Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Morning Charts 12/17/2014 SPX /es

Not much out there this morning to read check out -  

Psst: How Much Systemic Debt Is In Oil? 

The Great Generic Drug Rip-Off 

Matt Taibbi On the Passage of the Spending Bill With Wall St Giveaway By the Senate

Obama issues 'executive orders by another name'

and most importantly for market observers - 

Crude Continues Slide, Ruble Stabilizes, US Futures Rebound As Global Stocks Slump: All Eyes On Yellen

On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - Critical support, this is about as low as they let UST go in the last fall and Grandma speaks today. I wondered about this area around 1980 and would they try to hold the line here. They did well yesterday till late. It another support move is happening this morning. Fall is still similar to the last one but a bit more severe. 

And - He was so far ahead of his time - 

Lucy Van Pelt: I know how you feel about all this Christmas business, getting depressed and all that. It happens to me every year. I never get what I really want. I always get a lot of stupid toys or a bicycle or clothes or something like that.
Charlie Brown: What is it you want?
Lucy Van Pelt: Real estate.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Morning Charts 12/16/2014 SPX /es

Trouble in Russia as a result from the non-currency/oil/cyber wars that are not going on no matter who says what to the contrary is finally hitting home. The Teflon has lost its non-stick surface. Something that's been hitting the wall for well over a year now finally stuck. I think this post from ZH sums it up nicely. The US global destabilization policy is finally starting to pay dividends. 

Please note this - what I believe to be the single most important market related sentence in this post and one that really screws with the CB's, Fed and the potential Xmas ramp job that was expected. 
"It is so bad, US equity futures which had jumped earlier on hopes of more Chinese intervention following the latest disastrous Chinese PMI print"
Futures jumped on hopes of more intervention got trumped. Anyone care to tell me the last time a hope/promise/mention of easing got blasted by a real world event? There is that word again, "event". STB - "A non-market related event that will rip control from "them"". This may not be the event, but I have a feeling that it very well could be a precursor to the big one. 

And this just posted on ZH - "The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble"

One would assume the Ukraine crisis may escalate and the EU may have to start paying rubles for their gas - if it stays on. How many fronts can we fight a war on may be a good question at this time?

And on the home front - as STB's watched closely for years - no liquidity = no market Xmas party. You shut down their (always) well timed liquidity pump short squeezing announcements and throw a wrench in their engine and all of a sudden things are not so awesome are they. 

And a must read at least for a history lesson - it seems to never repeat and we never learn from it - A Lesson For Today's Currency Crises: Black Wednesday 1992 - When Intervention Failed.

And the STB Xmas moment of the day - 

George Bailey: Just a minute... just a minute. Now, hold on, Mr. Potter. You're right when you say my father was no businessman. I know that. Why he ever started this cheap, penny-ante Building and Loan, I'll never know. But neither you nor anyone else can say anything against his character, because his whole life was... why, in the 25 years since he and his brother, Uncle Billy, started this thing, he never once thought of himself. Isn't that right, Uncle Billy? He didn't save enough money to send Harry away to college, let alone me. But he did help a few people get out of your slums, Mr. Potter, and what's wrong with that? Why... here, you're all businessmen here. Doesn't it make them better citizens? Doesn't it make them better customers? You... you said... what'd you say a minute ago? They had to wait and save their money before they even ought to think of a decent home. Wait? Wait for what? Until their children grow up and leave them? Until they're so old and broken down that they... Do you know how long it takes a working man to save $5,000? Just remember this, Mr. Potter, that this rabble you're talking about... they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath? Anyway, my father didn't think so. People were human beings to him. But to you, a warped, frustrated old man, they're cattle. Well in my book, my father died a much richer man than you'll ever be! (emphasis mine)
On to the lie - 

We're printing 19 handles now. Possibly 18 handles sooner than later (in January fo shizzle IMO). They need to get a handle on things. Remember how I have warned to take profits as this "market" does not fall orderly anymore, it just vaporizes. 

SPX 30m - Eerily similar to the last big fall and so far with form that is discernible

SPX 60m - Well they closed the second open gap and nailed my third support diagonal at the 38% retracement. Now what? STB still looking for support to come and the rising wedge for Xmas ramp to form - although with much less gusto than before since their effort at liquidity manipulation (real/promised or not) failed miserably this morning. 66, 52 and 22 are all that's left for support and none of those points look all that strong. 

SPX Daily - can't say the neg divs and narrow BB's did not nail this turn - almost like old times. Sub 50 and 100 dma and the 200 is at 1946. STB diagonal of death (black) is just below and will be trounced at the open. This is NOT a support diagonal that is to be messed with. That black blue double support point (that would have been an STB point if I had not been so lazy charting this past month) may get abused this morning. If not, the PPT may make a stand right here no matter what the global conditions are. If not, Pandora's box is deep and wide open. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, December 15, 2014

Morning Charts 12/15/2014 SPX /es

Food for thought this morning - Are Your Savings Safe From Bail-Ins? The list provided in the post sounds somewhat similar to someone you've been reading daily for a few years now. 

