Morning Post 02/02/12 #SPX

There really is not much to talk about unless if you want to speculate how big the haircuts from the Greece deal are going to be? How long till the Greek crisis has some sort of resolution? Can there be resolution? Who's gonna provide the funding? Will they simply default and what are the ramifications of a default? This drama has been going on for several years now. What used to be 1 year periods between funding crisis dropped to 6 months and is now almost a monthly event. At the same time the costs just keep going up with each round of funding. We here at STB knew it was a never ending spiral of debt early in the game, but they had to save Greece for some reason.

All that said, all traders can do is sit and wait. It appears the central planners have learned there are benefits to markets in perpetual limbo that are kept guessing as to whatever crisis resolution of the week is in play. I have a funny feeling thee volume less markets are focusing on the right hand of the magician while they need to see what's happening in the left.

The illusion that the recovery is in full bloom is fading as layoffs, foreclosures, earnings misses (just to mention a few issues) and debt levels continue to soar. The puppet  masters are running out of time and money. Sadly, we as citizens have no control over any of this and are being enslaved to massive amounts of debt as the banks fight for survival.

Minis 60m - Charting the minis has been key to tracking this market since December. As cash struggles to form crisp patterns, the futures have been quite accommodating. The most important item in the chart below is the red resistance diagonal at the top of the chart. That is the upper resistance off the '07 highs.

The 1329 to nailed it on the number and reversed. The yellow channel began in late December. Price appears to be struggling under red resistance as the channel support has finally given way and is in what appears to be a backtest procedure. At this time it appears 1329 top may have been it, but with team manipulation in control, there are no guarantees to upside limits. I'm watching that red diagonal closely. The potential for a blue channel to form is still in play.

Daily SPX - The potential top is set and all we can do now is wait for confirmation. The daily chart below is ready. the question is how long can they keep it up here.

Form of the fall will be key. There have been some recent signs the bears are trying to take the ball and are beginning to assert their will. They need to be assertive in my opinion, but that is a dangerous game when the Fed just throws another trillion at the issue every time there is a hiccup. Remember this is an election year. Patience and form. The markets will let you know when they are ready. They are topping now, I believe upside hers is severely limited.

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 02/01/12 - Ragin At The Machine

Ragin at the machine can get old and tends to wear on you after time (both reading and writing). The emotional swings one goes thru watching your country, future and everything around you permanently relying on intervention to save the day all the while waiting while knowing total implosion is one default away. Remarkable times we live in. Have no fear, STB will won't stop ragin till ACTA or SOPA pull the plug (that is here at least).

The crony capitalist system is in full control, printing when they need it, controlling the government to remove what little roadblock regulations (Dodd/Frank a tragic waste of time) are remaining and the MSM to sell whatever angle needs to be transmitted to the sheeple.

Here is the full control example - For those of you that don't quite "get it", lets start with this video explaining the dire circumstanced that lie behind the Greek /default/bail out deal. Jim does a fantastic job explaining why the system can't fail till it does. Breaking News Ellis Martin Report with Jim Sinclair - YouTube (h/t lurker Susan)

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/01/12 #SPX #Gold #EUR/USD

I'm already annoyed enough with all the EU bull and the hopium trade, then I see this headline this morning, Is the Facebook IPO the Start of Another Tech Bubble? - CNBC. Yes, some dork gets paid to write shit like that. I may have to totally rework the blog to a hopium induced orgy of green shoot bullshit. How's this sound for a first post - Unicorns Take It Up the Ass And Shit Gold Bricks - Is There One With Your Name On It? I bet it would get a gazillion hits. It would be picked up by the AP and poof I would be the next hottest guest host on CNBS. The whole entitlement crowd would be searching far and wide for their take of the load. It is not St. Patrick's Day, but I think the groundswell looking for the loot would look something like this.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 01/31/12 #SPX

Well, they managed to close the gap on the minis and calm the seas for the moment. There really is not much to say this morning as we simply wait out the Greek bailout solution. The drama continues and with that drama comes a confused market. Placing bets here does little good when the swing on the outcome has the potential to be wildly dramatic. Add to that Portugal waiting in the wings with both hands out, and the rest of the EU is not in any better shape.

