Friday, October 24, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/25-26/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will as well. 

Curious spot technically for a close (after what 'd call a curious day Friday). 

I'll update some charts to try and discover any non QE nuggets that may move the markets. 

Have a good weekend. 

Say HBD Shanky (Saturday)!

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/24/2014 SPX /es

Ebola fears abound and the market does not like it.  

AMZN ouch

Continuing yesterday's fallout - Democraps scrambling like rats on a sinking ship with nowhere to go

On to the lie - 

No POMO and this chart and AMZN and Ebola = Sionara

SPX 15m - Wow what a long setup with the break and backtest of upper falling megaphone resistance and the thrashing and remanufacture of the red rising wedge for a third time all on top of that inverse head and shoulders targeting near 1980 while squeezing the shorts to death again and working in two overthrows and three gaps up. They even managed to take out the 61% retracement - which virtually guarantees a new ATH to come. BUT then went pomo and came all the news above. Friday has potential to be disasterous, and it that's the case it could start a new wave of selling that will scare the pants off most. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Morning Charts 10/23/2014 SPX /es

O's abandonment is in full swing now. After STB discussing the coming of this months ago and the dangers of the lamest lone duck ever, the libtards and democraps are now basically abandoning the administration's ship. Can you blame them? 

After noting recently that even Obozo's flagship station MSNBC is starting to daringly speak in a negative tone about his highness, today the leading MSNBC libtard mouthpiece says, "It's like Obama has Ebola." Let's put it this way, 

"The ineptitude of the White House political operation has sunk from annoying to embarrassing,"

Good thing there wont't be any voting irregularities this time - wait - there was a problem in Illinois (noooo way) where the GOP votes in early voting were transformed into votes for democrats. Don't worry, it was just a calibration error. In Illinois, that's the last place one would think such a thing would happen. Ya think they showed their hand a bit early? 

It's a good thing there are no worries of voter fraud this early in the election cycle in CO, NC or NYC. It's still early, things will heat up soon one would suspect. I'm so relieved that race or immigrant voters will not be an issue. 

I mean who would not want to vote for all of Obozo's policies that are on the ballot? He said they are there. He's proud of them and not backing down from this point. We're either bout to find out just how stupid and ignorant voters are in America or just how rigged the system is. Either way, we'll be left with the lamest duck potus and his pen. That's a horrifying thought. 

Want to read some of the most wasteful things your government spends money on? Check this out - Senator Tom Coburn's Wastebook. 74 pages of inglorious expenditures. Just read the table of contents - you may not want to read any further. 

As you well know, things are really screwed up in DC, and no matter the end results of the coming election - they will only get worse. That's virtually guaranteed. 

You should look at this - 10 Things About The U.S. News Media That They Do Not Want You To Know

On to the lie - 

SPX 5m - Hmmm, was yesterday what we can expect from future non pomo days? Good luck for bully as today is a pomo day. I'm not sure how that's going to work with the HnS that formed yesterday at the top (targeting 1910). This HnS target works well with the backtest scenario of the larger IHnS neckline breakout as well as the original overthrow point backtest (which it has done regularly). 

Pomo today does work for the underthrow that happened late in the selloff yesterday. Pomo and pos divs after an underthrow? That should work for bully, if not and things continue to fall, then that adds to the strength of the rebound to come (just as the excessive overthrow added to the fall). 

One thing that did work (after the fact) was the overthrow Tuesday and all the neg divs I kept prompting about. The fall late yesterday was a factor of the abuse of the upper falling megaphone resistance and the end of the rising red wedge - they really got carried away yesterday morning and paid the price late. 

So, again, we're left overnight at another technical fork in the road. Not as blatant as yesterday, but still there. The main difference between the two days - pomo and no pomo. So, what do you think will happen? 

Good news update - Bently the Cavalier tests negative for ebola! Yay!

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Morning Charts 10/22/2014 SPX /es

Not sure, maybe for 5 (five) years I've been saying this - VIX=Busted. Nothing is real. 

If it costs the Fed $200 billion per quarter to avoid a market crash, then it's probably not that long till that number works to its way to $200 billion a day the rate we're headed (and that will be deemed affordable and good for everyone). 

No, it is not about the military industrial complex, and if you say it is you will be called a conspiracy nut. 

Well, if you have a 33% chance of being on file with the FBI, then imagine the improvement of those odds if you're here reading this now!

As some have noted explicitly in the comments section - Green cards will be free and abundant after the election. Oh Joy! There are plenty of jobs, insurance and entitlements for all. 34 MILLION new immigrant ID's ordered! Now I see where the manufacturing boom he's spoken of is coming from (assuming the ID's are even made in America. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - I think this chart has everything you need. Price has moved from the underthrow of megaphone support to the upper megaphone resistance (rapidly on rumors of potential additional global QE from anywhere). Price had an overthrow of all the negative divergences yesterday to get to this point while overthrowing the red rising wedge that got price to this point. Oh, price climbed right through the 38% retracement and is currently at the 61% retracement as well. Note - every trip above the 61% retracement has led to fresh new ATHs. While price is at this sensational near term reversal spot, there is one slight problem - that inverse head and shoulder pattern below the black horizontal neckline - that lone pink vertical line is the target measurement - this takes price to the 1970 area and well above the 61% retracement. Want more? That 1977 area would be a great spot for another neckline and right shoulder to form making an even larger IHnS. For the bears - a reversal here could kick off a brutal - like really brutal fall. This is a point where the charts could predict an event of sorts that turns price on a dime. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Morning Charts 10/21/2014 SPX /es

Like I have said for literally years now, follow the Fed. That may be easier said now than done at this immediate time with the Fed heading into the blackout period, and the news they've doled out over the past couple of weeks has been worse than a local weather forecast. Hot, cold, rain, sun, windy, calm - who can tell right? 