Come on, manipulation? Russians? Really? They went there? What a bunch of conspiracy kooks. Geez, what's next? Like someone is gonna think the US is directly involved in the Ukraine crisis.

Interesting to see, a lot can happen in one-half of a second - Slow Motion of Crude Oil's 1/2 Second, 90 Cent Rally. Note - half second. Man those human trades are lightning fast. 

TRIA - the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act? Say what? The Unexpected Threat to Super Bowl XLIX Ahhh, what would we not be able to do without a massive government to control everything? 

Very interesting, since we had the Elf and know many more that do and you may know some as well - you'll never look at that little sucker the same again after reading this - Prof: ‘Elf on the Shelf’ conditions kids to accept surveillance state

And the STB Xmas moment of the day
"Welcome, Christmas, bring your cheer. Cheer to all Whos far and near. Christmas Day is in our grasp, so long as we have hands to clasp. Christmas Day will always be just as long as we have we. Welcome Christmas while we stand, heart to heart, and hand in hand." Dr. Seuss
or you may prefer - (video)
Clark: Hey! If any of you are looking for any last-minute gift ideas for me, I have one. I'd like Frank Shirley, my boss, right here tonight. I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over there on Melody Lane with all the other rich people and I want him brought right here, with a big ribbon on his head, and I want to look him straight in the eye and I want to tell him what a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit he is! Hallelujah! Holy shit! Where's the Tylenol?

On to the lie - 

Xmas ramp time? 

SPX 30m - Who knows? As I said all last week, the start to this fall is eerily similar to the one back in September. When SPX stopped at 55 just short of resistance I was thinking oh boy. Well, it is the holiday season and futures are scorching this morning. I'm sure they want to reassure you that you have nothing to worry about going into Xmas. Falling megaphone or channel or wedge - we can draw them all. I got my 25, 10 and almost 00 points. Right now I'm looking for backtest of 25 and will regroup there if necessary. 

SPX 60m - Wasn't someone a while ago looking for a fall to create a lower support diagonal for support for a larger rising wedge and ramp to Xmas? 

SPX Daily - Lower BB at 2018. 50dma at 2000. 100 is at 1987. Just keep these numbers in mind.

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, December 12, 2014

Open Weekend Post 12/13-14/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it. I'll do the same.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/12/2014 SPX /es

It took the lame duck congress less than three weeks to throw us as far under the bus as possible. It's almost like every voice that cried out in the last election was silenced last night. Let me see if I get how this works - O gets immigration, the GOP gets to protect the banks and we get nothing that we voted for - there you have it in a nutshell - "we the sheeple" lose on all accounts. You need to read this (h/t Souper) and The $1.01 trillion spending bill includes some new provisions that may come as a shock. 

I also suggest you watch The 401-k scheme below. This bill has so many asinine things in it that you will struggle to list them all. It's hard to distinguish which one ticks me off the most (immigration, pork, spying and derivatives rank high on my list), but one really stands out - Confiscation. For literally years I've been discussing and warning about this (see Afternoon Delight 03/28/12). It's simple - any sort of retirement asset will be confiscated ($18 trillion in retirement assets and $18 trillion in debt - you do the math), and this bill helps open the door for them to begin the ultimate capital control. 

"They will take our retirement accounts. They will take our 401(k)’s. They will say you have all been having such hard times earning money, so what we’re going to do is we’re going to save you. We’re going to give you government bonds… which are guaranteed… 30 year government bonds… and you will get 3% and you give us your retirement assets."

It's not about us anymore. Government no longer represents the good folks that vote them into office. As a matter of fact, why don't they just let the lobbyists pick the representatives? That would be truly more representative than the voting system we have today. I don't know if congress gets it. We're pissed off as a populace, and they will feel our wrath. We can bring it, so they better be on notice. 

Remember, the market is an illusion, nothing more than a distraction. It is the Matrix blurring reality. 

On to the lie - 

Duck and Cover? ZH went there? That's an STB oldie but goodie. Bert the Turtle and his catchy tune baby. The storm is coming. They have failed and are out of bullets - well - except the confiscation one. I can't believe after all the conspiracy fact and digesting all that we have that this coming blatant act of corruption and theft is not crystal clear to all. 

"Moreover, the central banks are now out of dry powder—– impaled on the zero-bound.That means any resort to a massive new round of money printing can not be disguised as an effort to “stimulate” the macro-economy by temporarily driving interest rates to “extraordinarily” low levels. They are already there."

SPX 30m - Watch 2025 carefully. If they hold it there (support and lower daily BB), then massive positive divergences are set at critical support. If they don't hold it there .... 2010 and then the 50cma at 00 are in line. The 38% retracement at 1982 is not out of the question either at this time. Again, sub 2025 is a dark and dangerous place. I'll mention again the similarities between this fall and the one in September are a bit freaky. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Morning Charts 12/11./2014 SPX /es

OK, so this morning I did a really strange and out of character thing, like waaaay out of character - I went to the CNBS website. Of course the computer did not like the CNBS search I tried, but I eventually found my way to the right result. I was relieved to find it was a complete waste of time.

