Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/01/12 #SPX #Gold #EUR/USD

I'm already annoyed enough with all the EU bull and the hopium trade, then I see this headline this morning, Is the Facebook IPO the Start of Another Tech Bubble? - CNBC. Yes, some dork gets paid to write shit like that. I may have to totally rework the blog to a hopium induced orgy of green shoot bullshit. How's this sound for a first post - Unicorns Take It Up the Ass And Shit Gold Bricks - Is There One With Your Name On It? I bet it would get a gazillion hits. It would be picked up by the AP and poof I would be the next hottest guest host on CNBS. The whole entitlement crowd would be searching far and wide for their take of the load. It is not St. Patrick's Day, but I think the groundswell looking for the loot would look something like this.

Tech bubble my friggin ass. Seriously? Tech bubble? They actually went there? Get out your checkbooks, put a 4th mortgage on the home, take the kids college savings and stuff it all in, NOW, beat the rush, everyone is gonna get rich, rich, rich! These people piss me off to no end.

The Fed, diplomats, politicians, banksters and the crony capitalists really piss me off as well. If you can't tell I'm about overdue for an emotional release. I may have to put together a full blown old school STB rant for you folks.

Minis 60m - Yellow channel busted and is a long backtest process. There is a possible blue channel down forming. There could also be a right shoulder leading to a 1260 to 1270 range with a couple of neckline options. The heavy red resistance diagonal is drawn off the 1586 and the 1373 tops. That should (should) be the ultimate resistance.

EUR/USD - Channeled down to the green support diag that originates in '02. That lower green diag is the Mendoza line. We all know what a joke the EU is and that the destruction of the failed capitalist experiment is long overdue. STB has for at least a year called for the pair to fall to 35, 25 then 16. I only have one stop left to hit the trifecta. I did miss the pop to 1.49, but when you are trying to forecast against the puppet masters things can't always go your way.

Gold (/yg) - The yellow channel dominated price since '08. I have recently added a larger white channel scenario. I thought gold may have been topping (temporarily) and be preparing for a larger pullback with the descending triangle. See Is Gold About To Collapse? Apparently cooler heads have prevailed and the buying pressure has (deservedly) returned. A few weeks ago when I did the gold post I said if it did not break down and resistance was busted that 1800 would be the next stop. That number still stands here.

Index Comp Chart - This one does not need much commentary.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 01/31/12 #SPX

Well, they managed to close the gap on the minis and calm the seas for the moment. There really is not much to say this morning as we simply wait out the Greek bailout solution. The drama continues and with that drama comes a confused market. Placing bets here does little good when the swing on the outcome has the potential to be wildly dramatic. Add to that Portugal waiting in the wings with both hands out, and the rest of the EU is not in any better shape.

Here is the bottom line, when do the bailouts end? At what point do they give up? It is obvious that austerity is not and will not happen. The tables have been turned with Greece now holding the WMD willing to pull the trigger on its self (and Portugal following). That of course will blow up everything.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/30/12 #SPX

Markets moving from a strengthening state of limbo to a weakening state of limbo as the Greek and EU crisis continues to linger. Linger is not the correct term for an unsolvable crisis, I'm not sure what to call it. Danger still exists for the bears in the form of the Fed stealth market support. The illusion that the debt crisis can be solved is being kept alive by the likes of the peons on CNBS that still talk of hope and that the crisis is only another trillion away from being solved and all will resume as normal. They can throw more money at it, but that solves nothing, and there the crux of the problem lies.

Discussion of the golden cross is very popular today. That instance signifies the dislocation of the markets from reality. I have a feeling that the cross will be looked back on historically as a marker of the spot in time when things were no longer what they appeared to be. That moment where the twilight zone was entered. That moment where the illusion that all was well failed.

SPX 60m - I think this chart is all you need today as it gives the smallest and most recent wedge breakdown inside the potential larger black wedge scenario and all the support and fib targets you need.

Open Weekend Post 01/28-29/12

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge.

Not much here for the post - Tired of reporting on this manipulated BS for the week. Little burned out so taking a break. Need to get away from the news and data for a day or two. I may update and get you some links in the post over the weekend. That means you all get to provide the content if you don't mind. Market based, police state, Ron Paul abuse - pick your poison and let it flow.

