Thursday, January 29, 2015

Morning Charts

No post this morning. I have a school meeting for the ls's I must attend. I will get to charts and such below when I get into the office. Yesterday I got it right when I thought red-er. I still think down is the play with the cb's basically having played their hand for this round.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Morning Charts 01/28/2015 SPX /es

FOMC day - not gonna waste my breath on a post. Why, when it's all a crap shoot relying on specific word bank weightings of excitable adjectives? To ease or not to ease? To raise rates or not? Grandma could make it really easy on all of us and simply say, no easing and no rate raise. Done, there you have it, see you next month. 


On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - The bull case - ECB QE #fail, the FOMC better come to bat today, and the AAPL beat lift failed (SPX futures fell 15 points from highs last night). The bear case - price broke LT support (black - the STB diagonal of death) that's been a spring board for price since December of 2012 for the fourth time in the last four months. The backtest of this busted support is cause for concern for bully. The red rising wedge that STB said would form back in October has a completed A-E formation, and with the LT black diagonal's interaction with price in the bottom of this wedge price is getting a double dose of downward pressure. Bottom line is price is apparently (at this moment) reacting more to technical pressures than to inflationary fiat measures. This is a huge change and must be noted. 



More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Morning Charts 01/27/2015 SPX /es

Well, yesterday I said I still give the bears a fighting chance. Apparently with the failure of this round of levitation medication the patient may be taking a turn for the worst. Like with standard meds, sometimes they lose their mojo. The disease morphs and becomes immune to what we want to treat it with. While this situation is usually a dream (and sometimes scripted) for big pharma, in this case it's not the desired result (which can be debated). 

Either way, their most recent round of levitation medication failed. Continuing the big pharma analogy, for better or worse, meds tend to become moar expensive over time, sometimes to a point where they can no longer be afforded by the patient or a supporting government (or bank(s in this case). 

But this is Merica (or at least Merica's doing), we don't fail, we just go larger - isn't that the answer for everything? So, I'd expect a last round of treatment that's so large it will either cure (impossible) or kill, via overdose (highly probable), the patient. The Fed's gonna be forced to throw every form of treatment possible in a last gasp effort to save the patient. Un-taper, go NIRP, anything you can imagine in their power and not will be thrown at the proverbial wall. 

What happens when the patient dies? Well, I've told you for years how to prepare for that. I hope you have been listening. 

Interesting - worth repeating


"And it is very interesting to note that there will also be a solar eclipse on September 13th, 2015.  Over the past century, there have only been two other times when a solar eclipse has corresponded with the end of a Shemitah year.  Those two times were in 1931 and 1987, and as Jonathan Cahn has told WND, those solar eclipses foreshadowed major financial disasters…"


On what STB is not, and why we're financial outcasts - Truth sucks. It takes a huge set of balls to address and deal with reality. We will all be better off in the long run for the path we chose to take. 


"Anyone with half a brain willing to say “Well hold on…” is immediately scorned, shrugged off, and quite possibly branded and slated to appear before the inquisitor committee of the Central Banking church of Keynes."


On to the lie - 


SPX 30m - She turned without a negative divergence. Can't remember the last time this happened. Very large range around that LT resistance diagonal that price does not like to stay above. 


SPX 5m - NT support will be trounced this morning. First black support was busted, and now blue support will go. This is not a good trend especially when there are no neg divs following QE. 




More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, January 26, 2015

Morning Charts 01/26/2015 SPX /es

Greece, QE questions, Oil (and new Saudi king), Gold, Bonds, boots on the ground in Ukraine (noooo way), more than questionable leadership and a plethora of other major issues all on top of global meltdown and instability - ever get the feeling that even those running the show know it's all about to come to an inevitable end? 


On to the lie - 

I still give the bears a fighting chance. Prolly even more now given the muted reaction to the ECB QE. The markets want MOAR! If anything they have bought a little time to decipher where and how this will come, but you can bet ur sweet backside it will. 

SPX Daily - There are two hot spots on this chart saying that this corrective may not be what they want you to believe. The two negative divergences are in BP and A50. These say something bout the weakness of this solely QE inspired recovery, but not enough for me to go full bore beartard. The backtest of the black STB diagonal of death and the old red wedge support in process now around 1261 is a big deal and a potential point for the bears to say they have finally had enough. More than likely that red wedge support needs to be lowered where it will act as a D point of an A-E run, thus allowing this last round of QE to have its glory run. 



SPX 60m - Prolly my fav chart now. Here you see the three red wedge support diagonals. More importantly you see the old blue rising wedge support and resistance. I mentioned this last week. Price is now at old resistance again. As you can see price does not like to stay above this diagonal very long. You can also see where the old support has become upper market resistance, so if they do get carried away (which I doubt, but you can't rule that out) you have a good idea of where their max point will be. 



