Friday, August 29, 2014

Morning Charts 08/29/2014 SPX /es

Not much to say this morning. Are the Russians invading or not? Global confusion reigns. potus is about to really mess with some things. GDP was raised? Yields are somewhere, anyone seen any yields? They got lost somewhere. Employment ... whatever. Housing up or down, depends on which way the wind is blowing I guess. Holiday ramp ends today. Dollar is in trouble. Shall I continue? I think you know most of the rest of the story. Next week should be very interesting. 

How screwed up are things and are we sure the yield curve is not 'really' inverted at this point? "For the first time in history, based on FRED data, the 30Y constant maturity yield is below the real GDP growth level..."


SPX Daily - I showed the daily doji correlation early yesterday (blue dots). Overthrow and negative divergences are apparent. Doji hammer combos are really not good. The holiday weekend is here. Today and especially Tuesday should be interesting. 



More to come below. 

Have a good holiday weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Morning Charts 08/28/2014 SPX /es

Well, this would be STB "event" worthy - Financially related and out of their control - a real exogenous event -  The Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin: Gazprom Begins Accepting Payment For Oil In Ruble, Yuan  - well, at least the first domino in a much larger scale. slow motion implosion.

"And yet, while both sides declared their operational readiness and eagerness to bypass the dollar entirely, such plans remained purely in the arena of monetary foreplay and the long awaited first shot across the Petrodollar bow was absent.
Until now."

Now is here. Damn good job Obummer, Military Industrial Complex and Fed fascists. You have brought the beginning to the end of the petrodollar - WRC status is now officially on the decline. Like a slow motion train wreck you could see coming years in advance, Nooooooooooooooooo - BLAM! Or, we can liken it to that large bug hitting the windshield of life - SPLAT! O is collectively racking up achievement after achievement on his scorecard for destruction of America. We all know he sucks, but in his world, he's totally kicking ass.


On tot he lie -

There really is a world of shit going down right now -  Take yesterday for example. Another record low volume day chocked full of low lights - I'll let ZH sum it all up - Confidence In Central Planning Saved With Last Second All Time High Ramp. This following the retail trader lockout yesterday. Yields? - uh, don't look now. GDP revision, could it happen?  There is no way they can manage the whirlwind of crap that is swirling around them now. Sure they are masters of their own universe, but it's just that, their universe, that's beginning to crumble. There are just too many balls in the air and things are starting to get dropped. Well, I say there is no way they can manage the situation  - don't forget they closed the "gates" a month or so ago - they do have a contingency plan in place.

I think they left the necessary quotes off the word 'experts' in this post title - Two experts warn correction could total 60%. Let me add that if this market corrects much more than 1% the flood gates will open. It won't stop magically at 60^.

SPX Monthly - 5.....4......3......2.......


STOP! Take another look at that chart. Take a step back and observe this run, where it is in relation to the past two tops. Easy ...... look at it, now you should be either sick to your stomach or really nervous. No bubbles here - valuations are just fine. Fucking insanity is what it is.

STB Xtra  - DOT Proposes Mandating Cars Broadcast Location, Direction and Speed throw this in with the coming mandatory phone cut off system and .... well ..... you know.

Go look at that chart again. Do it.

Wow.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Morning Charts 08/27/2014 SPX /es

This is really important. Back in the weeks leading up to the 4th when I threatened to call a top (and subsequently got lucky I got kidney stones and went on vacation which kept me from calling it - we did get a really large correction though), I constantly ranted on the fact that getting out with your profits, all the way out, as into your mattress or out of the dollar and into alternative assets is what you should be considering. I warned of quick retreats and the dangers of evaporation of gains which was more than evident in late July.

Here we are ramping into the next holiday on a very similar trajectory as that of the 4th, but the divergences and conditions have actually worsened. You need to read this post - The Retail Trader Lockout - Today's 'Market' "Issues" Were Worse Than The Flash Crash. "For 39 minutes today, as we noted earlier, the US stock "market" broke. As Nanex details, a total of 1,384 symbols were affected as 100s of stocks trade with crossed NBBOs, practically eliminating any chance for retail traders to transact." If you think this is a 'one- off' event, you will be mistaken. If you think it is safe to play this thing to the top, and you will have a leisurely exit you may not.

