Thursday, November 12, 2009

Morning Post

OK, I feel a little better this morning. Let's settle into this 2 or 4 of 5 of C and get this over with. Jobs gave a little pop to futures that were down a little that was immediately taken back. The WMT miss was toally ignored. There may be some pent up demand for either side after the last two days of low volume, or it may just be a lame week with fireworks next week. I hate Steve Liesman. He reminds me of the dude that played Frankenstein in Young Frankenstein, but just not as likable.

E-mini 60m - This chart shows the wave 4 down (green), the first leg of 5 up (yellow) and the breakdown that is either 2 or 4 of 5 of C up. The 1073 38% retracement appears to be a good target at this time for when it turns assuming the NT top is in.

Daily SPX chart - this is the key chart to me. Still a little room to run. Just a little unless something pushes hard and the indicators embed. I expect a red sell line to show up here today or tomorrow. Back to back dojis at a backtest of the C wave lower trendline. Any further upside will be halted near the 1114 upper BB for now. I do not expect it to get there. RSI is flat (again) and should (for the bear case) stop at the divergence line above. This is a great set up for a massive fall sooner than later.

INDU daily -See, I can look at other indexes. See the divergence lines on the indicators? For the bear case hopefully this is a ceiling and INDU turns right here or near here to keep the daily divergences in tact. I added back the BD line (cause has it).

SPX 30m chart - This is a good drilldown showing recent action. It is best compared to the e-mini chart above. Notice the massive divergences in each indicator.


TNX v. SPX - This may be a tell of an impending top as these two are now headed in different directions as TNX heads south. See pink box. 

DXY -  Did DXY break out of its falling wedge only to form a larger channel south?

The VIX is not quite ready to turn even though it has busted out of its falling wedge. The VIX indicators are mixed. DXY is making a good move north and might finally be clear of the falling wedge, but is it in a channel down? It appears there is some more churning to do in the market before the turn. I see limited upside potential at this point and an impending turn south sooner than later if the divergences on the 30 and 60m hold and play out (barring some sort of screwy market actions -LOL, you know what I mean).Volume is dead either because of the holiday or everyone is staying dry leading into opex next week. If the market does not get a pop south soon then opex with either create a further overbought top or a pretty significant pullback.

GL trading.