Not sure if reality is setting in or not, but sure is nice to know that a red number is possible.
Nic Lenoir of ICAP has a guest post on Zero Hedge tonight that is worth a look - How Crazy Can It Get?. Nic covers some interesting points regarding QE and the government backstop of the markets and how the potential for this run up to continue is still a reality. "However as always one must remain cautious because these days capital markets are a mere reflection of government action... as long as government remains unchallenged." We all have a good idea that without QE and stimulus and some creative accounting this market would be toast. With the money in the coffers running out, will the second stimuli come and thus provide the fuel to keep the rally going at which point might just bring in some real sideline money afraid to miss the run? Of course this is the worst thing that could happen LT, but is well worth pointing out to us permabears.
I'll follow that piece up with Mish's Rally in 6th Inning or Top of the 12th? where he expands on Riholtz's comments in Rally May Only Be in 6th or 7th Inning, Ritholtz Says. Read Mish's post as it has many good links and covers both sides. His conclusion, "The key take away from this is that economic fundamentals are very poor, yet no one knows what inning we are really in. The key word in the concept the Rally May Only Be in 6th or 7th Inning, is "May". I spoke with Barry Ritholtz this morning. He also agrees it's also possible this rally is in the top of the 12th, overtime. No one knows for sure. For nimble traders, the difference is moot. For those in buy and hold rather than rental mode, the difference is huge. Please manage your risk accordingly."
Denninger points out a lot of good stuff. One topic I like the best is the false consumption created by the stimulus packages pulling forward purchases thus leaving a black hole in the future. Oops: "Pulled Forward" Demand Really IS False! "All this faux "demand" being generated by the so-called "stimulus" is just doing more damage to the economy - damage that is accruing and will come to the surface with devastating effect."
Naked Capitalism brings us Quelle Surprise! Regulators Starting to Worry Re Bank Commercial Real Estate Exposuresby Yves Smith. "The Fed is poking its nose into the portfolios of some banks, oddly taking great care to say these are NOT stress tests (is that meant to say they are not bogus and actually involve people who might know a tad about the underlying assets?)" Interesting, you mean someone has possibly decided to take the issue seriously? I won't hold my breath.
That is enough for tonight. Why am I presenting the possibilities of further upside? Well, I have bet on the manipulators up till now. Although the charts are nearing the ending patterns all over the place. P/E ratios are ridiculous. Overbought scenarios exist in almost every market. What am I trying to say, well Nic's article in ZH brought me back to reality and reminded me that as long as the government is in control with GS at the helm, they will do whatever the hell they please.
I want to pass along a hearty CONGRATULATIONS to TD and the team at Zero Hedge for their key (IMO) role in SEC Votes Unanimously To Ban Flash Trading, Seek Public Comment. The power of a small group of intelligent people, a few Bloomies and the internet. I guess Tom Brokaw is in total disbelief.
GL trading.
Showing posts with label BDI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BDI. Show all posts
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Don't Buy Into The Hype
I'm gonna keep on pounding the table. It WILL get ugly. IMO uglier than any of us are imagining. When Humpty Dumpty falls off of the wall, I'm willing to bet there will be nothing resembling 'ol Humpty when and if it is able to be put back together again.
One of the coolest posts I have seen this year comes from Zero Hedge. A little elbow grease and computer savvy and they produced Thousands Of Rusting Ship Hulls Are A Fitting Tribute To The Speculative Market Bubble. Care to see how many idle ships there are out there? Want to see the rotting carcass of global trade? The further you go into the article the more astounded you will become.
Since were talking shipping, why not take a look at the BDI. PragCap has IS THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY FORESHADOWING GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEAKNESS?. Well, after looking at the ZH article I would suspect "no shit" would be your initial thought. "The recent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index isn’t simply an anomaly. This excellent report out of ICAP details the very serious hurdles that the shipping industry and the global economy face going forward:". For those of you on the DRYS rocket ride, I'd keep an eye on the rear view mirror.
The Big Picture has Bank Lending Continues to Slip. A nice lending summary that shows just how afraid the banks are to let go of anything right now and that they are actually tightening their grasp (ya think they know what's really happening?). "It was just yesterday that Tim Geithner was lying that banks are constantly increasing lending to consumers. Well, yet another lie refuted. Banks, and not just any banks, but those receiving government bail outs and subsidies, continued constricting lending in July, with total average loan balance outstanding declining by $54 billion from $4,295 billion to $4,241 billion, a 1.3% decline, following a 1.1% decline in June." I guess I should not that this was in ZH and Naked Cap as well. Not sure where it originated.
Calculated Risk brings us Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. A nice little summary exposing the brutal employment environment and just how devastating it will continue to be here and abroad. "Unless government programs for the unemployed are refined, there is a danger that high jobless rates will persist beyond 2010 in advanced economies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Wednesday."