Remember they closed the "gates" a month or so ago allowing them the ability to 'protect' your assets in their vaults. This was your unintended relinquishing control of your assets in their system. Do the words 'Capital Controls' ring a bell? They should ring a gong and start flashing red lights and alarms screaming in your head. When this thing finally cuts loose it's not gong to be any fun. Sure, we all may make hundreds of thousands on the way down (while they allow us to short), but when the TBTF's are failing are they going to allow you to have any of that well waited for cash? What good will it do to be sitting on a 6, 7 or 8 figure account if you can't touch it? 

Want to add to the absurdity - how far are we down the rabbit hole? It Begins: Council On Foreign Relations Proposes That "Central Banks Should Hand Consumers Cash Directly" The CFR must see some very real issues if this is being considered. Wait, we just went from not being able to get cash to having QE directly injected into our wallets? This would be Helicopter Ben times a gazillion? 

Just how bad is this economy if they are contemplating the Keynesian wet dream? If this news gets out to the entitled they won't be able to back off and will have to deliver 'or else' I'm thinking. It's the 'or else' part of that thought that is bothersome. Anyone know where all this cash is gonna come from? Is anyone gonna care if they increase the national debt by a few trillion? I don't think anyone (except the few and brave here on STB) would dare complain.

Want to see what I think is a good representation of what will go down? This by no means is directed racially, it is a skit, it is just a representation of what I think things would look like if they just started writing checks.

Embedded disabled it is so good - I seriously believe this is the end scenario that the Fed and CFR would be dreaming of -

Dave Chappelle Black Money 


On to the lie - 


GDP revision - no way, impossible, like that's never happened before - you know over promise and under deliver - 4% should be upped to double digits if you ask me! Who cares, whatever,  consumer Sentiment is through the roof! All is well. Holiday ramp is in full ramp mode - well, it was. Can't have all those folks at home worried about their retirement assets and investments - hey, I got an idea - why not have the CFR spread a rumor they are gonna start just giving cash to everyone - straight cash homie! That would be awesome!

SPX 60m - Falling off a cliff. Well, the indicators are at least. So, does this run up only resemble the first leg up of the last ramp? Do we have a few weeks of churn to come, or is this thing ready for a stone cold reversal? This puppy ain't going south (even if the market breaks like yesterday) without some sort of threatening news I'm afraid. Who knows, maybe some sort of reality is coming back to the old market?





More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!





Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Morning Charts 08/26/2014 SPX /es

Sort of an old school  STB Afternoon Delight format for you this morning. 

Sad but true - you need to read this if you have not - 10 George Orwell Quotes That Predicted Life In 2014 America. Horrifying is a word that comes to mind. 

It took a study to figure this out? Dumb & Dumber - Scientific Proof That People Are Getting 'Stupider'

You ain't gonna believe this - real life good news! This is not a joke - California’s Firearms Waiting Period Deemed Unconstitutional

Cause it would never happen, but is eye opening to read about -  The New Misery Index -  "Since the Status Quo figured out how to game unemployment and inflation to the point that these metrics are meaningless except as a meta-measure of centralized perception management, the Misery Index has lost its meaning as well."


On to the lie - 

S&P Makes History On Lowest Volume Of The Year - It's not Xmas yet is it? Whatever - just find a holiday and ramp. 

SPX Weekly - This chart is just about to/has/is violating everything. Well, it tried to do its job, and they pulled it back for now. They got a while to the next holiday after this one. Could be time to get ur hardhats out of storage. 



STB Xtra Coverage - 

Hmmmm, I was wondering about this last week, finally getting serious about that Ebola outbreak? Quarantined at gunpoint, desperate and hungry, the ordeal of the West African towns in quarantine because of Ebola epidemic

  • Volunteers are being paid four pounds a day to sterilize and bury bodies of Ebola victims in Kenema, Sierra Leone 
  • Rigorous quarantine measures being used to stop the virus spreading, as those affected reaches 2,615 worldwide
  • In Liberia, soldiers have created weapon-guarded blockades to ensure thousands of residents stay in quarantine
  • Some 20,000 have been left desperate for food as they wait for rationed deliveries to arrive from the government  
  • The enforced quarantines have created ghost towns around the area, as authorities try to stop spread of the virus 

And in the "I feel safe" file - Android App Takes Down Heart of National Weather Service Website


More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, August 25, 2014

Morning Charts 08/25/2014 SPX /es

Baffled by BS, that's about all that's going on now. Never mind that global financial security and dominance hangs in the balance. Greed has led to corruption at the highest levels, and this has led to the web of lies that's all that's left holding everything together now. 

