Thursday, November 19, 2009

Morning Post

Oh lawdy, look at that DXY run. The only question is at which trendline does it stop? We have had 8 days in the blue box on my SPX daily chart and the avg top has taken 7 to 9 days. I mentioned yesterday that gold was toppy. That last hourly bullish candle on the 60m yesterday that fooled most will be gobbled up at the open this am by some gapage down. Somewhere near 1065 on the minis and the SPX is what I am seeing for now. That number will have to be refined, but it is what I see now. Note the dollar climbs fast and falls slow.

e-mini 60m - Breaking trendline and falling off of resistance. the only caution i see is the 60m indicators are bottoming while the dailys are topping. the daily RSI just topped its divergence trendline and is reversing south now and it appears barring a whipsaw a bear cross on S Sto will happen today.

$DXY 60m - How bout that pop last night. Someone almost called the dxy breakout yesterday to the minute, not sure who that was? Which trendline does it stop at pink or yellow? Based on the indicators of the major indexes I'm guessing yellow as they let the dollar out to run in the yard before putting it back in the dog house.Note again the rapid climbs and the slow falls in the swings.

SPX daily - Will the blue box theory hold? MACD hist has turned (again) and RSI appears weak. S Sto is embedded and at top range levels.

EUR/JPY - this chart needs to be seen.  Sho looks like a pop is in order if you ask me. If the green and yellow TL support crack then the channel is toast and the fall begins.I almost want to call this the end of a B wave of a LARGE ABC corrective. If I am right it tops in the 152 to 155 range.When this puppy hits the upper trendline Mr. Toppy will be in the house IMO.

EUR/USD weekly - The weekly chart emphasizes just how overbought and tired this trade is. The green tendlines are Fib Fans that work really well on this chart, so $1.40 would be the first stop when the fall starts.

I plan on cranking up the shorts on SDS and SRS to 100% after the open at the best entry point I can find. The average fall has been 40 to 60 points and then a two to three day bottoming process. Why not fall to the lower blue trendline on the minis?

Could a top be in? Yes, but I do not think so. This is the first place I would be willing to say TOP. I think this is the beginning of a 3 down before the final 5 up of P2.

Corker rocks.

Updates - 
Gold- Did someone say gold was toppy yesterday? Hmmmmm? Hmmmmm?
UNG - Gonna get stopped out this am as new lows get set. You do not want to know where I think it can go from here.

Oh - did anyone notice how that 500k jobs number was just briefly mentioned and is now just a ho hum subject. Just ignore tha man behind the curtain. This should be front page news that we should be raising hall about, but we all know now that the government is not doing a damn thing but to prop up the market and the TBTF's and could care less about job creation.