More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, January 23, 2015

Open Weekend Post 01/24-25/2015

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it share it. I will as well. I was gonna post Gray State here for all to watch but it has already been taken down - SURPRISE!

I'll look at the chartbook. The 60m resistance I showed Friday worked well. QE ain't what it used to be I guess. Not sure. Maybe they know something we don't, so they are not following. 

Enjoy the weekend. 

GL and GB!


Morning Charts 01/23/2015 SPX /es

Not sure where to start today, so I'm just gonna let you insert your ideas here ____________ and be done with the post. So much is going down. The issues don't ever truly go away, nothing gets resolved, new issues continue to pile up in the global logjam of conspiracy fact. Adding moar money at this point is like adding litter to the cat box and not ever cleaning it out. 

Let's just leave the post at that this morning, it's Friday, why spoil the day so early. 



On to the lie- 

Nothing is in sync. Stock market prices are so disconnected from reality it's truly unbelievable. Commods, bonds, stocks - you make sense of it all - impossible. No correlations exist. Historical hedges are gone. I think while they had us worried about earth's poles shifting they switched the markets instead (so now you know why your market compasses don't work anymore - where is true North?)

Index Comparison Monthly - Only Cramer could screw up investing in this market. 


SPX 60m - Well, I started discussing back in November if not before that a wedge would form. The drop and pop to Xmas was in the setup. That after Xmas January would be interesting. Their savior would come in the form of moar as it always does but would they be able to maintain. Now we find out if the ECB's actions were enough. Can they turn price and ramp it again? 

This time it appears they are running into a few technical difficulties, and getting the crowd to react and fall in line is not as easy as it once was. They are still in total control, but the cost for them to manipulate just went up. How long can they afford to print trillions in fiat, maintain the lie and disregard the other markets (and reality) is the only question left?

Pushing price back through that old blue resistance line around 2060 is a big deal and automatically puts price back into an overbought situation. Notice that resistance line and how price may go over it, it does not stay there long. 



More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Morning Charts 01/22/2015 SPX /es

Not much to say other than we've been discussing this day for weeks now. Will it be enough? If so, new ATH's should be in your future. If not, a sell off and sooner than later mass of Fed speak to calm and lift will come. Pretty simple if you've been paying attention over the years. Predictable? LOL, like clockwork. Just remember, it is their game and to try, or even contemplate, to outguess them is impossible. Just sit back and follow their lead. As I've said for years, check your brain at the door every morning and follow the Fed. 


On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - Bear case - busted wedge support and backtest of that busted support - they are obviously allergic to that 200dma, but if the ECB does not please I suspect price may visit at least that point near 1967. This would satisfy my desire for price on this fall to drift to the low 70's before recovering. Now remember price floats above a supportless void, so if say the 1950 area goes another 18 handle could easily be in the picture. 



SPX 5m - everything formation wise here says more down than up to me. Overthrowing either rising wedge scenario. I've been all over the 25 area as a hot spot since the last top, and it's not disappointing me. Price looks to me like they have been rather cautiously front loading the ECB announcement. Funny but that's the worst case of BTFD I've seen in years. This is the market having credibility issues with those promising liquidity, not good. 



Let's see what they do. then we'll go from there. 



More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Morning Charts 01/21/2015 SPX /es

Well, another year begins with another SOTU STFU moment. I highly encourage you to go to yesterdays post and take the time to read RC's blow by blow commentary. Enlightening and chocked full of moar lie busting facts. The GOP BS response pales in comparison. The MSM can't touch RC's brilliance. Truth can't be told to the masses, they would not understand. It's a shame he was not elected to congress. 

QE Eve. If they had been smart they would have had this announcement coincide with the holiday last weekend, but I'm not in government, so I think rationally. Instead it falls three weeks or more after first announced and their initial intent of a "free ride" on just the promise of QE (as we've seen with every instance in the past) has drawn no more than a #FAIL. Don't get "overexcited"

Scuse me, we waited all this time for don't get "overexcited"? Don't worry, we didn't and neither did the markets. No new ATH's this time. Are the tides finally turning on the liquidity train? Are the Keynesian prophets tapped out, or are their pockets so overflowing with all the stolen cash they can't take any more in? I think the CB's of the world know they have gone too far. The parasite has almost killed the host. 

At least the ECB QE debate ends tomorrow. Can't wait for the next announcement, which could come on the heels of this one, should come from the Fed and has potential to be either a surprise or really large if the markets react negatively to this ECB #FAIL moment. 


On to the lie - 

Failure to deliver on a QE promise that did not ramp the markets to create any cushion for such failure has potential to be devastating. If the drug dealer runs out of hopium, the addicts reaction/withdrawal is not a pretty sight.  

SPX Weekly - This one scary chart. 


SPX Monthly - This chart is scarier than the one above. 


I believe the end is near. 



More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!