Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Morning Post

OK, tough call time. I think this is 5 of 1 up and 1115 is the target for the top, but with the news this morning I think 2 or 4 down is now here. I do not think a top is near here (although minis are battling with the top bear market trendline) for many reasons, number one being they are still forcing people into equities for return and a rate raise won't come for a while. The markets are the only game in town. This goes against so many things in place IMO. The dollar is going to have to hit some unimaginable numbers to create further strength, OR does the dislocation of the dollar and the markets begin soon signifying the irrational exuberance in the markets.

I think gold is going to top temporarily this week. 

E - minis 60 m - Battle with top trendlines continues. See that yellow box? That is the 50 to 61% retracement zone and it runs nicely with the 1062 support and the lower (blue) P2 support line.

 DXY 60m - Is it in a descending triangle? HERE is one of my big questions. If the minis are in a 2 down bouncing off of strong resistance it appears it will take a 3 (third wave) up to bust that. Do you see a three driver in the dollar chart? It is at support and wedging. The floor in the dollar has me a little timid in calling for a impulsive 3 up. Does the market and the dollar begin their dislocation soon?

SPX chart - The style is called Sunset and I will use this weekly chart to call the sun setting one the SPX. We're missing the divergence in CCI and a larger divergence in RSI IMO.

SPX 60m - Looks like a completed 5 waves up, and the divergences are there. 1081 to 1061 is the target range at this time. That will be refined as we go.

Index comparison chart - Art mentioned the Russell 2000 this am and stole my thunder. Can you say lag?

SPX daily - Day 7 in the blue box - Look for MACD hist to turn today (I thought it would turn yesterday.


UNG - Pulling back. 60m chart looks bad, but the dailys look ok for now. Be careful and set your stops.
EUR/JPY- Should drive down to support at 131.
EUR/USD -Between support and resistance topping.
Gold - I think it is going to have a small pullback very soon. I'll do a post.
Oil - forming a base for a further push higher IMO.

Look for updates during the day.

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GL trading.