Naked Capitalism has Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear. "Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model that I think bears repeating here. He warns that we are trying to kick the can down the road and this will lead to an even larger bust." Don;t let Obama blow smoke up your ass about the reform BS he's preaching. We all know he and the rest of Washington A) bow to the big banks like he does to Arab leaders and B) any chance of real reform in this environment is impossible cause any sort of reform would lead to the immediate collapse due to the the accounting fraud and valuation methods used to sustain this mess.
While we are on reform, the shit may be about to hit the fan. Ron Paul (the man who should be president IMO) is kicking some regulatory ass and working towards getting his HR 1207 bill passed. Zero Hedge brings us Senate Support For "Audit The Fed" At 25 Co-Sponsors. "With HR 1207 passage now guaranteed in the House, it is time to focus attention on the Senate. As of last count, there were 25 co-sponsors for Sen. Bernie Sanders' S 604 Bill: "The Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009."Below is the list of the 25 who have so far voiced with two third of the American people. As of now, there are still 75 who are siding on behalf of Wall Street." you have to ask yourself, just who are the senators that do not support this bill? Do they have your best interest at heart or theirs?
I'll end on a Denninger rant - WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead. "The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE." I can't agree more.
Look for the Morning Post in the am. This C wave is for real and kicking the bear's asses. The top is coming, it is only a matter of time before something (like regulation, China, Israel, Iraq etc..) steals it away from them. They are buying time now with our future, but sadly the results will not matter. Kind of sad they did not just let it bust in '08.
GL trading.
One of the coolest posts I have seen this year comes from Zero Hedge. A little elbow grease and computer savvy and they produced Thousands Of Rusting Ship Hulls Are A Fitting Tribute To The Speculative Market Bubble. Care to see how many idle ships there are out there? Want to see the rotting carcass of global trade? The further you go into the article the more astounded you will become.
Since were talking shipping, why not take a look at the BDI. PragCap has IS THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY FORESHADOWING GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEAKNESS?. Well, after looking at the ZH article I would suspect "no shit" would be your initial thought. "The recent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index isn’t simply an anomaly. This excellent report out of ICAP details the very serious hurdles that the shipping industry and the global economy face going forward:". For those of you on the DRYS rocket ride, I'd keep an eye on the rear view mirror.
The Big Picture has Bank Lending Continues to Slip. A nice lending summary that shows just how afraid the banks are to let go of anything right now and that they are actually tightening their grasp (ya think they know what's really happening?). "It was just yesterday that Tim Geithner was lying that banks are constantly increasing lending to consumers. Well, yet another lie refuted. Banks, and not just any banks, but those receiving government bail outs and subsidies, continued constricting lending in July, with total average loan balance outstanding declining by $54 billion from $4,295 billion to $4,241 billion, a 1.3% decline, following a 1.1% decline in June." I guess I should not that this was in ZH and Naked Cap as well. Not sure where it originated.
Calculated Risk brings us Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. A nice little summary exposing the brutal employment environment and just how devastating it will continue to be here and abroad. "Unless government programs for the unemployed are refined, there is a danger that high jobless rates will persist beyond 2010 in advanced economies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Wednesday."
Naked Capitalism has Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear. "Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model that I think bears repeating here. He warns that we are trying to kick the can down the road and this will lead to an even larger bust." Don;t let Obama blow smoke up your ass about the reform BS he's preaching. We all know he and the rest of Washington A) bow to the big banks like he does to Arab leaders and B) any chance of real reform in this environment is impossible cause any sort of reform would lead to the immediate collapse due to the the accounting fraud and valuation methods used to sustain this mess.
While we are on reform, the shit may be about to hit the fan. Ron Paul (the man who should be president IMO) is kicking some regulatory ass and working towards getting his HR 1207 bill passed. Zero Hedge brings us Senate Support For "Audit The Fed" At 25 Co-Sponsors. "With HR 1207 passage now guaranteed in the House, it is time to focus attention on the Senate. As of last count, there were 25 co-sponsors for Sen. Bernie Sanders' S 604 Bill: "The Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009."Below is the list of the 25 who have so far voiced with two third of the American people. As of now, there are still 75 who are siding on behalf of Wall Street." you have to ask yourself, just who are the senators that do not support this bill? Do they have your best interest at heart or theirs?
I'll end on a Denninger rant - WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead. "The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE." I can't agree more.
Look for the Morning Post in the am. This C wave is for real and kicking the bear's asses. The top is coming, it is only a matter of time before something (like regulation, China, Israel, Iraq etc..) steals it away from them. They are buying time now with our future, but sadly the results will not matter. Kind of sad they did not just let it bust in '08.
GL trading.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Cry Baby Timmay And Some Other Items
No time tonight for a lot of extras. I clipped some of the best stuff I could find from the usual suspects today. I'd read it from bottom up (it is better that way). I am leaving the Ben rehired off the list, cause it was expected. They would not do anything to disturb the markets now. I do expect him to be fired before O's first and only term is up.
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
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