We've had all sorts of AI doomsayers in the news recently. Hawking even went off on it recently. GOOG even says not to fear the bots. So what are we supposed to think when the market algos become seemingly self aware and take market rigging to the ultimate level? 

Something for your reading pleasure - The Economy Is Worse than During the Great Depression

STB (soon to be prophetic) "event" - call me a fear mongerer if you will, but you'll have to start lumping those that run the system in with me (or me with them) - Why Is The US Treasury Quietly Ordering "Surival Kits" For US Bankers?

I have been mentioning the budget deal. I hope y'all have been paying attention. I suggest you read Congress Just Passed Legislation Ramping Up Mass Surveillance to Super-Steroid Levels. I like the way Drudge portrayed this post - Republican Betrayal. I am truly sickened by these actions and you should be as well. 

On to the lie - 

Yesterday I mentioned two things the oppose each other. First my 2025 target got nailed and second this fall's beginnings are somewhat similar to the last one in September. So, I'm not jumping all over the move south, nor am I discounting its possibilities. I've long been on a move to 2025 and then the Xmas ramp. 

SPX 15m - OK, I actually took the time to draw a chart. Well, what? You tell me if there has been any reason to lat a trendline in the past month? Not! What do I find on the 15m chart but an underthrow of ST positive divergences. 2063 is my bull/bear line. 

SPX 30m - 2025 and an underthrow. Looking at it, form is not complete. The 3's and 5's don't work but support got nailed. As mentioned, below 2025 is a massive supportless crater. 

SPX 60m - And the fall to STB's 2025 to set the potential lower support for the potential rising wedge which to complete will require the ramp into Xmas as I've been looking for since September. So we have A, B, C, D and now up to E aall in the red wedge. Well, at least that call looks 50% absolutely brilliant at this time. I do leave room for further south from here, but if so it will be quick and should stop around 1985 if it were to fall. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Morning Charts 12/10/2014 SPX /es

You knew it was coming

 "And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"
That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

And my favorite

“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.” ― Dr. SeussHow the Grinch Stole Christmas!

Of course may more to come between now and when the fat man comes. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 5m - you can't fight this - they close it off .49. 25 down and 25 up. They take a month of overbought conditions on short term charts and have them oversold in less than two days. Granted they did give back everything they took in that month in two days (as I like to warn often). The turns, swings and volatility (or lack thereof) is simply nuts. 

SPX 60m - Yesterday I said to watch for the MA's as sign of reversal points. Computers like to have exact data points to deal with, so program to react at specific points. See below. I also (as I always do) warned of the backtest of busted support. A pretty solid lower low was set, now can the bears follow through? Another point is that I have been looking for a lower point to set a support diagonal for a rising wedge. IMO that's not low enough. We still have two weeks to Xmas. I'd prefer them to dip it down to the 2025 area before they ramp it for Santa, but that may have been it. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Morning Charts 12/09/2014 SPX /es

I suggest - Surveying The Carnage: Bullion Bounces, 30 Year Below 2014 Lows, Stocks Dump

You need to read this - it has potential (is proven) to be market related, STB "event" related and is IMO potentially their final "out" related - Why Are U.S. ‘News’-Media Ignoring Important News?
Also see this and this and this.  
"Or is the biggest news-story of our time actually that cover-up itself: the control of virtually all of our ‘news’-media by the same aristocracy — the same interconnected group of billionaires and their servants (including their ‘news’ executives)? And, if that’s the case, then how will the public even possibly come to know about the biggest news-story of our time?
After all, when it’s the case that the “U.S. House Votes 98% to Donate U.S. Weapons to Ukraine; U.S. Public Is 67% Against. Is this Democracy?” the question that’s being asked there is a very serious one, indeed."
Worth a look for consideration - Must-Know Facts about the Chokehold Killing of Eric Garner and - LeBron, Irving in 'I Can't Breathe' tees.

On to the lie - 

Well, maybe that post turkey day tumble (that was postponed from last week) that we've been anticipating for some time now is finally about to happen. Don't get too excited, it seems everyone knows this is not the big one and any dip will only be responded to with another holiday ramp (as all STB readers have come to know and love over the years). It's after Xmas that I'm focused on. 

SPX 30m - Mentioned NT support yesterday. It's gonna fail badly at the open. 1980 is the 38% retrace of the move off the October lows. This may not be a concern as they rarely let price fall to this key metric. I still like the 2025 area as a target. 

SPX 60m - A formless lump of nothing is what this run has amounted to. Back before turkey day I was looking for a fall to set a lower rising wedge support diagonal (a "D" point), and then for the run to finish in a nice and tidy rising wedge. Maybe that's what we're about to get here with some (possible) sort of pullback and then ramp into Xmas. Watch the MA's on the 30m - Daily charts for obvious support points. Note both the 30 and 60m charts will be oversold right after the open this AM but also critical NT support will be gone. A potential backtest of busted blue support should always be considered. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!