2,000 SPX - focus on that like a hypnotist's golden watch. Good, good, you are getting sleepy now. Just focus on 2,000. What the hypnotists don't tell you is that they never intend on waking you up. They must have you in an unconscious state where you're capable of being programed.They can't allow any independent thinking at this time. Those folks (like us here at STB) are dangerous terrorists.

For all the hot action this morning, following a so far very forgettable Jackson Hole non-event, see S&P 500 To Rise Above 2000 On Hopes Euro Collapse Accelerates, Euro Yields Hit New Records. I'll summarize the post with this quote, "All in all, a typical day in Europe's slow-motion implosion." Add this to France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government and our focus may need to shift overseas and to gold and the dollar. 

I'll add another ZH post to the above that hits on the STB 'Bail on the Lame Duck' meme I've been proposing. This is right in line, a complete and utter throw Obummer under the bus, but this time it's coming from inside his own camp. Cornel West Blasts Obama Is A "Brown-Faced Clinton", A "Post-Traumatic Depression" Will Follow is a pretty damning (accurate) post from someone that was supposedly directly in line with our socialist leader, 

"The thing is, [Obama] posed as a progressive and turned out to be counterfeit. We ended up with a Wall Street presidency, a drone presidency, a national security presidency. The torturers go free. The Wall Street executives go free... we ended up with a brown-faced Clinton. Another opportunist. Another neoliberal opportunist... So you got low-quality black leadership. Al Sharpton is who? He’s a cheerleader for Obama... Eric Holder won’t touch the Wall Street executives; they’re his friends... I think a post-Obama America is an America in post-traumatic depression."
The meltdown is coming. The rats are bailing ship. potus is off "course" (vacation/golf course) and back in DC now where he is most dangerous - especially without Congress. This is when he does his most damage (think executive order). I think Wall St. is terrified of him at this point as they should be. 

potus (notice I do not capitalize this cause I have absolutely no respect for the office at this time) must make waves, and waves he will make. He's got to do something to save face. No telling what that will be, but could a banker go to jail? Is he about to turn his corrupt justice department on the financial wizards of Wall St.? I think this is a real possibility. If he does, you know he'll be JFK'd and BAM his place in history is secured as the nation rips apart at the seams. More on this thought to come.

On to the lie - 

Keep your eye on 2,000. Just watch 2,000. Good, now you are getting seeeeeepy.

Daily SPX - They are about to either have another improbable overthrow (the 6th since January 2013), or the double top with some horrific negative divergences is about to get revenge. Notice that one of my favorite pre-turn indicators (the MACD Histogram) set a lower bar Friday. The indicators definitely did not 'buy' this last ramp. In normal, historical conditions this is a point where I'd be lining up the shorts for entry in a big way. Sadly, anything normal and historical got thrown out with the baby and the bathwater in 2010.



More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, August 22, 2014

Open Weekend Post 08/23-24/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it. I'll do the same. 

I'll update some charts over the weekend. 

Jackson hole still in play. Russia/Ukraine in play. Is ISIS in play for coming 9/11 anniversary? 

That last thought is an interesting thought when summed up like below. 

Gov't Fear Factory: ISIS Is Here, Just in Time for Another 9/11 Anniversary





Thanks for another great week ion the blog. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/22/2014 SPX /es

Jackson Hole, no more, no less, nothing else matters or will move markets from now till this is over. About the only thing that can derail the coming Labor Day ramp will be bad news from the Fed. Lord help the bears if the Fed does everything right. 

It appears all they want us to focus on the interest rate issue. You know, since inflation is such a real concern. Well, inflation is here to stay where it matters as far as consumers are concerned. Of course with 35% of the nation (that's 109 million fyi) on welfare and growing, what does a little real inflation matter? It doesn't matter how you calculate these things anyway, whatever suits your immediate need can be included or excluded from any computation these days. 

Apparently a few have been given the job of being token Hawks. Sorry for them, but someone has to do it. They will take the side some of us need to hear, while the doves will rule the day, please everyone and make the markets rejoice. We've heard it all before, and they can't change their story now. That would be certain suicide. They are trapped. They know it. They will tow the line until the end. 


