Sunday, November 22, 2009

LOOK Into The Future(s).

/ES 60m - Minis are up 3.50 at this time (8:22p est). Looks like a completed 5 wave move down and a break up above the upper trendline (sky blue) after completing a 76% retracement of the last wave up. Most are counting this as 1 of 1 of P3 and we are beginning 2 up. I'm not all that sure about that, but I'm not discounting it. 

DXY 60m - Almost completed a 76% retracement of the last move just like the minis. Looks like a good move south coming is possible if the backtest of the Green wedge gives way. Testing the yellow dashed trendline with the sky blue rising wedge support just below.

/CL Lt Sweet Crude daily - Channeling up and now channeling over (pink). The green trendline catches a lot of common tops and bottoms. Red lines are major support. The yellow line is the 38% retracement and the yellow box is the retracement zone (50 to 61%).

/NG daily - Looks like a possible break of the downtrend line afterstalling at a 38% retracement.

/YG Mini gold Futures 60m - BIG GAP UP to the top wedge line (gray rectangle).

EUR/JPY daily - Testing lower support while wedging sideways. If green support gives way it should fall all the way to the lower wedge support.

EUR/USD daily - Riding lower channel support line (yellow channel) being held down buy resistance (upper red). The 50% line of the blue channel is providing support here as well. We'll know for sure soon if the blue channel has taken over or not.

You may want to read this - Bills Yielding Zero as Stocks Soar Make Bernanke’s 1938 Moment - from Bloomberg. 
"For the first time in seven decades, Treasury bills are paying no interest while stocks continue to appreciate -- a divergence in U.S. financial markets that might be perilous if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn’t know all about 1938.
That’s when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 25 percent even as bill rates tumbled to 0.05 percent from 0.45 percent. As 1939 began, stocks began a three-year, 34 percent decline after the Fed increase borrowing costs prematurely to stymie inflation that never materialized.  Sounds like we know the playbook he is using.

GL trading this holiday week. I'm not sure of anything other than continued low volume and a possible push higher. I am a little leery of some sort of surprise announcement during the slower holiday weeks.