Thursday, April 24, 2014

Morning Charts 04/24/14 SPX /es

OK, lets start this morning with Gold Slammed To Fresh 10-Week Lows Below Key Technical Level, and stop and think about a few things rationally. Let's make this real simple -

1) As I've always written and conspiracy fact has proven, gold is the most manipulated commodity on the planet.

2) Use any weakness to buy physical and get out of the dollar (their system).

3) Always trade dollars (not credit) for gold. This is the best investment on the planet. First, you are trading a worthless piece of paper for real gold. Second, they can not track your purchases.

4) When and at what price did China and the world start going ape shit over gold? 2009 and in a range from $950 to $1,050 - so there is your floor.

There is really no point in going beyond either statement above in any argument. If you are trading completely worthless digital or paper gold, then this is another story. Here you are at the complete mercy of JPM and the gang of five that set the price. I'm not gonna talk about near term trades in gold. Bottom line is long term both paper and real gold will eventually explode to the upside. So just be patient and let nature take its course. After the eventual ramp of course the paper will be proven worthless and well, you know the rest of the story.

With global turmoil, Russia and China starting to aggressively move away from the dollar, our slight debt situation and a gazilllion other factors how could you not be in love with owning gold here? Well, aside from the complete manipulation issue that is. They will lose control of this one day and the house will lose its bet and have to cover. Then in instead of a flash crash there will be a flash ramp.

Let's look at some charts so technically you will understand where things are.

/YG Monthly - From the $270 low to the $1927 top price has fallen or made a normal retracement to the 38% level near $1295 and has traded there for the past year. Looking at the run up there is a base red support. Then there is the green megaphone. Inside that there was the yellow rising channel that spectacularly overthrew green resistance. When the yellow rising channel support failed and price came back under green resistance - at the backtest of both of those it was all over. (Note to STB readers - it is this exact sort of point I'm searching for in equities to finally throw in the towel.)

/YG Weekly - A closer look at the breakdown to 38% retracement. The development of the possible pink falling wedge (not so sure I like where support is drawn and that can change). You can see green and red support below

/YG Weekly -

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Morning Charts 04/23/14 SPX /es

I'm running late and there is really nothing to say that I have not beat to death already over the past five years, so let's give it a rest today. That said, I'll reiterate my "it's all too quiet right now" theme from yesterday. Don't be fooled.

On to the lie -

Minis 60m - STB point ahead? 1900 on 4/29? See top right where yellow, red, green and pink diagonals meet? This has exceptional potential to be an STB point. They took out 1866 yesterday and the STB bull/bear line has failed. There is a chance the minis backtest busted blue channel resistance or 1866 before heading higher, but right now, it looks like higher is in their plans. There is another, call it bi-polar, STB point possibility for you die hard bears out there. The intersection of STB red diagonal of death and 1844 s/r on the 29th as well.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Morning Charts 04/22/14 SPX /es

Things are awfully quiet right now. There is too much going on for it to appear so calm. Now is not a time to be complacent. Now is a time to be vigilant and awake to our surroundings. We're at a point where one single incident of any magnitude can cause everything to spiral out of control. In the Ukraine, MENA, China and many other places social unrest due to corrupt governments and horrific financial conditions is starting to really flare. The globe is nearing its boiling point, and when it does look out. The unrest will not end till the people have had their way.

On to the lie -

Since last week I've been discussing the location of price here at 1866 (/es f). This is near the 61% retracement of the fall from the 1892 top. I've been using this retracement point since the November 2012 lows to mark whether we're headed to higher highs or if the fall will continue. I refer to it as the STB Bull/Bear line. Above it and they have always managed higher highs. Below it and the bears have maintained control. The feds struggle usually making it back thru this point because there is enough bearish sentiment, there are enough out there that know this market is not real, there are enough that know this whole thing is a farce, that this point generates an emotional trigger that screams caution.