Here is the bottom line, when do the bailouts end? At what point do they give up? It is obvious that austerity is not and will not happen. The tables have been turned with Greece now holding the WMD willing to pull the trigger on its self (and Portugal following). That of course will blow up everything.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/30/12 #SPX

Markets moving from a strengthening state of limbo to a weakening state of limbo as the Greek and EU crisis continues to linger. Linger is not the correct term for an unsolvable crisis, I'm not sure what to call it. Danger still exists for the bears in the form of the Fed stealth market support. The illusion that the debt crisis can be solved is being kept alive by the likes of the peons on CNBS that still talk of hope and that the crisis is only another trillion away from being solved and all will resume as normal. They can throw more money at it, but that solves nothing, and there the crux of the problem lies.

Discussion of the golden cross is very popular today. That instance signifies the dislocation of the markets from reality. I have a feeling that the cross will be looked back on historically as a marker of the spot in time when things were no longer what they appeared to be. That moment where the twilight zone was entered. That moment where the illusion that all was well failed.

SPX 60m - I think this chart is all you need today as it gives the smallest and most recent wedge breakdown inside the potential larger black wedge scenario and all the support and fib targets you need.

Open Weekend Post 01/28-29/12

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge.

Not much here for the post - Tired of reporting on this manipulated BS for the week. Little burned out so taking a break. Need to get away from the news and data for a day or two. I may update and get you some links in the post over the weekend. That means you all get to provide the content if you don't mind. Market based, police state, Ron Paul abuse - pick your poison and let it flow.

Looking forward to Sunday, if the Greeks come up with a solution (don't know why - they have missed every deadline so far and it is apparent no one wants to give them any more money or take a massive haircut) it would be a surprise. I plan on being online Sunday night getting ready for next week, watching the futures and updating the charts.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/27/12 #SPX

Did someone call shenanigans? If not they should have. GDP was not so hot (and you know those numbers are pumped up to make them look better than they actually are). So what happened to all this crap about 2.5% or those considering "raising" estimates or ranges up to 3.5%? Where did all that talk go? Where did all that talk get us? Just another Wall St. shenanigan to get you to believe all is well so you will remain invested. The funny part (well, not so funny) is that not one "analyst" will have their feet held to the fire (they never do) for this bullshit.

Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth | ZeroHedge  "where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth.""

The lies will catch up to them one day, and when that day comes there will be hell to pay. Sadly it will not be just the liars and cheats that will get it in the end, but all of us will be effected

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/26/12 #SPX

I think I have a FOMC hangover. Like I got absolutely pummeled yesterday on hopium and am waking up today wondering what the hell happened while I was passed out. It was a normal day and then the Fed spiked my cocktail. Then this euphoric nightmare happened. The Fed spoke of ZIRP to eternity and conditions that warranted serious monitoring, but thru all the warnings and awful news this angel appeared. I thought it funny she had a pitchfork, horns and a tail, that's meaningless. She brought 'accommodative policy' with her and all of a sudden the skies turned bright, Wall St. rejoiced and all fears of market weakness were immediately erased.

When I finally came to, I realized this was not a hallucination or a dream. It is the new reality. A centrally planned crony capitalist cleptocracy now rules the globe. Nothing matters anymore other than maintaining the markets lofty levels while the wealth transfer from the poor to ultra rich accelerates. Whether right, wrong or indifferent it does not matter.

I've explained this for years now and you have to listen and believe. All that stands between the government/Fed/crony system and the public going totally ape is the illusion that the stock market is healthy and your wealth (what's left of it) is just fine, growing and safe. A failure of the stock market leads to the failure of everything at this point. From the complete pension system to what little privately held wealth is left, they are hanging on by any means possible at this time, cause when the markets go, so does everything else.

I am still taken back by their audacity and the fact that this is actually happening to America. The special interest controlled congress has effectively deregulated everything and the horses are out in the pastures running wild. While we live in a society with ever increasing controls and laws, the crony capitalists represent a Teflon Don (Corzine) that can do what they want without fear of any repercussions. Whatever it takes no matter the cost to keep the system going is the only rule for them now.