Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Minis/SPX Now

UPDATE: DXY cracks upper trendline.  Now can it hold and confirm? E-minis sitting right on support.

E-mini 30m - Lower trendline being tested. It tried, but could not get 'er dun. It is consolidating for some sort of move, and I'm not sure (as a bear) if I smell a rat or not.

SPX 15m - testing lower trendline below and MA resistance above. The lower blue thin trendline held what was a perceived breakdown. See that divergence on CCI? What happened the last time we got one of those on this chart? VIX looks to be at the end of it's rope on this chart.

DXY at support and trending down setting lower highs.Possible a descending triangle?

Conclusion - be patient and wait for the trendlines to crack and get the confirmation. If you are short keep your stops tight. I am still only 50% in SDS and SRS. The daily hist is falling and RSI appears to be rolling over. We need to confirm yesterday's daily dragonfly doji. I believe more downside is expected, but be careful, that may be a descending triangle on the 15m spx. Is the /ES setting up for a pop from here? Volume is absolutely pathetic. The bears may be winning on the scoreboard right now, but they are getting pushed all over the field. I'm cautiously bearish at this time.

UNG update - set new low and I lowered my stops to 8.85.