There should always be questions regarding the Fed;s actions and intentions, Right now my question is does confusion reign, or is the mix of Fed speak intentional? (or does it just follow the prevailing wind?) The Fed has become quite adept at just in time announcements, whether the need be hot or cold (and they can even be opposite in the same day).

This chart from zero hedge sums up the past week or so of Fed speak action. I called for the dove speak a day ahead of Williams first utterance on the 14th. Then they played whatever cards they wanted when as usual. 

Right now I'm in a holding pattern waiting their mandate. POMO is still flowing with Thursday the only day this week without additional market assistance. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 10m - The cross above 1898 negated a few technical items and opened the door for moar upside. There is still a battle waging though. The red rising wedge support cracked and negative short term divergences are weighing after this pop off the bottom tot eh 38% retracement. On the other hand there could be a rather large inverse head and shoulders pattern with price moving through the 1898 neckline that targets as high as the resistance area around 1978. 

Resistance areas are 12-15, around 30, and then upper black resistance near 45. If the 61% retracement goes the odds are really good that they will push price right back up to a new ATH. The election/Xmas ramp thought process must be headed. The market remains their main grand illusion generator. I don't think they are ready to let things go quite yet. Remain patient. You may have to wait till next week for clarity from the Fed on QE direction. I don't think we're out of the confusion stage quite yet. We may not be out of the dip stage quite yet either. For those into the EWT thing, I have a feeling the counters are gonna get burned one last time. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Morning Charts 10/20/2014 SPX /es

The cry for MOAR - STB's biggest fear for how long now? I'm actually surprised they were able to let the SPX drift 10% and stop it. I guess when things are this overvalued and this out of whack, what's 10% among friends? When the fall started to pick up some steam and they lost a bit of control, they bring out the big guns. 

I've remained quite calm during this spill, wondering if or when they'd start crying for moar. I was a day early on predicting the call last week. I'm not about to give you a primer on the subject. I've been harping on it for years. I'll let this ZH post summarize things. 

"And we better get moar... because the gap between perception and reality is huge..."

I'll put it as simply as I can, no QE and everything goes POOF! No matter the long term consequences. No matter the inevitable result of endless printing. Like a junkie, moar is better. Waking up from the hopium induced high will only expose the horrific surroundings we're living in. The US is now the equivalent of a rat/bug infested, trash filled, should be condemned crack house. Best to just stay as fucked up as possible for as long as we can and not sober up. 

Two words - election and Christmas (not to mention the distraction they want the market to be from all the Orwellian issues dominating the globe right now), must be considered. 

On to the lie - 

The setup allows for a move either way right here. If south the move has a chance to be even more impulsive than last week. If north, they've hit the breaks and a larger retracement should be in order. The move north depends on how much hopium they decide to inject (rumor, promise or real). 

SPX Daily - Oversold, only one positive divergence andthe MACD histogram turned Friday. Bottom line is (see past lows on the chart), they don't need any sort of technical signal to make a bottom. They can just declare one whenever they want. 

SPX 15m - Friday I noted if they kept a lower high things had potential to get hairy. Either red wedge (bear flag) scenario is not great. There is a chance of an IHnS here with a neckline at 1898. That would yield about a 1980 target. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, October 17, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/18-19/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. 

I'll update charts and post anything I find. 

I'll be an FSU fan Saturday night. I hate the Notre Dreamers. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/17/2014 SPX /es

So much to talk about, and I'm not feeling it, so ...

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - This chart kind of puts my brain in perspective. What was once an elaborate and elegant top setup has become a jumbled mess. Rising wedge, backtests, overthrows, divergences, classic breakdowns have all given way to ... a tumble that is still trying to identify itself. Was/Is the breakdown a channel, a wedge, a megaphone, a channel again or none of the above? Technical underthrows are now commonplace where for the past five years they were virtually outlawed. Oversold is now a term that I will even entertain using (lightly or temporarily). As I said yesterday, I guess when a lie comes unwound (temporarily or permanently - not sure of the case here yet) things can get a bit ugly. 

SPX 15m - Again, this is STB's brain on crack. What was once clean and neat, just the way I like it - mostly predictable following some predictable or forseable order - the bottom just keeps falling out. What's worse? Dare I say that my counting (don't do it - just don't) has worked better than anything I've been able to throw at it. Scary - if I'm counting this right - and some other count's I've looked at confirm - we're just getting started. Now let me say this, I've always, always out-called and out-timed the counters, and I will not be beat. 

Chaos - that's what breakdowns are all about. This market is like some freak transgender looking for an identity right now. It's difficult when your boyfriend/sugar daddy has sent you out into the cold having lied and misled you about reality for the past 5 years. To make things worse, he teases you about how he may actually start funding your hopium habit again. What a mess. 

I actually believe I call a falling market better than a booming one. This will be my third shot at a major breakdown - I guess it takes a bit of time getting your bearings when the poles flip. That is, if it has flipped. Let me add that I still don't think the STB "event" has happened unless Ebola is it. Another issue this time is that we've never dealt with a truly, unprecedentedly manipulated falling market before. This may be the first rodeo of such for all of us. One thing is certain - the stakes have never been higher. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GE!