In normal (non-rigged) markets where we're facing these sort of economic and social conditions a bull retracement would end here and subsequent fall would continue south but not in this market. This is a point where the feds or PPT or whoever will either gap through or drive price through with authority crushing the remaining shorts and using the heat from their burning positions to fuel price into a new bull trap run to new highs. It's almost like everyone gives up, cries uncle, throws their hands in the air and says whatever. 

There will come a day when this 61% retracement is going to hold and reverse. That will be the best moment to short this market into the coming collapse. Right now the 60m charts, that have done the best job at predicting reversals, have some hefty negative divergences working. For this reason and the above I'm watching this point very cautiously right now.

SPX 60m - Whats also got me concerned at this point is the successful backtest and failure off the green diagonal. If the blue diagonal backtest holds and price reverses here there is a real possibility the final top is set and we're entering the final phase of the bear market.  

Minis 30m - Green rising channel at upper blue channel resistance at the 1866 s/r point now trading in the lower half of the rising green channel. If this cracks I will have no option but to point to the potential STB point near 1900 next week. On the other hand, if it holds, the STB red diagonal of death lies just below.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, April 21, 2014

Morning Charts and Earnings 04/21/14 SPX /es

Ah earnings season, that wonderful time of year so full of promise. Stories of endless growth and the riches that will accompany it run rampant, and you know what, if this quarter is a bust then next quarter, well, that one is gonna be awesome. The turnaround is just around the corner. This economy is about to explode. There is so much good shit about to happen it will make your head spin. Just look at the markets at all time highs, what could go wrong here? Absolutely nothing, so get all your money in here now and max out your margin. We're gonna get rich!

There is always an excuse if something goes wrong. Usually these are played off as temporary, explainable and avoidable in the future. Weather has been the go to factor of late for market blame. It's was the weather's fault for everything bad that's happened in the past five years. I'm pretty sure that market analysts and economists can point to a constant cycle where it has either been far too wet, frozen, cold or hot for the consumer to do anything, for job seekers to get jobs, for home buyers or builders to engage. Earnings disappointments has nothing to do with a stagnant, shrinking economy and everything to do with the weather.

Whatever you do just look over here at what the right hand is doing and pay no attention to the left hand. Never mind that analysts are paid to lie to you. They are worse than the MSM at spreading propaganda. Sadly there are few if any repercussions for them being incorrect, and they will just massage or 'revise' their overly optimistic projections if they should ever be wrong.

The STB quarterly earnings rant should be imprinted in your brain by now. The game goes like this - They beat by a penny sending shares soaring. That's all you need to know. STOP right there as an individual investor. Read no further. They beat, all is well, price is up, so go back to bed or buy more shares. What you forgot or did not pay attention to were the lowered revisions prior to earnings season that lowered the number to make that beat possible. They were able to lower the estimates without penalty because they lowered them into a QE supported market where no one gets punished.

What happens if you dig in the numbers you find they missed sales, missed revenues, had massive write offs, took some sort of accounting trick (non-gaap) and laid off a bazillion employees to make the beat possible. Not covered by the MSM in the initial new surrounding the "beat" will be even more layoff announcements and the lowered outlook for future earnings. That' OK though, they beat and that's all you need to know. All is well and the future is bright and rosy. Now go back to sleep.

The truth is QE supports everything, the central banks control all, ZIRP will be here for at least two decades, the markets are manipulated thru HFT and other factors and illegal insider action is more rampant than ever. Analysts really have no clue nor do they care how accurate their numbers really are. They know revisions are coming and that numbers will be moved wherever they need to go. It's all a joke designed to mislead you, to hide the truth and keep you investing in their system.

As for reality - Bundy, commodities and the dollar should be primarily in focus now as we near the end.

On to the lie -

Markets remain very nervous and this should not change. Everyone pretty much sees through the smoke now and reality is bearing down. We've close to some sort of massive jolt that should kick in even more fear and will mark the end. 