Looking forward to Sunday, if the Greeks come up with a solution (don't know why - they have missed every deadline so far and it is apparent no one wants to give them any more money or take a massive haircut) it would be a surprise. I plan on being online Sunday night getting ready for next week, watching the futures and updating the charts.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/27/12 #SPX

Did someone call shenanigans? If not they should have. GDP was not so hot (and you know those numbers are pumped up to make them look better than they actually are). So what happened to all this crap about 2.5% or those considering "raising" estimates or ranges up to 3.5%? Where did all that talk go? Where did all that talk get us? Just another Wall St. shenanigan to get you to believe all is well so you will remain invested. The funny part (well, not so funny) is that not one "analyst" will have their feet held to the fire (they never do) for this bullshit.

Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth | ZeroHedge  "where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth.""

The lies will catch up to them one day, and when that day comes there will be hell to pay. Sadly it will not be just the liars and cheats that will get it in the end, but all of us will be effected

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/26/12 #SPX

I think I have a FOMC hangover. Like I got absolutely pummeled yesterday on hopium and am waking up today wondering what the hell happened while I was passed out. It was a normal day and then the Fed spiked my cocktail. Then this euphoric nightmare happened. The Fed spoke of ZIRP to eternity and conditions that warranted serious monitoring, but thru all the warnings and awful news this angel appeared. I thought it funny she had a pitchfork, horns and a tail, that's meaningless. She brought 'accommodative policy' with her and all of a sudden the skies turned bright, Wall St. rejoiced and all fears of market weakness were immediately erased.

When I finally came to, I realized this was not a hallucination or a dream. It is the new reality. A centrally planned crony capitalist cleptocracy now rules the globe. Nothing matters anymore other than maintaining the markets lofty levels while the wealth transfer from the poor to ultra rich accelerates. Whether right, wrong or indifferent it does not matter.

I've explained this for years now and you have to listen and believe. All that stands between the government/Fed/crony system and the public going totally ape is the illusion that the stock market is healthy and your wealth (what's left of it) is just fine, growing and safe. A failure of the stock market leads to the failure of everything at this point. From the complete pension system to what little privately held wealth is left, they are hanging on by any means possible at this time, cause when the markets go, so does everything else.

I am still taken back by their audacity and the fact that this is actually happening to America. The special interest controlled congress has effectively deregulated everything and the horses are out in the pastures running wild. While we live in a society with ever increasing controls and laws, the crony capitalists represent a Teflon Don (Corzine) that can do what they want without fear of any repercussions. Whatever it takes no matter the cost to keep the system going is the only rule for them now.

Afternoon Delight 01/25/12 - The Beginning of the End

The Feds announcement today and the stock market's reaction to it signaled to me that reality truly no longer exists. Fair, random walk, DOW theory - you can throw it all out the window. For those that have not been on the manipulation train for the past two years and do not believe in such things, I have a feeling that you will not  awaken from your slumber till it is far too late.

What the non-believers see is a rising market and an economy that is "recovering" on most "data" points. What non-believers don't see is reality and that the Fed told them today that all is not well. With the Fed seeing "exceptionally low rates thru 2014" does not sound all that promising does it? "Housing remains depressed" is not good. The Fed reiterating "Significant downside risks" does not sound so hot either. What does ring loudly in the ears of the bulltards is "Fed expects to maintain a 'highly accommodative' monetary policy" and that is all that matters.

The flow of "funds" or "QE" or whatever fiat forces that make it from the Fed to the markets that lift and give the illusion all is well in the markets has blinded (intentionally) the bulltards. The fact that the Fed is monetizing debt at an exponential rate to keep the banks open and the system alive means nothing to the non-believers. They believe that the recovery is real which is the farthest possible position from reality. But the bulltards keep making money and with every tick higher they become more bold in their belief all is well. This is just what "they" want, welcome to the trap.

Charting Apple (AAPL) - Resistance is Strong

I love AAPL and all its products, but all good things must come to an end (or at least a pause at some point). I'm not saying here and now AAPL turns for good or anything like that, but in the next year or so the charts say that the run will end or at least finally begin the topping process.

The argument for this being a blow off top and a near term turn to come is pretty strong technically. (Note this fits with the supposedly impending slide in the equity markets.) Last week I posted Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut? where I warned to wait thru earnings to make any decisions. Well now earnings has come and gone, so is it time to make a big boy decision?

Looking at the charts -

AAPL Daily - Now the daily chart is setting a double negative divergence while price spiked right to and stopped at upper diagonal (black) resistance). Double negs on a daily are never good.