Monday, November 30, 2009

Morning Post

The minis are battling the upper bearmarket trendline and the lower P2 bullmarket support line. that battle has to end this week. Futures all over the place. Daily indicators say fall, but they said fall all last week as well. Without the PPT we'd be below 1,000 SPX IMHO. Not sure how long they can prop it up. If it can let go the fall will be really good.

Daily SPX - Stretching the blue box this topping process has now lasted 6 days longer than any other top on this process. Are the bulls toast and have nothing left to get price past this point? Indicators look bad as the divergences are screaming weakness in price at these levels.

/ES daily - This charts is to show you the rising blue wedge (P2 - bull market) and the gray falling terndline (Bear market top line). Since the intersect on 12/08 something has to give here as these two heavyweight trendlines battle it out. One ould tend to think this intersection is a perfect place for a reversal as the two bearish patterns converge. Throw in a few divergences and bingo, the situation for the perfect storm exists.

DXY daily - Pink falling wedge is the inverse of the blue P2 wedge in the minis above. The green trendline seems to be the main cog that is keeping the dollar from running (other than the PPT of course). The daily spikes up seem to begetting bigger indicating fear to me. There may be a really huge one soon.Those divergences to price combined with the inverse ones on the minis really screams reversal soon.

I'm thinking neutral to down this week. The top is most likely in unless we get the super low volume drive like we got last year during the holidays. There is a lot to digest with Dubai and several other newsworthy items out there right now. GL out there and enjoy the holiday season.