I have to mention this for a minute - Microbial life found living on the exterior of the International Space Station, say report. You do realize the big ass can of worms this could open up if true, right? For now the Russians claim it, and NASA is denying it. What would you expect from NASA? So, is this part of Russian global politics? Could it really be true? Are we actually a step closer to disclosure? You know that would make me happy. 

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - Not sure what good charts will do between now and Labor day, but you never know. As mentioned, some of the indicators are definitely not buying this ramp. They sniff 2000, it is easily in their sights now. Bottom line is the setup that could come with the next holiday ramp may make the on on the 4th look pale in comparison.


Bullish Percent SPX - Not so happy is it? Funny to see BP crash while the market soars.


We're getting closer.


More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Morning Charts 08/21/2014 SPX /es

Typical of the MSM, if it is not selling or on a "not necessary" or "need to know" list - it does not get reported.

Ebola ran its course in the MSM. It got tired and old and was no longer bringing in the viewers so they went on to Ferguson. Ebola quietly is becoming a very relevant issue. "The crackdown in Liberia comes as authorities around the world are scrambling to stem the worst-ever outbreak of Ebola, with the latest official toll jumping 106 in two days to 1,350 dead." That's from Liberia's Ebola clampdown turns violent as Asia fears new cases. You run into real problems when you don't react to a problem. In this case the authorities in Africa, with the CDC and WHO apparently discounted the potential of a real outbreak. 

"Four residents were injured in Monrovia's West Point slum when soldiers opened fire and used tear gas on crowds as they tried to evacuate a state official and her family from the quarantined quarter." Bottom line is this thing is so out of control they have sealed off a section of a town and are basically saying - you are all going to die - good luck. What sort of response do you think you are going to get in this situation?

Now flights are being banned. Countries are being cut off. Shit's getting real is the best way to describe things. We're not far from this situation causing real economic issues. I guess when the gold mines and towns are directly effected the world will notice. Till then, everything is under control, they promise. 

On to the IS issue. This ran its course through the MSM as well. The truth was never really told about who IS is, how they came to be or got all those fancy American weapons. Well, the truth was not told in the MSM to any real degree that I saw. This is another "need to know" issue. Now that we're finally taking aggression against our creation, the MSM is jumping back in. IS is a big deal as well. Them controlling a major dam in MENA was apparently not an option and we took action. If they had blown that up oil would have really been effected. We can't have that now can we?

Now to Ferguson, will someone please explain to me how the oversight of the officer's face being bashed in before he shot the charging stoned man got left out of the equation? I guess this was "need to know" as well? My favorite thought about the developments of Ferguson - so, they had the funds and time to get all the weapons, gear and armored vehicles in but did not have time to get the video equipment installed on all their cruisers? Really? Priorities?

What happened to that immigration issue? See how quickly they can make things disappear? 

Maybe you should read 7 Things About The Mainstream Media That They Do Not Want You To Know. Or this "Sharyl Attkisson, who also served as a correspondent with CNN, suggested that real investigative journalism is disappearing in mainstream media due to the current editorial trend to push stories in an unnatural direction in order to serve establishment agendas." from Former CBS Reporter Agrees: Mainstream Media Manipulated, Controlled by Establishment. Maybe you need to Google Operation Mockingbird? Oh, and don't forget they wanted to put monitors in newsrooms but got denied (this time). Goebbels would be proud of his creation.

So, I come away from all of this with a lot of why, why now and how questions? Bizarre when you really think about it. The possibilities of conspiracy theory becoming fact are quite real here. I could have taken this post down many roads (that all seem to be joining into one). Eugenics, gun control, media control, total control - sustainable development and Agenda 21 come to mind. Their (UN) damn blueprint is in a friggin website for us all to read on the internet. I warn again, you need to start putting two and two together. Where we're headed is a place we don't want to go. 

On to the lie - 

Guess who got his chartbook back yesterday? Bout time I'd say. I also got the new computer in the office up and running. I've had the kidney stones blasted. No wonder I've been MIA this week. 

Dollar - it is exploding. Does not look like it here, but big move over the past three weeks has to be noted, and so should these wedges on this chart. 




SPX Daily - The move in the dollar here (dashed grey) is a bit more dramatic. Not sure how a strengthening dollar is good for the market (these days). UST may be stabilizing, but its weakness needs to be noted as well. Instability is not good for the Fed. Double top and some (severe) neg divs persist. Are they going for another overthrow? Dangerous times to be playing with firs, which is safer than playing with this market.




More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!