Minis 4hr - I adjusted the blue falling channel this morning cause I could make this point fit.

Minis 4hr - closer view. Upper blue channel diag and 1866 are resistance here. What you really need to note is how narrow the upper section of the red rising wedge of death has become. It's only about 56 points from top to bottom here. This does not leave much room for volatility, which is something this market has become accustomed to (as it does nearing or at a top). Support to watch is 1853 then 1844.

Much more to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Easter 04/20/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not sure if I will add to this post or not over the weekend.

Happy Easter to all!

GL and GB!

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Open Weekend Post 04/18-19/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it share it.

We talk a lot about the markets being up into holidays so families will be rejoycing, happy and willing to spend - instead this holiday I ask that you try and as delicately as possible turn your family on to what's going down, the loss of faith and the tyranny we're facing. Maybe share that executive order video below. Sometimes the truth in their face is harder to ignore or play off it it's not coming from your mouth. Share the truth behind the Bundy ranch incident. Find something that you can drive a bit of a wedge into.

I'll have a separate post up for Easter.

Enjoy the holiday. Celebrate it.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts and Easter 04/17/14 SPX /es

Let me see, Easter holiday and opex, those are the equivalent of saying propaganda time and rigged market in the same sentence.

Propaganda time because, as the STB theory holds, they don't want any negative thoughts or discussions invading our homes over the "happy" holiday period. They want us completely distracted, wrapped up in just how frigging well off we are as our portfolios kick ass so we can all take the extra time to go spend moar on our credit cards.

Rigged market, well, with opex today do I really need to explain this any more to the readers of STB? SPY max pain is 186 and relative pain is 192, so we should have a bit moar buying to reach equalization. I will note that it has been a rare occurrence for markets to be approaching max pain from below instead of from well above over the past several years.

As for the rest of the world, it is what it is. We beat it to death here weekly, so let's give it a break today. We all, here at STB at least, know what's going down around the globe. We're all pretty clued in and got the 411 on the coming disaster.

Quick note on Easter -

Hard to not address the subject of sin today. With the apparent rise of satan and his influence of greed and corruption flowing through global governments and financial markets, maybe now more than ever this Easter season needs to be emphasized. Today is Maundy Thursday - the day of the last supper.

I'm gonna pull one part of the Easter story that I feel is most applicable to today - the story of Peter and his denial of the Lord in the most critical time. John 13:38: Then Jesus answered, “Will you really lay down your life for me? Very truly I tell you, before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times!"

Denial seems to be a reoccurring theme here at STB. We often discuss how denial is disgustingly rampant in every corner of our society. As I wrote back in my first post of 2012, God is dead. We've left Him and His ways, and our focus is strictly earthen now with little regard for our intended purpose. It's almost like being Christian gets in the way of our earthly pursuits. It's become a hindrance, because only through greed, bribery and corruption can we attain what we desire. 

We all seem to want to do what we will and then use the get out of hell free card that Jesus gave us at the last minute. We're all taking serious advantage of and abusing this great gift. Peter's denial was a great lesson to us all that apparently we refuse to learn. Heck, we don't even have to suffer what Peter suffered, we just have to live by a few simple rules they set for us to follow, and we can't even do that. 

We're lost, plain and simple. We need to find our way back to God as a nation and as individuals. We better do this in a hurry or our Muslim leader and all the sinners in DC that control this nation are going to destroy this country, the global leader of Christianity. 

Sadly, as I've said before, either the end is coming or we're about to be cast out into the desert to wander for 40 years just like the Jews to pay for our sins. We're about to be cleansed one way of another, so I suggest you all get right with God. Instead of denial, let's make an effort to accept. Accept our mission to do His will and live in His way. You will be doing the world a great favor. 

Funny, I talk about prepping a lot for economic collapse, social unrest and all that, maybe I should not forget to tell you to prep for an even more important event. Happy Easter.

