country) over the past 40 years. I hate baseball now. Can't stand it and may catch a game 7 of a playoff series only cause I'm pretty much a sports nut. I lost my love of the sport when they had the strike. As a young man I did not get how a bunch of guys making millions playing baseball of all sports could have the gall. (I'm not going to get into the whole debate about ownership and all that.)

Now we have a new steroid based age of baseball where the new home run kings were all dosing, or should we say, cheating. The lack of regulation and the power of the players union controlled how the game was policed, or should I say not policed.

Contrasting to the markets today, unregulated, Central Bank driven; the players have taken over the game. The honesty and morals of what was the holy grail of capitalism has eroded to a corrupt, manipulated era of where cheating is the only way to play the game now. In a way baseball needed the steroid driven long ball era to save the sport from the NHL's fate of obscurity. Today the markets must have the QE era to save everything they've falsified over the past decade or more.

Baseball is now regulating the sport, they've eradicated cheating and it is still alive and actually making a comeback. Hmmm, novel idea, but what if they decided to regulate the markets? Nah, not possible.

On to the lie -

The waiting game. Waiting on the inevitable end to come. Tinkering under 1900 and above critical support, it appears that the volatile consolidation from 1833 to 1900 that we've experienced over the past few weeks may be what we need to get used to.

Minis 4hr - Potential formations exist, but after a great fall the markets need to find their form and settle in. Right now price is in old pattern parameters, but has not yet carved out a new formation. You can see the upper and lower resistance of STB's long term rising red wede of death are controlling the highs and lows. 1844 (beige) and 1833 are a key areas. The thick blue rising diagonal is LT resistance off the 2009 lows. IF that blue support and the red rising wedge fail, it could (and should, be game over. That's how close we are to technical death here.

Minis 15m - A closer look.

SPX 60m - The tops are all very telling, not as much so for the "impulsive" bottoms. that speaks volumes to me. At least this possible bottom, like the last, has some sort of semi-technical merit.

Minis 1853 is next resistance.

Masters starts tomorrow!

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!