On to the lie - 

Minis 4hr - 1866 may be the number if this 1853 level fails as resistance. All this is happening right above the critical 1844 support resistance line (beige).

Minis 30m - The last time at 1866 at the intersection of pink and blue I correctly screamed reversal. The markets remain in a very dangerous spot. All this has been so far is a retracement. Sure near term resistance (yellow) busted and backtested yesterday, they took back critical 1844 s/r and we do live and function in a completely rigged market, but if the tide has turned then this is another spot where another real reversal is possible. Just keep your heads up.I prefer Monday over today for any real downside potential.Let me add that the STB red diagonal of death is clearly in the picture just below.

Minis 5m - Closer look at price reaction at upper blue channel resistance.

More to come below.

Have a great holiday weekend.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Morning Charts 04/15/14 SPX /es

The "Shocking" Buying Spree Of America's Mysterious Third Largest Treasury Holder Ramps HigherI believe this is possibly going to be directly related to the long called STB external or exogenous "event" that will end it all. 

"In summary: someone, unclear who, operating through Belgium and most likely the Euroclear service (possible but unconfirmed), has added a record $141 billion in Treasurys since December, or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper, bringing the host's total to an unprecedented $341 billion!"

We covered this post briefly in the comments this week when it hit, but it needs to be examined further. Well to the extent that conspiracy theory needs to be established so conspiracy fact can once come true again. The gist of what I'm getting at can be very easily derived from the simple statement, "or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper". Tell me, Belgium, really? 

We discuss rigged and manipulated markets here at STB daily. We were among the first to jump on this bandwagon, embrace the new reality, and wait patiently for conspiracy theory to become a now well documented fact. We've been able to decipher QE and all its iterations, LIBOR and Gold market rigging, algos and HFT, the BLS data manipulation, the false liquidity, and then came the taper. 

Taper, how could the Fed stop funding or supporting the rigged system, give us a line of shit a mile long about a recovery and still manage to run markets to fresh new ATHs wile keeping ZIRP intact? Honestly, does 'how' even matter anymore. We know the CTRL P function key got stuck in the on position about 5 years ago. 

Maybe 'why' is a better question? Well, that's simple to answer as well. They die, their system collapses. There is a reason I have had that specific Andrew Jackson quote at the top of the blog since the beginning, 

"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country." 

and liberties we are losing at an extremely rapid pace as the current administration takes the Patriot Act and rapes the Constitution to further enslave us to support their system. 

Debt - Loss of Liberty - Enslavement

Its all about their control, their greed, their lust for power, global domination, they can't lose. Well, if they stop printing they lose the dollar and it all goes POOF! 

Back to Belgium and the mystery treasury purchases. I've explained the death of the global Ponzi system. They bought our treasuries and we bought everyone else stuff. Over and over this occurred till they stopped buying our treasuries. Then we did not have money to buy stuff. So we had to print to survive. 

Who on earth has this sort of cash and why Belgium? Why was it not hidden better? Who's buying? We will get the answers one day and when we do it will be the end. When we discover the mystery behind the third largest holder of UST and what a farce it is - it all ends. 

On to the lie - 

So they ramped it to close at 1844 and upper yellow channel resistance, and then overnight drifted up thru this resistance point to open up a whole new world of opportunity. wow, what a bunch of crap. Just remember, they can't let the market have a meaningful correction. They took it as deep as they could with this last move south, right to the edge, and have now pulled it back from the edge of the abyss one more time.

Minis 60m - 1853 to 1856 is all they got left stopping them from much higher. They are still awfully close to the danger zone. They are far from out of the woods. Sure, they took back 1844, but I'm not so sure that's not much more than a symbolical move rather than meaningful one. Team manipulation is losing control. 

Everyone is nervous. Remain patient and let the play come to you. Don't force anything here. Remember, nothing 'has to happen'. 

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!